Analyzing Microsoft’s and Apple’s Approach to Tablets

With Windows 10 on the horizon and Apple’s latest iOS 9 which will bring the iPad into much closer competition with PCs, it is worth looking at how the two platform companies are approaching tablets. As outlined in this report, my thesis for tablets has always been it is the true mass market computer. The traditional PC in its desktop and notebook form factor drove the initial wave of computing. I maintain tablets and smartphones will drive the next wave.

In terms of hard numbers, a clamshell desktop or notebook is used by 1.1-1.2 billion people actively but quite a bit less daily. Microsoft claims Office has around 1 billion active users and has frequently stated Windows is used by 1.5 billion people. This is a generous number in my opinion but, even if we accept it as true, there are a large number of people on the planet not using a fully capable PC.

I’d also argue consumers are tending to use their PCs less in favor of devices like smartphones and the iPad. We have data suggesting a direct correlation to a decline in overall PC usage by the mainstream consumer market with a rise in iPad sales globally. I make a distinction here by saying iPad, not tablets because, while Android tablets ship in higher volume, they do so in markets where PC penetration is low. We see a direct correlation in PC usage decline in markets where iPad shipments are higher than Android such as in the US and parts of Europe.

What this signals to me about the market is consumers still want and need their PC for certain tasks, but are ONLY using their PC for those specific tasks they deem it necessary. For everything else, they are shifting usage to smartphones and tablets.

Which brings us to the difference in approach between Microsoft and Apple with tablets. Federico Viticci writing for MacStories makes a key point:

iOS 9 is going to be a watershed moment for iPad users. For many, the iPad is about to graduate from utility to computer. Apple is envisioning a future where users can do more with iPad apps without the inherent complexities of OS X – and they’re largely relying on developers to help build this future.

Federico is articulating in the same vein I did in Tuesday’s analysis of WWDC, that the iPad is evolving to be more PC-like than smartphone-like. The iPad’s initial drive of adoption was based on it being similar to the iPhone in simplicity. Desktop operating systems like OS X and Windows are more sophisticated, have a steeper learning curve, and are necessary for power users. I’ve long argued PCs and operating systems like OS X and Windows vastly over-serve the needs of the mass market consumer. I hold this conviction still.

Federico rightly points out that, with iOS 9 for the iPad, powerful and sophisticated computing tasks are coming but not bringing the complexities associated with a desktop operating system. This is the polar opposite of what Microsoft is doing — bringing a desktop operating system, and the ecosystem that accompanies it, to tablets. Where Apple is bringing a mobile operating system and the ecosystem to the iPad. It is the simplicity of a mobile OS vs. the complexity of a desktop OS converging on the tablet form factor.

Maintaining the depth of a desktop OS is necessary to satisfy the market that still needs everything a power user needs, including being optimized for desktop or notebook form factors and mouse/keyboard efficient inputs. However, the number of people who need and can get the most out of such a product is much smaller than the masses whose needs are different. It is this area I still believe tablets have the most potential. I fear Microsoft’s approach to tablets leaves their Windows 10 tablet offerings appealing to the hardcore PC crowd, not the mass market. iPad’s emphasis on “sophisticated simplicity”, I believe, can appeal to a wider base of potential consumers.

All of this matters because an event is going to happen which will tell us how consumers vote with their dollars. The active base of PCs 5 years or older is in the range of 500-600 million with more than half being the consumer PC installed base. One has to believe at some point these consumers will need a new PC. I tend to believe these consumers will lean more toward a tablet form factor which means it will come down to the Windows tablet PC offerings and the iPad in its current or perhaps even larger form.

My gut sense is Apple’s evolving the iPad to be more capable of traditional PC tasks is well positioned. The iPad as a computer appeals to those who are mobile literate but have a desire to do more. I’d love to see Microsoft crack the simplified computer for the masses, but my sense is the offerings they currently have are still targeting those who are PC literate.

Published by

Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

135 thoughts on “Analyzing Microsoft’s and Apple’s Approach to Tablets”

  1. Tim,

    Do you see anything in new iOS9 functionality/features that will be ‘killer’ in the move to your future tablets ‘for the rest of us’?

    For me, one is the simple upgrade to the iPad keyboard allowing 2 fingered cursor control. Subtly powerful. Of course, Siri getting smarter also.

    1. I do think the screen size will play a role in this. Assuming Apple does go larger I think the multi window stuff will be very nice. As I dig through the new features and uncover other things that I think will help it grow up to be a PC i’ll share thoughts.

  2. Ben, what about Chromebooks? Would it be competing with iPad for non-power users? Would not having a native app ecosystem hurt it?

    1. I don’t think so no. Chromebooks right now are not gaining any attraction with the mass consumer audience. I think they need more than in terms of software and capabilities than Chromebooks can do. Lure of iPad is it can do all those things a PC does and all the things they know and love with their mobile devices.

  3. I think part of the PC vs Tablet divide is due to OS features, but also to hardware features.

    I’ve had a tablet with split-screen multitasking and PiP for years (2012 Samsung Galaxy Note 10), yet I barely use those features because they’re rather pointless on a 10″ screen, I’d rather use my phablet on the side and add screen real estate instead of portionning 10 measly inches between apps.
    Part of the PC experience is a large screen or 2 or 3 at eye level, good loud sound, a roomy keyboard and mouse, lots of storage…
    I’m amazed time and time again that Apple and Google are not more aggressive about moving their mobile ecosystems to the laptop and desktop form factors. I can get Apple wanting people to complement their Apple Pads with more expensive Macs (though I’m not sure they wouldn’t increase overall sales and lock-in by having product, many iPads/iPhones are paired with Windows PCs). I can’t grok Google letting MS regroup on the desktop before mounting an umpteenth attack on Mobile.

    1. Are you saying that you want a clipboard you can share between devices (using Bluetooth presumably). I agree that that would be pretty nice.

        1. That’s good.

          I just looked up the AppStore myself and I was a bit surprised to see that there seem to be universal clipboard apps as well. I was expecting there to be some security issues (I copy passwords all the time). I suppose I’l have to check.

          I agree that it could be a much better solution than split-screen multitasking, but I’m still very skeptical that this is the holy grail that will bring back iPad sales growth.

          1. Yes, anything in the clipboard should be considered insecure unless you’ve tripled-checked no app has access to it (and a lot do). Most password managers use it, so… I’m back to olivier-generated passwords, not quite random but the sensitive ones should be immune to dictionary attacks ^^

  4. Great piece Ben – I agree completely. Right after the keynote ended I thought iPad multitasking was the most important feature announced – and several days later I still think the same.

    The current iPad screen, and the forthcoming larger one, are essentially the same size as most laptops these days and the split screen & video functions added have really seem the iPad graduate to higher education and the workforce.

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