Android is Finally Ready for the Tablet Market

Over the last few weeks, Android for Tablets (aka Honeycomb) 3.2 started rolling out to tablets like the Asus Transformer and the Motorola Xoom. While the announcement of Android 3.1 was met with great fanfare at Google I/O 2011, Android 3.2 didn’t receive a lot of attention as it started actually rolling out to systems. Ironically, I believe that with the rollout of Android 3.2, the operating system is finally ready for tablet prime-time.

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Background

Android 3.X, aka “Honeycomb”, is Google’s operating system for tablets. It was first shown at CES 2011 and the first product it rolled out on was the Motorola Xoom. After its launch, the firestorm ensued and Honeycomb was viewed as having significant issues:

  • Sluggish performance even while having superior hardware specs.
  • Lack of stability and reliability as evidenced through repeated application crashes.
  • Lack of apps. Even as of July 1, 2011, NY Times David Pogue reported that at the most, 232 apps were optimized for Honeycomb. The iPad had 90,000 optimized apps. To make matters worse, Android phone apps ran in a tiny window.
  • Lack of external SD card support. Just do a few Google searches on “SD card” and “Xoom” and you will know what I am talking about.
  • Limited USB connectivity. Keyboards, mice, digital cameras, card readers either didn’t work at all or were very inconsistent.

Needless to say, this didn’t exactly equate to a very good experience, as I have personally experienced on three separate 10” Android Honeycomb tablets.

Improved Performance, Stability and Reliability

Between Android 3.0 and 3.2, my Honeycomb experience is like night and day. Single-tasking responsiveness is close to the iPad 2, although the iPad 2 is still faster. Honeycomb does outperform iPad 2 on multitasking though.

When I use a tablet, I use it as a primary device. I load around 20-30 apps, and I do set up the background tasks and widgets as they are differentiated features versus the iPad. Where I previously experienced between 10-20 application crashes a day, with Android 3.2, I may get one a day. This is a huge breakthrough. And yes, I do get application crashes on the iPad 2. iPad 2 crashes are less pronounced and “hidden” as the app just dies and you are taken to the home screen. In Android, a dialogue box pops up on the screen and you are given the choice to wait, kill, or report the crash.

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Improved Application Support

Android 3.2 added the capability for users to better tap into the library of approximately 300-400K applications. Applications come in three forms that are somewhat transparent to the user:

  1. Tablet optimized apps: Resolution, layout, fonts, content are optimized for the tablet.
  2. Stretched phone apps: Phone applications are stretched to tablet dimensions keeping phone layout, fonts, and content. In some apps this is automatic; in others it requires the user to toggle a menu icon in the apps bar.
  3. Zoomed phone apps: Fixed-size phone applications are zoomed in like the iPad phone apps. In some apps this is automatic; in others it requires the user to toggle a menu icon in the apps bar.

If a user runs across a a manually scaled-app, they are given the option to stretch or zoom. Many of the apps, though, were automatic and stretched properly into place.

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Here is how some of the top Android phone apps look on Android Honeycomb 3.2 tablet.

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As you can see, some of the phone apps look really good and others could be improved. The net-net is that Android Honeycomb tablet buyers just got 300K-400K more apps to run on their tablets.

Conclusion

Like the first Android phone OS, the Android tablet OS has quickly undergone a massive overhaul and improvement in a mere 6 months. The most recent improvements in Android Honeycomb 3.2 were virtually unnoticed by many in the press, but ironically, the update improved the experience to the point that Android is finally ready for prime-time.

So does a massively improved experience guarantee success? Of course not. Android still has to deal with its IP challenges, fragmentation, spotty paid video services, and some “me-too” hardware designs, BUT, if you don’t first have a responsive, reliable experience with lots of apps, you have nothing. And Android finally has that for tablets.

Have your say in the comments section below.


Why Google Should Buy Motorola

Article Disclaimer: This is all theory and purely speculative. This is simply a thought exercise.

Motorola has been an interesting company to watch over the past 10 years. They have been a driving force in bringing the cellular industry into fruition and recently Motorola spun out their mobile business and created Motorola Mobility. I find an intruiguing scenario to play out to be one where Google buys Motorola Mobility.

One particular reason this is interetsing is because Motorola Mobility is deeply committed to Android. In fact as of now it appears that the company is solely basing its future on Android. Recent reports indicate an interest in Windows Phone 7 and possibly 8 by Motorola but it doesn’t appear actual product plans exist.

Motorola’s challenge is that they are attempting something that is becoming increasingly difficult in the industry today, namely to make money on hardware alone. To make matters even more challenging they have decided to bet their future on a company who is less interested in helping companies make money on hardware and more interested in free.

In fact I am convinced that Google and the Android team in particular would prefer that Android handsets cost less rather than more.

All of that leads to the first major reason I think Google would benefit greatly from buying Motorola Mobility.

Google Could Practically Give The Hardware Away
Google has already demonstrated an interesting model regarding Chrome that basically presents a hardware as a service model. In this model Google is offering Chrome OS hardware to the business and IT community for $28 a month and to educational institutions for $20 a month. There we have it, a hardware as a service model and Google is already going down this path.

So why not consider this same approach with Android handsets? This is not feasible currently because a company like Motorola needs to make money on the hardware since they don’t get to participate on the services financial upside like a carrier and Google. However if Google bought Motorola they could sell the hardware at a loss and make it up with their backend services.

A strategy very similar to what we think Amazon intends to do with their tablet.

Google needs as many Android devices on the market as possible. And yes they aren’t faring to poorly currently but if they subsidized the cost of the handset with their own longer term services revenue, which Google could do, I believe the market would accelerate even faster. Making the point again, Google cares about the services revenue not the hardware revenue. It behooves them to seed as much of the market with Android devices as possible.

Imagine if you could get one of the latest Android smart phones fully featured for less than $99. The price barrier to high end smart phones would be gone and Google would have even more demand for Android.

The second major reason is patents.

Google Needs Patents
Patent lawsuit frenzy is sweeping the technology industry. The media, analysts, pundits and more have now made it glaringly clear that Google is on the weaker end of the spectrum when it comes to patents.

It is for this reason they attempted to purchase the Nortel patents. Based on recent actions it can be concluded that Google knows they need to secure a more robust patent portfolio. More specifically they need a patent portfolio around mobile devices to help protect Android.

Motorola has an incredibly robust patent portfolio. In fact they have nearly three times as many patents as Nortel. Some have alluded that Motorola’s patent portfolio is possibly the strongest in the mobile field. It could be debated but its possible that Motorola has the best patent defense against Apple’s in this field.

One interesting point from Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum who wrote in a research note last month:

“It is interesting to note that Motorola asserted 18 patents against Apple, and sued Apple first, whereas Apple has asserted just six patents against Motorola.”

Scott Moritz from the street remarks:

“Not only does Motorola have far more patents than its nearest competitors, it appears to have more of the key patents that may help the Android camp in a battle against Apple.”

The Big Picture
Although this is interesting to think about I doubt it will happen. A result of Google buying Motorola would be that their other partners like HTC, Samsung, LG and more would become competitors. I doubt Google’s partners would appreciate that and could potentially dump Android in the process. Also as far as I know Motorola Mobility is not for sale.

This patent issue however is a real one and one that if not dealt with tactfully by Google and the Android partners could prove fatal.

What’s more likely to happen, which The Street article points out, is that those in the Android camp band more closely together and leverage each others patent portfolios to protect Android.

Motorola however needs to continue to post solid financial results as they did for the most part last quarter. As I stated earlier making money on hardware alone is going to prove very difficult but Moto can and should continue to invest in innovations that differentiate their hardware allowing them a chance to profit from hardware. It would be wise of them to get more into the services game but not much is being shown there yet.

Why Google Hates Patents

In a rather testy blog yesterday, Google’s Chief Legal Council David Drummond lamented the fact that Android is under attack from competitors who are using a patent war to thwart Androids growth.

Mr. Drummond calls these patents that attack Android “bogus” and suggests that Apple, Microsoft, Oracle and others are ganging up to keep Android from being competitive and impacting its growth.

He especially calls out Apple and Microsoft’s purchase of Nortel’s patents and suggests that while normally Apple and Microsoft are at “each others throats” he believes that something sinister is going on. But Mr. Drummond does not know Apple and Microsoft’s history. In 1997, Apple and Microsoft entered a major cross licensing deal that spans a great deal of technologies, especially user interface issues. And over the years, behind the scenes, they’ve expanded their cross licensing deals with an eye on making sure that they kept up with the changing technologies that were behind their original deal. Although the Nortel patents were a high profile case, many of these patents actually were very much in line with their quest to keep their original cross licensing deals up-to-date.

Ironically, Microsoft actually asked Google to bid with them and they refused.

I also found it interesting that Mr. Drummond was pleased that federal regulators are “ looking into” whether Microsoft and Apple acquired the Nortel patents for anti-competitive means.” Given what I stated above, Apple and Microsoft will just show them the history of their cross licensing deals and this point will be mute. By the way, if I were Google I would keep as far away from prodding federal regulators on any issue given the fact that they are also under major federal anti-trust scrutiny

Also if Google is so opposed to patents, then why did they shell out $100 million for patents from IBM? This seems contradictory to their view that patents are bogus. An interesting aside here is that none of these patents from IBM will help them ward off Apple. These IBM patents are mostly related to semiconductors and servers and Apple already has license to most of these from their original IBM/PPC partnership created during the mid 1990’s.

Now, I understand that Drummond’s is just doing his job. In fact, Google’s management has a fiduciary responsibility to defend Android just as Steve Jobs and team have a similar responsibility for defending their patents. However, I believe there is really more of an ideological issue in play and represents Google’s more Open Source approach to life that feels that all technology should be free for use by all. Versus Apple’s strong view that their IP is the result of serious investment and hard work and needs to be protected through the legal patent process to, as Steve Jobs has said, “keep people from stealing” their creative innovations.

I like what Daring Fireball’s John Gruber asks in his post on the subject:

“How is Google’s argument here different than simply demanding that Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, et al should simply sit back and let Google do whatever it wants with Android, regardless of the patents they hold?”

The other thing in play is that Google has always touted the fact that Android is free. But it is clear that if Oracle wins their suit against Google and Android’s use of Java , Oracle plans to charge each Android vendor $15.00 per license. And Microsoft has already gotten HTC to pony up at least $5.00 per HTC device that uses Android to cover Microsoft’s patents used in Android. In Apple’s case, if they win, they won’t even consider licensing that piece of the technology to anyone. So that part of Android that would be in violation of any of Apple’s patents would mean that Google and their licensee’s would have to find a work around and that could be costly to Google and every Android licensee.

And this takes a big bite out of Google’s argument that Android is free and would make any future licensee’s think hard about using Android if there are potentially sliding costs involved to cover any other patent claims that could pop up over time. No wonder they are bashing patents. They fear their impact on what has to be one of their big cash cows where Android is given out freely and they get the add revenues tied to it.

We have suggested to our clients that license Android from Google to begin factoring in at least $20.00 for a possible upcoming Android license fee in any future products. And we have warned them that if Oracle wins, they could try and collect that $15.00 for any Android device already shipped. This is obviously still a legal issue and we don’t know for sure how it will play out. But it would be foolish for any Android licensee not to be prepared for what they have to view as a worst case scenario if the legal battle goes in favor of Oracle and others challenging Androids use of their patents.

And don’t think that Apple, Oracle or Microsoft will back down on this issue. They know the stakes are high and will keep pressure on Google through the legal channels until it is resolved one way or another. It will be great theater watching these tech giants go after each other in the coming months.

Can Google TV be Saved?

As of yesterday Logitech has been offering their Revue Google TV set top box for $99. I was at Logitech’s media day where they launched the Revue and I remember the mumblings from the media and analysts when they announced the price of $250. It was as if everyone knew that Logitech clearly priced themselves out of the market. $250 is quite a lot to spend on a product that was truncated at launch.

I was also at Google IO where they first announced and demonstrated Google TV. I remember at the time thinking that this product had potential but that it also had a good deal of hurdles to overcome. The experience from the first Google TV reminded me of many experiences I had with early products in the digital media adapter segment. Many of the products worked to a degree but did not necessarily nail the overall experience.

In fact i’m yet to see a product in the connected TV / Smart TV sector that nails all that a connected TV should be. If I was to nail down what I feel the biggest hindrance to connected TV moving forward it’s Hollywood.

I worked and consulted with the entertainment industry very shortly but long enough to understand how hard it is to work with Hollywood. Ask anyone who has been serious about looking into connected TV solutions and you hear constantly that lack of content is the biggest missing piece.

We are yet to see an offering in the connected TV space that has the depth and breadth of content as our cable or satellite service provider. The main reason for this is because they pay Hollywood and the network studios a massive sum of money to have the rights to broadcast their content.

Generally speaking the Internet is not yet a fully functional substitute for a cable or satellite service provider. Some consumers depend less on things like real time news and sports and can therefore come closer to being able to replace their service providers. Others have no problem waiting days, weeks or month’s to watch their favorite TV shows after they have aired. In some cases you can have your programming needs met from the Internet. Those situations however are the minority not the majority.

For the technology industry to bring to market a full connected TV solution that can replace a TV programming service provider is going to require the help from Hollywood.

For more interesting reading on the subject check out Jared Newman’s article at Techland called “How Google TV Can be Saved.”

Android Is at A Critical Junction

I believe that the next six month’s will be the defining point in the future for Google’s Android platform. Whether this future is bright or gloomy will depend on the next six month’s.

It seems right now like Android is riding the big wave reaping in success left and right. The reality is however that there is truth to the Android success but there are also walls still standing in the way.

The report from Nielsen relased yesterday that I opined on shows the meteoric rise of Android in such a short time to garner 39% of US smart phone OS market share. This is truly remarkable success in such a short time. However the question that we have to investigate is how defendable Android is as a platform or is it vulberable at a fundamental level.

If we conclude that Google plays their cards right and builds the right “moats” around the Android castle then it is strong at a fundamental level. However if we conclude that their “moats” are not that strong or deep then it could be vulnerable at a fundamental level. If the former is true Android remains a viable force in the market. If the later is true Android could encounter market volatility and market share could sweep back and forth.

Google’s Hardware Partners
At this stage of the game Google depends on hardware partners to develop devices that take advantage of their software and services. This is a strength as long as your hardware partners stay commited and loyal to you.

There are challenges however with hardware partners. First off there are other companies competing for their business. In the case of smart phones and tablets, Microsoft is Android’s competition. If HP ever wised up and licensed Web OS then there would be three very good options for hardware partners to build products upon.

Android is still the obvoius choice for OEM’s looking to bring a smart phone or tablet to market. Consumers understand the value proposition and there is a large enough app ecosystem in their market place to appease the market.

The question is six month’s or even one year from now will Android still be the obvious choice? I know many people will quickly say yes but I still have concerns. One major reason is the now over 50 law suits facing Android in some capacity. Right now Android is free for most OEM’s to take and implement. However if some of the key lawsuits go against Google we could see license fees from between 15-30 dollars depending on the OEM.

If this happens Android is no longer free. I wonder if that happens whether manufacturers would re-consider their commitement to Android.

App Store Economics
Now you may argue that no other licensable or free platform has the developer ecosystem that Android does. This of course is true but again continuing to develop and maintain that ecosystem will be key.

App developers want to get paid. And as BlueStacks CEO Rosen Sharma pointed out in his column on “How the App Store Money Flows;” there are still issues facing the economics of the Android market that many developers we talk to do not want to deal with. Believe it or not among the larger app developers and as well as some of the more savvy ones, there is heavy consideration still for Windows Phone and for WebOS.

Google must continue to develop a robust economic system that works for everyone who wants to write software for the Android platform. If developers see no economic growth or ROI of their allocation of precious resources to Android they will go elsewhere.

There is a lot I like about Android and I want to see it continue to develop and flourish. Google however will have to navigate and maneuver the waters of the next 6-12 month’s extremely strategically in order to preserve the moats around their castle. Android @Home for example has a great deal of potential I believe and could add real value to the Android platform and ecosystem if done right. Chrome OS is another strength that can be leveraged and assets can be shared across Chrome OS and Android.

As Tim pointed out this morning Amazon could come in and change the game. There are a lot of un-answered questions around Amazon’s tablet strategy from pricing model, to proprietary app development etc, but so long as Android is the underlying platform i’m assuming Google will benefit still in some way.

Android is still behind in tablets and this is another weakness that needs to be addressed. Tablet sales of Honeycomb devices have been less than lackluster. If the Android Honeycomb activation dashboard is any indicator there are between 1.2 and 1.5 million Honeycomb tablets in consumers hands. Motorola released that the XOOM sold 440,000 units; we are yet to see Samsung’s Galaxy Tab sales, Acer’s Iconia sales and Asus Transformer sales.

What we need is a truly break out Android tablet that can excite the mass market. From what I know is possible with hardware and from what I am seeing from the semiconductor companies I know it is possible, i’m just not sure when or who will deliver it to the market.

We will have to wait and see but I have to say I am extremely excited about the next 12 month’s.

How Amazon Could Own the Android Tablet Market

One of the first marketing classes I had in college discussed the concept of razors and razor blades. Sell the razors cheap and then sell men blades over and over. The profit would be in the blades, not the razors. In our tech world, we have our own version of this. It is called printers and printer cartridges. The printer companies sell their printers at a very low price, perhaps even under cost, knowing full well that they will sell users expensive ink cartridges over and over. The profit is never in the printer. It all comes from the ink cartridges and companies like HP and Epson make billions of dollars a year from their ink business.

With this in mind, if I were Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, I would really go to school on this concept and see if it could be applied to tablets. This model would never work for the PC vendors at this stage of the PC game. Although their PC’s are getting cheaper, they are not tied to an eco-system of software and services in which they could derive additional revenue tied to the PC and earn recurring revenue this way.

But I believe that the tablet is the first PC like device where this could be possible. So, Jeff, if you are listening, here is my suggestion to you. Sell your tablet at a price that is really cheap. Perhaps you sell it for 20-25% below cost. I know this sounds crazy and radical, but you actually have the recurring revenue ecosystem to potentially pull this off. It would take some serious guts to do this but if any one could do it, Amazon could.

In this model, think of the tablet as the razor. And in Amazon’s specific case, their Android Store, UnBox movie service and music service would be part of the “blades” they sell to users over and over again. And add to that the profit they could get through their Kindle bookstore as well as items you might buy from the Amazon store. And then add any Amazon cloud service revenue tied to the device that could also be part of an amortized profit pool over perhaps a two-year accounting period.

With info I have on components from my contacts in Taiwan, I was able to do some back of the envelope calculations to see how this could work. Bill of material costs along with manufacturing costs, shipping and tariffs most likely would put the device cost around $300 depending on its specs. For sake of argument, let’s use this as the baseline. But let’s say Amazon discounts this by $51,00 and sells it for $249.

Now, they do some research and determine that over a two year period, a person who has that tablet would buy or rent 15 movies, stream or download 50 songs, could buy 18 books and might pays $5.00 a month for cloud storage from Amazon. And, they purchase let’s say five items through the tablet’s Amazon store that can be counted against a 2 year amortized profit curve. And lets throw in some advertising in this mix as well. Although the prices of the books, video, music, etc would vary, by my guestimates, they would make back the lost “cost” of that $51.00 within six months and realize a profit of anywhere from 20-35% on the tablet over the last 18 months of the devices accounting period.

Amazon already has the trust of over 200 million users as well as their credit cards. And their “one click” buying model would make it quite easy for an Amazon tablet user to buy often through both the Android store and the Amazon store in general. Of course there are a lot of variables in this model, but you get the idea. The tablet is the razor and all of these apps and services are the blades.

Now imagine how this could affect the other Android vendors making tablets. Amazon would provide a product that if sold under cost with the goal of making up the rest of the cost and profit from apps, services and even advertising, it could give all of the other Android vendors a serious run for their money. And, given their deep eco system, other Android vendors would find it very difficult to compete with them. This could make Amazon, measured by units shipped, the king of Android tablets very quickly. In fact, I would go as far as say that they could “own” the Android tablet market.

For Apple, this would be a competitive threat but they have a pretty big lead and their own rich echo system of apps and services that could continue to keep them a market leader in tablets. And given their history of riding down prices of the iPod once it gets to scale, you can imagine that Apple will also be more aggressive with the iPads pricing over time and, as they are today, use their apps, services and the upcoming iCloud to deliver high margins for a long time.

But as radical as this idea might sound, it could make a lot of sense for Amazon to go to market with their tablet with this business model. As I stated earlier, it would take guts, but the impact on the market for tablets could be significant if they did this right and the consumers bought into their version of the old razor/razor blade school of marketing.

Social Media Wars – How Wide Do We Open the Kimono? Google+, Facebook, Etc.


 

By now, you may have heard the name Michael Lee Johnson.  He’s a young web developer who recently tried to promote his presence on Google+ by taking out a Facebook Ad.  What’s wrong with that?  According to Facebook’s terms of service, only everything.  And while I don’t agree with Facebook, simply because of my personal and professional stand on Friction vs. Fiction, they are, of course, simply protecting their market share.

It is very easy to see why they don’t want to do battle with megalith Google over anything more than ad sales. One has to wonder, however, where the users come into play.  Although diligently trying to evolve every single day, there’s absolutely NO guarantee that Facebook will not become the MySpace of tomorrow.  (Meaning that they become a great neighborhood that nobody lives in or even visits any more – sort of the Three-Mile Island of Social Networks.)

This isn’t the only example of what I might call “random” censorship either.  Meetup.com is notorious for ripping down local Meetup Groups that don’t fit their user terms (which change at will if you’re of a certain political slant).  The bottom line is that social networks are NOT democracies.  They are autocracies, and your participation is permitted and censored, at will, by the owner of the club.  Simply building walls and creating friction will not protect them.

So where does this leave Google+ ???  Growing. By leaps and bounds in my estimation.  Why?  Because it addresses all of the issues Facebook created – over exposure, brand and personal comingling, general insanity and finally, the issue of demographic. (And right now, it’s a hotbed for techies.)

As I addressed in my recent Social Media eBook, the problem with ANY network is that you can only reach THAT network’s users.  So while you can break demographics out further, you can only operate within the umbrella of users actually ON Facebook, for example.  Who are THEY?  Mostly, on Facebook at least, they’re people with free time.  Yes, I have a ton of “friends” on my Facebook Page, and I value them!  But I think Google+ and it’s Circles concept will provide a segregation which will eliminate having multiple Pages, Profiles, Groups, etc., etc. that ALL have to be updated.

Another service worth watching which addresses this, on the opposite side of the spectrum (the personal side), is Proust.com.  Proust is a social network designed to connect MORE intimately than Facebook (as if that were possible), by connecting close family members and allowing them to commemorate events and share life stories.  With the boom in genealogy that’s been created by the digital revolution, this is an idea that just might take off.

Final thoughts:  We have seen some extreme reverberations to the social media age (which is a subset in itself of the digital age).  Facebook overtaking MySpace (almost to annihilation) is only one example. There will be a backlash to the autocracy though, you can guarantee it.  Because the internet may be a place of freedom – but social networks are NOT.  A good example of this backlash is hacker group Anonymous. Even THEY are starting a social network (called “the Revolution”).  Their platform?  No censorship.  This might seem to lean toward the shadow side of things we might all like to avoid … but in reality, is it the Michael Lee Johnson’s of the world and a simple Google+ banner ad that we protect?  A question well worth consideration, at least.

Did Android Tablet’s Gain on The iPad or Did The Market Grow?

Yesterday Strategy Analytics released some numbers showing the latest in the overall tablet shipments which included iPad and Android tablets. In that report Strategy Analytics reported”

  1. Apple sold 9.3 million iPads in the second quarter of this year, giving it a commanding 61% share of the market
  2. Android captured [a] 30% share of global tablet shipments in Q2 2011
  3. Motorola, Samsung, Acer and Asus – shipped 4.6 million tablets running on the Android operating system in the three months to the end of June.
  4. Microsoft managed to capture a 4.6% of the tablet market
  5. PlayBook tablet, shipping half a million units in Q2 to give it a 3.3% share.


Now there are several things we need to bear in mind when we look at these numbers. First is that these numbers are only for Q3 2011. So Strategy Analytics is saying that during the third quarter Android tablets sold 30% of the total tablet sales just in this quarter. Strategy Analytics is not saying that Android tablets have 30% of the total tablet market share to date.

Second Apple’s tablet sales are sell through (actual sales to consumers), meaning those are actual numbers of consumers walking around with iPads in their hands. The Android tablet sales are shipped in to retail sales which is not necessarily indicative of how many consumer actually purchased them, only how many retailers purchased into the sales channel.

Now to look at the actual current market share numbers of tablets. According to sales figures to date Apple sold just over 29 million iPads. Sifting through as much public data I could find i’ve come up with total Android sales to date of just over 9 million, again sell into channel not sold through to consumers. If that is correct then Android tablet market share of total sales into channel to date is just over 25%.

I am keeping a close eye on these numbers and the next two quarters will be very telling. Since the most accurate tablet forecasts for 2011 are in the 40-55 million range, the next two quarters look like they could be huge. I believe Apple will easily sell in the double digit million range of iPads in each of the next two quarters. The true sell through numbers of Android will be key and i’ll update my market share figures when we get them.

We must also remember that tablets are a growth category, this year they will have grown nearly 200%. Meaning that the overall size of the tablet pie is growing. In my opinion discussing market share is great but I’m not sure its entirely helpful until a market has reached its peak.

Week In Review: Tech.pinions on the Key News of the Week

This week news came out revealing a clearer picture of how Microsoft is profiting from Android. Many large handset manufacturers are not having to pay Microsoft technology licenses due to patents owned by Microsoft Android infringes upon. This is important because it is only the beginning of the types of fees makes of Android devices could pay to not only Microsoft but also potentially Oracle. We are watching this closely because if the technology license cost surrounding Android becomes to high, it will likely impact the decision to go with Android on new devices.

Why Microsoft’s Android Ransom Matters

Facebook also announced this week that they have added video chatting as a communication option within the Facebook platform. They announcement also detailed that Skype (now owned by Microsoft) was the underlying technology making video chat within Facebook possible. It will be interesting to see where Facebook takes this and if and how they deploy it to mobile devices, thus enabling video chatting on mobile devices through Facebook. On that point, given that Microsoft and Facebook are so close, I would not be surprised if we see this technology first available on Windows Phone.

Should the Facebook-Microsoft Alliance Worry Google?

Apple also announced this week that their app store has crossed the 15 billion download mark. They also announced that in total they have paid out $2.5 billion dollars to developers who have distributed apps through Apple iTunes App Store. The significance of the volume of apps downloaded and the monetary benefits to developers, demonstrate Apple’s lead in both categories.

Apple’s App Store Tops 15 Billion Downloads: Eat Your Heart Out Google!

Netflix also made a significant announcement this week. They announced they are bringing instant streaming to Latin America and that their plans for later this year to add 43 countries in Central and South America, and the Caribbean to its list of supported locales is still on track. Netflix’s global streaming strategy is the key to them becoming the largest global streaming video service.

Netflix bringing instant streaming to Latin America, global domination plan on track

Should the Facebook-Microsoft Alliance Worry Google?

The Facebook announcement of Skype integration was also an announcement in the next stage of the relationship between Microsoft and Facebook.

Austin Carr wrote an interesting article this morning over at Fast Company titled: “Why The Facebook-Microsoft Alliance Should Worry Google.” The article is worth reading and I agree with several conclusions.

What I think many people overlook or perhaps don’t realize is that Facebook and Google really are competitors. Google wants to monopolize consumers Internet time in their services walled garden and Facebook wants to do the same.

Both of them entered their strategies differently with Google focusing on search and Facebook focusing on social relationships.

There is a heated debate, which we will cover in more detail here at Tech.pinions in the coming month’s, over the closed vs. the open web. I’ve spoken publicly about this at several industry summits and I will share more thoughts in an upcoming column.

There was one quote in particular in Carr’s article from Zuckerberg I wanted to point out.

“We have a really good relationship with Microsoft,” Zuckerberg said. “Now that you [Skype] are owned by Microsoft, that gives us the sense of stability that it’s going to be with a company we can trust–that we know we have a longstanding relationship with.”

Mark Zuckerberg used an interesting word toward the end of that quote “a company we can TRUST.” I’ve commented frequently on the industry mumblings we hear about a lack of trust in Google and it was interesting that Zuckerberg hinted that Facebook trusts Microsoft more than Google.

What’s more concerning -if true- are the comments from Eric Schmidt who seems to be dismissing Facebook as a viable Google competitor. Any time a technology gets engrained into our social fabric, as Facebook and Google have, the more lasting power they have. It is unwise for anyone executives or leaders at Google to underestimate the many business models still to be implemented by Facebook.

Facebook’s alliance with Microsoft is a strong one and one that we will be watching very closely as an analyst firm, especially given its strategic nature.

Why Tablets Won’t Cannibalize Laptop Sales – Yet at Least

If any of you have gone out to buy a laptop computer lately, you may have asked yourself “do I need a laptop or could I get by with a tablet?” We know from our research that this question is top of mind with a lot of consumers these days as tablets have really clouded their thinking when it comes to new laptop purchases.

Last summer, when the PC vendors were planning their spring collection of laptops, consumer tablets were still in their infancy. Apple’s iPad had some serious interest from consumers but at that time, it had only been on the market for a few months and the vendors did not see it as a threat to their laptop business. But by the holiday season they realized that Apple not only had a hit on their hands but also were pushing more and more non-PC vendors to jump on the tablet bandwagon. They also saw that Apple’s iPad and Google’s Android tablets were starting to get serious attention from potential laptop buyers.

But the problem for the PC vendors is that the projection of cannibalization of laptops by tablets is also all over the map. Some financial analysts that I talk to who cover the PC vendors think that tablets could cannibalize as much as 50% of the laptop business for traditional PC vendors by 2014. In my talks with PC vendors, they currently fear that tablets could impact their total laptop sales by more then 10-12% over the next three years.

However, a new report from Bernstein Research Analyst Toni Sacconaghi is challenging this assumption. John Paczkowski over at the AllThingsD blog shared the reports findings and added some thoughts in his article. Sacconaghi believes that tablets are not cannibalizing notebooks but are instead converging with them. He postulates that a product like Apple’s MacBook Air, with its thin and light design, is more synergistic to Apple’s iPad. And that it represents a broader convergence of the tablet and notebook designs.

He is on to something here. If you look at the key trends in processor designs that focus on very low voltage yet high performance, you see that PC vendors now have the technology to create very thin and light laptops that in some ways work the same way. With a tablet, all you need is a Bluetooth keyboard and it in essence is a notebook. What’s more, if you take a very thin and light laptop and put a touch screen on it that can be folded back or slid down, you have a tablet.

Mr. Saccononaghi also says “ironically, availability of such notebook devices might undermine tablets sales rather then vice versa.” That is a possibility. But the blurring may really come through what we call Hybrids or sliders. When I was in Taipei a few weeks ago I saw a couple of products called sliders. The one officially launched was the Asus slider but I also saw one behind the scenes that will be ready for the holidays that was even cooler then the one from Asus. Both work like a laptop when the screen is slid up and then works like a tablet when the screen is slid down. A tablet and laptop all-in-one!

We see this hybrid slider as the device that actually does blur the two devices into one and could end up driving a portion of the market to buy products like these instead of a laptop or a tablet individually. However these designs still have small 10.1 inch screens and laptop users – who are used to larger screens to work with – may be intrigued by this design but still opt for a laptop and a tablet if they feel the need both.

What’s interesting is that if you consider a tablet a portable computer and lump them into total portable computer sales, Apple would be the #1 portable computer maker in the market today with HP being a distant second.

In the end I believe it will come down to personal choices. If a person uses their computers more for productivity, then a laptop is still needed. But if they mostly use computers for content consumption, then a tablet is more ideal for them.

Either way, consumers will end up with a lot of compelling choices and form factors for ultra light computing and will buy the ones that make sense for them. And for the PC industry, the amount of portable computers shipped starting in 2013 will increase by at least 50%. The big question when we get to 2015 though will be who the real Apple challengers will be and how much market share Apple will still own in both the ultra light laptop and tablets markets by the middle of the decade.

HTC Flyer: To Stylus or Not to Stylus

I want to focus the thoughts of this article purely on the HTC’s implementation of a stylus on their Flyer 7″ tablet. When Steve Jobs said “if you see a stylus, they blew it,” I believe he meant that if a tablet or computer required a tablet for navigation and input it has failed. To this I would entirely agree.

I believe the stylus alone should be viewed as an accessory, not something the tablet experience depends on. I believe HTC understands this and all though the implementation isn’t perfect it is still by far the best stylus implementation to date.
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The Android Opportunity – Core Apps

Google’s Android operating system has proven itself a growing force to be reckoned with as adoption rates among manufactures and consumers continue growing at considerable rates. I feel that Android 2.1 has finally reached a point where it is ready for the mass market. I’ve also had the opportunity to use a Nexus One with the next release 2.2, AKA Froyo, for the past two weeks and have found it even more ready for the mass market and perhaps even the enterprise.

Android continues to advance in virtually all areas and compared to Apple’s iPhone OS, it represents the only really viable alternative, for now. As I pointed out in my last article The Fate of Windows 7, Microsoft is way behind this curve, and even if they were caught up at a pure OS level, they are still at least two years behind on the the app ecosystem. Conversely, Android is well behind Apple with the core apps.
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