Apple Watch, Fitbit, and Everyone Else

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By my estimates, Fitbit and Apple Watch combined for nearly 50% of all wearable shipments in the June quarter of 2017. The market is a duopoly and major questions about Fitbit remain. Fitbit’s ASP was just over $100 for the quarter while the Apple Watch was just over $300 in our model. However, Fitbit and Apple Watch are on two very different trajectories.