Facebook Home’s Uniquely Flawed Experience Examined

Facebook announced last week their new experience for Android smartphones, called Facebook Home. This is Facebook’s first major attempt to control more of the phone’s experience without actually selling a phone.   Facebook Home is pre-installed on the HTC First and also users of select HTC and Samsung phones can install it from Google Play.  I primarily use an HTC One X+, installed Facebook Home, and I am sorry to say, the experience was everything I was afraid it would be… a thick and clunky launcher that drains your battery, slows down and gets in the way of everything except Facebook.  I want to share with you my experiences, and based on that and other data points, piece together the implications.  Let me start with some background.

Facebook has received significant investor scrutiny to increase mobile monetization ever since they went public.  Every quarter since they went public, they have been dogged by institutional investors, so the pressure was on Facebook to improve their mobile strategy and execution.  It started with an improved Facebook, Messenger and Camera app (iOS) and it appeared that Facebook was on a little bit of a mobile roll.  Speculation grew that Facebook would in fact, partner with HTC on a “Facebook Phone”, but instead launched Facebook Home.  Let me talk about my experiences…

From the start, Facebook Home looked beautiful, with edge to edge photos of my timeline.  It looked like a combination between XBOX 360 animations and Path simplicity.  If all one wants to do is breeze through timeline and “like” and comment on items, it’s great, but using the other 99 smartphone features the experience starts to unravel.

Swiping my Chat Head up exposes my apps that were in folders or on the top screens.  Note I say “were in folders” because my folders were removed, the apps pulled out and spread out onto four screens that I need to scroll horizontally.  Heck, even Apple learned that phone app icons worked better in folders.  The change is simply confusing. My weather app is now on page four, which defeated the purpose of having it on page one where I wanted it.  If you scroll all the way to left you see “All Apps”, which, of course you scroll vertically to scroll through.  Confused yet? What would really help here is something like Apple’s Spotlight Search.  But hey, Facebook is now at war with Google, so maybe they feel they have to remove search and choose rivalry over usage…. or they assume people don’t have a lot of apps.

After using a non-Facebook app like Pulse Reader, you press the phone’s home button and you are back into Facebook world, which took between 5-10 seconds if over a telephone network.  The screen would be black and a white swirl would spin counter-clockwise, Facebook Home’s version of the hour-glass.  The experience was much better over a WiFi connection. Let’s talk notifications.

In Android, notifications display on the top band of the phone. Facebook Home default installation removes that band, so if you get Twitter, email or low battery notifications, you won’t see them.  Facebook, Instagram, and text notifications show up as Chat Heads.  To see non-Facebook notifications, users must swipe once to see them then swipe twice to pull down the notification menu. If you want to see the status bar, you need to go into Facebook Home settings and click “show status bar”.  Facebook Home also covers up alarms that come through my “Alarm” clock.  You can hear the alarm clock, but you don’t see it and need to plow through menus to snooze or shut it off.  This isn’t what I want to be doing at 5AM.  Let me move to heat and battery life.

Facebook Home is on most of the time and therefore like all active apps, uses power.  I will estimate that my battery life was reduced by 30%.  This is very unscientific test, but what was most telling was the error message that kept popping up. It said, “Battery is low.  The charging current is not enough for device power consumption.  Please switch to AC adapter”.  Problem was is that I was connected to an AC adapter, but my phone and Facebook Home was sucking more power than could be replenished.  As you would expect, Facebook Home heated up my phone, warmer than any game had done.  This is simple physics, but not something you expect from a social media app.   Let me finish off my experience with privacy.

There is no default-privacy with Facebook Home, period.  Your timeline is defaulted “open” for anyone to see.  It is above the lock screen and is just like a screen saver.   Literally, I could walk over to someone’s phone with Facebook Home and watch their timeline…. And “like” and even comment.  Like all Facebook privacy invasions, you can shut this off in settings.

So is it just me who found major issues with Facebook Home?  Absolutely not.  47% people who rated Facebook Home on Google Play gave it a 1 out of 5 stars.  As I dig into the comments, I definitely see most of the issues I outlined below.  This isn’t some anti-Facebook conspiracy as Facebook’s other Android apps receive rave reviews.  As a comparison, Facebook Messenger received 5% one star rating. Net-net, my Facebook Home experiences were shared by many others.  So I have spent a lot of time on the experience, but what about the implications?

As we have seen so many times before with apps like V1 of Apple Maps that received very polarizing rankings, large companies do act as quickly as possible and make quick improvements to their app.  I believe Facebook, who is famous for their all-night hackathons, will move quickly, but with such fundamental and major issues, I’m skeptical they can remove all the issues. Removing folders is a major mistake and Facebook will end up adding those back in or adding some kind of search.  Making it nearly impossible to find your apps isn’t a good way to get the focus on Facebook and without that, many will just uninstall it.

I believe the lagginess, heat generation and the battery life-sucking nature of Facebook Home will be very extremely difficult to fix on current devices like mine without a major architectural change or major sub-optimizations of the code.  Because this most likely won’t get fixed, many people will just uninstall it and move on.

Facebook had an extremely rocky start on a strategically important endeavor.    It demonstrates just how difficult it is to “own” an experience by putting a skin or launcher on top of an operating system.  Facebook will need to go deeper like Amazon did with their own device and experience or sit in “no-man’s land” between themselves, Google, and the handset manufacturers.  While this is a very risky move and not what investors want to hear, Facebook may need to do this to completely monetize mobility.  You will see small baby-steps on this path as Facebook starts to control more of a certain brand’s experience but ultimately Facebook will get out of this middle ground and do their own phone or remain a collection of apps in someone else’s experience.

Why Google Shouldn’t Be Concerned About Facebook Home

Yesterday, Facebook announced “Home”, a skin that runs on top of Android, pulling consumer’s Facebook experience up to literally the lock–screen of the phone. The demos were facebook homefast, fluid, and very different than anything Android has to offer.  A lot of the press coverage ensued that talked about the big threat this could bring to Android.  Techpinion’s own Steve Wildstrom got into the action, too. The drama is fun, but nothing is farther from the truth on how this will play out.  Facebook Home, in its current form, is nothing more than a skin like MotoBlur, Sense and TouchWiz which will encounter the same challenges and consumer push-back and carrier and handset challenges.

Some of theories that were used to justify the big threat to Google went like this:

  • It’s harder to get to native Google search, their bread and butter
  • Friend updates show up on the lock screen, eliminating the need to get into your phone and Google services
  • Home will lead to Android forking, causing more fragmentation and more app incompatibility

The problem is, none of these logic paths end with the destruction of Google or Android. Let’s peel back the onion.

Anything that slows down the experience for a phone will ultimately get disabled or make consumers very unhappy.  Consider the skins that the major manufacturers install.  There isn’t a single one that doesn’t slow down the base experience when compared to a native Nexus phone.  Not a single one.  I doubt that Facebook Home has found some magical way to crack the code on how to place a layer onto a layer on top of an OS and make it fast.  The demos were fast and fluid, but I am highly skeptical that it will actually work this well.  Only Google holds the keys to this as it involves deep access to the kernel of Android, not the base Android APIs. You think Google gave Facebook access to that?  No way. Facebook will be constantly chasing multiple versions of Android, never able to get the experience where they need it, and it will be slow and buggy.

The next issue with Facebook Home is that doesn’t enable the total experience.  Users will be abruptly moving back and forth between Home and the rest of their home, kind of like switching between two different phones. While not as jarring as moving back and forth between Windows 8 Metro and Desktop, it is still like having two different phones. Facebook Home offers Facebook and Instagram capability, Address book, Messenger and even repackages texts.  But what about the other things you want to do with your phone?  Things like searching for the nearest restaurant, driving directions, tweeting, taking pictures, or web search?  Does anyone really think that if Facebook makes those critical usage more difficult to access, consumers will like that?  The promise of Facebook all the time will be extinguished by the complexity of having two experiences or two phones.

Let’s now address control, control of Android and control of the experience on two levels.  Let’s start with Android control. Google controls Android and they can change the terms and conditions as they see fit.  Android isn’t Linux, it’s owned by Google and they can do what they choose with future versions.  If Facebook Home would surprisingly gain popularity, they will simply change an API or a condition of Google Play or the Android license to make life difficult for Facebook.  It’s no different from what Microsoft has done for years on Windows and I don’t see that changing if or when Tizen or Windows 8 becomes more popular.  Let’s look at control of the experience.  Facebook Home has a built-in governor.  The carriers and handset makers know from Apple that those who control the experience hold the keys to the kingdom.  Sure the carriers and handset makers will take Facebook’s revenue share deal and engineering resources, but don’t think for a second they will keep doing it if it starts to get too much traction.    Therefore Facebook Home can only get limited traction or they will get shut down by carriers and handset makers, which forces Facebook to do what they didn’t want to do, which is do their own phone.

In summary, the Facebook Home announcement showed some nice looking demos of Facebook and how the Facebook experience could be improved.  It doesn’t show, however, how the holistic phone experience is improved.  Consumers do more than Facebook on their phones and that’s where Home breaks down.  Consumers don’t want different experiences, they want one connected experience.   Didn’t Apple teach us that? Even technically, Facebook will have challenges even delivering a fast and engaging experience because, like skins, they are constantly chasing a moving target. They have the same access to the APIs as everyone else does, and only Google holds the keys to the kernel.  If Facebook Home ever does get traction, it will be fleeting because Google can and will change something in Android or change the terms and condition to make life difficult.  Carriers and handset makers will gladly take Facebook’s money now, but if it gains too much traction, they will be forced to drop it else lose control. They don’t want two Googles.

Facebook Home will be a niche offering until Facebook can build out a winning set of holistic phone services and apps, but based on control, will ultimately need to get into the phone business, a tall and risk-laden order.

Facebook Home: The Death of Android

Facebook Home Chat-heat (Facebook)As a core operating system, Android is thriving. As a brand–and a user experience–it is dead. Facebook just killed it.

Android’s brand demise has been coming for a long time. Phone makers have been taking advantage of Android’s open architecture to install their own modified versions, such as Samsung’s TouchWiz. The most recent Android launches, the Samsung Galaxy S 4 and the HTC One, have barely mentioned Android. And in announcing Facebook Home, Mark Zuckerberg talked about Android only to say that Facebook was taking advantage of the openness of both Android and the Google Play Store to let anyone with a fairly recent Android phone replace the Android experience with the Facebook Home experience.

I dont know how many people will want Facebook  completely dominating their phone experience. I’m out of  the target demographic by more than a generation, so I’m probably a poor judge. But I’m pretty sure Facebook’s announcement won’t be the last of its sort. Maybe we’ll see a Twitter Home, or a Microsoft Home built around a growing suite of Windows/Skype/Xbox/SkyDrive products.

All of this seems to leave Google in some difficulty. Facebook is a direct competitor to Google’s primary business of delivering customers’ eyeballs to advertisers. Google’s considerable difficulty in monetizing Android just got considerably worse, and things are likely to go downhill from here.

Of course, one thing Google could do, at the risk of being evil, is lock down future releases of Android. That, however, might well be locking the barn door too late. Open source and free (as in speech) versions of Android are out there and Google action might well be viewed as just another fork of Android.

Google never seemed to know just what it wanted to do with Android. Now it may be too late to figure it out.

Holding Apple to a Higher Standard – Solving Texting While Driving

I love my iPhone. I use it all the time. I take it with me everywhere. Yes, everywhere. I have tried and tested numerous smartphones over the years. I can confidently state that you can do no better than the iPhone. However, iPhone – Apple – can do better by us. Too many of us are texting while driving, and dying. More than nine people everyday, in fact. This has to stop.

Yes, it’s easy to claim that people’s foolish behavior is in no way Apple’s fault. Probably, you are right. I don’t care. I hold Apple to a higher standard. I don’t pay a “premium” to purchase Apple products. There is no “Apple tax.” I pay Apple’s higher prices because their products are the best: the best value, the easiest to use, the most intuitive, the most functional.

Apple even promotes this idea. Witness their latest marketing campaign for iPhone. No pretty women in leather jumpsuits, no ninjas, no lasers – no need. Instead, the powerful truth: iPhone is an amazing device, simple to use, and offers a nearly un-ending amount of fun and function for everyone – from anywhere, as their iPhone “Discovery” ad makes plain.

iPhone ad anywhere

iPhone doesn’t merely dominate the U.S. smartphone market, they dominate pretty much every relevant metric for smartphone use and engagement. Tragically, we remain engaged with our iPhones even while driving.

According to a recent AT&T study, nearly half of adult drivers in the U.S. admit to texting while driving. Over 40% of teens admit to texting while driving. Worse, the numbers are rising.

It’s not ignorance causing this. The texters-and-drivers are fully aware of the potentially deadly and devastating consequences of their actions. Doesn’t matter.They text anyway. No doubt they also tweet, check Facebook, choose a playlist and more, all while behind the wheel.

What’s Apple going to do about this?

Yes, I want Apple to do something. Because possibly only Apple can do something to fix this. Apple gave us the smartphone revolution. The iPhone changed everything. We now use the iPhone – and all the copycat smartphones – everywhere we go, no matter the setting, no matter who we are with. This recent IDC study, for example, noted that well over half of all Americans have a smartphone and a vast majority of us reach for our smartphones the moment we wake up and then never put it away. We use them in the movie theater, at the gym, while we are talking to other people in real life. Don’t believe that getting behind the wheel of a car suddenly changes everything, whether it should or not.

No, I do not care if it’s unfair to place any blame for our behavior on Apple. The fact is, we text while driving. We aren’t going to stop. Apple needs to accept some responsibility for what they have wrought. As much as I want a beautiful Apple Television, as much as you may want an iWatch, and as cool as this patented wraparound display iPhone is, none of that should be a priority for Apple until the company makes using the iPhone while driving a car much, much safer proposition. Or impossible. Either way, the problem needs to be fixed, soon.

Possible solutions? Honestly, I don’t know. Perhaps the iPhone will recognize when we are driving and simply stop working. Maybe Apple can require apps to mess up when we are in a moving vehicle – not autocorrect our texts, for example. Maybe Apple engineers can get Siri to work great, all the time, whether for texting, tweeting, checking our calendar, selecting a playlist. I don’t have the answers. That I leave to Apple. And we need the best they can give us.

Slogans, such as from AT&T’s  “It Can Wait” campaign are unlikely to work, I suspect.

it can wait texting

It Can Wait videos admittedly offer some truly heartbreaking stories of people whose lives have been irreparably and profoundly damaged because someone was texting while driving.

Tragic, sad – but how will this help? As AT&T’s own study says, 98% of those who text while driving already know it’s bad.

It was sobering to realize that texting while driving by adults is not only high, it’s really gone up in the last three years.

That quote is from Charlene Lake, AT&T’s senior vice president for public affairs. You think more marketing is the answer? No. Showing tragic stories may shock a few into proper behavior, I don’t doubt. Realistically, however, this is that rare case where we need a technical solution for a cultural problem.

According to TechCrunch:

The Center for Disease Control says that there are an average of nine people killed in texting-related accidents each day, with 1,060 injured in texting-related crashes.

Since texting occupies your eyes, hands, and mind, it’s considered one of the most dangerous distractions on the road, and elevates the risk of a crash to 23 times worse than driving while not distracted.

Nine people killed every single day. Read that again. Nine people die every single day from texting-related accidents. Going to stop what you’re doing now that you know?

I don’t believe you.

Apple gave us the iPhone. It was like nothing ever before. But Apple’s job is not complete. The iPhone is magical and revolutionary. We mortals have not yet learned to fully control its power. We need Apple’s help.

Images taken from Apple’s iPhone “Discover” commercial and AT&T’s “It Can Wait” campaign against texting and driving.

Lytro-Type Cameras for Smartphones Coming Soon?

Lytro fascinated many with the first mass marketed camera that enabled the user to alter the focal point dynamically after thelytro picture was taken. The camera won a lot of awards but also came with some downsides, too. The Lytro’s opening price point was high at $399, was packaged an unorthodox tube form factor, and the output was a very low 1.2MP. Wouldn’t it be great if you could get this kind of experience on your smartphone and at a much higher pixel rate? Believe it or not, that technology is just around the corner.

One of the biggest improvements to the next generation of smartphones nvidia comp photoyou are hearing from smartphone technology providers like Qualcomm, Intel and Nvidia is called “computational photography”. Computational photography enables many improvements to taking pictures with your smartphone. HDR (High Dynamic Range) is improved by enabling an always on, ghost-free, motion-blur-free and even a panoramic experience. DVR-like functionality is also being added where you never miss the shot because the camera is taking the picture before you actually take the picture. Face, smile, and special people detection are also being pulled from higher end digital still cameras and pulled into standard smartphones. These improvements are driven by improvements in the ISP (image signal processor), sensors, and dramatic increases in CPU, GPU and DSP performance.

None of this, however enables a Lytro-like experience because of the kind of focusing mechanism used in today’s smartphones. The focusing mechanism just cannot focus the camera fast enough to pop off 3-5 pictures at different focal lengths in less than a second. All of today’s smartphone cameras use what is called a VCM, or voice coil motor to focus the picture. A VCM is a motor using magnets and electrical pulses to change the position of the lens and harkens all the way back to the days of Alexander Graham Bell. In fact, the original VCM patent goes back to the 1870’s. And you thought you were using the latest in technology.

A disruptive technology called “mems|cam” was announced by DigitalOptics at this year’s Mobile World Congress and I got mems camthe chance to check out its features and functions. The most disruptive feature is its variable focus technology at high mega-pixel rates. Versus the VCM, DigitalOptics demonstrated that it could focus the lens up to 7X faster than the best smartphone cameras on the market today. This means it could take multiple pictures in rapid-fire succession at different focal lengths. Users can choose the picture they really want after the picture is taken. [pullquote]With this technology the industry could be on the precipice of never having an out of focus picture. [/pullquote]

What about the other attributes? Well, the quality is better, it uses 100X less power, and takes up 1/3rd less footprint than other camera assemblies. Sounds too good to be true, right? Not when you dig in and research how DigitalOptics does it.

The mems|cam uses technology recognizable in its name called “MEMS”, or “micro-electromechanical system.” Think of MEMS as tiny machines that have miniaturized almost every other important sensor including gyroscopes, barometers and microphones. These tiny machines are manufactured in a fab just like a microprocessor. They are very small and take a small fraction of power, create less heat, and are more precise versus their large predecessors.

My biggest question isn’t about the technology, but more about why we don’t see smartphones with MEMS-based cameras. First, the technology is being perfected for mass-volume manufacturing and we should see cameras this year with the technology. The market is billions large so you better know how to build them. Then there is the matter of the older-school VCM market. It has a lot to protect and aren’t exactly running to the new technology with open arms. Buggy whip makers were slow to embrace cars, too, until they saw their business crumbling in front of their eyes. This is the scenario I can see coming with this new breed of cameras.

One of the biggest areas of smartphone differentiation is photography. Apple, Samsung, Nokia, LG and HTC all have a great camera experiences in their top 3 marketing list and therefore being perceived as the leader is very important. Now that mems|cam is a possibility for the next generation of cameras, it provides a black and white differentiator for an OEM or ODM. As a strategist and marketer, I would have seen this kind of feature as a huge opportunity. Mems|cam can do something that no other camera can do and it has a black and white reason for doing it better, which is, MEMS technology. I like to call that the “reason to believe” which harkens to “why the clothes are whiter” with the answer being the “magic blue crystals”.

Variable focus technology for smartphones like DigitalOptics mems|cam are a distinct possibility in phones this year and it is something the entire industry should get excited about. Since when has there been such a black and white and demonstrable smart phone differentiator?

Asus FonePad Phone Functionality not as Odd as it Seems

20130226-074657.jpgAfter having spent a few days in Barcelona at this year’s Mobile World Congress, I have had the chance to play around with a few mobile “toys”. A few of these devices caught my eye and the Asus FonePad was interesting not in form factor, but utility. The FonePad is essentially a 7″ Android tablet that makes phone calls. The phone usage model has been the butt of jokes, particularly when holding the tablet u to your face to make a phone call. After seeing the tablet and thinking of future applications, it’s not as silly as it seems.

As a tablet alone, the Asus FonePad is relatively straight forward 7″ Android Jelly bean tablet. The graphics resolution isn’t spectacular at 1,280×800 but in line with other low cost tablets. It also offers storage upgradability, which is a nice feature the Nexus 7 doesn’t offer. The biggest differentiator is the inclusion of a 3G phone, and when priced at $249, provides a real interesting value proposition. This is particularly true as 5″ smartphones can cost $699 unsubsidized.

Let me drill into the phone functionality.

Backup Phone

Too many people focus on the phone functionality as a primary phone…. but it doesn’t have to be the primary phone. The PadFone could make a decent backup phone if your primary has run out of batteries. When I travel, I undoubtedly run out of battery power on my primary device and scramble for a Mophie charger or a power cord. I’d prefer to eject my SIM and put it into my tablet. Sometimes while on a call and while charging, the phone will run out of power and interrupts the call. I’d much rather put my SIM in my tablet.

Primary Phone

It is a little harder to think of the PadFone as your primary device, but there are certain use cases, phone features, and demographics where it cold make sense. Let me dive into those.

Headphone user Many people don’t put the head up to their ear and opt for a headset. I am one of those. I use a high quality cabled headphones. Others prefer Bluetooth enabled headsets. The worst case is that if they lose their headphones they can put the PadFone up to their ear.

Purse or murse carrier– A 7” tablet for most people puts it out of range to comfortably place in a pocket. Some carry 7” in their back pockets or put it in their coat pocket, but most don’t. Anyone who carries a purse or murse (man purse) won’t have an issue, though.

Battery life– Tired of your smartphone running out of batteries? The PadFone gets 9 hours of continuous use, more than a phone, and it makes sense because it has a much larger battery. It could even get more battery life in usage models where the display isn’t lit up because essentially the guts are a phone.

Speakerphone- A good speakerphone typically has two microphones that are spread out to do noise and echo cancellation. The PadPhone is wider than a phone and theoretically could make a much better speakerphone. Tablets also have more area with louder speakers, too, which is better for a speakerphone.

Price– At $249, this is cheaper than almost every smartphone without a subsidy. You would think a larger 7” tablet costs more than a 4-5” phone, but in some cases, it’s the opposite. With more surface area, manufacturers can use less expensive components that are less integrated, cheaper thermal solutions, and even cheaper glass. Smaller and integrated is more expensive. It’s similar to the way desktops were back in the 90’s. They were cheaper than laptops because they could use larger components and were cheaper to assemble.

Summary

More tablets like the Asus PadFone will emerge that blend voice with tablets. Samsung launched the Galaxy 8 that had voice, too. As consumers and business people get more comfortable with this usage model, it will start to become pervasive, particularly as vendors are looking to differentiate their tablets. Just as some said video was to be watched on TVs, not personal media players like the iPod, consumers want to do most of their usage models on multiple devices and not limit themselves, more people will make calls with their tablets. They already make Skype, FaceTime, and Google Hangouts on tablets, so what makes a phone call any different?

 

 

 

The Nvidia Tegra 4i: A Step Forward in Smartphones

Nvidia today announced the Tegra 4i, a smartpone chip with an integrated LTE modem on the same physical die.  This is a follow-on to t4ithe Tegra 4 that was announced at this year’s CES 2013.  Nvidia is making some very bold claims about the Tegra 4i versus Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 800, and while there are no 3rd party benchmarks yet substantiating the performance and efficiency claims, if Nvidia does deliver as promised, they could have something very unique for smartphones.

Today, Qualcomm is the only mobile phone SOC designer who currently offers an integrated LTE solution and they have historically led in different and new communications standards.  Qualcomm also have one of the few ARM architecture licenses, meaning they can optimize their CPU solution as long as they adhere to the ARM instruction set to assure app compatibility. Nvidia has an architecture license for the 64-bit v8 version going forward.  Qualcomm took advantage of integrated LTE in 2012 and were rewarded by their unique offering.  Phone makers, however, rarely like one dominant supplier and that’s where the Nvidia Tegra 4i and the Icera i500 modem come into play.

Let’s dive into the Nvidia Tegra 4i and run down the spec list:

  • Processors: four A9 (latest revision 4) CPUs running at 2.3Ghz plus one power saver core
  • GPU: 60 GPUs (shader units) with Ghz. TBD
  • Modem: integrated i500 LTE solution
  • App-specific processors: camera ISP, video decode, video encode, audio
  • Camera features: similar to the Tegra 4, supporting real-time HDR , tap to track and HDR panorama

With the Tegra 4i, Nvidia will become the only other supplier in 2013 to offer an integrated LTE solution. Integration can mean lower power, lower cost, and smaller package and this is a big deal in itself.  The bigger deal are Nvidia’s performance and efficiency claims and estimates versus Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 800:

  • Tegra 4i is half the die size area of the Qualcomm Snapdragon 800
  • Tegra 4i is 2.7X the CPU performance per mm2 than the Snapdragon 800 on synthetic, integer-based benchmarks
  • Tegra 4i is 1.2X the CPU performance than the Snapdragon 800 on synthetic, integer-based benchmarks

What is absent are GPU, usage model, application and power benchmarks which will need to come later.  Nonetheless, if Nvidia’s estimated do stand true and the synthetic numbers do translate to real-world  usage models, then this is a real step forward for Nvidia. Timing is another area where Qualcomm appears to have an advantage.  Qualcomm said its new silicon would ship in phones in Q3 and Nvidia in Q4.  If this stands true, Nvidia is risking it schedule-wise for the holiday selling season.

So what do we make of the Tegra 4i?  If Nvidia can deliver the goods with an integrated LTE solution at the estimated perfomance levels which extend to real-world usage models, they will have raised their game in smartphones and have the ability to take some share.  Smartphone SOCs are a competitive business, in particular, with continued vertical integration by smartphone makers like Apple, Samsung and Huawei, low-priced SOC vendors like Mediatek delivering the low end, and Intel with a major mobile chip on its shoulder.  Regardless, Nvidia has raised the smartphone SOC stakes for 2013.

BlackBerry Delivers a Product: Now It Has To Sell It

BlackBerry z10 photo (BlackBerry)Gartner analyst Michael Gartenberg nicely summed up the first day of the rest of BlackBerry’s life: “Good launch,” he tweeted. “Now it’s all execution.”

After what seemed like an interminable pregnancy, BlackBerry (the new corporate name; Research In Motion is history) delivered some very nice hardware running an impressive new operating system. The  all-touch Z10 is available immediately in Great Britain, next week in Canada and in March in the U.S. The Q10, with a traditional BlackBerry keyboard, is due in April.

The new products have a lot to offer. The Z10 looks pretty much like  every contemporary  smartphone–a black slab with a 4.2″ display that puts is between the  iPhone 5 and the somewhat bigger run of Android handsets. But it features a unique gesture-driven, messaging-centric operating system that combines some of the better features of the late, lamented webOS and Windows Phone 8 and which is its main selling point. Unlike the painful compromises of previous BlackBerry software, the QNX-based BlackBerry 10 is fully touch-optimized and is fluid and highly responsive. Its gestures take a bit of learning, but not very much.

But the new BlackBerry is not going to sell itself in a world thoroughly dominated by iPhone and Android. And the marketing message at BlackBerry’s Jan. 30 launch event was a bit muddled. It’s an old truism in marketing that if you are trying to sell to everyone, you are targeting no one and the BlackBerry approach seems somewhat unfocused.

One symptom of that was the announcement that Alicia Keyes would be BlackBerry’s  new creative director, but it was far from clear what her task is. Asked about it at a press conference, she offered something vague about increasing its appeal to the entertainment industry and to women. But one market is too narrowand the other too diffuse to be addressed meaningfully. I suspect Keyes will have about as much impact for BlackBerry as the Black-eyed Peas’ will.i.am has had in a similar role at Intel.

To have a chance of success (which I define, at least initially, as beating out Microsoft to become the No. 3 smartphone platform, a definition BlackBerry seems to share), the new phones have to win over several key markets.

The Die-hards. The  core of dedicated BlackBerry users still hanging on to their Bolds and Torches are the lowest-hanging fruit.  BlackBerry has to migrate them to the new platform as quickly as possible. They will be helped in this effort by the fact that radical as the new software is, it maintains a certain essential BlackBerry-ness. An example: I was annoyed by the fact that the mail program asked for confirmation each time  wanted to delete a message. But I found the toggle to turn that off exacty where I, as a longtime BlackBerry user, expected it to be.

The BYOD Crowd. This is a much tougher audience. Corporate IT managers, while grumbling about the traditional cost of BlackBerry services, have always liked having a  platform that offered unified management and proven security. But they had been forced to accept the iPhones and Androids that esxecutives have brought into the system and now must manage a melange of devices. They are prime targets for BlackBerry but winning them over win’t matter un less marketers can also win back the execs who adandoned BlackBerry in the first  place. One thing that will help is BlackBerry Balance, software that devides a device into a secure business partition and an open personal partition. Another, which could win me mover, is the integration of Evernote, the invaluable note-taking cloud service, into it Remember app, a sort of a cross between OneNote and Tripit.

The Message-centric. BlackBerry has always been primarily about messaging and the new versions do not ignore that heritage. While the rest of the system has been greatly beefed up, messaging remains paramount. If you are the sort of person who wants to know right away when an email message or a response to a tweet comes in–and want quick and easy access to it, the new BlackBerry is for you. The BlackBerry Hub, a central feature of the user interface, is the ultimate unified inbox. Marketing built around the BlackBerry’s messaging prowess could win over this audience.

BlackBerry has all the other smartphone bases covered, but not generally in a way that makes it a must have. The supply of available apps, somewhere between 70,000 and 100,000 depending on who was talking and when, is pretty good for the launch of a new system. Most of the  major categories are covered and those that are missing, including Netflix, HBO Go, and Instagram, are rumored to be not that far off. BlackBerry made it relatively easy for developers to port Android apps to BB10, and approach that accounts for about 40% of the initial offerings. The camera is good enough to be competitive, but isn’t a reason anyone will buy a BlackBerry.

One large group of current BlackBerry customers that will not be served by the new phones is the millions of buyers–many in emerging markets–of inexpensive Curves for whom the biggest attraction is BlackBerry Messenger. The Z10 and Q10 are expected to sell for around $200 on a two-year contract in the U.S., and if BlackBerry has plans to come up with a low-cost model for the Curve market, they aren;t talking about it yet.

The bottom line is that BlackBerry has given it a really good shot. To increase their chances of success in a very tough market, they need to refine their message and focus their marketing tightly on the groups they need to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leaving the iPhone- How Windows Phone 8 Stacks Up

Approximately six weeks ago, I made the decision to stop using my iPhone 4s and immerse myself in Android, which I lumia 920did for about a month.  I wrote about that here.  After Android, I wanted to try out Windows Phone 8 for an extended period of time and I want to share my experiences with you. My goal here is provide some insights into how an American, technically astute Apple iPhone user would feel about using Windows Phone 8.  I don’t represent the masses, but do represent the demographics of a an influential block of analysts, press, pundits, etc.  I will talk about the pros, cons, and things that just didn’t matter one way or the other when comparing my iPhone 4s to the Windows Phone 8 powered Nokia Lumia 920.  The 920 is considered by most as the flagship Windows Phone 8 phone and a good representation of the state of the art.

Let’s start out with the Windows Phone 8 (WP8) plusses.

Windows Phone 8 Plusses

Camera: While I know this has more to do with Nokia than WP8, it’s important to talk about it as it’s such a core feature.  To be fair, when I am bragging on iOS, I always talk about the iPhone camera.  Flat out, the 920 has the best camera I have ever used.  It has superior low light capability and nearly every picture was in focus.

Responsiveness:  Amongst Android and iOS, WP8 is by far the most responsive operating system.  Screen flows are elegant and very rarely, if ever, did I feel any stutter.  This says a lot given the immaturity of WP8.  It also says a lot about how helpful restricting true multitasking can be.  I’ll touch on that later.

Live Tiles: Instead of icons, WP8 uses Live Tiles, or large icons that display information without actually having to open the app.  The most useful tiles were mail, calendar, and weather.  It was nice to just look at my phone and get a glance at the latest email and appointment without having to open multiple apps or down-swipe a notifications bar.  Sure, it only saves a few seconds, but our minds amplify time savings, so it feels like a lot more.  It also helps in the car, too where I can glance at my phone at a stop light and see what’s going on.

Stability: Flat out, WP8 never crashed nor did any app I was using.  I find this absolutely amazing, given the immaturity of the OS.  I cannot say the same about iOS 6 or Jelly Bean.

Contact linking: I liked this about webOS and I like it about WP8.  I have close to 7 social media or email accounts. WP8 (like Windows 8/RT) allows you to link contacts together so instead of seeing up to 7 contacts for one person, you see only one.  Some of the Android shells do this, but WP8 is flat-out superior at it.  It’s nice, too, that the linking gets shared to Windows 8 and Windows RT devices.

Calendar and contacts: WP8’s calendar worked really well with Google services, but not as well as Android, of course.  It supported adding attendees, accepting meeting notices from Outlook, etc.  Contact sharing with Google was flawless.   This is an area of intense weakness for iOS and I hope to see improve quickly.

The “back” button: Having a back button may sound like a nit, but it is a genuine time saver versus iOS.  iOS requires the double tap on the home button and a selection of the app versus just tapping the back button.  I was surprised at just how much I liked this.  When you hold the back button down for a second, your a screenshot of your last used apps pops up and I really liked that.

Internet Explorer browser: Very simply, the browser worked on all sites and was very fast, and in fact it felt faster than both Safari and even Chrome.  That’s saying a lot.

Full email search: WP8 allows me to do a full search of my email, where iOS just enables people and email title search.

Spell check: Unlike iOS and Android, WP8 gets it right for me more times than not and automatically makes the change.  This was one of those “wow I didn’t know it could get better” features.

People App: This app is unique in that you can organize people into groups, like Favorites and Family and see real-time info on them, like their social media updates, uploaded pictures and comments.

Full photo and video uploads: Unlike iCloud and iOS, WP8 uploads full size photos and even videos to SkyDrive.  To keep battery and broadband fees to a minimum, WP8 gives you the option to only upload over WiFi.  This is awesome as I never need to connect my phone to my PC, which I could never say about my iPhone.

Now let’s move onto the areas that didn’t make a difference one way or another.

Windows Phone 8 Neutrals

Copy-Paste: Unlike Android, WP8’s  copy and paste worked nearly as good as iOS.

MS Office: With WP8, MS Office files can be flawlessly read and Word and Excel can be editred.  As iOS has decent Office “read” capabilities, this brought nothing to the table, so I am indifferent.  When I was doing more “Powerpointing” in corporate America, iOS did make grievous mistakes with many Powerpoint files.  Seriously, who edits Excel on their phone?

Multitasking: As far as I can tell, there is no way for the user to control multitasking at any fine grain level.  Mail, calendar, and social media will sync in the background, but many apps won’t, and it’s aggravating.  Therefore, I must have the following apps open to sync data: Evernote, SlapDash Podcasts, and even Skydrive.  This is a “neutral” because iPhone isn’t much better with user controlled multitasking.

Windows Phone 8 Minuses

“Page 1” Apps: WP8 lacks in many cases the apps and the depth of apps I want on my phone.  First, there were many apps that were just as good and in some cases better than iOS.  Facebook, LinkedIn, E*Trade, Netflix and Evernote fall into that category.   Many of my preferred apps lacked full functionality, though.  These were apps like Epicurious, Flixster, Yelp and ESPN ScoreCenter which didn’t enable me to login and import saved data or settings.  YouTube wouldn’t let me even upload a video.  The most difficult thing to deal with was some of the lack of my page 1 apps.  These are apps like WatchESPN, Neat, Nike Run, HootSuite, Instagram, Google+, TripCase, Waze, MailOnline, TWC TV, and Pulse.  I use these daily on my iPhone and they were really hard to live without.

App organization: There are two distinct places consumers can organize tiles; the home screen and app screen.  The app screen is a vertical string of apps that is endless.  If you’re like me and use over 100 apps you are left with a string of endless apps to wade through.   This is ridiculous and needs to change. (UPDATE: In app window, holding down a letter will bring up the alphabet where users can pick apps that start with that letter.  Still harder than folders IMO.)

Lack of synced bookmarks: I liked the speed and compatibility of Internet Explorer, but the lack of synced bookmarks felt archaic. In fact, there are no folders for favorites and like lack of an organizing principle for apps, leaves a huge, long and unmanageable list of links.

Phone search: I really like the phone Spotlight Search on iOS.  WP8 doesn’t have the capability and I missed it.  What compounds the problem is that there aren’t app folders and I want to search for installed apps.  Contacts were tough too, because it could take three clicks to search on a contact as I need to go into People, find “all” people, press magnifying glass, then type in person’s name.  The frustrating this is that one of three dedicated bezel buttons is search, but it’s just a Bing search.  I wish they would change that to a phone search.

Maps and nav: Apple Maps severely disappointed me because of the inaccurate or incomplete data, but it had a killer experience. Nokia Maps was the opposite; decent data with a challenging experience.  I must caveat that Nokia maps is still beta and it shows. First, most of the times, GPS got stuck for about 10 seconds before it could tell me where I was.  That was more of my impatience, but it felt forever when you’re trying to find out where you are or how to get some place.

About 25% of the time when I did go to turn-by-turn directions, the phone got confused and wouldn’t do turn-by-turn or any navigation.  It would just sit there, confused.  Finally, when voice directions did say where to go, Nokia maps doesn’t give street names, it uses generics. It will say, “turn right in 1 mile”, not something like “turn right in 1 mile at Main Street.”  This was very, very difficult when you’re driving 65 mph on the highway in a big city when exits are packed on top of each other.  I missed many turns because of it.  I hope during their beta period, Nokia saw others recognizes this and made appropriate changes.

Switching to Windows 8?

I was really impressed with WP8 “feel”, stability and the camera.  Yes, that camera was a real differentiator.  The challenge is there are way too many shortcomings with lack of apps, maps & navigation, and browser bookmark sync for me to make a switch.  When some of the basics are there, I would reconsider, but then again, there will be a new set of “basics” in a year.  I won’t switch from iOS to Windows Phone 8 for now but will now likely switch to Android.  I want to see what Mobile World Congress before I lock into a phone and I will keep you posted on that.

Leaving the iPhone- How Android Stacks Up

About a month ago, I made the decision to stop using my iPhone 4s with the possible outcome of leaving the iPhone for an Android or motorola-razriWindows phone for an extended period of time.  I don’t want to use the term “never”, because that’s limiting.  As promised, I wanted to share with you my experiences with Android so that you may get a deeper insight into how other users may feel and respond to their next phone purchase and experience.  I want to reinforce that this is, at best, a qualitative research study of one individual; me. I possibly represent a market segment of U.S. mid 40-something males that is technically savvy and enthusiastic about technology.  I will talk about the pros, cons, and things that just didn’t matter one way or the other when comparing my iPhone 4s to Android phones.

I used three Android phones, bouncing back and forth between them to experience  Android.  The three phones were: Samsung Nexus, Motorola Razr HD i, and the HTC One X+ which were provided to me to use.  Let’s start out with the Android phone plusses.

Android Phone Plusses

Instant access to info and controls via Widgets: With Android Widgets I can look at my most often accessed information without even opening up an app.  My most often used app widgets were Mail, Calendar, sports scores, weather, social media updates, and TripIt.  The neat part is that you can actually manipulate the data in the app and there more often than not, don’t need to open the app. This is a big time saver.  My Android control widgets were display settings and hotspot, so instead of three clicks, it takes one.

Free hotspot: This one is very straight-forward.  On AT&T and my iPhone, I needed to pay extra for a Wi-Fi hotspot and with my Android phones I did not.

Easier content sharing: Sharing content like photos to multiple social media sites is very easy.  With my iPhone I need to open the app then I can pull in content like a photo or video with the exceptions of Facebook and Twitter.  With my Android phones I can share a photo or web link to Instagram, Dropbox, Evernote, Sugarsync, Foursquare, Google+, Google Drive, Flickr, HootSuite, Messenger, Picasa, Skitch, SkyDrive, Skype, WordPress, and HTC_One_X_Plusmany more.

Google Voice: As I said in my earlier post, I drive a lot and need speech to text for notes and texts that works really well.  Google Voice just works where Siri does not work well for me.

Flawless sync with Google Services: Google Services like Mail, Calendar, Tasks and maps work flawlessly. They don’t work well or aren’t as feature rich with my iPhone.  Contacts are a great example as my iPhone contacts would not sync with my Google contacts without the need of another app.  We don’t need to talk about Google maps.

Cool tools: I really like some of the very cool tools that come with the phones.  Motorola Smart Actions makes suggestions to automate task like personalizing context aware situations like while sleeping, at home and at work.  HTC has a power saver toggle that really did save power and a very detailed “usage” tab that showed me exactly how much data each app used and would send me warnings based on my pre-set conditions.

Multitasking control: Android lets the user control everything about multitasking, more like a PC or Mac.  This came in real handy when uploading photos in the background to cloud storage or social media sites.  It also works great to have a fully refreshed phone with the latest data from Pulse, Podcasts, and Evernote.  To not kill power, many of the apps give you a choice to only upload during WiFi connection or when plugged in.  Sugarsync is smart enough to stop uploading photos when the battery gets to 25%. My iPhone just doesn’t do this.

Chrome browser: This isn’t the WebKit browser in iOS, it’s the real thing, and I can sync my PCs bookmarks, passwords, and tabs from other Chrome browsers.  Yes, I could do this with Safari, but I preferred Chrome for my PC and Mac browser.

Google Now: I am very impressed with Google Now, primarily the search based cards. It is very helpful to be on a trip out of town and Google Now displays when my plane leaves, the gate, the weather there, hotel details without entering any data.  It’s indexing my emails which a bit creepy, but adds value so I let it do it.

Now let’s move onto the areas that didn’t make a difference one way or another.

Android Phone Neutrals

Same “Page 1” apps: Unlike Android of yesterday, Jelly Bean offer the most popular and trendy apps, they aren’t “ugly” anymore and have very similar feature sets. One exception, Evernote, is still very ugly compared to iOS, but that’s about it.  All my other “page 1” apps look and run just fine.

Feel and flow: I’ve used every version of Android since inception and none ever “felt” as good as iOS… until Jelly Bean.  Project Butter made a very big experiential difference.

Battery life: I didn’t feel and more or less battery life with any of the phones, except the Motorola Razr HD i, which seemed to last longer.  There are a 100 review web sites that can give you exact figures, so I will stop there.

Android Phone Minuses

Camera: However many people told me about the great Android cameras, they all felt short to my iPhone, except in some flash circumstances, where images were white-washed.  All my Android cameras took photos quicker, had more settings, but the pictures never looked as good as the iPhone 4s.

Mail: This is a tough one, one that I waffle on, because I spent the last few years on an iPhone.  I prefer iOS email to Android for reasons that are hard to explain.  Android mail doesn’t look or feel right to me and it’s too hard to find a new folder.  This may have something to do with the fact I have four email accounts, but that’s the way I operate.  The only exceptions are swipes, which you can customize in Android to do what you want, like delete.

Courtesy links: This isn’t the official name in iOS, but I dearly miss the “courtesy links”.  These are the links to addresses, phone numbers in mail, calendar, and web pages that allow you to do something.  Adding a name embedded in an email is torture in Android and pure bliss in iOS.

Copy-Paste: This, like mail, I am a bit torn.  Copying and pasting, a very basic function, and is more challenging for me on Android.  I don’t know if it’s because I spent most of my time on the iPhone the last few years but I get frustrated with Android.

Group text: Unlike the iPhone that presents group texts in order and in-context, Android presented texts to me in an out of order, jumbled way.  We’re 4 years into Android and I don’t understand how this can be.  Android can do better than this.

Next Stop, Windows Phone 8

I really did like the Android phones and none of the minuses turned me off enough to run immediately back to my iPhone.  After using Android phones for the last few weeks, I can see very much why so many people gravitate to it.  It’s more than low price; many of the experiences I found much more enjoyable than my iPhone.  Android felt so more empowering, too, as I am in control of the phone, not the manufacturer.  As my iPhone 4s is sitting in my drawer collecting dust for a while, I’ll be taking the Nokia Lumia 920 and Windows Phone 8 for a deeper spin.  I’ll keep you posted.

A Few of My Favorite and Significant Products of 2012

One great thing about a tech industry in transition is that manufacturers amp up the amount and breadth of the products they announce. 2012 was a transition year for PCs, smartphones, and tablets, and there were so very many great options to choose from.

My selection criteria for my favorite, significant products was simple:

  • I personally used for extended periods of time as my prime device.
  • It brought something significantly new or better variable to the table.
  • It delivered a good or great experience.

Google Nexus 7 Tablet

The Nexus 7 tablet was announced at Google I/O 2012 at $199 when the going rate of a 10″ tablet was $399. The Nexus 7 sported a 7″ display, NVIDIA quad core Tegra 3 silicon, and Jelly Bean. The tablet leveraged Android’s phone ecosystem, not Android’s anemic 10″ ecosystem. The most significant thing the Nexus 7 brought to the table was “feel.” It felt great, almost as good as iOS, through the “Butter” enhancements, and that is something Apple had the advantage on for literally years over Android. I still use my Nexus 7 on an almost daily basis.

Apple iPad 3 Tablet with HumanToolz iPad Stand

I was a daily user of my iPad 1 and iPad 2 so it made sense to explore the iPad 3. Even though it was thicker and heavier than the iPad 2, I bought one because of the Retina Display. The display was simply awesome, particularly for a near-sighted person as I. The iPad 3 also ushered in the beginning of the public “graphics wars”, where Apple mistakenly went after NVIDIA’s Tegra 3 using some synthetic graphics benchmarks. This made Apple look weak and defensive and NVIDIA look strong.

My kids are now the primary users of the iPad 3.

The best stand for the iPad 3 was the HumanToolz iPad Stand, which equaled the iPad in design and mechanical craftsmanship. The forged aluminum stand fits like a glove through a combination of connectors, magnets and pads, and enables the user to use the iPad in about any angle or configuration.

Dell XPS 12 Touch Ultrabook

I was an advocate for hybrids and convertibles way before it was cool 🙂 and am still one today. The Dell XPS 12 is a touch Ultrabook whose display swivels to become a tablet. Make no mistake, as in the name, the XPS 12 is an Ultrabook, tablet second. Mine sports an Intel Core i7, 8GB RAM and 256MB of flash drive storage, so it’s no lightweight on performance and, like any Macbook, it’s a bit heavy, between an Air and Pro. As a tablet, it is heavier of course than a tablet-only device or Microsoft Surface, but until 2013 and Intel Haswell, you can’t have everything.

Motorola Razr I Smartphone

The Razr I is the first big-brand phone with Intel-inside and with a unique industrial design. The phone was fast and got really good if not great battery life. Some of the unique things I noticed was just how fast the phone was on basic tasks and just how precise it was on speech to text and web browsing, things that are important to me.

The Razr I proved many things for Intel:

  • X86 can be power-efficient for phones and tablets. In fact, tests at Anandtech show the Intel besting ARM-based silicon in power.
  • X86 at low power can deliver the required performance
  • Intel’s risky strategy of cloud recompiling or on-the-fly translations of ARM-based apps worked
  • Intel can effectively design, develop and manufacture mobile SOCs with third part IP (Silicon Hive and Imagination)
  • Respected, global brands will engage with Intel on phones

The Razr I wasn’t perfect as it supported 4G HSPA+ (not LTE), did not yet have Jelly bean but is on its way (up to Motorola), and I’d like a little better camera. The Razr I is one of three phones I carry.

Nokia Lumia 920

I got this late in the season so I’ve only had a few weeks with it. The reason it makes the list is its camera and overall experience. The camera, quite frankly, is the absolute best I have used so far. Low light really is amazing, and unlike my iPhone 4S pics, doesn’t white out while using a flash. Its physical optical image stabilization is part of the magic, the other part is finely tuned software connected to its sensor and ISP. The overall experience is elegant, and in my opinion, more elegant than on iOS, but then again more limiting, too. True multitasking is somthing of a black box as you’re not quite sure what is happening or can happen in the background. I never noticed a single lag which I will attribute to Qualcomm silicon, Windows Phone 8 integration, and the minimal allowable multitasking.

The only major downside is the absence of some of my “front-page apps” without replacements like TWC TV, WatchESPN, Instagram, Pulse, Sugarsync, TripCase, and Expedia. The Lumia 920 is one of three phones I carry.

HTC One X+ Smartphone

Like the 920, I got HTC One X+ late in the season, but it deserves to go on this list because it “feels” like the fastest phone I’ve ever used and it has really good battery life. If the phone sounds familiar, it is. It’s basically the HTC One X with NVIDIA quad core Tegra 3 clocked at 1.7ghz instead of a Qualcomm Snapdragon. Ironically in a chip sense, it does include Qualcomm LTE wireless.

What do I mean by fast? If you’ve used Android, you know that more things you allow in the background, more widgets used, your phone starts to bog down. I loaded the HTC One X+ to the absolute max and it didn’t skip a beat. Very impressive. With LTE in Austin, I got 53Mbps down on AT&T, which blew me away, too. With all the speed came good battery life, too. HTC claims on their web site that it actually gets “up to 50% better battery life than the HTC One X”. I am skeptical about sweeping claims like that as I want to see the details, but the phone did deliver very good battery life. The HTC One X+is one of three phones I carry.

Honorable Mention: ASUS VivoBook U38N Ultrathin

This ultrathin came in last week, so I haven’t been able to take it through its full paces, but I am initially so impressed that it makes it on my list. Why? Think brushed aluminum, thin, light, AMD Trinity quad core APU, AMD discrete graphics, 1080P IPS touch-display with Windows 8, gesture touchpad, back-lit keyboard…. low price. You get the idea. I will drill down into this the more time I spend with it, but this is a very nice laptop.

So these are my favorite, most significant products that I have used in 2012. Products that brought something entirely new to the table and ones that provided a good or great experience. I would love to hear your comments below.

 

Patents: That Word Does Not Mean What You Think It Means

USPTO logo

Yesterday, the internet was abuzz with reports that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office had “rejected” another Apple iPhone patent. Many commentators jumped to the conclusion that, since this patent figured heavily in Apple’s recent legal victory in a case claiming infringement by Samsung, Apple had been dealt a heavy legal blow. But, it turns out, not so fast. Patent law speaks its own language in which you have to forget about the plain English meaning of words.

What are we to make of a statement like this, in the USPTO finding?

No rejection of the claims, as presently written, are made in this Office action based on the  Hill and Ullmann references because the teachings of those references are essentially cumulative  to the teachings cited in the rejections below. However, in order for claims to be found patentable and/or confirmed in this ex parte reexamination proceeding, the claims must be patentable over every prior art patent and printed publication cited in the order granting the request.

I think I know what all those words mean, but the passage as a whole reads like something from a nightmare version of a reading comprehension test. I am not a patent expert, and I count on folks like the Verge’s Nilay Patel and Matt Macari, intellectual property lawyers by training, to illuminate the dark ways of patent law. And, as Macari pointed out with regard to a similar USPTO ruling on another Apple patent, the rejection of claims following a request from reexamination, also known as a “first Office action,” is the first step in a very long process.

In this case, the challenge was filed by Samsung and, as is the normal practice, its challenge was considered without any response from Apple (that’s what ex parte means.) Macari cites USPTO statistics that such request are granted over 90% of the time. Apple now gets to come in an defend its patent before the UYSPTO–Samsung isn’t actually a party to the case. In a bit under 70% of such cases, some of the claims of the original patent are invalidated in reexamination while the rest are upheld; the patent in question contains 21 claims. About 11% of the time, all claims are rejected, leaving the patent invalid.

Although the USPTO reconsideration order came to light because Samsung filed it as part of its attempt to change or overturn the recent judgment in favor  of Apple, the action is not light to have any impact on that case, at least not any time soon. Under U.S. law, a patent is presumed valid until the USPTO says otherwise. At least for now, the reexamination order should not change anything.

 

Leaving the iPhone

I have used the iPhone since the 3G as my primary phone and have enjoyed my experience very much.  It was, quite frankly, ahead of its time in almost every conceivable way.  It “felt” better, had more apps, better apps, great camera and a built-in iPod.  Better in every way until now.  I am strongly considering leaving the iPhone in favor of either Android or Windows Phone and I want to tell you why. Interestingly, since I’ve had my iPhone, I have also carried an Android and Windows Phone so I could make weekly if not daily experience comparisons.  Things have changed and it could be time to move on.  I am not saying I dislike iOS or the iPhone- I do, it’s just that it just feels too restrictive and not as so far ahead as it once was.

“Feel” is Good Enough

With Android’s “Butter” introduced at this year’s Google I/O, the feel is nearly as good as iOS.  That says a lot, because as far reaching as the first Android phone, I could feel a major difference.  When I mean “feel”, it is the responsiveness that the phone has when you touch it, primarily the swipes, and the responsiveness to those swipes.  As for Windows Phone, it has always felt good and responsive to touches and swipes.

Key Apps Cross-Platform Apps Nearly as Good

There was a recent time when the newest apps were only available on the iPhone.  I don’t know if I am just becoming more settled (read:old) with my apps, but my front page apps have remained constant for a couple of years.  As those apps became available on Android, there was the quality conversation.  Those first Android apps were, well, ugly.  My front-page apps like Evernote for Android and Windows Phone are still ugly but they don’t keep me from doing my job or having less fun.  There is much less of a time delay or quality delta between Android and iOS apps than there ever was before.

Sharing Content Still Difficult

Let me just say up front that I am not the typical consumer as it comes to sharing information on social media networks.  I share a lot and I do it on a lot of networks.  Apple has been very particular in how it wants to allow you to share from the point of content.  Let’s look at sharing a news article.

On my iPhone from Safari, when I get to the page I want to share socially, I have two choices, Twitter and Facebook.  When I do share with those networks, a beautiful clipping emerges and there is space to say some things about it.  The problem is, none of the contextual info shows up like the website and the article name or author. That means I need to type in the article title.  This is a pain.  Alternatively on Windows Phone and Android, I have as many networks to share to as I subscribe to, and in my case this takes Twitter and Facebook and adds LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest. More times than not, it will take the article title and place it in the “share” as content.

I can still share that news article on LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest on my iPhone, but I need to copy the URL of the article, open the LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest  apps, paste the URL into the three apps, add the titles, then my own content, then post.  This is a whole lot of time I just don’t have.

Speech to Text and Control

I drive nearly two hours a day as I have three kids who are very active in sports.  One of my daughters is involved in club volleyball, basketball, equestrian, and cheer, all at the same time.  So my wife and I are in the car a lot.  Therefore, I need speech to text and speech command and control to actually work well.

Research shows that in general, consumers are happy with Siri doing very basic things like voice dialing.  My personal research has shown that Siri does not work very well at all under many circumstances.  With me, it is flaky and rarely works well.  When it does work well, it is like Siri is a different person.  I just don’t understand the massive variability.  We have good networks in Austin, I am originally from the Midwest which is considered at least by news agencies as having no accent, and I use the highest quality microphones.

Android speech capabilities are nothing short of incredible, but it takes the right phone.  The Motorola Razr I is one of the best as it accurately does speech to text over speakerphone at an unscientific 95% hit rate.  I talk, it types. With Google Now on my Samsung Nexus 3, it adds natural language to get very specific data points, very similar to Siri.  All in all, Siri is more sophisticated on paper, but does not work for me at all.  It is unfortunate, because Siri was the reason I bought the 4s.

Microsoft has been disappointing on this front so far given they have been doing speech control for around 15 years and the fact the Xbox works so well in a challenging acoustic and compute environment.

Newer or Different Technology

Apple actually has been ahead with its technologies and doesn’t get enough credit for it.  Apple has been ahead at times technologically on displays, SOCs, home sharing (AirPlay) and cameras. They have chosen not to lead technologically at times on wireless speed, WLAN speed, PAN, pen interaction, external storage, modularity, and notifications. I have been OK trading off newer or different technology for the better “feel”, better apps, better camras and iOS reliability, but with Android caught up in many areas and with Windows Phone on the move, it’s a more complex decision now.

Let’s take NFC as an example.  I was very skeptical about NFC for a myriad of reasons, particularly around NFC payments… that was until ISIS came to Austin.  I’m in my local Jamba Juice, and there it is, ISIS payments accepted.  At that point, I wanted it as I routinely forget my wallet and when I do remember, my debit cards get used so much it rarely scans correctly. I want NFC as a backup.  The Samsung commercials are funny and I do like playing around with sharing pictures and web pages over NFC, but that’s not driving my demand for NFC, it’s the potential for NFC payments in my city.

Where to Next, Android or Windows Phone?

First of all, I have not decided 100% to leave my iPhone.  Over the holidays, I will start trying out different phones and let you know about my experiences.  As a tech analyst, I will be separating my personal experiences and what I think the homogeneous consumer “market” will think as I am not a typical consumer.  I am much more technical, live a more digital and connected life, and am older than the median versus the “average” consumer.  Most interestingly, four years ago I didn’t think I would even be considering something else as my primary phone, and must give credit to Google, Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, for their continued advancements.

 

Marty Cooper’s Billion Dollar Spectrum Contest Idea

Martin Cooper photo (S. Wildstrom)
It has been almost 40 years since Martin Cooper made the mobile phone call that earned him the title of father of the cell phone. Today he is still active in the industry, looking for ways to make mobile better. Like many others, he thinks t5hat finding enough spectrum to handle soaring wireless data usage is the great challenge. Unlike many, however, he has ideas that go beyond reallocating a limited pool of wireless spectrum.

One of his concerns is that what has been spectacular growth in the efficiency of spectrum use has slowed. “There’s not much motivation for the people who have the spectrum to get more efficient,” he says. “Why should they get more efficient when all they have to do is ask for more spectrum? Yes, they have to pay for it, but the cost of spectrum at auction is the bargain of the century. Just think about it. You may spend $1 billion to get a piece of spectrum but that spectrum is going to double in value every 2½ years.”

So Cooper, who has spent many years working on smart antenna technology that would allow more effective reuse of spectrum, has an idea to create an incentive. “One possible way, and a way that I suggest would be really valuable for the government to get people to operate more efficiently, is what I call the Presidential Prize. Suppose the government offers the industry the opportunity to get, say, 10 MHz of spectrum free of charge, no auction price or anything, All you’d have to do to get that 10 MHz of spectrum is demonstrate that you could operate at least 50 times more efficiently than existing people.  Well, if somebody could do that, they’d have the equivalent spectrum of 50 times 10 MHz, or 500 MHz of spectrum today.

“So my suggestion is let’s have a contest to see who can get to 50 times improvement over the next 10 years or so. It’s going to cost a lot of money to do that, but we’re going to find that we’ll have some new carriers , people that have made substantial investments, and we’ll now be using the spectrum more efficiently. The spectrum belongs to us, to the public, not to the carriers. We only lease it to the carriers, and they are supposed to operate in the public interest. It is in the public interest to use that spectrum efficiently and make it available to more and more people. The only way to do that is to get the cost down.”

You can see much more of my interview with Cooper, including video, on Cisco’s The Network.

Evernote and Sugarsync: Headed in Reverse Windows 8 Gear

Two of the apps that changed the way I work are Evernote and Sugarsync.  Evernote allowed me to go paperless and Sugarsync allowed me to have access to all my data accessible by any device.  Both of the apps have very robust Windows 7, OSX, Android and iOS capability.  Robustness stops, though, at Windows 8, where Evernote and Sugarsync are the biggest disappointment I have yet to encounter with the new OS.  It has been 15 months since Microsoft’s BUILD event, more than enough time to architect, design, develop and test any application, particularly one with robust Windows 7 functionality.

Evernote for Windows 8 Metro

For the last few years I have infrequently used a pen or pencil to take a note in a meeting or at home.  I take all notes with Evernote.  Even if someone hands me a piece of paper, I will take a picture and import into Evernote.  Business card?  Import into Evernote and throw it away.  Whiteboard?  Take a picture and import into Evernote.  The great thing is that every image imported into Evernote is searchable, too.  This experience gracefully (relatively) scales across my PC, Mac, iPhone, Motorola RAZR I, Nexus 7, and iPad.  But falls miserably apart on Windows RT and 8.

homescreen_ipad_iphone_large
Evernote for iOS

Evernote for Windows 8 looks kind of similar, but falls down immeasurably.

Screenshot.789.1000002
Evernote for Windows 8 Metro

For the first few weeks, Evernote would not sync.  It pulled in one note from each month, then stopped.  Windows RT-based systems would just crash.  About a week ago, the sync feature started working on Windows 8 but still to this day, will not sync and just crashes after a few minutes of sync.

Here is the delta list of what I can do on Windows, OSX, Android and iOS that I cannot do on Windows 8:

  • Sync on opening app
  • Edit a note with any rich text.  Will only append.
  • Adding attachment
  • Edit text font, size, color, bold, italics, strike-through, alignment, bullet, number
  • Adding check-boxes and grids
  • Voice notes
  • View attachments (ie pdf, doc, ppt, xls).  You can see the file and it looks like you can touch it and open, but you cannot.
  • Sync in background (cannot on iOS either)
  • Save searches
  • View by pictures
  • Auto-subject by calendar
  • Paper image clean up
  • View by place (geo-positioned)

As you can see, the list of unsupported features is immense and keeps it from doing anything other than viewing or making very basic notes.  The continued crashed with the Windows RT app is inexcusable.  Judging by the mass of one and two start ratings in the app store, I’d say I’m not alone.  Stay away from Evernote and Windows 8 Metro; they don’t mix well.  Use the desktop app with Windows 8 desktop.

Now, onto Sugarsync.

Sugarsync for Windows 8 Metro

Sugarsync for Windows 7, OSX, Android and iOS enable you to keep your files in sync across devices.  On PC, Mac, and Android, files can be automatically synced in the background, too.  Therefore, every file you have on every device can automatically in sync to view and edit.  This all breaks down on Windows 8.

Sugarsync for iPad
Sugarsync for Windows 8

The Sugarsync experience is equally weak as Evernote.  Again, Sugarsync is multi-platform just like Evernote, but for some reason, they have decided to support a narrower subset than even iOS or Android.  Here is the Windows 8 delta list:

  • Search (no, you cannot search your files, online or offline)
  • Offline access to synced files (you must be connected to have access to documents)
  • Background sync
  • Select all devices synced to Sugarsync
  • Look for recent documents
  • Sort files by date

Finding what you are looking for is nearly impossible as there is not search, sort by date, or recent documents.  I cannot recommend any alternatives because none are better.  Literally, with Windows 8, you are landlocked.

Where to Next?

Evernote and Sugarsync need significant improvement or users will simply not use these apps.   Ironically on Evernote, this type of behavior reminds me how they treated Blackberry OS, which they do not support anymore.  While I don’t believe Evernote will discontinue Windows 8 support, they need to improve quickly and substantially to keep it from becoming naturally extinct.  With Sugarsync, the story is a bit different.  Even Microsoft hasn’t enabled Windows 8 offline storage with SkyDrive and at least with some of their messaging, they are trying to help the user learn how to do some sort of offline updating.  Sugarsync prompts the user to, “If you make changes to this file, please open Sugarsync again to automatically save your updated file to Sugarsync.  This way your updated file will be available across all your other decives [their misspelling] with Sugarsync”.  Very kludgy but at least it’s a way to keep files fresh.

Both companies have had over a year to plan, code and test for Windows 8 and there’s really no explanation other than lack of belief and priority in Windows 8 that explains this.  For the sake of users, I hope the situation is remedied quickly.  At a minimum, can you at least call them “preview”, alpha” or “beta”?

The BlackBerry Death Spiral

 

GovBizOpps screenshot

 

“Notice of Intent to Sole Source iPhone Devices.” That dry headline, from a National Transportation Safety Board post on the Federal Business Opportunities web site, is news about as grim as it can get for Research in Motion. Though the launch of the new BlackBerry 10 smartphones the company is counting on for salvation is just over two months away, it may well be too late. Enterprise customers, long the backbone of RIM’s business, are abandoning the platform and without them, RIM has little hope of survival.

The NTSB. like many U.S. government agencies, has long depended on BlackBerrys for secure mobile communications. But they are beginning to fall away. Among others, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration and two Homeland Security agencies, Customs & Immigration Enforcement and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives have announced plans to move to the iPhone.

BlackBerry’s advantages have long been security and reliability and, indeed, RIM recently announced that it had won FIPS 140-2 security certification for the BlackBerry 10 platform.  But other devices, notably the iPhone, now also offer government-ready security solutions. As for reliability, NTSB says in its document justifying a sole source Verizon Wireless/Apple deal:

 This requirement is for the acquisition of Apple iPhone 5 devices. These Apple devices will replace the NTSB’s existing blackberry devices, which have been failing both at inopportune times and at an unacceptable rate. The NTSB requires effective, reliable and stable communication capabilities to carry-out its primary investigative mission and to ensure employee safety in remote locations.

If that’s the way its staunchest customers feel, RIM’s BlackBerry 10, no matter how fabulous, is doomed.

Windows, iOS, and Android All Have Something to Prove This Week

Prior to Apple developing iOS and over the last 25 years, there had never been much of a threat to the Windowsecolove ecosystem. With iOS, Apple proved many things, including the value of a holistic experience delivered through purpose-built combinations of hardware, software and content. Now in mobile, it’s Microsoft looking into the window wanting to get inside. After iOS came Google’s Android, which was focused on the same areas as iOS. This week, with multiple announcements, Windows, iOS and Android all have some things to prove and I wanted to dive a bit deeper into some areas.

Windows 8 Launch

For decades Microsoft has been the uncontested PC market share leader. Macs made a little bit of a dent, but for the most part, Microsoft ruled and for years it looked like Microsoft would have uncontested dominance. That was until the iPad. While the iPad isn’t trying to be a PC, it did provide an optimal experience for specific usage models the PC once delivered. Sure, you can surf the web on your PC, but when kicking back on the couch is it the best way to do this? Not for me and not for 100s of millions of other people. I still must have my PC, but I prefer my iPad for certain tasks my PC previously performed.

With Windows 8, Microsoft hopes to bridge the gap between PC and tablet. They will attempt to do this by releasing Windows 8 on about every conceivable form factor possible and seeing what sticks. This is a huge risk in that they are also sub-optimizing the experience for desktop-only experience by adding the Metro layer and removing the start button. The Windows 8 experience is optimized for devices with touch and an accessible keyboard, turning the devices into a Swiss Army device. I have used my iPads for years with an extended keyboard, so I absolutely see the value here. This week, Microsoft must prove that flexibility of Windows 8 trumps the purpose-built focus of an iPad.

Windows RT adds another proving ground. For decades, Windows equated to compatibility with the past, which is inextricable linked to Microsoft’s IT roots and the fact that many consumers are peeved about wasting a prior, large investment. I am not saying that consumers care less about backward compatibility, but they care more about what the device does today and in the future then the past. Unlike Windows 8, Windows RT will not run all the older Windows 7 desktop applications. Microsoft bridges the gap with some key Office apps, but forget about loading up iTunes or Quicken that you have. Hardware compatibility with USB devices is an unknown as well. This has never been an issue with the iPad, but then again, neither iPad or Apple stands for backwards compatibility.

Finally, we have Microsoft Surface, the first Microsoft-branded PC that directly competes with its ecosystem. This test will take a long time to play out but rarely do these examples of suppliers competing with customers work out well. While we don’t know exactly how pricing and features will work out over time, few premium-branded Windows tablet makers are excited about this. If Ballmer’s email to its stakeholders wasn’t clear enough, future Microsoft does two things: devices and services, and those devices that its customers currently provide.

While we will need to wait months and some cases years to fully understand how all these play out, the official launch for Windows 8, Windows RT and Surface this week will give better indications on where Windows is headed.

Windows Phone 8 Launch

Windows Phone was very respectable in the early days of smartphones and was one of the few phones until RIM’s Blackberry to be accepted by businesses. Then came the iPhone and iOS, which undoubtedly changed Microsoft’s mobile fortunes for the foreseeable future. Instead of a commanding 90-95%% OS market share like it does in PCs, in mobile, Microsoft is looking right now, at best, 3% share of the mobile market. Given how Windows Phone 7.X has done, there must be some huge change for Microsoft to start gaining share.

Microsoft’s biggest challenge in smartphones is consumer apathy. Metro is differentiated, the maps are good and Nokia has some really good imaging but consumers are not yet all that excited about Windows Phone. Microsoft needs more black and white, differentiated, and demonstrable features to break consumers out of their addiction to iOS and Android phones if they are to make big progress.

With the launch of Windows Phone 8, Microsoft could start to reverse its fortunes. If Microsoft can show that a Windows Phone 8 is a must-have device to pair with a Windows 8/RT PC or tablet and an Xbox, I do believe they can start to make faster traction with those audiences.

iPad Mini Launch

Apple, plain and simple, invented a new category with the iPad. Sure, there were previous Windows Tablets, but the biggest issues were a lack of apps, pen requirement and very high prices. Tablets , particularly iPads have started to eat into the PC market. It’s not that an iPad can replace a PC, but some consumers are choosing to buy the new category (and shiny thing) instead of buying a replacement PC.

The iPad Mini will be interesting for Apple. Apple has always been able to command a price premium in, quite frankly, all devices. Whether it’s an MP3-playing iPod, iPhone, iPad, or Mac, consumers are willing to pay more. The iPad Mini will test this pricing elasticity more than ever. I believe to hit its profit goals, Apple will need to be priced at least at $299, which puts it into that 30-40% gross profit range. They could margin blend on the rest of the iPad line to get the price even lower, but that’s pushing it.

With Amazon Kindle Fire at $149, a $299-349 price will be pushing the pricing power farther than I have seen in a long time. I do expect an iPad Mini to have a much better experience than a $149 Kindle Fire, but with many consumers just glad to be able to have an affordable tablet, many will opt for the Fire. Apple will sell truckloads of the iPad Mini this holiday season, but not nearly as many as they could have if the Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire didn’t exist.

Google Nexus 10” Android Tablet Launch

While Android has done well on smartphones and 7” tablets, anything above 7” has been a business and marketing disaster. Google had clearly deprioritized the 10” category as the smartphone market eclipses the size of the tablet market. At some point though, Google needs to bring their “A” game to large tablets and incent developers to create high quality tablet apps. Right now, Google does not allow anyone to easily count the tablet-specific apps as they number in the 100’s. Not 100’s of thousands, I am saying hundreds.

Google is rumored to announce this week a Google Nexus 10” tablet with Samsung. Price is almost inconsequential in that without more native Android tablet apps, a new Nexus tablet could be worse than bad. I expect 10″ Android tablets this holiday to be relegated to the bottom of the pricing barrel below Windows 8 and iOS. Unless Google can pull off something completely amazing and unexpected, this Nexus 10” will sell as well as all the other Android 10” tablets, not well.

An Amazing Week

Yes, this week will be one that all the ecosystems will have something to prove. When I step back a bit, I marvel at the amount of innovation and competition that is happening and just know this will be great for consumers this year and five years into the future. Competition and innovation are important as evidenced more than ever by this week’s announcements.

Why Maps are “Really” Important to Apple

In my last Apple Maps column I discussed why Apple would have delivered a suboptimal maps experience. This analysis was really a short term view of why they would do this, and the answer was Wall Street. Net-net, Apple would have felt the Wall Street wrath more than they are already feeling post-iPhone 5 launch had they delayed their launch for a quality product. Now, I’d like to look at the long term value of “maps” and why this could be so important to Apple. The answer is simple, it’s to monetize a huge portion of the internet they aren’t getting a piece of today.

Maps are for More than Getting from Point A to B
For most general consumers, “maps”, if they are even aware of the smartphone functionality, means getting help from getting from point A to point B. My son’s pee wee football coach even places a Google maps link to each away game that provides directions on the smartphone. Even if someone isn’t aware that phone maps exist, all they need to do is click on that link and they will get directions to the game.

For more advanced consumers, “maps” help them find brands or categories of products near them to get phone numbers or driving directions. Want to see how late that Jiffy Lube near your house is open on a Sunday? Search for it and it should have that info of it’s in the database. Looking for some coffee and you don’t care about the brand? Search for “coffee” inside of maps and be directed to the closest place.

With an Android device and Google Now, users can easily check in via Google+ once they arrive at a destination. If you’re searching on Yelp or checking in on FourSquare on any phone, you may even me able to find discounts on your visit.

You see, “maps” are more than about just mapping, they are a portal to the future of local advertising, commerce and payments. You need to teleport yourself five years into the future to get the best idea of just how valuable this is. This is about big money, money that dwarfs what Apple lost in market cap over the past few weeks. Let’s peel back the onion a bit.

Local Advertising, Checkin and Deals
Advertising as a business is larger than movies, games and music combined. Most of those ad dollars get spent locally by the billions of small businesses across the globe and the large businesses trying to reach local consumers. Getting a cut of this would be huge and is no surprise that Google, Groupon, Yelp and Facebook are all going after this full force.

Today and even more in the future, every place we go will be tracked and most consumers allow it. In fact, in the future, telcos will provide subsidies to consumers who let them be tracked and be anonymously “checked-in”. In-context deals will be provided to these users that actually provide value, not the horrible deals most users get today from Groupon and Google. The problem with Groupon offers is that they don’t have good enough profiling or enough deals in inventory to tee up enough relevant deals. The same thing for Google and even Facebook.

Knowing where people are and what they are doing is crucial to building these profiles and for delivering the ultimate in ads, the “pick-off”. The “pick-off” is when an advertiser knows you are going somewhere and will provide you an ad to go somewhere else. Let’s say you search for “pizza” and get directed to “Joe’s Pizza” on 5th and Lamar. “Luigi’s Pizza” is on 7th and Lamar, and through their real-time ad network knows this and sends you an immediate $10 off coupon message if you spend $30, and a window seat for the best people watching. You accept, and you, Luigi and the ad network benefits. OK, so this may be a bit exaggerated but you get the idea.

So who could Apple impact with this? Google, Groupon, Yelp and Facebook. That’s big. This isn’t the only opportunity. How about commerce and payments?

Local Commerce and Payments
Now that Apple and their network knows you have arrived at Luigi’s, the coupon will show up in your Passbook and you are ready to roll. You show up at the front door, show the coupon, and you and your friends are seated at the best seat in the house, right in the front window. The party tweets about what good seats they have and check in on Apple’s Maps.

What about when it’s time to pay? Apple, because they are tied into Luigi’s, has a deal that everyone who uses “Passbook Wallet” gets 1% cash back. Apple has a frequent flyer kind of program where they get freebies toward content and devices. So you are motivated to pay with your “Passbook Wallet”. Upon checkout, the waiter scans your phone’s bar code with their smartphone camera, similar to a Starbucks checkout, and you are off to the next big party.

What companies does this disrupt? It effects a ton of people including Isis, Google (Wallet), VISA, Mastercard, and American Express. Can you even imagine how much profit this could be for Apple?

Maps Drive Big, Long Term Apple Opportunities
As I outlined in my previous analysis, Apple delivered a suboptimal mapping experience to limit the punishment they would have received from Wall Street had they delayed iPhone 5 or iOS 6. Long term, though, the stakes are outrageously high and involve Apple monetizing an enormous profit pool, local advertising and payments. Apple need maps, and evolved maps, to make that a reality and they are well on their way to do this.

Apple Maps: Decision by Wall Street?

Just as we all start to get sick of reading and debating the Apple Maps debacle,  a new interesting thread, issue, or new piece of information comes up.  This time, it was, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook apologizing for the lousy experience Apple Maps delivers.  You should put to rest the debate on whether it’s a good experience or not as it is per Apple’s own admission.  I applaud Apple for its admission, but Apple should never shipped it.  From a company who has defined itself by delivering the best experiences, why was there a decision made to ship a sub optimal experience?
 
Apple redefined for the entire technology industry what the word "experience" means. While There may be some debate debate if Apple has redefined the personal computer, There’s no one who can legitimately argue that Apple did not do this for the smart phone and even the tablet.
 
This is why it is just so odd as to why Apple would allow this low-quality map application to be released in the first place.
 
There are really only two different and mutually exclusive ways this can be explained:
1) Apple forgot how to deliver and evaluate a good experience.  Essentially this scenario says that Apple, after delivering great mobile experiences for years, forgot how to do that and how to measure it.
-OR-
2) Apple knew they were delivering a poor experience and decided to ship the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 anyways.  they would deal with the consequences afterwards.
 
Any reasonable person who follows technology closely must know that it’s the second option.
 
This then gets to the decision making process.  Anyone who has ever spent any time in product management knows that near the launch of a product, you have many launch readiness reviews. Apple may call their review something different, but they have something like it.   It involves cross functional teams, typically including product management, product marketing, program management, engineering, manufacturing and operations. Each group goes through their review, one after the other. These types of meetings essentially compare the minimum launch criteria with the current state of the product. The outcome of this meeting determines if the product is ready to ship or not and the critical actions to close the gap. The most senior executives rarely attend these meetings, but are sought afterwards for escalation If there are issues.
 
You can bet that Apple maps was reviewed and scrutinized over and over and over. You can assume some people said that the experience was good enough to ship and there were those who said Apple maps was not ready to be shipped.  The decision probably came down to Tim Cook himself, who opted to ship a sub-optimal Apple maps experience.
 
Tim Cook had a very difficult decision to make in that none of them resulted in anything optimal. He had to choose between:
1) Ship a sub optimal experience coincident with the launch of the iPhone 5, "hitting" commit dates made to Wall Street, press and retailers. With this decision Apple would potentially take the heat from consumers and the press.
2) Delay shipping the iPhone 5  until Apple Maps delivered a good experience. This would raise the ire of Wall Street and investors.  As we have seen over the last two weeks, Even though Apple shipped millions of the new iPhone five, it still wasn’t good enough for much of Wall Street. Imagine, if the iPhone five were delayed by a few months.  Imagine what that would’ve done to the stock price.
 
So how did it work out for Apple? Short-term, it worked out pretty well if you measure in terms of sales. They sold 5 million iPhone 5s the first weekend and 100M ungraded to iOS 6.  Apple’s stock hit a massive hit this week, but it’s unclear to say if Apple Maps were the culprit, if it was financial analyst expectation versus how many they sold, or fears of production issues.  It was a combination of all of these.   Apple’s reputation has surely taken a hit but it’s unknown if it will have any lasting impact. Apple’s prior issues with products stemming from things like iPhone antennas, MobileMe, and Ping barely made a brand scratch and was followed up by record selling products.  I do believe that people will start to question brand-new things that Apple gets into that are related to their core competencies.  These are could be markets like search and products like TVs.
 
So why was the decision made to ship a lousy Apple Maps experience? As we’ve seen Apple’s stock get hammered as of late, it was about the stock price.  Imagine if Apple had delayed shipping the Phone 5.  The stock would have been hammered even harder.  Therefore, Apple’s Tim Cook probably made the right short-term business and stock decision even if it wasn’t in the best interests of its customers.  You see, brands have half-lives, and while Apple cannot have a string of incidents like Apple Maps, it can afford this one in isolation.  Tim Cook, Wall Street thanks you.  Apple Maps users, not so much.

Of Course HP Will Enter the Smartphone Market Again

Two weeks ago, the industry was abuzz with discussion about Meg Whitman’s Fox Business interview on September 13. There, she said HP must ultimately offer a smartphones. This set off a chain of new stories, some aghast that HP would be considering something like this given HP’s last foray in phones. Most of the ire stems from HP’s exit and dismantling of Palm and webOS last year versus a strategic analysis. Upon closer analysis though, this makes perfect, strategic sense for HP.

HP’s last foray in phones didn’t end pretty. In less 18 months, Palm and webOS was acquired by HP and then shuttered. In less than 60 days, the HP TouchPad was launched then discontinued. There was nothing positive about how this ended for HP, Palm, webOS, retail partners, employees or its app ecosystem. At this point, none of this matters in the future and it really is time to move on. The discussion must start at the value of the smartphone.

I have been unapologetically bullish on where I see smartphones into the future. There is a credible scenario where the smartphone could take on most of our client computing roles. In this scenario, the smartphone is a modular device, which “beams” data to wireless displays and peripherals. Modular operating systems with modular development environments like Android and Windows will enable developers to write once and deploy to many different kind of form factors. Just imagine how much better this will be in five years. Even at IDF 2012, Intel showed this scenario in their WiGig video, albeit with a tablet, but there’s nothing to keep this from being a phone. I want to be clear that this (heavy modularity) will only happen if PC usage models stagnate to the point where they don’t need tremendously more compute performance or storage. If Intel is successful with their Perceptual Computing initiative, the probability of this scenario greatly decreases as the smartphone won’t be able to deliver the required performance. HP then must develop a smartphone if they want to be in the future client hardware business. Meg Whitman also talked emerging markets.

Meg Whitman touched on this modularity potential when she talked emerging regions. She talked about how in some countries, the smartphone would be their first computing device and in some cases their only computing device, meaning they will never own a PC or tablet. The first point here is price. In many countries, people will only be able to afford one device, and that device will be a smartphone. Secondly, due to the modularity scenario described above, it will extend to other usage models, like desktop computing. I don’t think anyone can find fault in Meg Whitman’s logic. Let’s now look into enterprise.

Today, two of the biggest buzzwords is “BYOD” or the “consumerization of IT”. Don’t confuse this with the ability to get corporate mail on your iPhone. That’s not BYOD. BYOD is getting full enterprise network, application, security, and management access. That’s a lot different than mail, but many “experts” do confuse this very important point. Imagine how important this is in a healthcare, financial, government, or even any business that develops any kind of IP. You get the point. This is where HP could meet a need for a phone and enterprise management system for that phone, so it is managed just like an enterprise PC. Given HP’s enterprise focus, it makes perfect sense for HP to offer an enterprise-class smartphone with enterprise security, manageability, and deployment capabilities. Does this mean it will be an ugly brick? No. I’m speculating a bit, but I think it will be an attractive phone, but it will be durable enough to be dropped once without shattering the screen or glass backing. As its designed for durability, it will be waterproof, too. HP has an opportunity, the one opportunity that RIM and BlackBerry missed, and that’s an enterprise phone.

There are many strategic reasons for HP to offer a smartphone that are very logical, given the enterprise and emerging region needs explored above. Given HP’s enterprise focus and experience in managed client devices, they have a lot of value to add, too. Add that to the modularity scenario and it essentially would make HP look crazy not to get back into smartphones. I outlined here that PC makers cannot run away from smartphones, so I am very happy to see HP getting back in. As for execution? While fresh in the industry’s mind, I think it’s time for all of us to get beyond webOS and give HP another shot.

My Favorite Things About iOS 6

Having used every version of iOS and Android since inception, I am always very excited to jump on the latest and greatest smartphone operating system.  You see, operating systems say as much about a company and about the future as it says about what’s important now.  While this isn’t a deep analysis on OS mind reading, I wanted to share with you my initial thoughts on Apple’s iOS 6 for the iPhone and iPad.

There are elements about  Android and iOS that I like.  None of these operating systems is perfect, but each has things that I really like and is valuable to its different kinds of users.  iOS 6 is no different in that there are certain things I really like about it.

  1. Do Not Disturb: Ironically, my favorite thing about iOS 6 isn’t about what it enables me to do, but what it enables me not to do.  My phone is my alarm clock and it was very annoying at 2am when it would start buzzing due to someone in China posting on my Google+ wall or getting other notofocations.  Well, no more.. one button means bliss.
  2. VIP inbox: This is a special sort on important people.  Like many, I get about 200 emails a day but refuse to let it run my life.  The VIP mail “sort” enables me to instantly see the most important messages from the most important people, like my wife.  And clients, of course.
  3. Improved Message Sync– I have two iPads and my iPhone so iMessage synchronization is key.  iOS 5 was a bit spotty, but iOS 6 has been spot on so far.  Thank you Apple.
  4. Reply with Message: Like many, my work day includes bouncing between calls, desk time, and driving.  When I’m on a  call and a client calls, I want them to know that I will get right back to them.  With “Reply with Message”, its only two presses and I can SMS and message I like.
  5. Facebook Integration: Instead of opening the Facebook app to share something, it is now built into the core of the OS. This means saving time, clicks, and contacts integration.  Even though Android and webOS had this for a long time, it still doesn’t diminish it as a good feature.
  6. Shared Photo Streams- This will be huge in my family as almost everyone in the family has an iPhone or iPod and we love sharing pictures.  I will probably use this for more personal photo sharing versus pulling me away from Facebook, Twitter, or Google+.
What about Maps, Siri, Camera, and Passbook?
Apple made some changes to Maps, Siri and added a new app called Passbook.
  • Maps- I use both an Android and iOS phone (sometimes Windows Phone) at the same time to always compare and contrast the experiences.  I’ve always been happy with the maps on Android devices as it had turn by turn directions that were very accurate.  The Apple maps function so far has worked so-so (my kid’s school missing) in my little town of Austin and I have a heard a lot of chatter about others having some issues. Steve Wildstrom does a good job of covering some of the Apple maps challenges here.
  • Panorama Mode- I’ve been taking panoramic pictures for a long time.  Before adding the feature ti iOS 6, I just used Microsoft’s Photosynth app that’s been available in the App Store  for a long time.
  • Siri- There has been a lot of research done that says on the whole mainstream consumers are happy with Siri.  In my n=1 research, I have never been thrilled with Siri’s ability to determine what I am saying.  I haven’t yet noticed a sharp improvement in this capability, either, but others, like Tim Bajarin, have.  My bar is set quite high as I am in the car over two hours a day and want to do a lot of voice texting and dictation. Because of Siri’s lack of accuracy with my voice, I am not planning on using the additional database capabilities like sports score, movie times and restaurant reservations.  But I am sure others will love it.
  • Passbook- Think of Passbook as the one digital place for all those annoying paper items or bonus and discount cards that I always manage to misplace.  Apple says you can put airline tickets, movie tickets, coupons, loyalty cards and more.  I am very excited about this feature as I am paperless.  Unfortunately I cannot get it to work, and as of this writing, I keep getting error messages.  I’m not the only one with this challenge as I have seen many Twitter posts on the same thing.I have researched this and don’t have a fix yet, but will update this as soon as I do.
All in all, I am happy with iOS 6 on my iPhone 4s.  No, it’s not “swing me around the room” amazing, but it didn’t have to be for me to still like iOS.  I prefer Android’s open content sharing mechanisms, notifications, and live pages more than what iOS has to offer, but not enough to switch my primary device off of my iPhone.

 

The Significance of Motorola’s RAZR i Announcement with Intel Inside

Today, Motorola Mobility announced the Motorola RAZR i for Europe and Latin America.  The phone is very similar to North America’s RAZR m, but instead of a Qualcomm, ARM-based SOC, it includes an Intel Atom-based X86 processor.   This announcement is significant for Intel and the industry for many reasons, including Intel’s first big brand phone in a unique industrial design and the increased use of Intel Inside which could become an industry disruptor.

Background

Intel had its challenges in mobility over the past few years with its Menlow and Moorestown products as there were many promises made but very few smartphone products shipped.  Things changed dramatically with the delivery of the Intel’s Medfield SOC and with the Infineon wireless acquisition.  Medfield shocked all industry watchers in that it was the first Intel mobile SOC that performed well and got good battery life. Shocking too was Intel’s ability to use binary instruction set conversion in Android to make specific applications that embedded ARM instructions work well on the X86 platform.  So far, so good on compatibility as I haven’t even heard of any meaningful compatibility challenges with Android apps.

Medfield pulled in the first wave of phones from Lenovo and  ZTE in China, Lava in India, Orange in U.K. and France, and MegaFon in Russia. The phones were good at their price points, but not great, and the designs looked like derivatives of the Intel-designed phone. The phone industry watchers were pleased at a good start by Intel, but wanted to see a global brand in a unique phone.  This is where the Motorola RAZR i comes into play.

The Motorola RAZR i

In a discussion with Intel’s vice president and general manager of Intel’s Mobile and Communications Group, Mike Bell and Motorola, it was apparent that both sides were very excited.  I don’t mean the traditional “oh it’s a launch and I have to be excited” tone.  This was for real.

Like the RAZRM m, the RAZR i has an edge to edge, 4.3” Super AMOLED display, Gorilla Glass, aluminum display frame, KEVLAR backing, and splash proof coating. Unlike the RAZR m, the RAZR i is powered by an Intel Atom SOC clocked at 2GHz.   It has a single core SOC and is “hyperthreaded”, meaning it can process two operations, or threads, at the same time.  On paper, this approach should save power as most phone operations are single threaded and you don’t have to burn a full second core to do this.

Motorola and Intel said that the 2Ghz SOC will help with many different usage models, including web browsing, multitasking, games and imaging with its 8MP camera.  Without using the RAZR i or even reading detailed reviews, the faster web and multitasking messaging makes complete and total sense as Intel performs very well here and this can get only faster as they’ve boosted clocks to 2GHz.    The improvements on games makes sense, too, given it includes a very highly clocked Imagination Technologies graphics core and  should be even clocked higher with the CPU boost.  I will wait to use the phone and wait for reviews before commenting on the camera.  The features look very impressive as it can take 10 pictures in a second, but quality is key here, too, and I need to use a unit first.  These functions are primarily handled by the Hive-based ISP and don’t have a lot to do with a 2GHz processor anyways.

Battery Life

Motorola says that the RAZR i achieves “20 hours of combined usage time”.  The footnote says, “Battery life based on an average user profile that includes both usage and standby time.  Actual battery performance will vary and depend on signal strength, network configuration, features selected, and voice, data and other application usage patterns.”  I have to say that is quite vague.  What is more useful is what Apple discloses which comprises detailed talk time, web browsing, video, music, and standby.  I really cannot even comment on the RAZR i battery life until I see some of these figures broken out which I am sure will be available as reviewers put the phone through its paces.  As previous Intel-based phones have very respectable battery life in their class, I’d expect better battery life as Motorola has packed a 2,000 mAH battery inside but we will have to wait for reviews to see the impact of the Super AMOLED display and Motorola software load.

Intel Inside Branding

Intel has spent over $1B in marketing each year for at least the last 15 years.  They have built a highly-ranked brand on consumer awareness measurements, and amongst techies very high awareness and familiarity.  In the PC and server space they have high degrees of preference as well with the “processor-aware” crowd.  The smartphone market is different, though in that heavy-duty ingredient branding hasn’t been used… yet.  One major thing I noticed for this launch was the proliferation of Intel and Intel inside branding and sub-branding.  It is evident in the web, print and video assets shown at today’s event, even down to the Intel jingle at the end of the commercial. Below are are a few examples.

razri
Motorola’s Event

 

razrintelinside
Motorola Web Site Specifications, First Line

 

razri intel logo
Kevlar backing of the RAZR i
razri on wood
Motorola RAZR i Landing Page

 

razri with intel inside
Motorola RAZR i Landing Page
razr i logo
Motorola RAZR i Landing Page

 

Ending to Motorola RAZR i U.K. TV Commercial

This is a very significant industry dynamic as Intel is now running similar marketing “plays” in the smartphone as they have used in the PC market.  The impact on the PC market was pronounced as both the distribution channels and the PC makers became very dependent on Intel Inside dollars to fund their marketing operations. Imagine if this dynamic catches hold in the smartphone market.  It could be very disruptive to smartphone distribution, brands and consumers and could quite possibly give Intel the leg up they need to gain more handset design wins and sell even more phones.  Qualcomm, NVIDIA and TI will need to reevaluate how they combat something like this.

Some phone brands look at the PC market and want to stay as far away from that brand dynamic as possible  as they see Intel’s brand as dominating theirs.  Others see this as a great opportunity to leverage Intel’s brand, potential gain share, and amplify their own marketing dollars.  Industry watchers need to keep their eye on this dynamic as it will be a potential disruptor in the smartphone ecosystem.

Conclusion

The Motorola RAZR i smartphone announcement with Intel is very significant on many levels.  First, Intel gets a big-named brand in Motorola, who, while has faded in share of late has a very solid brand profile.  Secondly, the RAZR I has a unique industrial design with unique features which set it apart from the Intel-designed skins from the previous launches.  I am very, very interested to see how well the phone performs and in battery life given a highly-clocked Intel Atom at 2Ghz combined with a 2,000 mAH battery while still only 8.3mm thin.  Finally, and most significant, is Intel raising the stakes in smartphone component branding.  This branding dynamic will have more of an industry impact than even the RAZR i itself and has the potential of being a major disruptor.

Apple vs. Samsung: What Doesn’t Compute

I’m not a lawyer, but I am an analyst who unfortunately has participated in some of the largest corporate legal battles, has two immediate family members who are IP lawyers, and has had to decide on industrial design for consumer electronics. None of this qualifies me to give legal advice, but I am able to spot some very interesting things in technology lawsuits.  The Apple-Samsung lawsuit was no different, as it was full of opportunity and oddities, and I wanted to share just a few observations.

The first thing I want to be clear on is that it is apparent to me that based upon the evidence and common sense, I believe Samsung infringed on at least few of Apple’s patents.  Just looking at the Samsung phones before and after and hearing about the need to be like Apple was enough for anyone would to arrive at that conclusion that some phones were made to look like Apple’s.  What I am not saying here is that I agree with everything that the jury came back with either; I don’t.  I am not a lawyer and I did not see every shred of evidence that the jurors saw.

With that off my chest, let’s dive into some of these things that I found unique or odd about the trial.

I’ve Seen That “Aligned Grid” Before

Two of the patents under scrutiny dealt with the way iOS icons are set in a grid with a lower bar situated at the bottom for apps.  Specifically, these were patents USD604,305 and US 3,470,983.  It was funny, the first thing I thought of was my Windows desktop where I have icons aligned in a gird with my most used icons pinned to my taskbar.  I remember old versions of Windows where it would “Align to Grid”, too.  So really, what is so unique or special about this patent?  Is it the fact that I am using it on a PC and the patent is on a phone?  I find this one odd.

IMG_5926
iPhone Icons Aligned to Grid With Dock
image
Windows Icons Aligned to Grid With Dock

I’ve Seen That “Pinch and Zoom” Before

I remember getting an early preview of Microsoft’s original Surface table, now called PixelSense.  It could recognize over 50 simultaneous touch points as it was designed for more than one person and entire hands.  One of Surface’s special features was to pinch and zoom in on photographs…. almost exactly like the iPhone.  Apple’s two finger pinch and zoom is covered under US 7,844,915. I am certain that Microsoft and Apple are dealing with this in one way or another behind closed doors, and I speculate that based upon Microsoft Research budget and amount of years they had been working on Surface, they have the upper hand.  Remember, Apple was not the juggernaut it is today with more cash and market cap than anyone, therefore putting Microsoft in a better position to patent pinch and zoom.

surface picture
Microsoft Surface (2007)

I’ve Seen Those Curves Before

One of the other key patents Apple was fighting in court was related to the rounded corners. Apple had two design patents related to the corners.  The two patents, USD504,889 and USD593,087 were both patents related to many physical elements combined, including rounded corners.  Those curves are specifically 90 degree curves related to the same curvature in Apple’s legacy icons which date back over 20 years.  I ask, does it make sense that someone can patent a curve?  It does to the USPO, but in other designs like cars, you see related curves all the time, yes?  I mean, really, do curves seem like something that is patentable?  On the top is the Compaq T1100 sold in 2003 and on the bottom is Apple’s patent filed in 2004.

Compaq TC1100 (2003)
apple 504889
Apple USD504,889 (2004)
apple 504
Apple USD504,889 (2004)

 

Would You Confuse an Apple and Samsung Phone?

One very prominent scene inside the courtroom was when Apple icon designer Susan Kare testified even she confused the Galaxy for the iPhone.  I’ll give Mrs. Kare the benefit of the doubt, as maybe she was just looking at the icons, but I doubt anyone else on earth would confuse the two phones.  Every Galaxy S has a “SAMSUNG” and “AT&T” logo on the front of the phone and you certainly wouldn’t make the mistake of buying the wrong phone as the carton is clearly labeled Samsung.  So if consumers wouldn’t confuse the two and wouldn’t mistakenly buy the wrong phone, how damaging is the similarity, really?  Have you ever heard even a rumor of someone mistakenly buying a Samsung phone and thought it was an iPhone?  If you have, please let me know in the comments below.

 

s2 packaging    samsung s2

 

iphone 3gs packaging iphone 3gs

 

So What?

So I have brought up some possible inconsistencies or “horse sense” that may go against what the jury said and potentially even against patent law, so what?  I think if we cannot look at ourselves in the mirror, be honest with each other on what violates a patent or if there even is a patent to violate, the U.S. patent system itself will lose credibility and is doomed.  If reasonable intelligent people can’t even make sense of it, then what does that say about the problems we will face in a few years as companies become even more litigious as they file patent after patent just so they don’t get burned down the road?  I hope more good than harm comes out of this patent spat.  The big picture is really about continued innovation.  We should all pay heed to what Ben said so well yesterday“The key to the future will be to seek out new opportunities with fresh thinking and innovative ideas. To those that think innovation is dead I pose this question: Have all the problems of the present and the future been solved? Until the answer is yes, there will always be room for innovation.” Let’s not let the patent system stifle that innovation and let’s use some common sense as we approach it.

Human-Computer Interface Transitions will Continue to Drive Market Changes

As a former executive and product manager for end consumer products and technologies, I have planned and conducted extensive primary research on Human-Computer Interfaces (HCI) or Human Machine Interface (HMI). A lot of this research was for the industrial design of consumer products and their mice, keyboards, and even buttons. I conducted other research for software and web properties, too. Research was one input that was mixed with gut instinct and experience which led to final decisions, and in those times and companies for which I worked, were #1 in their markets. Only recently have innovations in HCI come to the forefront of the discussion as the iPhone, iPad and XBOX Kinect have led in HCI and in market leadership. I believe there is a connection between HCI and market leadership which needs more exploration.

For years, the keyboard and mouse dominated in HCI. For the previous deskbound compute paradigm, the keyboard was the best way to input text and perform certain shortcuts. The mouse was the best way to open programs, files and also move objects around the desktop. This metaphor even impacted phones. Early texting was done on 12 keys where users either forced it with one, two, or three strikes of a key to represent a different letter which was then improved with T9 text prediction. Thankfully, Blackberry popularized the QWERTY phone keyboard for much improved texting and of course, mobile email. Nokia smartphones then popularized the “joystick”, which served as a mini omni-directional pointer, once the industry shifted to an iconic, smartphone metaphor.

Then Apple changed everything with the iPhone. They both scrapped the physical keyboard and the physical pointer and replaced it with the finger. We can debate all day long if it were the capacitive touch screen, the app ecosystem, or something else that drove Apple to its successful heights, but we can all agree that Apple needed both to make a winner. Just use on of those $99 tablets with a resistive touch screen and you will know what I’m talking about.

The touchpad has gone through many noticeable changes as well. Remember when every notebook had a touchpad and two, sometimes three buttons? Now look at Dell’s XPS 13, the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro. We are now looking at a world with giant trackpads that can recognize the multitudes of gestures with minimal effort.

Then Microsoft changed the game with the XBOX Kinect. Interestingly enough, like Apple, Microsoft eliminated physical peripherals and replaced with a body part or multiple body parts. Nintendo reinvented gaming with the Wii and its bevvy of physical controllers, and then Microsoft removed them and replaced them with major limbs of the body. In the future, Microsoft could remove the gaming headset microphone, too, once Kinect can differentiate between and separate different player’s voices.

Voice is of course one of the most recent battlegrounds. Microsoft has shipped voice command, control and dictation standard with Windows PC for nearly a decade but has never become mainstream. They do provide a very good “small dictionary” experience on the XBOX Kinect, though. Apple has Siri, of course, and Google has Voice. Microsoft may look like the laggard here based upon what they’ve produced on PCs and phones, but I am not counting them out. They have mountains of IP on voice and I wouldn’t doubt it if the industry ends up paying them a toll for many voice controlled system in a similar way OEMs are paying Microsoft every time they ship Android. This is just one reason Apple licenses Nuance for the front-end of Siri.

We are far from done with physical touch innovations. Just look at Windows 8 notebooks. Windows 8 notebooks are experiencing a dramatic shift, too, with their multiple gestures using multiple fingers. Just look at all the innovations Synaptics is driving for Windows 8. Their Gesture Suite for Windows 8 “modern touchpads” adds supports for the eight core gesture interactions introduced with Windows 8 touch, specifically supporting the new edge swipes to navigate the fundamentals of Windows 8 Metro experience. Interestingly, with the addition of all of the Windows 8 gestures on the trackpad, for certain usage models, the external mouse actually starts to get in the way of the experience. I can see as touch displays and advanced touchpads become commonplace, this could eliminate the need for a mouse. This would be interesting as in previous HCI shifts, it resulted in the elimination of a physical device to improve the experience.

The long-term future holds many, many innovations, too. I attended this year’s annual SIGCHI Conference in Austin, TX, which I like to describe as the “SIGGRAPH for HCI” and it is truly amazing what our future holds. Multiple companies and universities are working on virtual keyboards, near field air touch using stereopsis (2+ cameras), improved audio beam forming for better far-field and a bevy of other HCI techniques that you have to see to believe.

What can we take away from all of this? One very important takeaway here is to realize that those companies I cited who led with major HCI changes ended up leading in their associated market spaces. This was true for Blackberry and Nokia during their haydays, and now it is Apple, Microsoft and maybe Google’s turn. It doesn’t always stand true, though in commercial markets, but in many cases, stands true for consumer companies. Just look at SAP. In the future, it is important to keep your eyes on companies investing heavily in HCI technologies; companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and innovators and enablers like Synaptics who I believe will continue to surprise us with advanced HCI techniques which will lead to market shifts.

HSA Foundation: for Show or for Real?

I recently spent a few days at AMD’s Fusion Developer Summit in Seattle, Washington.  Among many of the announcements was one to introduce the HSA Foundation, an organization  currently including AMD, ARM,  Imagination, MediaTek, and Texas Instruments.  The HSA Foundation was announced to “make it easy to program for parallel computing.”  That sounds a bit like an oxymoron as parallel programming has been the realm of “ninja programmers” according to Adobe’s Chief Software Architect, Tom Malloy at AMD’s event.  Given today’s parallel programming challenge, lots of work needs to be done to make this happen, and in the case of the companies above, it comes in the form of a foundation.  I spent over 20 years planning, developing, and marketing products and when you first hear the word “foundation” or “consortium” it conjures up visions of very long and bureaucratic meetings where little gets done and there is a lot of infighting.  The fact is, some foundations are like that but some are extremely effective   like the Linux Foundation. So which path will the HSA Foundation go down?  Let’s drill in.

The Parallel/GPU Challenge

The first thing I must point out is that if CPUs and GPUs keep increasing compute performance at their current pace, the GPU will continue to maintain a raw compute performance advantage over the CPU, so it is very important that the theoretical performance is turned into a real advantage.  The first thing we must do is distinguish is between serial and parallel processing.  Don’t take these as absolutes, as both CPUs and GPUs can both run serially and in parallel.  Generally speaking, CPUs do a better job on serial, out of order code, and GPUs do a better job on parallel, in-order code.   I know there are 100’s of dependencies but work with me here.  This is why GPUs do so much better on games and CPUs do so well on things like pattern matching. The reality is, few tasks just use the CPU and few just use the GPU; both are required to work together and at the same level to get the parallel processing gains.  By working at the same level I mean getting the same access to memory, unlike today where the CPU really dictates who gets what and when.  A related problem today is that coding for the GPU is very difficult, given the state of the languages and tools.  The other challenge is the numbers of programmers who can write GPU versus CPU code.  According to IDC, over 10M CPU coders exist compared to 100K GPU coders.  Adobe calls GPU coders  “ninja” developers because it is just so difficult, even with tools like OpenCL and CUDA given they are such low level languages.  That’s OK for markets like HPC (high performance computing) and workstations, but not for making tablet, phone and PC applications that could use development environments such as the Android SDK or even Apple’s XCode.  Net-net there are many challenges for a typical programmer to code an GPU-accelerated app for a phone, tablet, or a PC.

End User Problem/Opportunity

Without the need to solve an end user or business problem, any foundation is dead in the water.  Today NVIDIA  is using CUDA (C, C++, C#,), OpenCL, and OpenACC and AMD supports OpenCL to solve the most complex industrial workloads in existence.  As an example, NVIDIA simulated at their GTC developer conference what the galaxy would look like 3.8B years in the future.  Intel is using MIC, or Many Integrated Cores to tackle these huge tasks.  These technologies are for high-performance computing, not for phones, tablets or PCs. The HSA Foundation is focused on solving the next generation problems and uncovering opportunities in areas like the natural user interface with a multi-modal voice, touch and gesture inputs, bio-metric recognition for multi-modal security, augmented reality and managing all of the visual content at work and at home.  ARM also talked on-stage and in the Q&A about the power-savings they believed they could attain from a shared memory, parallel compute architecture, which surprised me.  Considering ARM powers almost 100% of today’s smartphones and tablets around the world, I want to highlight what they said.  Programming for these levels of apps at low power and enabling 100’s of thousands of programmers ultimately requires very simple tools which don’t exist today to create these apps.

The HSA Foundation Solution

The HSA Foundation goal, as stated above, was to “make it easy to program for parallel computing.” What does this mean?  The HSA Foundation will agree on hardware and software standards.  That’s unique in that most initiatives are just focused on the hardware or the software.  The goal of the foundation is to literally bend the hardware to fit the software.  On the hardware side this first means agreement on the hardware architectural definition of the shared memory architecture between CPU and GPU.  This is required for the CPU and GPU to be at the same level and not be restricted by buses today like PCI Express.  The second version of that memory specification can be found here.  The software architecture spec and the programmer reference manual are still in the working group.  Ultimately, simple development environments like the Google Android SDK, Apple’s XCode and Microsoft’s Visual Studio would need to holistically support this to get the support of the more mainstream, non-ninja programmer.  This will be a multi-year effort and will need to be measured on a quarterly basis to really see the progress the foundation is making.

Foundations are Tricky

The HSA Foundation will encounter issues every other foundation encounters at one time in its life.  First is the challenge of founding members changing their minds or getting goal-misaligned.  This happens a lot where someone who joins stops buying into the premise of the group or staunchly believes it isn’t valuable anymore.  Typically that member stops contributing but could even become a drag on the initiative and needs to be voted off.  The good news is that today, AMD, ARM, TI, MediaTek and Imagination have a need as they all need to accelerate parallel processing.  The founding members need to make this work for their future businesses to be as successful as they would like. Second challenge is the foundation is missing key players in GPUs.  NVIDIA is the discrete GPU PC and GPU-compute market share leader, Intel is the PC integrated GPU market share leader, and Qualcomm is the smartphone GPU market share leader.  How far can the HSA Foundation get without them?  This will ultimately be up to guys like Microsoft, Google and Apple with their development environments.  One wild-card here is SOC companies with standard ARM licenses.  To get agreement on a shared memory architecture, the CPU portion of ARM SOC would need to be HSA-compliant too, which means that every standard ARM license derived product would be HSA-compliant.  If you had an ARM architecture license like Qualcomm has then it wouldn’t need to be HSA-compliant.  The third challenge is speed.  Committees are guaranteed to be slower than a partnership between two companies and obviously slower than one company.  I will be looking for quarterly updates on specifications, standards and tools.

For Show or for Real?

The HSA Foundation is definitely for real and formed to make a real difference.  The hardware is planned to be literally bent to fit the software, and that’s unique.  The founding members have a business and technical need, solving the problem means solving huge end user and business problems so there is demand, and the problem will be difficult to solve without many companies agreeing on an approach.  I believe over time, the foundation will need to get partial or full support from Intel, NVIDIA, and/or Qualcomm to make this initiative as successful as it will need to be to accelerate the benefits of parallel processing on the GPU.