All Eyes on Data Center Innovation

I know the data center is not the sexiest of topics. But what I’m finding most interesting about the state the industry is in at the moment, which specifically is a lull of innovation in consumer hardware, is the rapid pace of innovation happening in the data center.

One of the tricks of being an analyst is to cast a wide net and look for patterns. As many of our readers know, some of the patterns I like to focus on are ones I see happening in semiconductors. My saying goes “it is much easier to predict the future when you understand the semiconductor industry roadmap.” Right now, nearly every semiconductor company has shifted resources and focus to the data center.

I appreciated this analysis by my friend and fellow industry analyst Kevin Krewell, who dug into NVIDIA’s announcements from their recent event and outlined how NVIDIA is now a data center company. While this does not mean NVIDIA is not going to keep competing in consumer graphics, the reality is the upside for NVIDIA, as well as a significant focus of their research and development dollars, is going toward technology designed for the data center. What’s more, is to look at NVIDIA’s stock price as they transitioned from consumer graphics to a data center standard.

NVIDIA reached all-time highs, and will likely get back there once investors mentally grasp what is happening in crypto, and with so much innovation still ahead in the data center, you can bet there is still upside growth.

Another storyline is AMD. In fact, perhaps the single biggest point to showcase how bullish investors and the broader market are on data center technologies is to look at AMD’s stock. In case you have never seen it’s a long-term arc, here it is.

For most of its life, AMD traded below $5 a share. But as the upside in cloud technology and the huge need for more data center technology expanded, AMD benefitted. Even though they still have a small share of the data center market and only a small double-digit share of the PC market, AMD’s PE ratio roughly six times Intel’s. Cloud platform providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google like having supplier diversity and are even segregating product offerings, or instances, based on specific beneficial technologies provided by these silicon companies. The data center TAM is a big one from a dollar standpoint looking to grow beyond 300 billion dollars sooner than most forecasts. AMD still likely has some data center specific announcements to come this year, but yesterday was Intel’s time in the spotlight.

Competing with Intel’s Monolithic Integration
At Intel’s analyst day last December, I recall then interim CEO, now permanent CEO, Bob Swan use state Intel’s doubling down on monolithic integration as a core company strategy to succeed. Yesterday’s data center product lunch of the Cascade Lake architecture was monolithic integration on full display. Intel showcased an architecture that includes CPU, Accelerators/FPGA, Memory, Ethernet/networking silicon and the software stack to tie it all together. The only thing missing was a GPU, and we all know that is coming.

Adding the GPU will be filling the most significant gap for Intel once they do it. Some are skeptical, but if any team can do it, the team they have built is the one. However, it was interesting during Intel’s keynote that 50% of machine learning inferencing will take place at the edge. If this holds, then it is good for Intel and forecasts for inference alone is a 10 billion dollar TAM in 2021. Intel’s integrating of the hardware and software stack to take on the inference market will alleviate concerns of their lack of GPU for now.

When it comes to Intel’s integration, monolithic at that, which is the bread and butter of the company, I do wonder what pressure that will put on a competition to follow a similar path. NVIDIA buying Mellanox is perhaps a step in the direction as NVIDIA adds a networking dimension to their portfolio. NVIDIA also has architectural benefits to their GPU solution and software stack which can absorb more tasks from the CPU should the market want that. I strongly doubt NVIDIA will make a move to CPUs, but nothing is impossible.

At a high level, the fascinating part of how the data center is evolving is true whether heterogeneous solutions are what cloud platforms want, or if we can imagine Amazon, Google, and Microsoft simply offering products and instances based solely on Intel, NVIDIA, and AMD solutions separately.

Going back to the pattern that I think is most interesting here, and that is the clarity that almost all the major investment and innovation from silicon companies is moving to the data center assures us that much of the world is now finally moving to cloud first. Even roping Apple into this conversations, their major push with services is a cloud-first strategy and has implications on how the company thinks about their own vertical strategy when it comes to their data center and their services.

We have long talked about what the world would look like when most the computing is down in the cloud, and it seems we are now able to see a timeframe where that future becomes a reality.

Published by

Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

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