Affordable UltraBooks are Coming But They aren’t UltraBooks

There are looming PC wars coming and it isn’t between Macs and Windows based notebooks. If you follow this industry you know that Intel is seeking to rejuvenate the notebook market. They are doing this by putting quite a bit of marketing weight behind the term UltraBook. To spur development in this category, Intel is putting some very specific hardware specifications around the term that OEMs like Dell, HP, Acer, etc., must conform to if they want their notebook to be called an UltraBook and take advantage of Intel’s marketing dollars for UltraBooks. Obviously every OEM is making UltraBooks.

The challenge as I see it for UltraBooks is that many of the first ones at launch and perhaps those that follow will be priced more in the premium price range rather than value. Many of the early UltraBooks we will see will be $699 and above although a few may get lower and many will skew higher as well. What our consumer data from our own research and consumer interviews is telling us is that Apple has about a $250 grace price point. Consumers know Apple’s Macbook Pro and MacBook Air lines are not the cheapest products on the market. For MacBook intenders, any comparable product must be at least $250 less than a comparable MacBook product to fully sway a consumer when price comes into play. But as I have pointed out before price is becoming less and less of an issue in mature markets.

Although we expect UltraBooks to continue to drop in price there is a sub-category of notebooks emerging which may be even more interesting.

If It Looks Like an UltraBook…

Intel wants to own the UltraBook category. They are investing a lot of money around the term. However, there is a strict set of requirements notebook OEMs must abide by if they want to use the term. If there is one thing I have learned in my 12 years of being an industry analyst it is that OEMs don’t generally like being told what they can and can’t do with their hardware designs. Every OEM wants to take advantage of the thin and light designs driving UltraBooks but they may want to vary the CPU capabilities, and what if they want to use an non-Intel chip for a design that looks exactly like an UltraBook? The answer is they can’t call it an UltraBook.

Earlier in the week AMD launched a very impressive 2nd-Generation A-Series APU, codenamed “Trinity.” Many OEMs have strong relationships with AMD and will most likely use these chips in their lineup of notebooks. So how do OEMs cover their bases by making non-Intel UltraBooks? Well, HP recently launched a new term called SleekBooks. We call this category Ultrathins and we expect many Ultrathins to enter the market well below the price of UltraBooks. And that is what makes this so interesting.

While Intel is going out and spending millions of dollars marketing the UltraBook term, it will indirectly benefit a range of competing platforms. Ultrathins will look nearly identical to UltraBooks with the only minor configurations or specifications, that many consumers may not even notice. The bottom line is that consumers will walk into retail and see UltraBooks, SleekBooks, and perhaps more terms on the way, and with all of these options consumers may very well go with price and walk with with something other than an UltraBook. Perhaps even not knowing they didn’t purchase an UltraBook.

Now, on the surface it may seem as though Intel may not like this scenario. But realistically Intel simply wanted to rejuvenate the notebook category. I believe their marketing of UltraBooks is going to do just that. Even though it may very well help their competitors chipsets and even to a degree help Apple.

I have a feeling there is a large chunk of consumers who are due for a notebook upgrade. The iPad has, for some, served as a sufficient supplement to their existing notebook making it easier to delay the purchase of a new notebook. Whether it is UltraBooks or these new thin and lights that will look and smell like UltraBooks but be priced quite a bit lower, we expect at least a short term positive jump the overall notebook category over the next few years.

Mac Momentum

This is one of the more interesting things to watch. Mac sales are growing at incredible rates. It seems each quarter Apple is selling more Macs than ever before. I was recently in an Apple store with a newly renovated training center. When I walked into the store I assumed the training tables would be filled with people learning how to use their iPads. Instead every table and every consumer at that table was learning how to use the new Mac they just purchased.

If Ultrathins that are very thin, light, and powerful hit the market below the $599 price like we think may happen, it could provide a serious jump start to the notebook category. And at $599 or lower the prices of quality notebooks will be significantly less than an entry level MacBook Air, which may be a key in slowing down Apple’s momentum with Macs.

The Notebook form factor is facing important times as consumers are faced with new questions about computing and their own computing preferences due to the iPad. Consumers are asking new questions about their own computing needs and looking more intently for specific solutions–especially those shopping for new notebooks.

This is exciting and challenging for many in the notebook ecosystem.