Month: December 2012

A Few of My Favorite and Significant Products of 2012

One great thing about a tech industry in transition is that manufacturers amp up the amount and breadth of the products they announce. 2012 was a transition year for PCs, smartphones, and tablets, and there were so very many great options to choose from.

My selection criteria for my favorite, significant products was simple:

  • I personally used for extended periods of time as my prime device.
  • It brought something significantly new or better variable to the table.
  • It delivered a good or great experience.

Google Nexus 7 Tablet

The Nexus 7 tablet was announced at Google I/O 2012 at $199 when the going rate of a 10″ tablet was $399. The Nexus 7 sported a 7″ display, NVIDIA quad core Tegra 3 silicon, and Jelly Bean. The tablet leveraged Android’s phone ecosystem, not Android’s anemic 10″ ecosystem. The most significant thing the Nexus 7 brought to the table was “feel.” It felt great, almost as good as iOS, through the “Butter” enhancements, and that is something Apple had the advantage on for literally years over Android. I still use my Nexus 7 on an almost daily basis.

Apple iPad 3 Tablet with HumanToolz iPad Stand

I was a daily user of my iPad 1 and iPad 2 so it made sense to explore the iPad 3. Even though it was thicker and heavier than the iPad 2, I bought one because of the Retina Display. The display was simply awesome, particularly for a near-sighted person as I. The iPad 3 also ushered in the beginning of the public “graphics wars”, where Apple mistakenly went after NVIDIA’s Tegra 3 using some synthetic graphics benchmarks. This made Apple look weak and defensive and NVIDIA look strong.

My kids are now the primary users of the iPad 3.

The best stand for the iPad 3 was the HumanToolz iPad Stand, which equaled the iPad in design and mechanical craftsmanship. The forged aluminum stand fits like a glove through a combination of connectors, magnets and pads, and enables the user to use the iPad in about any angle or configuration.

Dell XPS 12 Touch Ultrabook

I was an advocate for hybrids and convertibles way before it was cool 🙂 and am still one today. The Dell XPS 12 is a touch Ultrabook whose display swivels to become a tablet. Make no mistake, as in the name, the XPS 12 is an Ultrabook, tablet second. Mine sports an Intel Core i7, 8GB RAM and 256MB of flash drive storage, so it’s no lightweight on performance and, like any Macbook, it’s a bit heavy, between an Air and Pro. As a tablet, it is heavier of course than a tablet-only device or Microsoft Surface, but until 2013 and Intel Haswell, you can’t have everything.

Motorola Razr I Smartphone

The Razr I is the first big-brand phone with Intel-inside and with a unique industrial design. The phone was fast and got really good if not great battery life. Some of the unique things I noticed was just how fast the phone was on basic tasks and just how precise it was on speech to text and web browsing, things that are important to me.

The Razr I proved many things for Intel:

  • X86 can be power-efficient for phones and tablets. In fact, tests at Anandtech show the Intel besting ARM-based silicon in power.
  • X86 at low power can deliver the required performance
  • Intel’s risky strategy of cloud recompiling or on-the-fly translations of ARM-based apps worked
  • Intel can effectively design, develop and manufacture mobile SOCs with third part IP (Silicon Hive and Imagination)
  • Respected, global brands will engage with Intel on phones

The Razr I wasn’t perfect as it supported 4G HSPA+ (not LTE), did not yet have Jelly bean but is on its way (up to Motorola), and I’d like a little better camera. The Razr I is one of three phones I carry.

Nokia Lumia 920

I got this late in the season so I’ve only had a few weeks with it. The reason it makes the list is its camera and overall experience. The camera, quite frankly, is the absolute best I have used so far. Low light really is amazing, and unlike my iPhone 4S pics, doesn’t white out while using a flash. Its physical optical image stabilization is part of the magic, the other part is finely tuned software connected to its sensor and ISP. The overall experience is elegant, and in my opinion, more elegant than on iOS, but then again more limiting, too. True multitasking is somthing of a black box as you’re not quite sure what is happening or can happen in the background. I never noticed a single lag which I will attribute to Qualcomm silicon, Windows Phone 8 integration, and the minimal allowable multitasking.

The only major downside is the absence of some of my “front-page apps” without replacements like TWC TV, WatchESPN, Instagram, Pulse, Sugarsync, TripCase, and Expedia. The Lumia 920 is one of three phones I carry.

HTC One X+ Smartphone

Like the 920, I got HTC One X+ late in the season, but it deserves to go on this list because it “feels” like the fastest phone I’ve ever used and it has really good battery life. If the phone sounds familiar, it is. It’s basically the HTC One X with NVIDIA quad core Tegra 3 clocked at 1.7ghz instead of a Qualcomm Snapdragon. Ironically in a chip sense, it does include Qualcomm LTE wireless.

What do I mean by fast? If you’ve used Android, you know that more things you allow in the background, more widgets used, your phone starts to bog down. I loaded the HTC One X+ to the absolute max and it didn’t skip a beat. Very impressive. With LTE in Austin, I got 53Mbps down on AT&T, which blew me away, too. With all the speed came good battery life, too. HTC claims on their web site that it actually gets “up to 50% better battery life than the HTC One X”. I am skeptical about sweeping claims like that as I want to see the details, but the phone did deliver very good battery life. The HTC One X+is one of three phones I carry.

Honorable Mention: ASUS VivoBook U38N Ultrathin

This ultrathin came in last week, so I haven’t been able to take it through its full paces, but I am initially so impressed that it makes it on my list. Why? Think brushed aluminum, thin, light, AMD Trinity quad core APU, AMD discrete graphics, 1080P IPS touch-display with Windows 8, gesture touchpad, back-lit keyboard…. low price. You get the idea. I will drill down into this the more time I spend with it, but this is a very nice laptop.

So these are my favorite, most significant products that I have used in 2012. Products that brought something entirely new to the table and ones that provided a good or great experience. I would love to hear your comments below.

 

Technology Predictions for 2013 – The Year of Going Vertical

The theme for my 2013 predictions is going vertical. The writing on the wall has been seen for some time now and I believe 2013 is the year we will see it officially come to fruition. There is absolutely no denying the success of Apple’s vertical model. In a mature consumer market, being vertical is simply the most sustainable model–if executed properly– by way of differentiation, competitive advantage, and a host of other long term strategic reasons. Many parallel industries and the vertical nature of the businesses in them point the way for this reality.

1. Samsung Invests in Its Own Future
Right now Samsung is the most dominant Android smartphone manufacturer. However, they do not fully control or dictate the directions of agenda of Google as it relates to Android. Because of this Samsung is dependent, to a degree, on Google for their future success. In a quickly verticalizing industry, this is a point of concern for Samsung. Samsung once invested in their BADA OS, but I believe they will further invest in owning their own software platform in order to fully unify their screen strategy. The most logical candidate is the Tizen OS they have been working on but are yet to release.

2. Microsoft Gets Into Smartphone Hardware
Microsoft signaled their intent to be a PC hardware company when they launched the Surface. By doing so they strained relationships with their partners and went down a path which is hard to turn back from at this point. The next logical step is for them to get into the smartphone hardware business, or acquire someone like Nokia or HTC, and begin controlling the hardware for Windows Phone. I believe Microsoft will officially get in the smartphone hardware game in 2013.

3. Apple Makes Large Investment in Its Supply Chain
Apple is more vertical than any company right now in the personal computing landscape. Other companies have some of the parts, but are yet to fully go vertical and show that they can execute as a vertical company. Apple has already proven it is a well oiled vertical machine and I believe they will further invest in that by using their massive stockpile of cash to invest in owning key parts of their supply chain. The key reason for this is to maintain their margins around hardware but also to relieve many of the supply chain bottlenecks that they deal with on a yearly basis. These investments could be in owning a key display manufacturer, hardware machining factories, and even investing or co-investing in a foundry to manufacture their own semiconductors for all their computers.

4. Google Goes Fully Vertical with Motorola
Because Samsung is Google’s largest partner, and in many of the same ways Samsung depends on Google, so does Google depend on Samsung. The reality is that Android would not have the market share it does today without Samsung. So by Samsung investing more in its own future with a software platform, Android will be weakened. The only logical response is for Google to also officially go vertical with Motorola and take their hardware future into their own hands. They can do this by focusing Motorola on the high end with a Nexus like strategy or they can focus on the lower end and go for more volume than margins. I can see either scenario playing out.

5. RIM is Acquired
To be entirely honest I have some hope for RIM. I do think they will make a modest rebound in 2013 with the release of BB10 devices. But to fully take a significant share of the handheld market they will need help from someone else. It makes the most sense in my mind for RIM to consolidate with someone who has the marketing and the hardware vision. Perhaps Samsung would acquire RIM and make BB10 its proprietary OS if Tizen doesn’t work out or any other number of the growing Asian OEMs who could use a better business platform and a better and unified localized OS for China.

Some Anti-Predictions

Here are a few things others believe may happen in 2013 that I don’t see happening, call them my anti-predictions.

1. Amazon Does Not Make a Phone
We have all heard the rumors and some tech blogs have even proclaimed an Amazon phone as a fact. I personally still find this move hard to swallow. The business around mobile phones is an entirely different beast and one that operates uniquely amidst other personal computing segments. Given Amazon’s business as a retailer, I have a hard time finding the value in extending that model to a segment where actually purchasing is still done at a minimum if at all by most of the mass market.

For me to believe Amazon has a shot with success in the very difficult economics of mobile phones, I would need to be convinced of the business value for them to do so. Something that I have not heard a sound argument for yet. At this point, however, I don’t see it happening.

2. Apple Does Not Release a TV Set
It seems as though the hottest rumor that keeps surfacing is Apple and the apparent holy grail of an Apple TV set. I’ve argued before that I don’t see Apple designing and shipping a large piece of glass as Apple TV. I remain convinced the set top box strategy is the most dynamic, sustainable, annually innovative, and logical approach. A set-top box can be refreshed in a more regular fashion and there is nothing you can’t do with a set-top box that you can do by integrating technology into the TV set. Given the way technology is advancing for next generation TV display technology, it is becoming to clear to many who know and understand the industry that glass is glass and it will contain some smarts but the best approach is to put innovation into the box that sits next to or is somehow connected to the TV. Apple will continue down their current path with Apple TV and will make strides toward moving it from a hobby to a business but it will not be by releasing a large piece of glass.

I have mapped out a number of scenarios for 2013. I’ve shared a few with you here but my full industry outlook includes many more including some related to the economy which I will turn into some columns here soon. 2012 has been an incredible year for Tech.pinions and its because of our amazing reader and commenter community that our site has become a recognized source of technology industry insight and perspective. We appreciate you all greatly and we will continue to serve you with many new features and exclusive content in 2013. Happy New Year to you all and may you have a prosperous 2013.

Reflecting On 2012

What a year 2012 has been. From some of the most exciting and historical product launches, wild and ill-concieved acquisitions, ugly court battles, and more, has made this year one worth reflecting upon. One thing is certain and agreed upon by the Tech.pinions columnists, that we are entering one of the most–if not the most–innovative time in human history. We are still only scratching the surface with personal computing. We expect the next decade plus to be both a land grab of opportunity for those ready to solve problems for the mass market of tomorrow, or a tragic wasteland of once industry titans who failed to understand and embrace disruption and re-invent themselves on a regular basis.

We the Tech.pinions columnists felt like this week was worth taking time to reflect on the last year and think about the new year and we encourage our readers to do the same. So we are all taking the week off from the daily column and will resume next week. Until then, we thought we would share some of the most read and most talked about columns from 2012. Enjoy and Happy Holidays!

The PC is the Titanic and the Tablet is the Iceberg. Any Questions?
Pinch-to-Zoom and Rounded Corners. What the Jury Didn’t Say
iPhone Naysayers
Chrome OS, not Android, is Google’s Future
Ten Things I Prefer to do on my Surface vs. My iPad
We Are Entering the True Era of Personal Computing
The iPad Put a Fork in the Tablet Controversy
How the iPad Mini (and other 7″ tablets) Could Impact Future PC Sales
Facebook is for Old People

Despite Competition, Apple’s US Market Share Gains

Happy Friday to anyone working today–or not working–and poking around the inter webs. Although it’s the Friday before the holiday break, some interesting data came out from the Kantar Worldpanel today that I thought I would highlight. Kantar’s latest smartphone sales data is showing that despite the increased competition, Apple has actually grown its smartphone platform market share in the United States.

Global Consumer Insight Director Dominic Sunnebo stated:

“Apple has reached a major milestone in the US by passing the 50% share mark for the first time, with further gains expected to be made during December.”

Other data from the report highlights platform share in other parts of the world and the various changes. However, despite all the questioning I continually see from the investor community of whether Apple can remain competitive despite increased competition, increase in latest Android smartphone subsidies from carriers, other platforms like Windows Phone 8 emerging, yet amidst those questions and what seems like steep odds, Apple is actually gaining market share.

Keep in mind this is all being done with a limited iPhone lineup. One current generation, and two legacy products still selling well in the marketplace. I’ve said for a while now that Apple is competing against an army of Android devices. The continual sales numbers and marketplace demand for the iPhone remains incredibly impressive despite the massive Android army they are competing with.

That alone is enough to show this market is not acting like many of the pundits and financial analysts assume. Many assume this market looks like the PC industry of old where the market is dominated by one single platform. Wrong on every level.

Take a deeper look at this chart (click on it to enlarge it) as it is very telling in a number of areas. First iOS grew from 35% to 53% in the US market, a change of 17.5% from the same period a year ago. Android went from 52.8% to 41.9% in the US market, a decline of 10.9%. The US market is arguably the most mature smartphone market on the planet. I wonder the degree other markets, as they mature, begin to look like the US, keeping in mind the carriers and how and what devices they subsidize over others. All things equal, however, may paint a similar picture. And don’t think for a second the US an insignificant market and/or litmus test for others. No sane executive at any OEMs believes that and in fact I continually hear from them how important the US market is.

This is a huge market and keep in mind the total addressable market for smartphones is not static but it is dynamic. It is growing by hundreds of millions of new customers every year and will do so for at least the next five years. So to say Apple has increased market share in the US, means that they are also attracting new customers and benefiting from the TAM expansion, arguably more than any current vendor.

I’m yet to write my predictions for 2013, and I will the week following the holiday break. But I believe the smartphone market will look very different this time next year and perhaps not in some of the ways assumed by the pundits.

Avi Greengart’s Last Minute Non-Obvious Holiday Gift Guide 2012

Every year, tech sites put together holiday gift guides recommending the best products on the market. That’s great, but do you really need another gift guide that reinforces what we already know at Tech.pinions, that it’s going to be a very Apple holiday season? Besides, you bought those gifts already. This gift guide is for procrastinators trying to find a tech gift for someone a bit harder to shop for.

To go with that new PC or expandable smartphone
USB memory cards are such commodities that PR agencies hand them out like candy at press conferences. But if you don’t attend press conferences for a living, you may actually need to buy one. Even if you do have plenty of them lying around, sometimes it’s nice to own something that reflects your personal style, and if your personal style includes Star Wars, Batman, or any number of other geek culture franchises, Mimoco’s mimomicro cutesy stylized USB sticks and microSD USB card adapters make wonderful stocking stuffers. A Darth Vader 8 GB and a Millenium Falcon microSD USB adapter are permanent residents in my travel bag.

Mimoco mimobot USB memory sticks $19.99 and up

Mimoco mimomicro microSD adapter $12.99

To go with that Android phone:
Another commodity that benefits from customization is your cellphone charger. Adru has been prominently featured in Skymall, and it’s more than just an adorable Android logo you can plug your phone into – its eyes light up to indicate that the outlet is live (an extremely useful feature in airports), and then change color when your phone is drawing current (again, good information to know). When it’s not charging, a stand gives Adru “legs,” and it becomes a tiny Android action figure, admittedly without much articulation (the arms swing out, and the antennae are a softer rubber so they won’t break off).

Andru charger $25

For the LEGO fan
I originally planned to recommend a book on how to build rubber band –powered LEGO assault weapons that fire LEGO ammunition, but given the recent news, it seems in bad taste. However, No Starch Press has a delightful book for more peaceful-minded LEGO fans as well. (It’s a book. Made of paper.) The LEGO Adventure Book takes the reader on a cartoon-style journey through the portfolios of many different non-professional LEGO builders. There are instructions for building 25 of the models on display, but this is really a book for inspiration and understanding the techniques that different builders use (no pieces are included). Highlights are Katie Walker’s use of single-peg round pieces to simulate swimming pool tiles, and mosaics that are mini artworks.

The LEGO Adventure Book, Megan Rothrock, No Starch Press $24.95

To go on the fridge:
The Boogie Board is a small, portable electronic whiteboard. Nobody actually needs one, but it is delightful to use, making it a good gift for a young child who likes to scribble without wasting paper, or as a message center for the family refrigerator. The newest version, the Jot 8.5 has more modern industrial design, a stylus that doubles as a kickstand, and internal magnets so it sticks to the fridge without any mounting hardware.

Boogie Board Jot 8.5 $39

For the cord cutter
The trend of consumers cancelling their cable and getting all their content from AppleTV or the Xbox is badly overblown – the stats I’ve seen suggest that if this is a trend at all, it’s a glacial trend. However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t investigate alternative ways of getting content. The cheapest way to watch high quality broadcast HDTV is to actually watch HDTV broadcasts, which are completely free and typically provide higher resolution than cable or satellite services you have to pay for. All you need is an HDTV with a built-in HDTV tuner (basically every HDTV sold since 2006) and an antenna. I have tested several antennas over the years, and Mohu’s Leaf Plus beats them all. I live at the bottom of a hill which makes reception difficult. With my previous “best” indoor antenna (a chunky amplified model from Newpoint), I got a handful of channels, and some of those had a lot of interference. The Mohu Leaf Plus doesn’t even look remotely like an antenna – it is based on military technology putting antennas on vehicle mudflaps – but it works. I get twice as many channels, and all the blocky ones are now crystal clear.

Mohu Leaf Plus HDTV antenna, $55

To go with that new desktop
If you bought a new PC desktop or all-in-one this holiday season, it probably came with Windows 8. Microsoft’s new OS has a user interface designed for tablets, and when you use it on a desktop with a mouse, it’s… wrong. Logitech has tried to solve this problem with two mice designed to replicate touchscreen gestures; I didn’t like them that much – there isn’t enough real estate on the top of a mouse. But the Logitech t650 touchpad is perfect, allowing you to recreate the touchscreen gestures Windows 8 uses for navigation. In fact, I can’t imagine using a Windows 8 desktop without it, and you may even want to get one for Windows 8 laptops with small touchpads.

Logitech Wireless Rechargeable Touchpad T650, $79.99

For that new (or old) iPad
If you have a full sized iPad and want to enter text, after a while, your fingers are going to start to hurt – typing on glass just isn’t all that comfortable. There are a lot of keyboard attachments for the iPad, and I have tried most of them. The best, bar none, is Logitech’s Ultrathin iPad Keyboard Cover. It provides a fairly spacious keyboard with an exceptionally clever design which effectively turns your iPad into the world’s thinnest, lightest laptop.

Logitech Ultrathin iPad Keyboard Cover, $99.99

For the reader who loves their first or second generation Kindle or Nook
In our converged world, dedicated devices can still make sense. eReaders with e-ink displays offer a distraction-free reading experience, allowing you to truly get lost in a book without email notifications or Angry Bird temptations. Amazon’s new Kindle Paperwhite offers the highest contrast e-ink display and its backlighting stays on to improve readability in all but direct sunlight (where backlighting isn’t needed). The Paperwhite is thin and light enough that it’s worth tossing in your bag even if you’re already toting around a tablet.

Honorable mention: Barnes & Noble Nook SimpleTouch with Glowlight ($119) is thicker than the Paperwhite, but slightly easier to hold. It has physical page turn buttons and there are no ads on the lock screen. The Paperwhite has a noticeably better display, but the SimpleTouch is good enough that Barnes & Noble account holders should stick with the Nook.

Amazon Kindle Paperwhite $119, without ads $139

For those about to make New Year’s resolutions
There are a lot of fitness gadgets out there, and several of them are good gifts – provided you get yourself one, too, and use the social connection to motivate you both. (Otherwise, giving someone a fitness gadget might be interpreted as, “I think you’re fat. Here’s a gadget.”) I love the simplicity of the fitbit – in fact, when I finally lost my review unit for good, I bought another one with cash. However, the fact is that I lost this little clip-on four times, and the original model is mostly a glorified pedometer (fitbit did not follow up with its newer versions, and I have not tested them). The Nike+ Fuelband is also a glorified pedometer, but it is worn securely on your wrist, and ties into a full ecosystem of other Nike+ products. That means that if you just want to motivate yourself to take the stairs instead of the elevator, the Fuelband is perfect, but you can also add Fuelband data to more intense Nike+ exercise using its shoes, GPS running watch, or the personal trainer-style workouts in Microsoft’s Nike+ Kinect Training for the Xbox 360.

Nike+ Fuelband $149


For the home office (or small business)
According to several alarmist articles I’ve read this year, your chair is trying to kill you, and the only thing that will save you is a standing desk. Well, OK, but aren’t there dangers to standing too much, too? A little Googling proved, yup, that can be a problem too. Other than working in bed – an even bigger ergonomic no-no, according to Google – what can you do? How about a sitting and standing desk? Omnimount sent over their Work 15 desk arm, which looks like something out of a Terminator movie. You mount your monitor on the top of the arm, put your keyboard and mouse on the tray, and then raise or lower the contraption to full standing height, or all the way down to your desk. It’s a brilliant design – it moves easily, yet can stop in nearly any position and swings left and right, not just up and down. There are multiple ways to install it, making it appropriate for many different desk configurations, and I put it together in less than an hour. Since it doesn’t have to be stuck in a fixed position, you can ease yourself into working standing up, and you can take sitting breaks when your feet hurt. If your office arrangement permits, you could probably even use it as a treadmill desk (I didn’t try this). According to the standing desk faithful, once you use a standing desk you will have energy and better powers of concentration. In my experience, writing does sometimes feel more natural while standing, but it hardly cures ADD or got me into shape. But there is one other secret benefit to the Work 15: since it lifts your keyboard and monitor off the desk, you can swing it out of the way when you want additional desk space for paperwork. Or to stack gadgets to review. Whatever works for you.

Omnimount Work 15 standing arm $379

For the music lover
Every year Sonos comes out with a new addition to its product line, and every year I put the system in my holiday gift guide. I don’t do this out of habit, I simply find myself using and appreciating the system more each year. Setup is idiot-proof, operation is simple (even for complicated multi-room setups), and sound quality is good. This year, Sonos introduced the SUB, which, as you might infer from its name, is a subwoofer. The SUB is a glossy black squared-off wheel that can be placed out of the way, but is pretty enough to be on display. It adds significant bass to music; when dialed in correctly, the bass is clear without being boomy. There are three problems with the SUB: 1) you may want to independently adjust the volume depending on the tracks you’re listening to: I was somewhat shocked to discover that the SUB needed to be turned up from its calibrated volume for AC/DC’s Thunderstruck, and down for Carly Rae Jepson’s Call Me Maybe. Unfortunately, there are no volume controls on the physical unit, and virtual volume controls for the sub itself are buried in the setup menu. 2) the SUB is not strictly necessary; music on a pair of PLAY:3’s or a single PLAY:5 has adequate mid-bass. 3) At $699, the SUB is quite pricey. So, should you buy the SUB? Yes, if you have a flush gift budget and the giftee already has a fully built-out Sonos system. Otherwise, buy them more PLAY:3’s or PLAY:5’s, because the real beauty of a Sonos system is its multi-room capability.

Sonos SUB $699

Sonos PLAY:3 $299

Sonos PLAY:5 $399

No promotional consideration has been paid for inclusion on this list, however, the products were provided to Avi at no cost for evaluation. All opinions in this guide are his own. Avi tested many more products than appeared here; most just weren’t worthy of recommendation.

Patents: That Word Does Not Mean What You Think It Means

USPTO logo

Yesterday, the internet was abuzz with reports that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office had “rejected” another Apple iPhone patent. Many commentators jumped to the conclusion that, since this patent figured heavily in Apple’s recent legal victory in a case claiming infringement by Samsung, Apple had been dealt a heavy legal blow. But, it turns out, not so fast. Patent law speaks its own language in which you have to forget about the plain English meaning of words.

What are we to make of a statement like this, in the USPTO finding?

No rejection of the claims, as presently written, are made in this Office action based on the  Hill and Ullmann references because the teachings of those references are essentially cumulative  to the teachings cited in the rejections below. However, in order for claims to be found patentable and/or confirmed in this ex parte reexamination proceeding, the claims must be patentable over every prior art patent and printed publication cited in the order granting the request.

I think I know what all those words mean, but the passage as a whole reads like something from a nightmare version of a reading comprehension test. I am not a patent expert, and I count on folks like the Verge’s Nilay Patel and Matt Macari, intellectual property lawyers by training, to illuminate the dark ways of patent law. And, as Macari pointed out with regard to a similar USPTO ruling on another Apple patent, the rejection of claims following a request from reexamination, also known as a “first Office action,” is the first step in a very long process.

In this case, the challenge was filed by Samsung and, as is the normal practice, its challenge was considered without any response from Apple (that’s what ex parte means.) Macari cites USPTO statistics that such request are granted over 90% of the time. Apple now gets to come in an defend its patent before the UYSPTO–Samsung isn’t actually a party to the case. In a bit under 70% of such cases, some of the claims of the original patent are invalidated in reexamination while the rest are upheld; the patent in question contains 21 claims. About 11% of the time, all claims are rejected, leaving the patent invalid.

Although the USPTO reconsideration order came to light because Samsung filed it as part of its attempt to change or overturn the recent judgment in favor  of Apple, the action is not light to have any impact on that case, at least not any time soon. Under U.S. law, a patent is presumed valid until the USPTO says otherwise. At least for now, the reexamination order should not change anything.

 

A Deep Dive Into The Morgan Stanley Holiday Quarter Survey

On December 16, 2012, Morgan Stanley issued the results of a consumer survey.

We surveyed 1,010 US adults between November 26 and December 3 2012. The sample is representative of US individuals (18+) by gender, age, income and geographic regions. Conclusions based on total sample have a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.5% at 90% confidence level.

(NOTE: All quotations are sourced from the Morgan Stanley report.)

1) TABLETS

The first and most obvious result of the survey was that tablets, as a whole, were going to be clear winners of the 2012 holiday quarter.

One-third of respondents own tablets today, compared to only 8% a year ago.

While this can come as no a surprise to anyone following the tech industry, it is important to note that, in terms of gift giving for this holiday quarter, the growth of the tablet has come at the expense of notebooks, desktops and especially e-readers.

2) E-READERS

Among consumer electronic gifts, tablets are the most popular, followed by smartphones, while e-readers experienced the largest decline.

— Tablets (50% in 2012 vs. 31% in 2011)
— Smartphones (26% in 2012 vs. 17%)
— E-readers (9% in 2012 vs. 31%)”

Tablets are the number one gift idea in consumer electronics this year, while it was a tie between tablets and e-readers last year.

iSuppli seems to concur with this sentiment, indicating that general purpose tablets are harming e-reader sales.

It appears that they e-readers may well be relegated to niche status as general purpose tablets – which also serve as e-readers – become lighter, smaller and lower-priced.

3) AMAZON KINDLE FIRE

While the Kindle Fire is not strictly an e-reader, it too seems to be suffering this holiday season.

Kindle Fire appeal seems to be waning as 16% of potential tablet buyers would pick the device vs. 21% in last year’s survey

Lower end tablets may be suffering from the effects of increased competition. While the Amazon Kindle Fire was the a hot holiday gift in the fourth quarter of 2011, it now has to compete with the Nexus 7, Windows 8 tablets and the iPad Mini. As a result, Kindle retention numbers dropped from an already low 40% to and even lower 36%.

If these numbers bear out, this has to be terribly dissapointing for Amazon. Last year, there was a burst of enthusiasm for the Kindle Fire line during the holiday quarter but that enthusiasm seemed to all but evaporate as soon as the quarter ended. This year, Amazon introduced several new lines of tablets and vastly improved the quality of their hardware offerings. Surely they anticipated increased, rather than decreased, enthusiasm for their products.

It is too early to tell for sure, but it is possible that we’re seeing a trend away from single purpose tablets and a trend towards higher quality, general purpose tablets instead.

4) SAMSUNG

Samsung phones made an impressive leap in rate of retention from 37% to 63%. (Note, however, that this still does not match the iPhone’s stellar 83% rate of retention.)

While Apple’s retention rate is by far the highest, iPhone users who plan to buy a Samsung device increased slightly from 3% to 8%, though this share came entirely from other Android vendors who saw less interest from current Apple users compared to a year ago. This reflects Samsung’s dominating position in the Android ecosystem and success in marketing itself as an iPhone alternative.

You simply have to be amazed at what Samsung has accomplished and in such a short time. But ironically, Samsung’s growth is not only coming at the expense of competitor’s like RIM and Nokia, but it is also coming at the expense of other Android manufacturer’s as well.

One of the strengths of a licensed operating system like Android is supposed to be diversity of hardware manufacturers. That simply hasn’t happened. While Microsoft distributed its software licences to thousands of hardware manufacturers, Samsung has become the one and only hardware manufacturer that matters to Android. We’ll have to save the discussion of the consequences of this unexpected development for another day.

5) MICROSOFT

The survey contains two interesting points regarding Microsoft’s recent tablet efforts.

First, Microsoft Surface is preferred by 12% of those planning to buy a tablet.

Second, while 81% of iPad users plan to stay with Apple, 8% plan to purchase Microsoft’s surface.

Additionally, a different survey indicates that Windows 8 is a very distant third, to iOS and Android, when it comes to developer’s platform preferences.

I think these results have to be terribly dissapointing to Microsoft. Some pundits were expecting a flood of defections from the iPad once Microsoft debuted its tablet offerings. That clearly is not happening.

Further, I had anticipated an initial burst of enthusiasm for Windows 8 tablets. The real question, in my mind, was whether Microsoft would maintain that initial enthusiasm. Instead, sales of Windows 8 tablets has been tepid, at best. Having 12% of consumers intending to buy your products is far better than having 0% able to buy your products, but I believe that it is far, far less than Microsoft was hoping for or expecting.

6) APPLE

It seems as though the bad press for Apple has been endless of late, but that negative view is not supported by the Morgan Stanley survey. They point to at least four reasons why Apple can be optimistic about sales this holiday quarter.

First, more survey respondents want to buy the iPhone 5 today than the iPhone 4S a year ago.

34% of consumers plan to buy an iPhone in the next 6 months, compared to 30% in last year’s survey

If I recollect, the iPhone 4S was pretty popular last year. And one would assume that even more enthusiasm for the iPhone 5 should lead to even more sales this holiday quarter.

Second, analysts keep opining that Apple needs to sell a cheaper phone but customers keep disagreeing.

More respondents plan to buy the newest iPhone model today than a year ago (86% vs, 82%), likely due to key hardware improvements in the iPhone 5: LTE, brighter screen, and lighter and thinner phone.

Third, the iPad Mini does not appear to be cannibalizing the larger iPad but it does appear to be bringing new customers into the Apple ecosystem.

We believe iPad Mini’s cannibalization risk to iPad 9.7” is manageable. 47% of iPad mini purchasers are new to Apple, according to our survey. This is only slightly lower than 56% for the larger iPad 9.7”, suggesting the smaller iPad is attracting new users to the platform in addition to some incremental or replacement purchases from the existing 9.7” iPads.

Fourth, Apple actually INCREASED its already industry leading retention rate.

Apple’s iPhone retention rate improved 10 points over the last year, and 83% of iPhone users today plan to buy another iPhone.

I find it hard to believe that Apple’s sales are going to suffer this quarter when both purchasing enthusiasm and retention rates are going up.

7) CONCLUSION

There is definitely going to be a shake-out in the mobile sector. There are just too many entrants with too little differentiation.

In phones, not only are Samsung and Apple rapidly increasing their sales numbers but their RETENTION numbers are also rapidly rising. This bodes ill for the likes of RIM and Windows 8 contenders like Nokia and HTC.

In tablets, Apple seems to be maintaining its grip on half the market while Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Samsung battle it out for the other half. Again, in the long run, retention numbers may be what matters most but it is too soon to measure retention for newly minted products like the Google Nexus 7 and the Microsoft Surface.

We’ll know far more in January when (some of) the numbers come out. But until then, the Morgan Stanley survey may give us a peek at what we should expect.

The Shape of 2013: Predictions for the Year Ahead

Crystal ball graphic
After 15 years of making predictions, with a track record that would have made you rich if you’d bet on them, I’ve been away from the practice for a couple of years. But as the regulars at Tech.pinions have agreed to end the year with a set of predictions each, I’m back at the game. My best guesses for 2013:

A Modest Rebound for BlackBerry. Like many others, I was prepared to write off BlackBerry during the last year as its market share cratered. And if Windows Phone 8 had really taken off or if Android had made a serious play for the enterprise, it would be very hard to see where there might be room in the market for Research In Motion, no matter how promising BlackBerry 10 looks. But I think there is room for at least three players in the business, and right now the competition for #3 is still wide-open. BlackBerry still enjoys a lot of residual support in the enterprise IT community, and some key federal agencies that had been planning to move away from the platform, such as Homeland Security’s Immigration & Customs Enforcement, have indicated they are open to a second look. The challenge Research In Motion faces is that BlackBerry 10, which will be leased on Jan. 30, needs to be appealing enough to users, not just IT managers, that it can at least slow the tide of bring-you-own devices into the enterprise.

A Windows Overhaul, Sooner Rather Than Later. Even before Windows 8 launched to distinctly mixed reviews, there were rumors about that Microsoft was moving toward a more Apple-like scheme of more frequent, less sweeping OS revisions. Microsoft sometimes has a tendency to become doctrinaire in the defense of its products; for example, it took many months for officials to accept that User Access Control in Vista was an awful mess that drove users crazy. But Microsoft has had some lessons in humility lately and the company knows that it is in a fight that will determine its relevance to personal computing over the next few years. I expect that, at a minimum, Windows 8.1 (whatever it is really called) will give users of conventional PCs the ability to boot directly into Desktop mode, less need to ever used the Metro interface, and the return of some version of the Start button. On the new UI side, for both Windows 8 and RT, look for a considerable expansion of Metrofied control panels and administrative tools, lessening the need to work in Desktop. In other words, Microsoft will move closer to what it should have done in the first place: Offer different UIs for different kinds of uses. The real prize, truly touch-ready versions of Office, though, are probably at least a year and a half away.

Success for touch notebooks. When Windows 8 was first unveiled, I was extremely dubious about the prospects for touch-enable conventional laptops. The ergonomics seemed all wrong. And certainly the few touchscreen laptops that ran Windows 7 weren’t every good. Maybe its my own experience using an iPad with a keyboard,  but the keyboard-and-touch combination no longer seems anywhere near as weird as it once did. And OEMs such as Lenovo, Dell, HP, and Acer are coming up with some very nice touch laptops, both conventional and hybrid. Even with a premium of $150 to $200 over similarly equipped non-touch models, I expect the touch products to pick up some significant market share.

Significant wireless service improvements. We’ll all grow old waiting for the government’s efforts to free more spectrum for wireless data to break fruit. The incentive auctions of underused TV spectrum are not going to be held until 2014, and it will be some time before that spectrum actually becomes available. The same is true for a new FCC plan to allow sharing of government-held spectrum in the 3.5 GHz band. But the good news is we don’t have to wait. Technology will allow significant expansion of both the capacity and coverage of existing spectrum. Probably the two most important technologies are Wi-Fi offload, which will allow carrier traffic to move over hotspots set up in high-traffic areas, and femtocells and small cells, which can greatly increase the reuse of of the spectrum we already have. Unlicensed white space–unused free space between TV channels–should begin to make a contribution, especially in rural areas where TV channels are more sparse. And the huge block of mostly idle spectrum the Sprint is acquiring with its proposed purchase of Clearwire will also ease the congestion, probably starting next year. (Stay tuned for a Tech.pinions series on spectrum issues in January.)

Intel Will Make a Major ARM Play. It’s hard to believe today, but Intel was once a major player in the ARM chip business. In 1997, it bought the StrongARM business from a foundering Digital Equipment. Renamed XScale, the Intel ARM chips enjoyed considerable success with numerous design wins as early smartphone applications processors. But XScale was always tiny compared to Intel’s x86 business and in 2006, Intel sold its XScale operations to Marvell. A year later, Apple introduced the ARM-based iPhone. Today, ARM-based tablets are in the ascendancy, x86-based PCs are in decline, and Intel is struggling to convince the world that a new generation of very low power Atom systems-on-chips are competitive. Maybe the Clover Trail SOCs and their successors  will gain a significant share of the mobile market, but Intel can’t afford to wait very long to find out. With its deep engineering and manufacturing skills, Intel could become a major ARM player quickly, either through acquisition or internal development.

Something Special About Apple and iOS

The special needs community is rarely the target demographic for the tech industry. Many of the wonderful new gizmos and gadgets that come out simply aren’t designed for them. There are an increasing number of companies that are developing products and technology to make computers and mobile devices more accessible for the special needs community, however – and one of those companies happens to be Apple, Inc.

Apple’s VoiceOver technology was introduced with OSX 10.5 – better known as “Tiger.” It’s an accessibility feature that allows blind or visually impaired Apple users to interact with a computer through sound. A user can use the trackpad or keyboard to scroll through the applications on the docked menu at the bottom of the screen. It can literally read the user any text that’s displayed on the screen and allows users to edit text where applicable.

VoiceOver is also available on iOS devices such as the iPad. Visually impaired users have been incredibly receptive and appreciative of this, especially considering the fact that it’s a feature many other tablets and readers lack. As more and more publishing companies, universities, and corporations look to switch to readers and tablets in the future, accessibility features for the visually impaired certainly help Apple market its products as the superior choice amongst the competition.

Another feature that benefits the members of the special needs community is a new feature in iOS 6 called Guided Access. Guided Access allows parents and educators to “lock” onto an app so that children can’t accidentally exit out of it by pressing the home button. While this may seem like a very basic feature, it’s incredibly useful for children with Autism or learning disabilities who may become distracted or lose focus on tasks. There are a number of educational apps available in the App Store but it’s often hard for learning disabled students to stay focused on them long enough to actually benefit. With Guided Access, the task of keeping a child focused has gotten a little easier for teachers and parents.

While full accessibility is an on-going battle as technology continues to evolve, Apple is certainly taking steps in the right direction. Many other companies in Silicon Valley are taking their lead and continuing to improve accessibility features for different technologies and we hope to see this trend continue.

My own time at Apple saw many of these technologies discussed and drawn out on desks and white boards under the tireless leadership and direction of my colleague Dr. Alan Brightman, who was Director of Apple’s WW Disability Solutions for 12 years; and is now a VP at Yahoo focusing on Global Accessibilty. To see these things come to life and create impact all around the world is simply astounding (then and now).

Kelli Richards,
CEO of the All Access Group, LLC

 

Leaving the iPhone

I have used the iPhone since the 3G as my primary phone and have enjoyed my experience very much.  It was, quite frankly, ahead of its time in almost every conceivable way.  It “felt” better, had more apps, better apps, great camera and a built-in iPod.  Better in every way until now.  I am strongly considering leaving the iPhone in favor of either Android or Windows Phone and I want to tell you why. Interestingly, since I’ve had my iPhone, I have also carried an Android and Windows Phone so I could make weekly if not daily experience comparisons.  Things have changed and it could be time to move on.  I am not saying I dislike iOS or the iPhone- I do, it’s just that it just feels too restrictive and not as so far ahead as it once was.

“Feel” is Good Enough

With Android’s “Butter” introduced at this year’s Google I/O, the feel is nearly as good as iOS.  That says a lot, because as far reaching as the first Android phone, I could feel a major difference.  When I mean “feel”, it is the responsiveness that the phone has when you touch it, primarily the swipes, and the responsiveness to those swipes.  As for Windows Phone, it has always felt good and responsive to touches and swipes.

Key Apps Cross-Platform Apps Nearly as Good

There was a recent time when the newest apps were only available on the iPhone.  I don’t know if I am just becoming more settled (read:old) with my apps, but my front page apps have remained constant for a couple of years.  As those apps became available on Android, there was the quality conversation.  Those first Android apps were, well, ugly.  My front-page apps like Evernote for Android and Windows Phone are still ugly but they don’t keep me from doing my job or having less fun.  There is much less of a time delay or quality delta between Android and iOS apps than there ever was before.

Sharing Content Still Difficult

Let me just say up front that I am not the typical consumer as it comes to sharing information on social media networks.  I share a lot and I do it on a lot of networks.  Apple has been very particular in how it wants to allow you to share from the point of content.  Let’s look at sharing a news article.

On my iPhone from Safari, when I get to the page I want to share socially, I have two choices, Twitter and Facebook.  When I do share with those networks, a beautiful clipping emerges and there is space to say some things about it.  The problem is, none of the contextual info shows up like the website and the article name or author. That means I need to type in the article title.  This is a pain.  Alternatively on Windows Phone and Android, I have as many networks to share to as I subscribe to, and in my case this takes Twitter and Facebook and adds LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest. More times than not, it will take the article title and place it in the “share” as content.

I can still share that news article on LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest on my iPhone, but I need to copy the URL of the article, open the LinkedIn, Google+, and Pinterest  apps, paste the URL into the three apps, add the titles, then my own content, then post.  This is a whole lot of time I just don’t have.

Speech to Text and Control

I drive nearly two hours a day as I have three kids who are very active in sports.  One of my daughters is involved in club volleyball, basketball, equestrian, and cheer, all at the same time.  So my wife and I are in the car a lot.  Therefore, I need speech to text and speech command and control to actually work well.

Research shows that in general, consumers are happy with Siri doing very basic things like voice dialing.  My personal research has shown that Siri does not work very well at all under many circumstances.  With me, it is flaky and rarely works well.  When it does work well, it is like Siri is a different person.  I just don’t understand the massive variability.  We have good networks in Austin, I am originally from the Midwest which is considered at least by news agencies as having no accent, and I use the highest quality microphones.

Android speech capabilities are nothing short of incredible, but it takes the right phone.  The Motorola Razr I is one of the best as it accurately does speech to text over speakerphone at an unscientific 95% hit rate.  I talk, it types. With Google Now on my Samsung Nexus 3, it adds natural language to get very specific data points, very similar to Siri.  All in all, Siri is more sophisticated on paper, but does not work for me at all.  It is unfortunate, because Siri was the reason I bought the 4s.

Microsoft has been disappointing on this front so far given they have been doing speech control for around 15 years and the fact the Xbox works so well in a challenging acoustic and compute environment.

Newer or Different Technology

Apple actually has been ahead with its technologies and doesn’t get enough credit for it.  Apple has been ahead at times technologically on displays, SOCs, home sharing (AirPlay) and cameras. They have chosen not to lead technologically at times on wireless speed, WLAN speed, PAN, pen interaction, external storage, modularity, and notifications. I have been OK trading off newer or different technology for the better “feel”, better apps, better camras and iOS reliability, but with Android caught up in many areas and with Windows Phone on the move, it’s a more complex decision now.

Let’s take NFC as an example.  I was very skeptical about NFC for a myriad of reasons, particularly around NFC payments… that was until ISIS came to Austin.  I’m in my local Jamba Juice, and there it is, ISIS payments accepted.  At that point, I wanted it as I routinely forget my wallet and when I do remember, my debit cards get used so much it rarely scans correctly. I want NFC as a backup.  The Samsung commercials are funny and I do like playing around with sharing pictures and web pages over NFC, but that’s not driving my demand for NFC, it’s the potential for NFC payments in my city.

Where to Next, Android or Windows Phone?

First of all, I have not decided 100% to leave my iPhone.  Over the holidays, I will start trying out different phones and let you know about my experiences.  As a tech analyst, I will be separating my personal experiences and what I think the homogeneous consumer “market” will think as I am not a typical consumer.  I am much more technical, live a more digital and connected life, and am older than the median versus the “average” consumer.  Most interestingly, four years ago I didn’t think I would even be considering something else as my primary phone, and must give credit to Google, Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, for their continued advancements.

 

Android, China, and the Wild Wild West

Last week, I talked about the importance for us industry observers, analysts, media, etc., to have a more informed discussion when it comes to Android. I think it is important when we analyze, from an industry and market viewpoint, that we do so with a holistic viewpoint.

My key point in last weeks column was to address the issue of Android platform forking. Android in its purist definition only refers to the AOSP or Android open source platform. Something anyone on the planet can take for their own and fork it, thus differentiating their Android platform and in many cases using the core Android source and making their own platform. Therefore, as it currently stands we have Google with a platform based on Android, we have Amazon with a platform based on Android and we have Barnes and Noble with a platform based on Android. Each of these platforms is their own unique ecosystem.

I make this point because when we say Android has X% market share we are talking about the total including all the forks. This is a key point, because when many make the claim that Android is winning the market share game, they often make the mistake of assuming that Android equals Google, therefore assuming that Google’s version of Android has the total Android market share. This is of course false, as Google’s version of Android, the one that benefits Google in a monetary or data gathering way (a.k.a a business model), has only a fraction of the overall Android market share numbers being referred to. Exactly how much we are not sure because even Google refers to Android falsely making it sound like the total installed base of Android devices on the market have some business benefit to Google and of course that is not true. My gut tells me that if Google did release the numbers of the global install base of Android devices tied to their services, thus qualifying as a Google Android device, the picture would not be as rosy as many make it out to be. No where is that more the case than in China.

The Wild Wild West

As I have been studying the Chinese Android market, the only way I can describe it is the wild wild West. Android is fragmented, un-unified, inconsistent, and otherwise fundamentally fractured in as many ways a platform can possibly be. In fact it is hard to even call Android a platform in China, and there is certainly no Android ecosystem there. There are dozens of app stores, tightly controlled ISP and heavily differentiated experiences and services bundled on the vast majority of Android devices, half a dozen different payment mechanisms, and a general lack of standardization.

The top app stores come from the likes of Tencent, 360, 91, UCWeb (which is a browser) app store and a number of other tier two heavily localized app stores. If I was an Android developer focused on China, I would have my work cut out for me making sure I was present in all the various app stores, or try to go direct to consumers (as many are trying to do), or working as close as possible with the ISP and carriers themselves. This model is somewhat feasible by the larger developers but very difficult for the upstarts and other smaller developers.

What is also very interesting about the Chinese market for Android devices is that the vast majority of the 38 million Android devices sold in China last quarter were extremely low-cost entry level devices. Now, in most cases, this is exactly the kind of scenario that Google would hope for. Google’s mobile business model depends on install base and the best way to do that is to have a plethora of cheap devices so hundreds of millions of people can jump on your platform and you can make some mobile search and ad revenue. The only problem is Google is not benefitting from Android’s success in China in even the slightest way.

The challenges of Google with China are well documented. Over the past few years Google has continually been closing offices in China and largely abandoning the region. Android has not helped relations or Google’s strategy–or lack of strategy–in that region and it doesn’t appear that it will anytime soon. The vast majority of Android devices sold in China have been stripped of all services tied to Google in any way. Here are some key points.

– Local browsers dominate the web browsing landscape
– Google search engine market share is less than 5%
– 90% of new Android devices sold in China do not have the Google Play store on them.
– Many developers are choosing local in app advertising solutions over Google’s

China, and in particular the low-end Android segment, is one of the fastest growing segments in mobile. Every day China is accounting for more and more of the Android activations. Android in China has simply become such a customized and regionalized OS that I’d argue the point that Android in China should be considered its own fork. And due to the extremely fragmented and lack of standards around app distribution, I’m not that confident that Android has a sustainable position in the region outside that the devices are cheap. The vast majority of low-end Android consumers in that region are not investing into any specific ecosystem other than the likes of someone like Baidu, for example, which offers their services on a range of platforms, Apple’s included.

Other than Android devices being extremely low-cost, I’m not convinced, based on the data I have on the region, that Chinese consumers are loyal to the regional Android fork. A point, that offers more hope for standardized and unified platforms from competitors like Apple and Microsoft or even some platform not yet released.

The bottom line is, for now, Android is alive and well in China. It represents one of the fastest and the largest growth sectors for not just Android but the mobile market at large growing at about 300% year-over-year. Android is being taken by the natives and customized / implemented to benefit themselves and their heavily regional services. The vast majority of these devices have little to no benefit to Google. Android is doing well in China, Google is not. Something I find fascinating.

I paint this broad picture of Android in China for the hopes that we can have a more informed discussion when we discuss Android. Too many people associate Android’s holistic global success with Google and that is a disingenuous analysis. I’d love to be able to break out the individual Android fork market share, including the regional forks like China, India, and now Africa, but when the handset OEMs–and Google–are not sharing specifics. A situation I find entirely suspect. Although, the more I learn the truths about Android holistically across the forks and the regions, I am getting a sense of why the details are not being shared with us.

My Tech Industry Predictions for 2013

Each year, about this time, I put out a list of predictions for the coming year. I have been doing this for 23 years and over that time have I have had a reasonable level of success with these predictions. I have had some spectacular failed predictions too, like the year I said Microsoft would buy RIM. Because of our work and research, we get to see a lot of technologies in the works behind the scene as well as look at the data and numbers and make some educated deductions about the tech trends for the new year.

With that in mind, here are my top predictions for 2013.

1: Augmented Reality will go mainstream in 2013

Companies like Zappar and Arusmus have some great technology that adds an AR touch to published content, posters, and physical places. AR technology has been in the works for many years, but the demos I have seen from these two companies have me believing that 2013 is the year that AR becomes very important to the mobile world. More importantly, many of these AR companies have created great relationships with movie studies, game makers, publishers, and more, and their technology is already showing up in many of their products. I wrote about these two companies recently (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2412990,00.asp) so check out some of the examples I have at the end of this column to get a visual sense of why I think AR will be big in 2013.

2: US Power Grid hit by Hackers

Call me paranoid but the more I read about security hacking from China, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the more I am concerned about the safety of our various networks. While IT networks of all types remain a main target, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned recently that successful attacks have been made on computer control systems of American electricity and water plants and transportation systems. Security experts point out that many of these water and electricity plants have old architecture that is not tied to networks but many of them do and could be a target. Those impacted by Superstorm Sandy already know how the lack of power and electricity could impact their lives. So imagine if a power grid is taken down in large metropolitan areas and the impact it would have on individuals and businesses. I applaud our security experts on their diligence in combating all security threats and really hope that if our power grid does come under attack, they can head it off. By the way, this is one prediction that I hope I am very wrong about.

3: Google’s ChromeBook gets more consumer attention-Chrome laptops will gain traction in 2013

Acer and Samsung’s Chromebooks are priced around $250 and has become an attractive alternative for consumers as price continues to be a real issue with this market segment. I know that this only works when it is connected but the proliferation of public WiFi makes this less of an issue going forward. We all know that an HTML Web browser as an OS will someday happen and the Chromebooks are a good first step. Buyers of these laptops will also serve as an important testbed for us industry watchers in 2013 and could give us important hints about how this market will develop over the next five years.

4: Hybrids and convertibles get high interest in IT

In our discussions with IT directors recently we have heard that they are quite interested in hybrids or convertibles aka laptop and tablet combo devices. Today, with tablets part of the BYOD trend, as well as their own purchases of tablets for specific internal use, these IT managers are now forced to support three devices-PC, Tablet and Smartphone. The idea of just having to support a convertible or hybrid, instead of a separate laptop and tablet, is quite attractive to them. The first generation of these products, such as Lenovo’s Yoga, HP’s Elitebook convertible and Dell’s XPS DUO are being bought in good numbers from IT types who are starting to test them inside their organizations and newer models that are even more powerful will be out by Q3. All this points to potential growth of hybrids and convertibles within IT beginning in 2013.

5: Mobile Malware will be up 100% on consumer devices

For decades, the PC was the only real target for malware, security breaches, and targeted attacks. But with mobile devices soon surpassing the amount of PCs shipped each year, these devices have become major targets for all types of malware. In fact, we believe mobile devices will become the biggest target for hacking by the end of the 2013 because all of these devices are tied much more closely to personal identities and personal information then PC’s.

6: Intel Becomes a top 3 Foundry

There have been various reports from Asia suggesting that Intel’s current fabs are not operating at full capacity due to reduced demands for computer chips in 2012. Although there are others from the semiconductor world who feel demand for chips will increase next year, they believe the biggest benefactor of this growth will be foundries that produce chips made by ARM. If it is true that Intel’s fabs are under utilized, it would not surprise me if they move to extend their fabs to the likes of Apple and others who wish to leave Samsung and may be concerned that TSMC cannot keep up with their needs in the future.

7: e-Book sales over take the amount of physical books sold in retail

The move to eBooks is in full swing. One key reason is that tablets have become the #1 eBook reader and we will sell close to 230 million tablets in 2013. Amazon’s Kindle Reader app is on just about every tablet available, this there is no lack of digital e-books readers already in the market with more coming in the future. The ease of purchasing and keeping libraries up to date on all of your digital devices is the big draw. Plus the fact that about 1000 books can fit on and average reader. This is why you can see e-Books becoming the largest growth area in book distribution next year.

8: 7″ tablets dominate tablet sales

Given the price of the 7″ tablets, which can be as low as $79 but most hover around $199, it is not a surprise that these sized tablets will dominate the market in 2013. But what is not obvious is how they will impact the PC market. The problem for consumers with 10″ tablets is that with a cheap Bluetooth keyboard, it is almost a mini-laptop. Also, since many consumers can do about 80% on a tablet that they can do on a PC, many consumers are either extending the life of their current PC, or if they buy new ones, they purchase cheaper models since they see them sitting idle most of the time. The traditional PC does not go away because they are still needed for heavier computing tasks like managing their media, creating digital movies, etc.

However, if consumers begin to adopt 7″ tablets in big numbers, they may go back to buying new laptops since 7″ tablets are mainly for consumption and are not good at all for traditional productivity tasks. Many industry execs hope this theory is right since it could actually help laptop sales grow in 2013 instead of subtract as many have suggested it will. I believe that next year consumers will sort out which tablet is best for them and in doing so will finally determine the role the PC will handle for them in the future.

9: Apple creates a Hybrid tablet/PC with iOS

I am going out on a limb with this last prediction. But one of the more interesting developments with 10″ tablets is that if you add a Bluetooth keyboard, it becomes a mini-laptop. The Android and Windows side of the tech market are moving quickly to create tablet/laptop combo devices and business and consumers alike are showing interest in these kind of products. If these types of products gain serious traction, I believe Apple may need to respond to this growth threat in the same way they have now entered the 7″ tablet market despite the fact that Steve Jobs told everyone that Apple would never do a 7″ tablet. But imagine a sleekly designed hybrid that perhaps has the design lines of the MacBook Air but the iPad screen detaches from its ultra-thin keyboard. For lack of a better term I call it the Macbook AirPad or iPadAir. I know Tim Cook has denounced this type of design suggesting it is like attaching a “toaster to a refrigerator.” But a sleek and elegant iPad/keyboard device designed by Apple would be of interest to a lot of people, me included.

The Opinion Cast: How Does Microsoft Move Forward?

In this Opinion Cast we focused mostly on Microsoft and what they need to do going forward to continue to compete. We also got to talking about what it means that Apple will start ramping up their efforts to assemble Macs in the USA.

As always, we would love any comments or feedback on our Opinion Cast. We want this podcast to be valuable to our readers so please let us know things you like and what we can do better. Also, if you get a chance please rate it in the iTunes store.

You can also subscribe to our opinion cast in iTunes here.

Maps for iOS: What Does Google Have Against Tablets?

Google maps iPad screenshot

Google’s failure to understand that a tablet is something other than a really big phone is becoming one of the great mysteries of the technology world. The Android tablet business has been crippled by a lack of dedicated tablet apps, a situation that Google has done almost nothing to correct. Now Google has confirmed my worst fears with the release of the long-awaited Google maps for iOS.

Google maps for the iPhone is lovely. It’s better than the old Google-based iOS Maps app, adding vector maps and turn-by-turn directions. And it draws on slick search abilities and deep geographic data knowledge, the lack of which can make using Apple’s own Maps app an adventure. And Google maps integrates transit information (a feature sadly not available in the Washington, DC, area.)

But the iPad is a very different story. For whatever reason, Google did not bother to come up with a separate iPad-optimized version. Like any other iPhone app, Maps will run on the iPad, but like any other iPhone app, it looks ghastly. The picture above shows Google Maps on a  third-generation iPad in 2X mode (the alternative would be to display an iPhone-sized image in the middle of the screen.) . Scrolling and zooming is not as smooth as on the iPhone, and notice the enormous amount of screen area that is wasted by by simply scaling up the various on-screen controls.

This is all rather hard to understand, since Google should have had no trouble developing an iPad version in parallel with the phone edition. Much smaller developers do this all the time. I can only hope that Google will realize that the iPad is something more than a larger iPhone and correct the error quickly.

Google’s Directionless Map Strategy

Marco Arment on Google Maps:

What this timing (of Google Maps) really shows is how much Google needs to be on iOS. They’re primarily in the business of reaching as many people as possible so they can build up as much data and advertise to as many bodies as possible. Android is an insurance policy against their profitable businesses being locked out of other platforms, not an important profit center itself.

Google’s Android strategy is inconsistent and incomprehensible. Apple never would have created its own mapping program at all if Google hadn’t denied Apple audible turn-by-turn directions. Now – after Apple has integrated their own maps into their iOS operating system – Google gives Apple everything they ever wanted. How does that make any sense?

If Google wanted to deny Apple access to features that were on Android, then they shouldn’t have created Google Maps for iOS. If they wanted iOS eyeballs, then they should have given Apple turn-by-turn directions BEFORE Apple effectively un-integrated Google maps. The whole affair was completely counter-productive for all involved.

You can’t have it both ways. Either Google should be in the business of being on every mobile platform or Google should be in the business of Android. Trying to pursue both strategies is like trying to keep one foot on the dock and the other on the boat. You can’t get anywhere and it’s going to sink you sooner or later.

How Technology Has Touched My Life

Last week, Ben Bajarin shared the top 5 technologies that changed his life. Yesterday, Steve Wildstrom talkied about how computers had changed his life. Today, I thought I’d share a few of my old technology war stories.

VCR

When I was in college, if you missed a TV program, you missed it forever. As a result, we used to schedule our week around the programs that we wanted to watch. On Tuesday nights, everything stopped so we could watch Happy Days. My friend, Jim, never got to watch an entire episode of Charlie’s Angels because his girlfriend would just happen to call him during the show. Odd coincidence, no? On Sundays in the Fall, we would debate whether to watch football or play football. It was either or because we couldn’t do both.

Then in the summer of 1975, my brother bought what we would later call a VCR (Video Cassette Recorder). It cost him over a thousand dollars and it could only tape one show and only for a total of one hour. I was dazzled. Yet when I described the device to my college dorm mates, they were singularly unimpressed. They just couldn’t see what it was good for. Boy were they wrong.

The VCR changed my life because it freed me from the tyranny of the TV schedule. VCRs have morphed into DVRs and now I watch television on my schedule, not the network’s schedule. I hardly ever watch commercials. I never miss my favorite programs or sporting events. And I schedule my life around my needs and the needs of my family – my television programs never interfere because they are always patiently waiting in a cue for my viewing pleasure.

Mac

I was intrigued with computers from the very start. My brother owned an Apple II and I experiemented with all sorts of computers before I finally bought one. In 1984, Apple introduced the Mac. I wanted one so badly…but I couldn’t afford it. I waited until Apple introduced the “Fat Mac” – a whole 512-k of memory – in 1985 and then bought the 1984 model which only had 128 kilobytes of memory – total. There were no hard drives. The system, program and data all had to fit on a single 128-k disk. How very far we’ve come.

I won’t go into a discussion of the wonders of the mouse, the graphical user interface and the menus. Let me just say that before the Mac, I worked at understanding computers. The Mac was the first computer that tried to understand how I worked. And that has made all the difference.

Word Processing

When I was a kid, I remember writing my papers by hand. After I was done, I would often have to re-write the whole thing to make it legible. When I was in 8th grade, I learned to touch type. It was like a small miracle. I could type so much faster than I could write and it was legible too! But I still remember re-wrting my papers long into the night. And I well remember using white-out to correct my many, many typing errors.

When I encountered word processing, it was love at first sight. On-screen editing, spell and grammar checking, cut and paste. We take these all for granted now, but they were literally life changing technological breakthroughs to me. Word processing truly works the way I work. I throw my ideas onto the screen and then I go back over them again and again, editing and re-writing as I go. And it is not at all unusual for me to cut and paste large blocks of text as I arrange and re-arrange my thoughts

You may take the word processor for granted but I never will. I well know that I could never go back to writing my drafts by hand or even writing them on a typewriter. The word processor does not just help me to write my thoughts. It helps me to shape and create those thoughts too.

GPS

I am geographically challenged…which is a nice way of saying that I have no sense of direction. GPS has literally changed my life and what I would not have given to have had it available earlier in my life.

Heck, I thought it was a miracle when Mapquest came out. I would sit at my desk and print out maps to any location that I wished to visit. It showed me the way even if I’d never been there before. But if I went off route, the jig was up. I’d never find my way back on course.

I bought in-car GPS units just as soon as I could afford them. Their greatest asset was the ability to re-route. Make a wrong turn? No problem. The GPS would sort it all out and tell me how to get back on course.

Today, GPS is almost all the way there. Last night I told my phone to “Drive me to such and such” and without missing a beat, it found the desired location and gave me turn-by-turn directions on how to get there. GPS isn’t quite there yet. But it is oh so very close. And for someone like me, that’s like a tiny miracle happening every single day.

iPhone

The iPhone changed everything for me because it is not really a phone at all. It is a small computer that you can put in your pocket. It ties everything else I’ve talked about together. I can watch Youtube or Netflix or download a movie or TV show to be watched at my pleasure and at my leisure. I can type out short text messages or long emails. I can use it for GPS. And I can do everything I did on my Mac and so very much more.

My journey in computing started with the Mac. But today I have the power of yesterday’s mainframe and all the knowledge of the internet in my pocket at all times.

Conclusion

When I was a kid, we thought that we’d have laser beams that would cut down trees and computers that would be as big as buildings. It seems to me that we expected technology to get bigger but instead it has gotten smaller. Lasers are powerful but not because they do big things but because they do small things like laser surgery. Computers are powerful but not because they are bigger but because they are smaller and more personal.

Technology has freed my time, helped me to get where I want to go, helped me to create, shape and express my thoughts and placed the power of computing and the internet in my hand. What has technology done for you? Please share your thoughts and experiences on how technology has touched your life in the comments, below.

How To Make Windows 8 Great

Del XPS Duo 12 Convertible
There has been a lot of discussion here lately, both in posts such as Why IT buyers are Excited About Convertibles and Hybrids and Microsoft Surface: How Relevant Are Legacy Apps and Hardware? about the failings and the potential of Windows 8. So inspired by these posts, and even more so by readers’ comments on them, here is a radical if only partially baked idea: How about a hybrid operating system for hybrid devices?

In Metro (I’m going to go on calling it that until Microsoft comes up with a real alternative), Microsoft has designed a very good user interface for tablets and touch-based apps. The legacy Windows Desktop is still an excellent UI for a traditional mouse-and-keyboard PC. But in bolting the two together in Windows 8 and, to a lesser extent, Windows RT, Microsoft has created a very ugly two-headed calf. The tendency of Metro to pop up while you are working in Desktop, and for Desktop to be necessary for some tasks even while in touch mode, renders both interfaces far from optimal.

Microsoft should do three things. The easiest is to get Metro out of Desktop by allowing booting into Desktop and restoring traditional UI elements, such as a start menu, that were removed from Windows 8.  Fixing Metro is harder. Basically, Microsoft has to finish the job by creating features, utilities, and apps that allow the user to do everything in the touch interface. The toughest challenge is Metrofying Office. It would be extremely difficult to recreate all the functionality of Word, Excel, and the rest in a tablet app and almost certainly unwise to try. Instead, Microsoft has to pick a core feature set that can work in a touch interface on relatively small screens and build the applications around these. (If reports are to be believed, Microsoft is doing this for iOS and Android anyway; why not Windows?)

But the really cool thing would be hybrid Windows for hybrids, a shape-shifting operating system designed for a new generation of devices that can convert from traditional PCs to tablets (the forthcoming Surface Pro probably belongs in this class.) Why not an OS that presents the traditional Desktop UI when the device is being used with a keyboard and touchpad or mouse, then converts instantly and automatically to a touch-first Metro-type UI when the device transforms?

The key to making this work is the use of solid state storage, which allows for very fast saving and restoration of state. I envision a system where you could be editing a Word file in Desktop, then switch to tablet mode, where you make some changes to the file in the touch version of Word. When you switch back to Desktop, Word would still be open with your file, but it would include the edits made in tablet. I suspect that the Desktop and Metro versions of programs would still have to be different applications and this would require closing and reopening of files when switching modes. But SSDs can make this happen so quickly that the user will barely notice.

I’m not suggesting this is at all a trivial job or that in can be done very quickly. The Office project alone is a very large undertaking, one that I can only presume is already underway, although Microsoft has been totally silent about it. There is a great deal of work beyond that, and third-party software vendors would have to get on board with mode-switchable versions of their applications.  But the result would be new and exciting computing experience.

How I Met My Computer: Technologies That Changed My Life

IBM 7090 (IBM Corp.)

I got into computers because I was fascinated by a friend’s programming manual. It was at the University of Michigan, probably in early 1966, when I had my first look at The MAD Manual, a beguiling guide to the Michigan Algorithm Decoder that borrowed from both Mad magazine and Alice in Wonderland. I was hooked, got a student account, and taught myself to program, which in those days meant pounding out your code on an IBM 026 keypunch, turning in your program deck, and getting output in a day or so.

MAD, a derivative of the now largely forgotten Algol language, was uncommonly elegant and powerful for its day. But the IBM 7090 mainframe on which it ran was soon replaced by a monster System/360-67. It came with time-sharing terminals, but no MAD, so we all had to learn Fortran IV and some 360 Assembler. (Bonus question: What was a Green Card? Hint: It had nothing to do with immigration law.) By then I was working on a thesis that used a big data set and while we had access to lots of canned subroutines to do data analysis (the collection became SPSS), you had to write the code to glue them together and handle input and output. I became a programmer–not a terribly good one–in spite of myself.

Apple 2 (Cokumbia University)After graduating from college, I mostly left computers aside for a few years. Journalists in those days wrote on typewriters–manuals, mostly. Editors cut and pasted, literally, with scissors and rubber cement, then sent their copy off to typesetting or gave it to a Teletype operator for transmission. But in 1979 or ’80, I played with an Apple ][ at a friend’s house and knew I had to have one. I didn’t know what I might do with it, but I knew I needed one. I got an Apple ][+ with a monochrome monitor and two floppy drives . One of the first things I did with it was the “shift-key mod,” jumpering a pin on the keyboard connector to a pin on a chip on the motherboard; this allowed the Apple to type and display lower-case letters.

I spent many happy hours with my ][+; I mastered Zork, my kids learned to program on it, and it was the only computer I ever understood at a deep level. For some reason, I still remember that you generated a beep from the internal speaker by writing to memory location 2030, and you could make a kind of music by controlling the frequency of POKEs. By the mid 80s, I was doing most work-related stuff on an MS-DOS machine, but through many successor PCs and Macs, I never lost my affection for that original Apple. For me, the personal computer has never again been as personal.

XyWrite III screen shotBy the mid 1980s, BusinessWeek‘s New York editorial operations were running on a VAX-based Atex system but bureaus were still using typewriters. The time had come to computerize. We had no IT staff resident in Washington. I didn’t know much, but I knew more than anyone else, so the job of supervising setup of the computers and installation of a local area network fell to me. We used proprietary 3Com networking software and servers. But the key tool was XyWrite, a DOS text word processor created by folks from Atex. It was by far the most advanced word processor of its time, fast, flexible, and powerful. It was ideally suited to the needs of the publishing industry and let us mimic many of the functions of the expensive Atex system on cheap hardware. XyWrite was amazingly customizable. An acquaintance created a XyWrite template that could be used to create weaving drafts for setting up looms. Internally, we customized it  to the point where a story in XyWrite could be fit against a magazine layout.

The big problem was that our LAN in Washington had no way to communicate properly with the Atex system in New York. We could send files into the system and they sent output back to our printers. The two systems communicated, such as it was, using custom software and hardware created by a company that had long since disappeared. No one knew quite how it worked and we just had to treat it as a black box. The crowning achievement of  my career as a developer was overseeing creation of a program that solved the communication program that made our LAN look like a single teletype machine. Incoming messages were received by a server, parsed for addresses (four-character Teletype codes), and in addition to being printed, were directed to the inboxes of recipients on our 3Com local-only mail system. It was a hideous kludge, but it worked and was used for several years.

cc:Mail boxIn time, we moved to a real email program, cc:Mail, that not only linked all our offices but provided gateways that connected us to the world. I had been using MCI Mail and CompuServe mail for some time, but cc:Mail (later acquired by Lotus) was a huge breakthrough. Without the help or, indeed, the knowledge of our corporate IT folks, we set up  an internet connection with a small local ISP and an SMTP gateway. (I also registered the domain mh.com. It’s still owned by McGraw-Hill, but inactive. The ought to sell it–two-letter .com domains are worth something.) Email quickly went from being a better way to send messages internally to a primary way of doing business. Our network also gave us very early access to the rest of the internet, including the nascent World Wide Web, though it was some years before that became very useful.

In 1994, I gave up managing this stuff (as a sideline to my day job as deputy bureau chief) and took up writing about technology full time. Finally what had been more or less a hobby for nearly 30 years became my occupation. It was a time of tremendous change in the personal technology business, which was just on the cusp of moving from early adopters to a true mass market. (My very first “Technology & You” column took a look at the updates Apple Newton MessagePad 110 and a would-be competitor called the Motorola Envoy. I presciently predicted that such devices required reliable, reasonably fast wireless communications to be useful. Less prescient was my belief that the Magic Cap operating system that powered the Envoy had a future.)

I all my years reviewing devices, there were very few products that I believed at first glance would really change the game. One turned up in early 1996, when Ed Colligan stopped by my office with an early production unit of the Palm Pilot. Those first Palms had no wireless communications,  but the computer sync (over an RS-232 serial cable!) was, for its time, a masterpiece of simplicity, as was the device itself. It was a very Apple-esque design–many of the Palm folks had deep roots in the Apple world–and it set the standard for what Apple would accomplish a decade later with the iPhone and iPad.

BlackBerry 850 photo (Research In Motion)The second came in 1999, when Mike Lazaridis showed up with the first BlackBerry. It was basically a two-way pager–it ran on a paging network–that differed from existing devices in two critical ways: It had a tiny, curved keyboard that you could actually type on with reasonable speed. And it had a network back end that reliably and securely exchanged mail with corporate servers. The BlackBerry, probably more than any other device, changed the way I and millions of others worked. It meant that for better or worse, if you had network coverage–and the coverage of that slow pager network was in many ways more ubiquitous than today’s 3G and 4G networks–you were in the office. At a time when remote access to corporate networks from a laptop was a very iffy thing, this anytime, anywhere connectivity was a huge breakthrough.

The last few years in tech have really been wonderful ones, but I have been saddened by the demise of Palm and the decline of Research In Motion. These are companies that produced products that changed my life, and the world.

 

 

Microsoft Surface: How Relevant Are Legacy Apps and Hardware?

Microsoft Surface has been on sale for a while now and reviews  are out where reviewers tell the public what they thought about their experiences. The reviews varied widely as I illustrate below, but I wanted to spend some time digging into one of the more controversial topics, Surface’s backward compatibility with legacy hardware and software.

Early Reviews Mixed
The headlines and results for the early reviews were mixed, ranging from ZDNet’s Ed Bott “enthusiastically recommended” to Gizmodo’s Sam Biddle “this is technological heartbreak” and everything in-between. Why the big disparity?

The big disparity comes from the different way reviewers approach their personal experiences, their projected experiences and the time frames in mind. Most of the positive review comments are coming from today’s sophisticated hardware and the potential for an improved software experience in future. The more negative comments involve the here and now software experience, primarily around the kind and numbers of apps in the Windows Store. Those reviewers who didn’t find the apps they wanted also pointed out that Surface cannot run legacy Windows apps. Some of those reviewers made it sound somewhat like Microsoft will make no future improvements down the line. This is a bit unfair in that Microsoft will improve the software experience, but, if a consumer does order a Surface today, this is what they are getting today. Thus we see the importance of having everything in place on day one of the reviews.

Product reviews reflect a snapshot in time of the reviewer’s personal experiences, sophistication levels, favorite software, preferred ecosystem and usage patterns. If you are like the reviewer, then it should work out well for you. Better yet, choose a friend you know who has the product and ask them what they think about it.

Is Windows Desktop Software Important?
One important thing for consumers to ask when considering Surface is whether they want to load any of the current Windows desktop apps they own today or if they will want to buy and install new Windows desktop apps in the future. Surface owners must select and buy all their “Metro-style” apps from the Microsoft store but cannot buy or load Windows “Desktop-style” apps.

Surface comes pre-loaded with full (not trial) versions of high quality Microsoft productivity apps Word, Excel and Powerpoint, so the basics of productivity are covered. Will consumers miss loading their older Windows software or buying new Windows desktop software? It depends. It’s not as simple as asking snarky questions like, “do iPad users miss this,” and moving on. It really comes down to perception and reality of what consumers will want to do with the tablet.

Shopper sophistication will run the gamut and the more sophisticated users will make a more surgical decision tree. All things equal, they will ask, “what programs do I run today and want tomorrow on my Windows 7 PC that I would want to run on my Surface tablet?”

All things equal like price, weight, brand and battery life, I want my tablet to run a few key apps that aren’t in the Microsoft Store or I just prefer in a desktop mode. For me, I want the following desktop apps to run on my tablet: Wizard101 and Pirate101 games for my son, Google Chrome web browser, and Evernote. Other consumers may want to run apps like World of Warcraft, iTunes, Microsoft Outlook, Picasa, VLC PLayer or Quicken.

The biggest challenge comes down to naming, unfortunately. When some uneducated consumers hear “Windows”, they could think they can load Windows software and “Windows”, albeit “RT”, will be splashed across every piece of marketing collateral. I believe some consumers will see “Windows” and buy Surface thinking it runs their older Windows desktop apps. Other consumers will view Surface more like an iPad or Kindle Fire and not care at all. I think this will be a short-term challenge until the entire ecosystem gets educated on the differences between Windows 8 and RT and consumer’s favorite apps become available in the Windows Store.

Is Legacy Hardware Important?
Another important thing consumers need to consider is whether they want to “fully” run all their currently-owned peripherals with Surface. These are peripherals like webcams, mice, printer-scanners, game controllers, label makers, receipt scanners, etc. At this point, no one publicly knows which legacy peripherals will work perfectly, work without special capabilities provided by desktop software, or not run at all. There will be new devices or relabeling of older devices as “Windows RT” compatible, but for other devices, it isn’t a known entity.

Let me use a personal example to illustrate my point. I have an HP printer/scanner/fax machine and a Neat sheet scanner for receipts, business cards and documents. On my HP today, I can scan a document in and it magically shows up as a PDF file in “My Documents” folder. Also, when I am printing I can set quality levels and the paper tray. My Neat scanner uses software where I repeatedly change features like color-BxW, dual sided, ignore blank sheets and collated scanning. Will these features work with Surface? I don’t know and I don’t know when or if I will know unless I have a Surface to use. For the record, neither my iPad or Nexus tablets support any of these special features.

Will this become an issue? The answer is the same as the one above on desktop software. It will depend on the user, their knowledge, their expectations of a device with a Windows brand and their experiences with other tablet devices. For those users who equate Windows with backwards peripheral connectivity, it will be an issue as they won’t know until they buy it and something doesn’t work as expected. Like legacy software, legacy hardware is a short term issue and should work itself over time.

What’s the Impact?
I believe even with all the Surface goodness, its lack of support for legacy Windows desktop software and legacy peripherals will continue to subtract from reviews and perceptions on the consumer side and particularly on the enterprise side. Enterprises use more of their head and less of their heart as IT is about business, not new and shiny objects. However, the legacy objections will die down on the consumer side over the next year as more high quality apps get added to the Windows Store and everyone gets proper expectations set. Right or wrong, given enterprise’s fixation on legacy everything, I can see a more protracted time-frame for them to get comfortable with Surface. I’m very interested to see the reviews in a few days on Intel’s Clover Trail-based Windows 8 tablets that compare the experience to Surface and other Windows RT-based devices.

As for impact to sales, that is a much more complex question which I will address in another column.

Note: This column previously appeared on Forbes.com.

Toward a More Informed Discussion on Android

There are a lot of things that bother me about the discussion among the pundits related to Android. John Kirk has done a great job looking at the business issues around Android from a business perspective so I am not going to rehash those points. You can read them all eloquently stated by John in his series which you can find here. Rather, I would like a take a deeper look at the platform truths related to Android.

Who Cares About Market Share?

The first thing I want to talk about briefly is the pundits and the media’s obsession with market share. There was a time when market share mattered and it was during the maturity cycle of the PC industry. The reason we cared about market share, and in this case Microsoft’s, was because the market was maturing and thus needed a standard to center around, build hardware around, build software and accessories around, etc., in order to mature it. Now that the market is mature, market share is less important than people think to the overall industry. Primarily because there will no longer be on single OS dominating the landscape but rather there will be many which together equal the whole pie. Many ecosystems and platforms can and will continue to co-exist. How many? As many as developers will support and write software for.

As long as developers can make a healthy living supporting a specific platform, no matter how large—or small—its market share, that platform will exist.

From what I can gather there are two groups to whom any bit of market share discussion is relevant to, developers and those who wish the demise of competing platforms. It is unwise and uninformed to be in the latter.

What Do We Mean When We Say Android?

This is the core of the issue that I think gets overlooked. Android is in no way shape or form the same as OS X, Windows, iOS, Windows Phone, or RIM’s Blackberry OS. When we speak of those operating systems we are speaking of a unified platform controlled by one company whose platform share represents the total addressable market, via single SDK, for developers. Should a developer want to develop for any of those platforms, all they need do is get the SDK for that single platform. Android, however, is an entirely different beast.

Because Android is open source, all the term Android refers to is the AOSP, or Android Open Source Project. Anyone can take this core code and create their own custom operating system using Android as the core. Google created and manages the AOSP but also has their own version of Android. Amazon does this and has their own version of Android. Barnes and Noble does this and has their own version of Android. I would not be shocked if new entrants as well take the Android platform and make it their own for their own needs as well. Android is not actually a platform, it is an enabling technology that allows companies to create platforms. A commenter gave the smart analogy a few weeks ago that Android is more like a BIOS.

All of this is fine and good and to be honest I am glad Android exists for the reasons that great companies can take it and build exciting hardware. Whether or not this is why Google released Android into the world is an entirely different discussion. What’s more to the point is that when we talk or read about Android market share, we need to understand that number only applies to Android as it relates to an underlying open source framework.

The reality is Android’s market share is broken up into the many different versions that exist, all with separate developer SDKs. So If I was to actually break the market into the computing platforms which exist for developers the list would look like this:

Proprietary Platforms
– OS X
– iOS
– Windows
– Windows Phone
– Blackberry OS

AOSP Platforms
– Amazon Kindle Fire platform
– Barnes and Noble Nook HD platform
– Google Android Platform
– Other

All of those platforms I just mentioned (including other which I will address in a moment) have their own app stores and/or their own developer SDKs.

So what is other? Other represents the incredibly complex and nuanced regions like China, India, and other emerging markets. These regions have a rapidly increasing number of Android devices in them, yet they have no unified app stores and no benefit to any of the players mentioned above with AOSP versions of Android, including Google.

Now when it comes to smartphones, for now it’s Google’s version of Android vs. other, since neither Amazon or Barnes and Noble make a phone—yet. So to dive deeper into a recent market share estimation that Android has 75% of the smartphone market, means we need to understand what percent of that is Google Android vs. other. Which would be a whole lot easier if Google would tell us, which they won’t.

The fascinating part of this is related to China. Consider this a first in a two part series, where in the next one, which will come next week, I will take a deeper dive to the complex environment that is the China market for smartphones and specifically what is happening with Android in China. China is the wild wild West at the moment and a fascinating market to study. Until then, however, I leave you with a few articles.

The first is by Ben Evans and his recent Forbes column entitled:
Android, China and Addressable Markets

The second is an article in TechAsia entitled:
Chinese apps are bypassing Google’s Play Store, giving Android apps straight to Users

I highly recommend those articles as a primer for what I will dive into next week.

Why Apple Manufacturing Needs Few Workers

Old photo of women on assembly line (National Park Service)

Apple CEO Tim Cook’s announcement that the company would do some Mac assembly in the U.S. brought on a flurry of publicity vastly disproportionate to the importance of the development. It’s good that manufacturers see opportunities for U.S. operations for a variety of reasons, but a big surge of employment isn’t one of them. Dan Luria, a labor economists with the Michigan Manufacturing Technology Center was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the Apple operation is likely to add only 200 jobs.

That’s not surprising to anyone who has visited a modern manufacturing facility, or who has seen only pictures of crowded Chinese assembly lines. Most factory work these days, especially in high-tech operations, is done by machines, not people (this is how a manufacturing company like Intel achieved revenues of more than half a million dollars per employee last year.)

The change is most striking in electronics assembly. Circuit board manufacture used to require humans to mount components on boards and solder them in place. Today, components have shrunk to the point where it is difficult at best for humans to place them with sufficient accuracy and impossible to solder by hand. Instead, high-precision robots place the parts on boards, which are then soldered in a quick trip through an induction furnace. Many Chinese factories still use lots of people for final assembly jobs because labor has been cheaper than robots; this is changing fast as Chinese wage rates rise.

A narrowing wage differential is one reason manufacturing in the U.S. is becoming more attractive. Rising shipping costs is another. As Quentin Hardy wrote in the New York Times Bits blog:

“The labor cost on a notebook, which is about 4 to 5 percent of the retail price, is only slightly higher than the cost of shipping by air. Soon even that is likely to change because of the twin forces of lower manufacturing costs from automation and higher transportation costs from rising global activity.”

The good news is that while the jobs are fewer, they are much better than most old factory work. Machines have taken over the heavy, dirty, dangerous jobs. (During my one summer of factory work, I spend a couple of weeks on the  shipping line, sealing boxes, and applying shipping labels and postage. Back then, this was all done with glued tape and labels and I ended each shift covered head to waist in glue. I would have paid the robot myself to escape.) The jobs that remain are more for technicians than operatives. They require higher skills and generally offer higher pay and certainly better working conditions.

Why Windows 8 Drives Me Nuts

Windows 8 screen shotI had a hard drive fail in a couple-year-old ThinkPad this week, so I decided to use the opportunity to install Windows 8 on a completely clean system. The installation was painless except for a bit of difficulty in getting Wi-Fi working. But there was one problem. The system was annoyingly going to sleep after too short an interval.

I’ve changed this setting dozens of times on previous versions of Windows. In Windows 7, you select Control Panel on the start menu, choose Power Options, and click on “Change when the computer sleeps.” This works, albeit in a clunky way, in Windows 8. You open Desktop, bring up the Charms bar, select the Settings charm, and click  Control Panel. It takes a few extra clicks and is not at all intuitive, but it’s not too bad once you have figured it out.

But it seems to me that if Metro–or whatever Microsoft wants us to call it–is the user interface of the future, there ought to be some way to perform a basic function like this without falling back on the desktop. This is especially true on a Windows 8 tablet, where the touch-unfriendliness of the Desktop becomes a real issue.

The best I could do to stay in Metro was: From the Start screen, bring up the Charms bar and select the Search charm. Pick Settings as the search domain and start typing “sleep.”  “Change when the computer sleeps” pops up; click it and the control panel opens. Of course, at this point, you are back in Desktop. Again, this method to perform a simple task seems totally unintuitive, especially since if you type “screen” or “display” in the search box you are not offered the sleep option.

This is just one more example of how Windows 8 often feels like two operating systems roughly bolted together. If you could work consistent in one of the UIs, say Desktop on a conventional laptop and Metro on a tablet, Windows 8 wouldn’t be bad. But if there’s a way to avoid jumping back and forth (without resorting to third-party UI modifications), I haven’t found it. And it makes Windows 8 a trying experience.

 

Microsoft, IBM, and AT&T: History Comes Around

IBM, AT&T, and Microsoft logos

In his post “Why the Wheels Are Falling Off at Microsoft,” John Kirk paints a bleak picture of the company’s future. It got me thinking about a relevant bit of history about how rich companies handle existential challenges. Around 1990, IBM and AT&T found themselves in similar, difficult positions. The iconic companies had been among the dominant forces of the 20th century, but their world was changing in very unpleasant ways. Each had been through a long and wrenching antitrust battle with the government; AT&T’s loss cost it the local phone business in a breakup, IBM’s victory cost it more than a decade of heavy distraction. Each was seeing its core business eroded by technological change: Satellites and new networking technologies were lowering the barriers to entry into AT&T’s lucrative long distance business, while minicomputers and PCs were eating away at IBM’s mainframe dominance. But each company also had a tremendous advantage–the enormous cash flow from its legacy businesses could buy the time needed for reinvention. It’s what happened next that is important for the future of Microsoft.

IBM turned to new leadership, hiring Louis Gerstner, who had earned his stripes at RJR Nabisco and American Express. He put IBM through a meat grinder that included the dumping of whole divisions and massive layoffs of employees, many of whom had been with the company for years. But the IBM that emerged was fierce  and focused, ready to take advantage of a booming technology market. Today IBM is again one of the country’s most successful companies.

AT&T , by contrast, used its money for what turned out to be a calamitous series of acquisitions. The post-breakup AT&T desperately wanted to get into the computer business  and in 1991, it bought NCR Corp. for $33 billion. The company launched an unsuccessful series of minicomputers and lost billions getting into, then out of, the PC business. NCR was spun out in 1997. In 1994, AT&T bought the two-thirds of McCaw Wireless it didn’t already own for $11.5 billion.  This acquisition, too, withered under new ownership and AT&T ended up spinning the wireless business out as an independent company that eventually became Cingular.

In the most humiliating deal of all, AT&T in 1998 bought Tele-Communications Inc., the country’s second-largest cable operator, for $48 billion. After spending many billions to upgrade the network, AT&T sold its cable operations to Comcast for $45 billion. These failed attempts to get into new businesses left AT&T an empty husk with a proud history, a valuable brand, and an aging backbone network. In 2005, SBC, a company born of the merger of AT&T Bell System subsidiaries, bought what was left of its former corporate parent and assumed its name. The AT&T name and its T stock symbol lived on, but the company founded by Alexander Graham Bell was gone.

Like AT&T and IBM, Microsoft was battered by a long antitrust battle with the government. Like them, it is having serious problems coming up with an adequate response to technological and competitive change eating away at its core businesses. And like them, it still has a lot of money coming in that will make a transition possible.

The question is, which model will Microsoft follow, AT&T or IBM? Will it emerge as a chastened, perhaps smaller, but very competitive company? Or will it just slowly fade away? The money gives it time to fix things, but it has to make key decisions about what sort of future it wants soon, and whether the leadership the company now has can get it there.

Why IT buyers are Excited About Convertibles and Hybrids

[dc]W[/dc]hen Steve Jobs introduced the iPad in 2010, he went to great pains to emphasize that the iPad was mainly for content and media consumption. Interestingly, he never even suggested that it could also be used for any form of productivity. But in a subtle way, he did push its role in productivity. That came via a very short announcement handled by Apple’s Sr. VP of marketing, Phil Schiller when he stated that Apple would also create versions of Pages, Numbers and Keynote for the iPad when it launched.

From the iPad’s entry into the marketplace, consumers immediately determined that they would like to have productivity apps and business related programs, along with their music, videos and basic email. Within two months of its launch, companies like SAP, Oracle, Salesforce.com and many others started to buy iPads and began writing business related apps as a part of their pilot programs. Also, many IT managers anticipated quite correctly that the iPad would be added to the list of consumer devices they would need to support based on the BYOD trends that started with smartphones.

Of course, the key to supporting smartphones and tablets in IT is MDM (mobile device management) software. Apple was smart enough to put hooks available for most 3rd party MDM programs thus making it possible to adopt iPads within IT programs relatively quickly. Surprisingly, Google and its Android OS did not architect these hooks in early releases of this OS and consequently, it missed the early stages of IT integration of tablets into their programs. Only recently has Google addressed this issue and we should see more Android tablets being modestly accepted into IT deployments in the future.

Once the iPad got into business settings, the work-flow of a user changed. In the past, they would take a laptop to meetings and use it to access information they might need for that meeting. But once the iPad came out, the laptop stayed on the desk and instead they took the iPad with them. This is especially true for companies who wrote their own programs so all of the key data a person might need in a meeting was available now on their iPad too.

But there is one technology developed for the iPad that I don’t think Apple anticipated. Almost from the beginning, Bluetooth keyboards designed specifically for the iPad started showing up. Over time, companies like Logitech created keyboards that even look like a cover for the iPad in its design as they did with their Logitech Ultrathin keyboard cover. In fact, the addition of a keyboard to an iPad virtually assured that an iPad could now be a real productivity tool in its own right.

But there is an 80%-20% rule that is in play here that makes life for IT managers more difficult. This rule states that 80% of what you can do on a laptop can now be done on a tablet. However, that 20% is tied to what we call heavy lifting tasks, such as graphic design, large spreadsheets, data management, creating major reports or documents, etc. The bottom line is that business users still need a laptop or desktop even if they have a tablet to supplement more of their mobile computing needs during the day.
This means that they now have to support a laptop, tablet and/or smartphone, and with many of these coming in the back door via BYOD (bring your own device).

New Corporate Hardware

In our research discussions with some IT managers, they have told us that they would like to minimize the amount of products that they support and are seriously eyeing what we call hybrids or convertibles that can do heavy lifting, yet serve as a truly mobile tablet in a single device. We define convertibles as a tablet/laptop combo where the screen does not detach, such as Lenovo’s Yoga. Hybrids we define as tablet/keyboard solutions where the screen does detach and serves by itself as a pure slate tablet. At the moment the industry interchanges these definitions but that should sort it self out in the near future.

The Good News and the Bad News

The good news is that the PC OEMs also saw this demand and consumer/IT interest in these types of products and are all moving forward with innovative designs. Lenovo, HP, Dell, Acer and others all have solid offerings in place that give the IT directors an option to have a single device that works as a full PC as well as a stand alone tablet. Given IT managers desire to streamline the amount of products they have to support, we believe that hybrids and convertibles are a sleeper device that will be in great demand next year by business users of all types, including SMB. It would not surprise us if consumers who want to do more productivity on their laptops increase the demand for hybrids and convertibles as well.

The bad news for these OEMs is that this could impact demand for traditional laptops in the future. The PC market has declined this year and its growth going forward will be anemic at best. Tablets have been a major disruptor in many ways. For example, consumers tell us if they can do 80% of what they do on a laptop now on their tablet, they may just extend the life of their current PC or laptop since it mostly sits idle. Or, if they do buy a new laptop or PC, they will buy a cheap one with updated processors and memory knowing full well it will be used less and less as tablets meet most of their needs.

But for IT managers, merging the two into one has a lot of merit for them, especially if the hybrids and convertibles have enough power and battery life to handle the heavy lifting tasks that will continue to be important to a business user. The fact that these products will be serviced as a single device, instead of two, is a key reason that we believe hybrids and convertibles will become a major growth segment in IT sales. It would not surprise us if savvy consumers move in this direction too since a dual-purpose product in many ways can be attractive to them to for similar support and economic reasons.

Macs Were Already Being Assembled in the USA

News about Apple looking to have more of their Mac line of products assembled in the USA made for interesting headlines today. What is interesting is that some amount of Macs were already being assembled here in the USA. iFixit, with its tear down of the latest iMac, noted this picture and wording on the back.

Credit: iFixit

The news that grabbed headlines today was that Apple intended to invest in more assembly of USA assembled products in their Mac line. This means a larger ramp and scale up of US made assembly of those products starting in 2013. This is of course pertinent and a big deal that volume US manufacturing of Macs will ramp in 2013. I find it interesting that Apple has already been assembling, in low volume, some products in the Mac line for some time. In fact you can find in forum threads going back to at least 2006, people mentioning that their Mac Pros had the Assembled in the USA wording. And obviously for the new iMac to have the wording iFixit found stating it was assembled in the USA, we are talking about some level of assembly of Macs which has been in place for some time. Perhaps everyone already knew this, but I hadn’t seen it get much attention. Of course, as Apple begins to ramp US based manufacturing, thing become very interesting.

I’ve heard the argument from some pundits that this initial investment and step to build more products in the USA is a PR stunt from Apple, to which I wholeheartedly disagree. Apple is one of few companies for whom it makes sense to diversify assembly and manufacturing for certain products. Note that this doesn’t apply to all product lines but I believe it certainly does for some. I have to believe that for Apple to have made this move it makes sound business sense from a long-term strategic standpoint, as well as from a capital expenditures standpoint.

Elements of glass (pabels), semiconductors, cables, and other raw materials for many electronics are actually made in the US. So it is not like everything that goes into electronics is made in China. Apple also has a streamlined process, with their Mac line in particular, due to the uni-body designs of much of their hardware.

There is also some speculation as to which Macs will be made in the US. My understanding is not that it is limited to one line but can and may very well include some degree of all Macs.

Tech manufacturing has never really been in the US. In the early days of the PC many things were assembled here but it very low volume. High-tech electronics manufacturing in high volume has never been in the USA. What Apple is doing is a huge step in the right direction to help foster and develop the necessary expertise to support some level of high-tech US manufacturing.

The key point is not that Apple is bringing high-tech manufacturing jobs back to the US. Many of those jobs never existed in the first place. This is a baby step move in the right direction to actually create new types of jobs. Ones that may extend to many other industries and segments as 3D printing and nano-technology help to create the hardware renaissance I believe we are on the forefront of.

I have been watching, and hoping that a move like this would happen for a while and I seriously hope it is a trend not isolated to one high-tech giant.