Macs Were Already Being Assembled in the USA

News about Apple looking to have more of their Mac line of products assembled in the USA made for interesting headlines today. What is interesting is that some amount of Macs were already being assembled here in the USA. iFixit, with its tear down of the latest iMac, noted this picture and wording on the back.

Credit: iFixit

The news that grabbed headlines today was that Apple intended to invest in more assembly of USA assembled products in their Mac line. This means a larger ramp and scale up of US made assembly of those products starting in 2013. This is of course pertinent and a big deal that volume US manufacturing of Macs will ramp in 2013. I find it interesting that Apple has already been assembling, in low volume, some products in the Mac line for some time. In fact you can find in forum threads going back to at least 2006, people mentioning that their Mac Pros had the Assembled in the USA wording. And obviously for the new iMac to have the wording iFixit found stating it was assembled in the USA, we are talking about some level of assembly of Macs which has been in place for some time. Perhaps everyone already knew this, but I hadn’t seen it get much attention. Of course, as Apple begins to ramp US based manufacturing, thing become very interesting.

I’ve heard the argument from some pundits that this initial investment and step to build more products in the USA is a PR stunt from Apple, to which I wholeheartedly disagree. Apple is one of few companies for whom it makes sense to diversify assembly and manufacturing for certain products. Note that this doesn’t apply to all product lines but I believe it certainly does for some. I have to believe that for Apple to have made this move it makes sound business sense from a long-term strategic standpoint, as well as from a capital expenditures standpoint.

Elements of glass (pabels), semiconductors, cables, and other raw materials for many electronics are actually made in the US. So it is not like everything that goes into electronics is made in China. Apple also has a streamlined process, with their Mac line in particular, due to the uni-body designs of much of their hardware.

There is also some speculation as to which Macs will be made in the US. My understanding is not that it is limited to one line but can and may very well include some degree of all Macs.

Tech manufacturing has never really been in the US. In the early days of the PC many things were assembled here but it very low volume. High-tech electronics manufacturing in high volume has never been in the USA. What Apple is doing is a huge step in the right direction to help foster and develop the necessary expertise to support some level of high-tech US manufacturing.

The key point is not that Apple is bringing high-tech manufacturing jobs back to the US. Many of those jobs never existed in the first place. This is a baby step move in the right direction to actually create new types of jobs. Ones that may extend to many other industries and segments as 3D printing and nano-technology help to create the hardware renaissance I believe we are on the forefront of.

I have been watching, and hoping that a move like this would happen for a while and I seriously hope it is a trend not isolated to one high-tech giant.

Microsoft’s Strongest Asset is XBOX Not Office

I’m sure if you surveyed many in the industry and asked them what Microsoft’s greatest asset to leverage going forward would be you would get a range of answers. I’m sure people would offer up Windows or Office as the most frequent responses to that question. From the looks of much of Microsoft’s marketing it seems as well that they feel their strength lies in Windows and Office. However, they are sitting on another asset that I believe may be the fundamental cornerstone of their success going forward. And that is the XBOX.

If you think about what drove the bulk of Microsoft’s success during the PCs golden age, most would agree it was Windows and Office. For the bulk of the PCs lifecycle it was productivity use cases that drove Microsoft assets into the corporate world and thus by default into the homes of many consumers. That world has changed and I don’t believe the same kind of strong sentiment exists with Windows or Office as it once did with the broader consumer market.

However the product that I do believe not only has more relevant mindshare with consumers than Windows and Office, but also has a largely positive sentiment is the XBOX. To date the XBOX has sold over 70 million units. Now, although that sounds much smaller than the 350-380 million traditional PCs we sell annually on a world wide basis, XBOXs cover more ground than PCs. PCs generally, have a higher penetration due to their tie to individual consumers. In an average consumer home there is generally more than one PC. But XBOXs are more communal and therefore generally only have one per household but chances are more than one person benefits from the XBOX regularly. But this device plays a very important role from an entertainment standpoint and one that I feel has driven higher consumer sentiment than many of the other Microsoft assets.

When it comes to all of Microsoft’s assets, I would argue that the XBOX is the one that is most commonly being woven into the core of many consumers media and entertainment experiences. XBOX is the new Office and I am not sure that Microsoft understands this at the level they need to.

Had Microsoft launched a XBOX tablet first and not a Surface tablet, my conviction is that they would have had much more success. Surface sales are not going well and our close supply chain sources indicate that its likely to not even sell 1M by the end of the year. Had their first go out the door been much more focused on leveraging XBOX assets and positioned more for gaming and entertainment, then I believe Microsoft would have had much more success.

Jim Dalrymple wrote an article today, that is worth reading, where he points out that Microsoft with Surface created a product that didn’t solve a problem. I agree at one leveld, but I’m sure many can make the case that Microsoft did solve a problem. My point is Microsoft solved the wrong problem with Surface. The problem Microsoft is looking to solve, one where productivity is the emphasis in both design and philosophy of a tablet, is not the one I believe most consumers are leading with when researching which product to buy. Thus with Surface, Microsoft has developed a product for the few rather than a product for the masses.

I fundamentally believe that pure tablet use cases carry more weight with the mass consumer market than notebook use cases. Things like an easy to hold and use form factor, a quality visual experience, heavy emphasis on best of breed media consumption and entertainment, simplicity and ease of use. These are the things the mass market values at the highest level. In my opinion if Microsoft was focusing on these use cases with Surface, they would have made a different product and I believe tied it more to their strongest asset for the mass consumer market–the XBOX.

The 5 Technologies that Changed My Life

I thought it would be interesting to kick off a series where each of our columnists would share the top 5 technologies that changed and profoundly impacted our lives, along with the reasons why. Technology has shaped and is shaping many different generations in different ways and will continue to do so for long periods of time. I know I always enjoy listening to others tell stories about the products that truly impacted them for the better and some of the reasons why. So here are the ones that shaped my life up to this point.

Nintendo Entertainment System (NES)
That’s right the very first EPIC NES. It was 1985 when the NES came into my house. I was instantly the coolest kid on the entire block. My father being one of the first analysts in the computer industry developed a good relationship with Nintendo so he got to bring one of the first units home.

Many of you can relate to your first gaming experience, whether it be with the Commodore, Atari, NES or even the Playstation or XBOX. It was mesmerizing, captivating and seriously addicting. I couldn’t get enough, the escape that video games presents or more immersive and emotional that books or movies could ever be, for me at least. It also most likely contributed to my ADD.

Now with the addition of things like Kinect and the Wii, families are getting together and playing immersive games together. For me it all started with the original NES.

IBM PS/2
DIR/W. Ah the memories of DOS. The PS/2 was the first computer I remember using at length. We had many others before it in our home but I simply don’t remember them as well. I learned to use DOS on the PS/2 which instantly made me the go to for tech support in computer lab in the 5th grade.

Computers and computing are a big part of many of our lives. I highlight this one because it was the one I spent the most time with at a young age and the one much of my computing foundation was grounded on.

Compaq iPaq 3630 W/ PCMCIA sleeve and Metricom Ricochet Wireless Card
I had a difficult time choosing between the iPaq and the first Palm Pilot. I was at the Palm Pilot launch event when Jeff Hawkins first publicly demonstrated the device. In fact my dad took me out of school to attend the event because he knew how significant it would be for the industry. I remember thinking at the time how groundbreaking this pocket computer was. The primary reason I chose the iPaq over the Palm Pilot was because of the Metricom wireless card adapter sleeve. Although the original Palm Pilot represented a vision for a true pocket computer, the iPaq with the Metricom Ricochet Wireless card brought me the Internet in my pocket for the fist time and that was what gave me my inflection point.

Now you may be wondering why I chose this device over a smartphone or cellphone of some kind. The reason was because this particularly product, tied to the Metricom broadband service, provided the basis for my smartphone experience. Because I was highly familiar and comfortable with a pocket computer experience, I didn’t have the same profound “aha” moments many did with their first smartphones because the iPaq had provided the fundamental experience of apps and the internet in your pocket.

My first HDTV – Mitsubishi 55” Rear Projection
Being an early adopter I bought my first HDTV the second I could possibly afford one which was in 2003. That was also the year my first daughter was born, so I positioned it as a birthday present for her, which obviously no one believed.

I remember the first time I saw an HD picture on this beast. I nearly cried. I stared at it for hours and watched the most random things simply because HD content was limited and I just wanted to watch HD shows. I remember telling my wife it was like looking out a window or like actually being at the football or baseball game. She didn’t think so but I did and that was all that mattered.

The iPad
I chose the iPad for a number of reasons. Mainly because in the 13+ years I have been working in the technology industry I always dreamed of a product like this (a no compromise tablet) and this was the first to deliver. I used nearly every pen computing tablet that came to market in a variety of shapes and sizes prior to the iPad. Yes, there are a number of good tablets on the market and they will all continue to get better but for me the iPad brought touch computing to the mass market and is still the cream of the crop in my opinion.

Arguably touch computing started with the iPhone but a small pocketable screen is only capable of some elements of touch computing where the iPad represents a much more holistic touch computing platform and has cast a vision of where touch computing will go with future innovations.

So those are my 5 defining experiences with technology. More Tech.pinions columnists will share theirs and why and as always we would love to hear from our fantastic community with your comments.

The Opinion Cast (podcast): Market Share, Windows 8, and Profits

In this Opinion Cast we discuss a number of important topics related to the industry. Although the year is wrapping up, there is still a lot to discuss and opine about. Here is the topical overview from this weeks Opinion Cast.

–The continuing mystery of Android market share vs. usage share.
–Microsoft’s Windows 8 woes
–Carriers and product differentiation

You can also subscribe to our opinion cast in iTunes here.

My Notebook and I are Growing Apart

I can’t help but have the feeling as of late that a close friend and I are growing more distant. These feelings are encapsulated with gratitude, sorrow, and also an understanding that it is for the better. That close friend is my notebook. Up until the last year or so my notebook as been my trusted partner in this industry and the computing device I depended on more than any other.

My relationship with my notebook peaked in 2011 with the 13” Macbook Air refresh which I dubbed at the time the perfect notebook for me. However, over the past few years, we have been growing apart and the iPad is the culprit.

I have written extensively about the profound industry impact I believe tablets will have, however there is a quote from Steve Jobs when he first launched the iPad that I believe captures every bit of why my notebook and I are growing apart.

“The iPad is more intimate than a notebook, and more capable than a smartphone” – Steve Jobs

Nail.On.The.Head. Smartphones are personal, but tablets are intimate. In light of that profound quote and perspective, we may be better off thinking about tablets as intimate computers instead of personal computers—even though they are both.

In a column a few months ago, I advanced a similar theory to that of Steve Jobs where I connected this intimate relationship I have with my iPad by making the observation that things we hold we love. This is why I believe a handheld computing device like our phones and tablets will garner a deeper connection than the desktop or notebook ever could with consumers. Desktops and notebooks are designed to be used at arms length and roughly around 24-36 inches away from our bodies. Yet tablets and smartphones are specifically designed to be used 8-12 inches from our bodies. Tablets and smartphones–by nature–are more intimate and thus will yield fundamentally different emotional connections with those who use them.

This observation, of not only the intimate nature of these products but also the proximity in which we hold and use them to our bodies, is in my opinion, the root of why my notebook and I have grown apart. When you use a device like an iPad or iPad Mini and are used to holding it closer to your body, and your eyes in particular, you simply get used to consuming information on a screen much closer to your face and eyes.

This observation was cemented in my mind most recently when I and my family were traveling to New York for both fun and some business. During this trip we spent a lot of time out and about in the city and I took my iPad Mini with LTE modem everywhere we went. I spent quite a bit of time using that device to take photos, search for points of interest, browse the web, etc, and didn’t end up touching my notebook for three days. When I did finally get my notebook out and open it up, it felt distant, it felt like I was too far from the screen and I needed to hunch over and get close to it. Now this is not because I have bad eyes, I have perfect vision, it was simply because I was used to computing in this intimate fashion and using my iPad at a distance less than 12 inches from my eyes. Simply put, because the notebook screen is used at a farther distance, it seems smaller and seems harder to see after you have been using a screen much closer to your person. Use an iPad only for three days then go back to a notebook where the screen is 24-36 inches away and you will know exactly what I mean. The fact is the more I use the iPad the farther away my notebook feels every time I use it—and I mean that in a number of ways.

Now, it is not that my notebook is going away, however, because of this change in dimension of computing, I have found that my ideal use case for my notebook is when it is docked with my larger screen. The iPad and using it in such close proximity to my face makes it feel like its a larger screen than it actually is thus conditioning me to prefer this kind of feeling. I find myself more and more leaving my notebook stationary and connected to my bigger screen. That way when I need to use it, it doesn’t feel so far away or that the screen is harder to see. In this scenario a desktop would suffice but I am using my notebook as a desktop in this case.

Now I know this experience may not be the same for everyone since what I am sharing is my personal experience and preference. I do, however, think the intimate element of computing that tablets subconsciously garner with consumers may have a more profound impact on the market than we assumed before.

One last thing needs to be shared. My experience with the iPad Mini being used as my exclusive iPad over the past few weeks has drove my notebook and me further from each other and quicker than my iPad ever did. There is something about the pure ultra-portability and ultra-intimate experience with the iPad Mini that I will be the cause of many consumers re-evaluating their relationship with their notebook.

Why Competitors Should Fear the iPad Mini

We have been conducting tiers of research trying to gauge consumer sentiment around tablets and in particular of late, the iPad Mini. Part of my interest with this research is designed to get deeper insight into the 7″ form factor in terms of perceived value and core uses cases for consumers versus the larger tablet form factors.

Bear in mind, when we do research it is rooted in ethnography and observational methods not surveys. We interview consumers and strive to understand things from their perspective. I like to explain it by saying we strive let consumers perspectives help shape our own rather than the other way around. That’s how Creative Strategies has done it for over 30 years and its never let us down.

Another thing worth mentioning for those not familiar with our work is that we target consumers in our interviews on specific parts of the adoption curve. Most of our focus is on the mass market consumer and late adopters not the tech elite and early adopters.

Our research on this matter will get packaged in a more formal way in the future but I wanted to share a few highlights.

Shifting Mindset

One thing I found interesting was that nearly everyone we spoke to who expressed interest in the iPad Mini, simply assumed the next version would include a Retina display. More interestingly this did not seem to be a deterrent to their intended purchase this holiday season. When I dug into why there was no interest to wait, the overwhelming consensus was that over time their intention was not just to own one but to own many. Ideally one for every person in the house. So the logic goes, when the new one comes out the older gets handed down. This used to be the logic for notebooks.

Price was certainly a driving factor for the interest of the iPad Mini over the iPad. But to many the price premium did not seem to be a deterrent. One of my key takeaways is that the perception with the iPad and the iPad Mini, relative to tablets, is that even though you pay more, you get more. This in terms of hardware and software quality as well as ecosystem and perhaps more importantly the experience.

The vast majority we interviewed had not owned a tablet yet and were on all parts of the economic scale. Those in the lower income brackets were also intending to research a few other tablets in the 7″ form factor. The leading three were the Nexus 7, Kindle Fire HD and Nook HD. Even with that bit of feedback over 60% said they were still leaning toward the Mini.

When we discussed the intended use cases for the iPad Mini, every single person with kids mentioned it as a part of their child’s educational process as a key use case. This did not surprise me. What did surprise me was that over half of those who brought up using it as a part of their kids educational process made the point that they believed the iPad would be used in schools in the future and making sure their kids were proficient with it was important and that they wanted their kids to use the same technology at home they will be using in schools.

This bit of feedback is very interesting. Here again we have a thought process that was used for notebooks and PC literacy skills being used for tablets. I truly believe we are moving into a touch literate world.

Some concluding thoughts. I firmly believe, now more than ever, that the tablet is taking the place in the hearts of many consumers as the new personal computer. This again cements in my mind the fact that this market will be much larger than the notebook and desktop market ever was and I believe even closer in size to the smartphone market than people realize.

Our research is continually bringing to light that consumers are thinking about tablets the way they used to think about notebooks. Validating again our conviction of a PC Cliff.

Continually we hear that although price is a consideration they don’t simply want cheap. Consumers are smart and they will pay for value. I believe way to many believe that price is the ultimate decision factor and our research continually validates that is not true. If the mindset around tablets continues to have emotional and personal appeal then there will always be a market for more premium experiences.

What I would be worried about if I am an Apple competitor is that the iPad, and perhaps specifically the iPad Mini, becomes the tablet that large portions of the market cut their teeth on thus becoming the standard. The iPad family, in my opinion, is the only no compromise general purpose tablet on the market. The bottom line is price not as big of a deal as we believe and consumers will pit the iPad against the competition (all which I have had extensive time with). That comparison, with the reality that price is not the ultimate driver, is what competitors should be most concerned about.

Tips For Technological Living: Own Tech, Don’t Let it Own You

[dc]A[/dc]s technology invades our lives and covers every facet of working, playing, learning and more, we as a culture will need to adjust and find balance so as to not get so lost in the digital world that we lose ourselves. We hear frequently about parents desiring to get their kids to shut off the video-game systems and go outside and play. Go out in public to restaurants, coffee shops and malls, and you see people fixated on their screens.

There is nothing wrong with embracing technological advances, however, I think we need to be aware of something important as a digital society. I fear that we may slowly lose the ability to be fully present in a moment or situation.

I noticed this about myself a few years ago while I was on my computer checking e-mail and responding to “important” work stuff. As I was sitting there fully immersed in my screen, one of my daughters was trying to get my attention. I’m not sure how long it took, but I think she had to say, “Daddy! Daddy! Daddy!” about four or five times. I recognized that it should not take me that long to respond, and, more importantly, my eyes were open to the reality that often I was not fully present in many important situations. We are allowing digital distractions to interfere with important moments.

Since then, I have worked to retrain myself to be more fully present when engaging in conversations with my family, friends and colleagues. And I’m resisting the urge to constantly look at my phone to see if I have new e-mail, check Twitter or Facebook or do something that would send a signal to the person across from me that they don’t matter as much as something on my digital device.

Perhaps this is not a problem everyone struggles with, but I am noticing it more and more with young people. I grew up with technology and have little or no recollection of life without a game system or personal computer. I am in my mid-30s and the digital devices I grew up with are light-years different from the ones my kids are growing up with, but the point remains that growing up digital leads to some of the tendencies I am noticing. There’s a lack of ability to be fully present.

I especially notice this problem being rampant where I live and work in Silicon Valley. Just the other day I was observing at a restaurant in Palo Alto, Calif., that’s popular for many business-lunch meetings that most, if not all, of those engaging with other humans were also equally engaged in their digital devices. I watched three different tables and in a time period of 15 minutes, every person at every one of those tables averaged checking their smart phones and responding to something at least three times.

This is clearly just becoming something that is socially acceptable. In a meeting or conversation, it’s now O.K. to turn our attention and be as equally engaged with a smart phone as we are with the person across from us. In fact it is not just O.K. it is normal and in some places expected. We are, after all, a multitasking generation.

In fact, an interesting thread comes up in some of our firm’s consumer interviews that are focused around computing. Very often, the desire to multitask and be engaged with multiple things at one time is a common one when it comes to computing products.

We are becoming not just comfortable with multitasking but we are also becoming experts at it. Multitasking extends from multiple tasks on a single screen to multiple tasks divided to multiple screens. More common in many households in developed countries is the use of a second screen while watching TV. Whether it is a tablet, smart phone or notebook, we are now engaging with multiple tasks on multiple screens, often at the same time. It is not possible for our attention to be divided across multiple tasks and multiple screens–at the same time. I’m guessing that the prior generation may have considered this too much to handle. We are becoming experts in multitasking, but I think it’s time we learn again how to single-task in certain situations and contexts, namely during engagements with human beings.

I am working to do this and I hope to bring my kids up with a heightened awareness of how and when it is important to exercise single-tasking — the importance of being present and engaged in a moment. Relationally, this is a key skill I’d love to see reacquired by the digital generation.

It will not be easy. Screen media competes for our attention and will continue to do so many times during our days. I’d love to see companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google even try to help turn this trend around — perhaps by offering technology like Apple’s Do Not Disturb feature to automatically kick in when I am in a meeting or when I get home.

There is a time and place for technology, but there is also a time and place to be present in the real world. If we can’t recapture the ability to be present, we may find that digital distractions cause life to pass us by.

The Opinion Cast: PCs are losing, Android is Winning?

Sorry for the long delay in our opinion cast. We are implementing a new model that we believe will make it even better. We have sought professional help and brought on a moderator / host Shawn King to produce and moderate our podcast efforts.

In this Opinion Cast we discuss the iPad Mini and the potential impact it could have on the PC industry. Windows 8 is upon us and we discuss Microsoft’s Surface and share some insights on how to think about it and products like it. Lastly, we take a deeper look at John Kirk’s series on Android winning the battles but losing the war.

You can also subscribe to our opinion cast in iTunes here.

PCs Gone Wild

One of the most exciting things happening in the industry right now is the diverse innovation coming from Windows PC OEMs, who are making every type of form factor imaginable. Looking specifically at the traditional PC industry and traditional PC OEMs, I have never seen such a wide array of innovative products flood the market place and more are coming.

All of this is being driven by Windows 8 and Microsoft’s bold approach to build an OS that can support such a diverse range of hardware. I have been using many of these devices and I have some observations.

The first thing that strikes me is how different of an experience one can have with the same Windows 8 OS but with different hardware. Back in the old days, you could select a Windows laptop and expect basically the same experience across the board. Those days are gone, for now at least.

Some form factors perform better as a traditional notebook. Others perform better as a tablet. The touch and trackpad experience varies from device to device. The performance of certain devices is drastically different. Some have drastically better battery life than others. The key point I am making, and the observation that really struck me, is that the device landscape for Windows 8 has become one of trade-offs. To maintain the level of form factor innovation we are seeing around Windows 8, OEM and ODMs will be making key decisions of which trade-offs to make in order to bring certain devices to market with certain features at certain price points.

There has never been an environment like this before and my fear is that it is extremely confusing for interested buyers. Just as the OEMs and ODMs will need to make specific trade-offs, so will certain consumers need to be aware and comfortable with those trade-offs. Although trade-offs and compromises have always been apart of the PC shopping experience, it is severely exasperated to an entirely new level.

Consumers shopping for PCs will be forced to examine the features and functions they value (and at what price) more than ever before. I am intrigued by the kind of impact this internal reflection could cause in the marketplace. The reality is that there are a massive amount of PCs in the market that are 4 years old or older. I’ve come across a range of data on this and from all what I have seen, it appears a conservative number is in the 100 to 120 million range. If we are starting with that number as a base then we would initially think that many consumers are in the market for an upgrade, and in fact they are. However, the hardware diversity and bold transition of Windows 8 may have adverse effects as consumers truly begin shopping with a more refined set of needs, wants, and desires, than ever before.

Interestingly, I came across a story at USA Today which highlighted a survey from a Windows security software company called Avast. In this survey Avast gauged the awareness and likelihood of those in the market to upgrade to Windows 8. Of the 135,329 Windows users who responded to the survey, 33% indicated that they were probably not going to upgrade to Windows 8 in the immediate future and 41% said they were definitely not going to upgrade to Windows 8 in the immediate future. Now the nugget of data that came out of this quantitative survey that got a lot of press yesterday was this: Of those 135,329 Windows users who indicated they were in the market for a new PC, 42% said they were going to switch to an Apple product.

Now many may say, that is one survey and often we have to take data like this with a grain of salt as Ed Bott did in his breakdown of that poll. But I have seen data from a number of other research companies and vendors that all back up this concern and relative uncertainty. However, a key point remains. A large section of the market is hesitant, and a large section of the market is looking at all their options, even if it means switching platforms. Doesn’t necessarily mean they will switch, but they are considering all their options–that is a key point.

The personal computing landscape has changed drastically in the last 3-4 years in that those who bought PCs in that time frame, who are now in the market for a new one, have a much more complex landscape than ever before. The competition for those in the market for upgrades will be fierce and more importantly consumers will be more savvy to their own personal preferences with these devices.

There are a number of scenarios I can see playing out from optimistic to catastrophic for the PC industry and I will look at each briefly.

Tablets and Premium PCs

If you read my column where I shared some high level thoughts on the Surface then you understand my view that the product is not the best tablet nor is it the best notebook. Because I feel the pure tablet form factor perfectly serves the mass market needs, my gut is that consumers will shop for a no compromise tablet. However, we know that the traditional PC still plays a role. So I can see a scenario where consumers buy the best tablet and the best notebook, thus truly giving them the best of both worlds. This doesn’t necessarily mean they buy them in the same year but the point remains that I see a scenario where it could play out this way.

If this happens, and consumers take this road in large numbers, it is very good for many players in the PC ecosystem. An interesting thought on this scenario, is that generally speaking a well made premium PC will have a longer life cycle, thus extending the refresh rate perhaps even longer than it is today for traditional PCs.

Tablets and Low Cost PCs

The other scenario I can see happening and one that may be a bit more troubling for certain companies, is one where consumers buy a no compromise tablet and a very low cost PC. If you buy my logic that the traditional PC form factor over serves the needs for a large section of the mass market, then a key question remains. If consumers, as they reflect and become in line with their true PC usage, realize that the tablet can do upwards of 80% of what they primarily do on a daily basis, then why would they spend lots of money on a product that will not get used every day, week, etc. If the tablet becomes the personal computer and the traditional PC just sits in the other room and is only used for some tasks, then in my opinion the traditional PC loses its perceived value in the eyes of consumers.

In either scenario, the life cycle of the PC is extended and the refresh rate the industry used to enjoy with PCs will most likely shift to tablets. Lower cost PCs may need to be refreshed more often but in this scenario the profit opportunities are not in PCs they are in tablets.

This scenario is one that not every OEM today is poised to compete in and could be challenging for some. The reality is the industry has changed dramatically. Consumers have become way more in tune with what they want and why they want it. That shift will have profound impacts on the types of products we see and who the winners and losers in the market may be in the future.

The PCs gone wild trend of form factor innovation is not just necessary it is a necessity if companies are going to stay in the game, compete, and have sustainable business going forward. I’m excited about the innovation in PC hardware we are seeing today and I am even more excited for what is around the corner.

The Way it Was and the Way it Will Be

My family and I have been up visiting my wife’s grandparents up near the Oregon-California border. We have visited this old-fashioned town many times but today a thought occurred to me as I looked at a dictionary prominently displayed in the living room.

The Websters Dictionary is from 1957 and just over 2300 pages long. It is old enough that the word computer states “one who computes, a reckoner, a calculater.” What strikes me when I look at that picture is not just how much things have changed–since that is undeniable (that entire book is replaced on the iPad with a 20mb app–but rather how many analog process we find commonly in our houses today that will someday be replaced by objects yet to be dreamed up.

I look at our grandparents and parents houses and find many low-tech things. I look around my house and find many high-tech things. But I wonder how many of the high-tech state of the art electronics I have today will look low tech, or be entirely foreign to my grandkids.

My children have no idea what a typewriter is or did. I wonder if their kids will have any idea what a PC is or did.

Will tablets still be around, will smartphones have evolved into something else entirely, or perhaps communications will be embedded into every screen embedded into countless electronics all over the public and private sphere.

It’s fun to dream.

Let’s Talk About the iPad Mini and Ultra-Mobile Computing

[dc]A[/dc]pple announced today that they sold 3 million iPad Mini (Wi-Fi version) and fourth generation iPads in three days. Through some smart discussions with some folks who track supply chain shipments, I estimate that around 1.7 to 2 million of those were iPad Mini’s. Call it an educated guess. Any sane person who saw the product in person and understands the value of tablets to the end consumer, would not be surprised with the Mini’s success. I have a hunch the iPad mini will be one of the hottest sellers this holiday season.

I have had the iPad Mini since Friday and I have observed some interesting things.

An iPad For Everyone

I am drawn to big screens. As impractical as it absolutely would be, I would own the biggest possible HDTV imaginable. However, there are many who are much more practical in these matters than myself – like my wife. This is why the diversification of the tablet form factor, and in this case the iPad, is an important move. The market favors options, and this includes the portfolio from single brands.

We have already heard quite a bit about the iPad Mini in education, particularly k-12, and I do believe it has a great deal of upside in that market but there are a few other segments that I think are particularly interesting for the iPad Mini. Specifically women and China (Asia).

My wife and kids already prefer the iPad Mini over its larger brother. I still use the iPad heavily but I have integrated it into my life in ways most have not and depend on it for a large percentage of my computing tasks. What makes the mini such a delight to use is how easy it is to hold. This, in my mind, has always been the attractive feature of the smaller form factor tablets. This may be the practical feature that many, particularly women, may appreciate about the iPad Mini.

Asia is a market that loves miniaturization. Through the decade plus I have been and industry analyst and have studied the global consumer market, I have been shocked at the ultra-small gadgets and PCs that are particularly popular with Asian consumers. This is why, in my opinion, the iPad Mini is so strategic for Apple in China. Its unique form factor, rich ecosystem of apps, and specific software innovations for the Asian market, give it one of the strongest tablet strategies for Asia. Of course the lower price helps as well.

The iPad Mini represents an option as a part of a portfolio of computing devices from Apple. For many it will be the perfect iPad.

Let’s Go Outside

One of my working hypothesis with tablets, is that their more mobile form factor, allows us to take computing to locations where notebooks can’t or are not suited for. As we have studied tablet usage from a variety of different vantage points we continually come across use cases where tablets are being used in much more mobile context than notebooks. Particularly because one can stand up, walk around, be truly mobile and still use the device.

This is the usage model that I thought would lead the iPad out into the world more often. I have seen people using their iPads at the beach, park, walking in the city, etc., but now having used the Mini, I think this product has a shot at being the iPad we see being used out in public regularly.

The case for this ultra-mobile iPad may be made even stronger with the WAN connected Minis and could spur entirely new usage models for pervasively connected mobile computers.

Going back to the appeal of the Mini for women for a moment. Women are uniquely positioned to embrace this ultra-mobile personal computer because most of them regularly carry a bag or purse in which to store it. The Mini fits into few of my pants back pockets but realistically I would never carry it in my pockets.

To be entirely honest, it was this big screen, connected mobile experience that I genuinely liked about the Galaxy Note 5.3 inch phone. That device was just too clunky as a phone to fit the bill in my opinion. The Mini could lead us into some interesting areas if it not only leaves the house, but gets used in places currently only smartphones get used.

Let’s Play Some Games

Another area that stood out to me with the iPad Mini was gaming. And not just casual gaming, full on immersive, hard core gaming experiences.

I grew up in the Nintendo and beyond era. Even as I got older and had a family, I still enjoy a long gaming session from time to time. I was surprised over the past few years to see so many non-casual and more hardcore immersive games (particularly first person shooters) showing up on the iPad. I tried many of these games and just couldn’t take to them. At first I thought it was the virtual D-pad but now I think it was simply the size of the iPad. Although not impossible, it is awkward, to hold the iPad two handed and still easily use a virtual D-pad and soft buttons on the screen. All that goes out the window with the Mini.

I was pleasantly surprised how great of an experience gaming is on the iPad Mini. I have any number of dedicated mobile gaming consoles and I have to say the Mini is on par with all of them.

We all know games are particularly compelling on tablets, and although there are a number of hardcore and immersive games for the iPad, I am not sure how well they are doing. All of that may change if developers catch wind of the iPad Mini as a gaming platform. The iPad Mini could very well be the device that brings Apple into an entirely new level as a gaming platform.

I am excited to see where Apple, developers, and the market take the iPad Mini. This is a fresh new form factor, and one that absolutely has a different appeal and experience than the iPad. I expect some evolving will happen with both platforms as the consumers try and evaluate both to see which ones meet their needs exactly. This is why it is important to have choice. Not all consumers prefer the same solution, and for Apple’s key growth products–which the iPad is in–making sure there are options for all types of consumers and market needs is essential.

When is a Tablet not a Tablet? When It’s a Surface

Let me start this column out with some context on Windows 8. My mind has changed to a degree about Windows 8 and in particular touch based notebooks and UltraBooks. Several of the Windows 8 PCs I have been using are pure notebook form factors with solid touch-screens. I was never as negative on the addition of touch screens on notebooks as others in the industry, primarily because for over a year now, I have been using my iPad heavily in many work contexts with a keyboard accessory. So the idea of having a keyboard in front of me and touching a screen rather than using a mouse is an everyday way of life. I genuinely believe that many will welcome and enjoy the addition of touch in Windows 8 on many notebook form factors.

I’ll also add this point, Windows 8 may be one of the better Windows releases, if not the best I have seen in some time. I’ll write more on that later and I realize I may be in the minority with that statement.

But now I want to turn my attention to Surface, and more than just Surface, Windows 8 on devices that look and feel more like a tablet.

Just Because You Touch a Screen Doesn’t Make it a Tablet

Simply because a piece of hardware has the ability to touch it, does not make it a tablet. The traditional metaphor of a PC is the desktop / notebook mode. In this mode the screen sits on a desk, or a lap, and is used at arms length. Tablets on the other hand blow that paradigm wide open because they are built to be used while being held—mostly one handed— and operated solely by touch. Tablets are designed, and their experience is designed, to be more intimate and more personal. This does not mean the addition of a keyboard to a tablet is not useful, only that it is not required for most common tasks.

Steve Ballmer made a specific statement about Surface that I want to point out. He said:

Windows 8 is the greatest example of the PC meets the tablet – Steve Ballmer

This quote is a prime example of the way Microsoft thinks about Windows and computing. It highlights that they are still using the old school PC metaphor of computing being done on a desk or lap, at arms length, while stationary. And the Windows 8 platform, as well as the Surface, and many other tablet centric Windows 8 PCs fully conform to this metaphor.

Just look at how Surface was designed and where its value is being positioned. With a kickstand (to prop it up), and a keyboard, AND in landscape mode. All the same features of a notebook. In reality the Surface is a unique new form factor, but it is still largely dependent on the traditional PC computing paradigm. It is designed to converge these two experiences rather than innovate on their differences.

It is important to add here that I am a mature tablet user. I have been using the iPad since the beginning and have it fully melded into all areas of my life in key ways. I also heavily used many tablet PC devices well before Surface. Many writing about Surface rightly point out that it should not be compared to the iPad. I agree, for many of the reasons I point out above, and more to the point that I am not convinced Windows 8 is actually a tablet OS—yet. But to the extend comparing is necessary, it is because the iPad is the gold standard of a tablet experience on the market today.

Ballmer said that Windows 8 is the PC meets a tablet. My response to him is that the iPad is the re-invention of the PC.

That Tablets Advantage is Portrait Mode

I firmly say, and stand on my conviction that the iPad has not only re-invented the PC but changed the computing paradigm for a few reasons — Portrait mode and touch computing (accomplishing complex computing tasks that once required a mouse and keyboard via touch).

I wrote a long analysis on computing in Portrait mode, where I highlight the many advantages of this mode of computing for things like writing, reading, browsing the web, etc. I use portrait mode primarily on my iPad. Only some things like games and a few other apps use landscape exclusively. The iPad, and nearly all of the 275,000 tablet apps and growing not only support both portrait and landscape but they are built uniquely to take advantage of both modes.

Conversely, Windows 8 and Surface, appear to be built primarily for one mode—landscape. Given that Windows 8 is built for a 16:9 format this is not surprising. The software was architected for landscape. Although, the screen can be used in portrait mode, doing so presents a far less enjoyable experience than in landscape. For some this may not be a problem but for me it was a fundamentally counter experience to what I consider a pure tablet experience. Many popular apps, including MSFTs own app store, are built only for landscape mode. A mode that while leaning back in bed, or a couch, etc., is just not comfortable to hold for long periods of time.

I’ve been adamant that browsing the web in portrait mode if far better than in landscape. As is reading books, magazines, etc,. Take a look at the side by side screen shot of the NY Times on Surface and on iPad. Both in portrait mode.

Click for larger image

What happens when you orient Surface to portrait mode, due to the 16:9 aspect ratio, is that everything gets smaller. Where when you flip the iPad, and even Android tablets, the text size stays the same in some cases, or shrinks slightly in others. What you get in portrait mode is more text on a screen, that even when smaller is not crunched or impossible to read. You are able to see more of the web page on the Surface because of 16:9, only the text was much harder to read. Of course you could zoom in or tap in, but that required some time to get the web page consumable. Not a deal breaker, but also not ideal.

Oddly enough two experiences I had were not horrible in portrait mode and you will be baffled by one of them. The first was the Kindle app, which just as I described about the iPad never changed the text size when flipping from portrait to landscape. Which being able to view significantly more text on the screen than the iPad in portrait was a welcome addition. The other experience was with the desktop version of Internet explorer on the Surface. I pointed out a few weeks ago the odd solution of having two different versions of Internet Explorer. In that article I complained that the desktop version of Internet Explorer was not as touch friendly as its Windows 8 app brother. However, it turns out that desktop Internet Explorer is more portrait mode friendly than its Windows 8 app brother. When using Internet Explorer on the desktop, the web operates more like the iPad. When you flip the screen between portrait and landscape the text stays the same size and you simply see more on the screen. Go figure.

Landscape obviously has its advantages in many scenarios like movies, some games, etc. But, in a broad set of tablet use cases portrait is equally and sometimes more important. A true tablet in my opinion provides an excellent experience in both landscape and portrait modes.

All of that to say that there may some hope for Windows 8 from a pure tablet standpoint. Some apps gave me hope while others caused me to shake my head. Portrait mode in Windows 8 will require some specific software approaches from companies and developers who understand portrait and landscape mode and the key tablet use cases for both. It is simply not there yet holistically.

Conclusions

There are more things I like about Surface, and Windows 8, as PCs but not as tablets. I believe that those consumers in the market for a tablet, are not in the market for a PC. Therefore for the tablet market, I am not convinced Surface, or either flavor of Windows 8 is a solution. We will see if this changes or not.

I know many happy Surface customers and many of them have never really used an iPad and are fully in Microsoft’s ecosystem. This may be the recipe of success for Windows 8 PCs.

For Apple, it means they still have no true tablet competition, particularly with the iPad.

Don’t consider this column a review of Surface. That is coming, as their are many things I like about it as a touch based PC, gestures in particular. The main point I am trying to get across is that we need to think about PCs and tablets differently.

When it comes to the tablet discussion, we will need to dive deeper into the 7” form factor role. A form factor Microsoft is avoiding. If Microsoft wants to be serious about tablets, they will need to think long and hard about how to approach the 7” form factor.

I’m sure there is a market for these type of converged devices, but the question is how big? I can see people buying the best pure breed tablet and a very low cost notebook as an equally compelling solution. A solution which actually may be the best of both worlds not a compromise of both worlds.

There is still more to be said in this discussion. Things like how does the iPad stack up to the Surface as a PC? Especially if one does not care about Office. Some may say you can’t compare the Surface to the iPad in terms of a tablet and I may not totally agree but I see their point. However, some may also say you can’t compare the iPad to the Surface in terms of a PC. For that I say we will see.

The Personal Computing Land Grab

It is hard to describe what is happening right now in the personal computing industry than anything other than a massive land grab. The land grab I speak of does not apply as much to traditional “old school” computing devices like desktops and portables, but it does apply to smartphones and tablets.

The point that continues to be forgotten, is that there are still billions of people who do not have a smart phone, tablet, or other form of primary computing device. This point is understandably forgotten because so many in the mainstream media only focus on the here-and-now and that is ok. But in the here-and-now many tend to focus on the market share point as if the market is as big as its going to get. The reality is that specifically with smartphones and tablets we are in the midst of the largest global total addressable market (TAM) expansion we have ever seen.

Just a quick look at some numbers highlights this. Right now we sell around 80-90 million traditional PCs every quarter. That market is not currently expanding. If we believe, as I do, that the tablet market is larger that the traditional PC market, then the upside is still significant. Approximating up to the current quarter, there are less than 20 million tablets sold worldwide on average every quarter. Which means the opportunity is to add tens of millions of new tablet buyers each quarter with the current growth rate of 50-60 percent a year. Smartphones sell just over 100 million world wide every quarter, similarly growing at about 40-50% year over year. Which means tens of millions of new customers will be buying smart phones globally every quarter. This market expansion is being driven by new customers, first time buyers, and that is the key to the land grab.

This global expansion is being driven primarily by Post-PC devices of a highly mobile nature. The limiter with old school PC devices was and still is the form factor. Desktops and portables, due to their design, simply had limited use cases. Namely, you had to be stationary. With a desktop, you sat at a desk and couldn’t move. With a portable, you could move from one location to another but still needed to be stationary to use it. Tablets and smartphones break the computing paradigm of being stationary and bring mobile computing into new places. This is why the market opportunity for tablets and smartphones is much larger than desktops and portables—mobility.

The key to this land grab is entry points, and they key to defending your land is ecosystems.

Getting Consumers To Move Onto Your Land

Step one is get consumers on to your land. If we trace Apple’s strategy back just over 10 years, this was the iPod. The iPod, with its simple yet powerful value proposition, is the product that set the stage for Apple. The iPod could arguably be explained as the catalyst for the post-pc era.

This battle to get consumers onto your land is the single biggest reason the pace of innovation is picking up. Many were shocked that Apple refreshed as many products in their product line just before the holiday quarter. The truth is that most if not all of the refreshes, new product launches, etc, are targeting new customers or ones who have not upgraded in quite some time. Take the iPad Mini for example.

As hard as it is to believe not everyone has an iPad. Yet there is still extreme interest around the tablet form factor. Apple is convinced that once people start using iPads, they have profound and some times life changing experiences. Our own internal consumer research confirms this as well. So for Apple, primary strategy number one, is to break down the barriers to owning an iPad. Apple’s focus is to bring premium features to the market at mainstream prices. We could debate that point all day but an objective look at the pricing and features of all products in the market would validate the point. With every upgrade the brought to their holiday lineup, they stayed true to that formula. And as Tim Cook said, “we are not taking our foot off the gas.” Most Apple competitors aren’t in total control of the gas pedal, yet alone have enough money to keep their foot on the gas. Strategically, this is a key point in the land grab.

Microsoft, and their partner ecosystem, also understand the land grab. Microsoft had, and still has, most of the land of traditional desktops and portables. Key point number one for them is to maintain that land but expand into new ones. Hence their aggressiveness with new form factors across the board. Windows 8’s success hinges on its ability to move into new land during this land grab, namely post-PC devices. This is also where uncertainty still remains about the platforms ability to do so.

The Sticky Ecosystem

Hardware and software get consumers in the door, or onto the land in my analogy. The services are the part of the ecosystem that keep people loyal. iCloud, iTunes, iMessage, etc., are examples of this for Apple. XBOX Live, XBOX Music, Office related services, SkyDrive, etc., are examples of this for Microsoft. All of these services act as glue tying their hardware and software services together in relevant and useful ways for consumers.

The strategy is to get consumers onto your land and keep them there with a strong and useful ecosystem. To some degree these ecosystems are mature and to some degree they are not. The services element of this is one of the most exciting upsides and is still full of unexplored territory.

There is much land still to be grabbed. The pace of innovation is going to continue to accelerate because of it. But this competition will make each competitor better and in the end bring to us, the consumers, some of the most exciting, useful, and enjoyable technology products never before imagined.

The Windows 8 Ecosystem, For Experimental Purposes

[dc]I[/dc]n the coming weeks I will do something for experimental purposes that I have not done for over 10 years. I will be immersing myself in the Windows 8 ecosystem entirely. I converted from the Windows ecosystem to the Apple ecosystem in 2002 and I have never been happier. Apple products work the best for my computing needs and workflow, and as the saying goes, the best product is the product that works best for you.

However, I used to be fully in the Microsoft ecosystem. I started my career in this industry in IT for a semiconductor company and I could troubleshoot, diagnose, and keep Windows working with the best of them. In fact, back in those days, even after converting to Apple’s ecosystem, I was extremely loyal to Pocket PC, then Windows Mobile as my PDA and my smartphone choosing Microsoft’s mobile products over the popular Palm products. I have fond memories of those devices.

What I personally use for my computing ecosystem is irrelevant to the way I do industry analysis. To effectively understand the trends and long term market opportunities we need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of every platform and ecosystem holistically. This is why I did the 4 month test with Android by embedding myself in Google’s ecosystem as much as possible. I will be doing the same thing with Microsoft’s latest offering, Windows 8, in order to fully perform a platform analysis. And I am actually kind of excited about it.

Although, I have committed to Apple’s ecosystem, I am a fan of technology and innovation and I appreciate it no matter where it comes from. Just because I know what products work best for me does not mean I can’t appreciate innovative things about other products of ecosystems. And as mentioned before, this is key for us to assess the short and long term opportunities for those in the technology industry.

So for experimental purposes, for periods of time over the coming months, I will be using the latest HTC Windows 8 smartphone as my primary smartphone, The Acer S7 UltraBook with Touch as my notebook, Surface and the Asus Vivo Tab RT as my tablets, and a few X86 Windows 8 hybrids.

Besides my goal of an exhaustive platform analysis of pros and cons and short and long term opportunities within the Microsoft ecosystem for our clients, I hope to find specific things that I like or appreciate about Microsoft’s latest effort.

I’ve always believed that the most enjoyable computing experience will come when you commit to a platform or ecosystem and stick with it. Each platform and ecosystem looks for unique ways to make their products work better together. I believe that philosophy will yield the most valuable experiences in personal computing.

In my view Apple and Microsoft have the strongest platform and ecosystem stories to day. I say this because they have platforms that span every screen in personal computing. Apple’s is more mature in my opinion but Microsoft is not going anywhere.

Regardless of whose ecosystem you commit to, the future for personal computing is extremely bright.

iPad Mini: The iPad in the Palm of Your Hand

Today’s Apple event was perhaps one of the more interesting to me for a variety of reasons. Apple made a number of announcements that in my opinion give them a strong lineup for this holiday season. Apple has made advances in almost every one of their products in just the last few months. But all eyes today were on the newest member of the iPad family–The iPad Mini.

It took me a long time to come to grips with the reality that Apple was making a smaller iPad. If you have read much of what I have written over the past few months, I explain my belief that the iPad has not yet reached its full potential, and I was concerned that releasing a smaller iPad may deter or delay the iPad reaching its full potential. I was also very keen on some specific and unique positioning for the iPad mini as I stated in a column last Friday. I still believe specific features for families and communities are important going forward but after soaking in the breadth and depth of the Apple announcements from today’s event, my thinking has altered slightly.

It Fits in the Palm of Your Hand

For me the moment of clarity, was when they showed a slide of the new iPad, the iPad Mini, being held comfortably in the palm of a hand. This slide was articulated with the key point that this iPad, the iPad Mini, can do something the iPad can not–fit in the palm of your hand.

This has clearly been a benefit of the 7″ tablet experience if you have ever used one. There was something to being able to hold it easily in one hand. In fact in many of my columns on the 7-8″ tablet form factor, many of our smart commenters remarked on their excitement, or anticipation, of the 7″ tablet form factor because of it being lighter but also easy to hold with one hand.

This is certainly the draw back of the iPad in some but not all use cases. For example, reading on the iPad while laying in bed, reclined, or any position where you are holding the tablet with one hand can be uncomfortable if done for long periods of time. I was thinking about this the other day as I was reflecting on how much I like reading with the Kindle Paperwhite. The primary reason being because it is very light and holding it up for long periods of time during reading requires almost no effort. Paper books are light, and easy to hold. Smaller tablets and e-readers mimic a very natural book like feeling because they are light. This is one of several clear advantages of the smaller tablet form factor.

The first thing that struck me with some of the time I spent handling the iPad Mini was how light it was. By contrast the Kindle Paperwhite with 6″ screen size is .47 pounds and .36 inches thick. The iPad mini is .68 lbs and .28 inches think. I brought my Kindle Paperwhite to the event and held them simultaneously. It was tough to tell the difference in weight.

By taking on the task of delivering a smaller iPad to the market, Apple has in turn designed one of their best iPads yet. But the smaller form factor and cutting edge design is not the only part of the story.

How is it Different than Competing Smaller Tablets?

The answer–as is the case with many platforms–is apps. I was wrong (at least for now) in my initial assumption that the smaller screen size would require custom made apps for the small screen. Apple, by making the screen 7.9 inches, was able to keep the identical resolution as the iPad, so all apps run and look exactly the same. Although slightly scaled down, the apps function and look exactly the same on both the iPad and the Mini. The iPad Mini is literally a full iPad experience in the palm of your hand.

As I reflected on this, I realized I have never personally experienced scaled down tablet apps on a smaller tablet. This is because 7″ Android tablets run scaled up apps built for the smartphone. This means you are running a small screen app and user interface on a larger screen. Apps built for the small screen, were built for just that, a smaller screen.

Yelp on Nexus 7 vs. iPad Mini
Apple showed side by side comparisons of the same smartphone app running on the Nexus 7 and the same iPad app running on the iPad mini. This image is the only one you would need to see to grasp the full value of Apple’s approach with the iPad Mini. The difference in the software experience between a smaller tablet running smartphone apps and a smaller tablet running tablet apps is night and day. The bottom line is that there are only a few hundred tablet apps for Android and several hundred thousand for iPad. This alone gives the iPad Mini a clear and distinct advantage in my opinion. Whether that experience is worth the extra money for consumers will be up to them, but I know it would be worth it to me.

This experience is so new, that it will take time to form a more lengthy analysis of its potential impact. However, what Apple has done with the industrial design is more than impressive. At .68 lbs, 7.2 mm thin, with a 7.9″ screen, running all the over 250,000 iPad apps, Apple has brought the full iPad experience to the palm of a hand. And with an entry price of $329 my guess is it will get into more palm’s than ever before.

Chrome OS, Not Android, is Google’s Future

Google recently updated their Chromebook offering and began running new commercials touting the new product. At $249 it is an aggressive price offering, however, the software by way of web apps will be the key. Although, we are not in a full HTML or browser based world for our key applications, I believe there is a good chance that someday we will be. In many of the scenarios I play out in my head about the future, Chrome and Chrome OS is more important to Google than Android.

There is a debate happening in the industry about whether or not we are heading toward a future where all computing takes place in the browser or where all computing takes place with native or installed software.

Today we download and install software or apps on our PCs, smart phones, tablets, and connected TVs. In the future this may not always be the case. It’s possible that in the future all of our software will run in the browser, not natively as an installed application. We call these applications “web apps.” In my opinion, in the future we won’t install apps we will access them.

A web app is an application that is used through a web browser instead of being downloaded and installed onto your PC or device. A web app has all the functionality of an installed application. The only major difference is that to use a web app you need to be connected to the Internet.

You may think that idea is crazy. We aren’t always connected to the Internet, so why would you want to use software that you can’t use when you’re not connected? That’s a good question. However, if you think about many of the things you use a computer for on a regular basis you will find that they require a connection: E-mail, Facebook, twitter, surfing the Internet, searching the Internet, web browsing, downloading, streaming, and a whole lot more all require the Internet. I’d be willing to bet that for most people, the Internet is involved in over 90% of the things they do with a PC.

But to be fair, most of us are used to what we call the hybrid experience; one in which we take advantage of Internet-based content when possible, while relying on local apps during the times we can’t connect via the various devices we might use in our daily lives.

I had an experience recently where the power went out where I live. This power outage affected a major power source for the cellular service provider data towers, so although I had cell service, I had no mobile data. Between having no mobile data and my power being off, which knocked out my DSL connection, I was literally without the Internet.

It was at that time I realized that without the Internet, my notebook was basically a paperweight. Of course that’s not completely true but everything I needed to do in that moment required the Internet. That experience got me to thinking about all the things I do regularly that require the Internet.

I came up with a list, and the only things I use my PC for that don’t require the Internet are writing, editing photos and making videos. And without the Internet, I can’t send or share my writing or photos or videos.

With that in mind, the argument which states that the Internet should not be required for us to use our computers doesn’t hold water. The reality for most of us is that the Internet is a critical part of our everyday experience with our computers.

This Is Where Chrome OS Comes In

Google recently launched Chromebooks in conjunction with Samsung and Acer. Chromebooks are essentially PCs but with the major difference being that Google’s Chrome browser is the only thing installed on the PC.

Google’s vision for Chromebooks is one similar to the one I described. This vision is where everything we do with our PCs happens inside the browser.

This future heavily depends on where the industry takes future versions of HTML and Javascript. As HTML and Javascript advance, we will be able to have more complex software run in our browsers. HTML and Javascript are the fundamental programming languages used to create web sites and web applications today. In this vision, they essentially become some of the most important programming languages in the future.

There is an interesting example currently based on HTML5 called MugTug. If you check out MugTug.com you will see a web app that lets you actually edit photos. All of this is done in the browser and takes advantage of HTML5. MugTug is a great example of a program as powerful as a native application, except that it runs in the browser.

Google has even taken this one step further, announcing recently that their Chrome browser is beta testing support for the C/C++ programming languages. C and C++ are some of the most common programming languages used to create native desktop and OS applications.

In Google’s announcement in their blog they state:

“Native Client allows C and C++ code to be seamlessly executed inside the browser with security restrictions similar to JavaScript. Native Client apps use Pepper, a set of interfaces that provide C and C++ bindings to the capabilities of HTML5. As a result, developers can now leverage their native code libraries and expertise to deliver portable, high performance web apps.”

This is another confirmation that Chrome OS may become a powerful alternate to a native operating system in the future.

Also there is something important with regard to this vision that I don’t see talked about much. Almost every developer we speak to, is simultaneously developing an iOS, Android, and HTML 5 web app at the same time. They believe it is more economical to do all that work up front then maintain over time. This means that at some point in time there will arguably be just as many web apps as native apps in every major app store. We will of course still need some way to discover these web apps, but over time someone will take a leadership stance in this area.

So Where Is Android In This Vision?

Android fits the model of native OS and native apps all needing to be downloaded and installed. Android also is more focused on mobile devices, not traditional PC form factors. However, in this vision I can imagine Chrome phones and Chrome tablets as an alternative to Android phones and Android tablets.

Part of the reason I bring up the longer-term vision for Chrome is because recently Android has come under quite a bit of legal scrutiny. Google is being sued quite heavily over patent violation claims against Android. Many people are watching this very closely because if Google loses these patent lawsuits, Android’s future comes into question. However, in the vision I am laying out, Android may be a shorter-term play for Google, which means even if they lose and Android loses partners, it doesn’t signal the nail in the coffin for Google.

One other point I’ll make on Android is that it’s not going away in the short term—if ever. There’s too much momentum in hardware, software and services that even if additional licensing costs become associated with Android, the vendors will still pay the costs to license Android. My main point is that in this browser-based computing future, Chrome OS presents the longer-term opportunity for Google and their hardware partners.

What interests me about Google’s Chrome browser and its evolution to Chrome OS as its used on things like Chromebooks is how the browser itself was built in a way to take advantage of all of the computer’s hardware. Specifically the browser can take advantage of things that normally only the operating system does, like the GPU and ports like the microphone, media card readers and USB ports.

It is because Chrome is architected this way that I can see it replacing a traditional OS in the future if all of our software moves to the web.

To use a Wayne Gretzky quote and slightly modify it: Android is where the puck is today. Chrome OS is where the puck is going.

Google is leading this effort with devices that take a clamshell notebook design, but in the near future I will not be surprised if we see Chrome devices in a tablet form factor.

Now to be honest, although I believe we are moving in this direction, I am not sure when this vision will become a reality. Many different pieces need to come together, including devices with persistent, reliable and affordable connections to the Internet.

Some times technology moves at the speed of light, and other times it moves very slowly. This is an area where I think it will move slowly, putting us at least five years away and most likely much longer.

The BIG Opportunity for the iPad Mini

Let me start this column off explaining why I was skeptical of a smaller iPad in Apple’s offering. I have been bullish on tablets from the beginning. From my first experience with the iPad I knew Apple was on to something. In my opinion the iPad in its current form has not reached its full potential as a personal mobile computer. Because I am convinced this is true, the scenario of a smaller iPad that would inevitably cannibalize and potentially delay the potential of the iPad in its current form seemed like a poor long term strategy. However, something I have been thinking about lately may be the key for these products to co-exist and fulfill fundamentally different needs of consumers.

I’ve convinced myself that for Apple to have two different sized iPads, they need to be positioned differently and poised to tackle different market needs. Unlike notebooks, where screen size is partially a matter of preference, but also a matter of primary tasks, tablets play a different role in the lives of consumers. I am a big believer that the iPad in its current form can suffice for many mass market consumers as a notebook replacement. I do not believe the same is true of of a smaller iPad. These two different sized iPads will also offer different software experiences. I do not believe that we will simply see scaled up iPhone apps or scaled down versions of current iPad apps on an iPad mini. This product will shine with custom applications and experiences built for the new screen size.

From Mine to Ours

The BIG opportunity I see for the iPad Mini is to cater to how families or communities use these devices as shared screens in a communal environment. I’ve articulated this before, the concept of a shared screen versus a personal screen, and I think the 7-8″ tablet may represent the perfect form factor for a shared device. Take for example what both Amazon and Barnes and Noble have done in this space.

The Amazon Kindle Fire HD tablet with its FreeTime feature is a solid step in the right direction toward family tablet computing. This solution offers parents the ability to set parental controls for their kids so as they enter FreeTime mode, children are presented with a kid-friendly user interface and access to only approved applications and abilities. Parents can also set limits on how many hours per day kids can play games or watch videos.

Barnes & Noble took Amazon’s important FreeTime concept even further by introducing profiles to the Nook HD. This allows consumers to set up a number of different profiles for each family member. This way, when a particular user logs in, they see only the books, magazines and applications that are of interest to them. Another well thought out part of profiles is that if two people are reading the same book in different profiles, the Nook HD will keep each person’s last read point for them so that they’re not constantly trying to find where they left off. User profiles deliver powerful features and are the best example to date of how a tablet can deliver on a shared family computing experience.

These are experiences that I think shine on a communal or shared screen. These experiences can exist of course on larger tablets but I have a hunch that the smaller tablet form factor will encourage the shift away from the sentiment that the device is mine to the device is ours.

This shift in sentiment from mine to ours could pave the way for entire new software experiences. Just looking at the previous examples I gave from Amazon and Barnes and Noble, show how they are thinking uniquely about this from a software standpoint. I would argue that Apple’s ecosystem is even stronger across the board when you incorporate others screens as well as iCloud to foster and embrace the shift of some devices being ours rather than mine.

What encourages me about this thinking is that it genuinely appeals to the way consumers are using these devices. Some products fit well as a personal product. My smartphone for example is mine and is tied to me in unique ways. The smartphone will also be mine and never ours. A notebook also follows very personal use cases and highly personalized to the individual. The tablet however may be owned by one person but still shared by many in family environments. It is something unique to the tablet form factor that it can comfortably be mine and ours simultaneously. But to my point above, I believe that the smaller tablets those in the 7-8 inch range fit this new paradigm nicely.

Now, I have no idea if the iPad Mini will launch catering to anything I’ve proposed in this column. My point is that whether or not Apple believes it, I believe this is the big opportunity for a smaller iPad. It would be uniquely positioned and create a strong loyalty and stickiness to Apple’s ecosystem for not just the individual but the family as a whole.

A Tale of Two Internet Explorers

I have been playing with Windows 8 on a number of different devices, specifically some touch enabled, and others non-touch enabled. One of the many questions I have been wanting to analyze was how software built for Windows 8 would handle the touch experience and the physical mouse and keyboard experience at the same time. Given that Windows 8, and many Windows 8 hardware configurations, will provide consumers with three potential input mechanisms simultaneously (touch, mouse / trackpad, keyboard).

In concept this sounds like a compelling idea. However, in execution it may be more tricky.

Although I keep in my mind that Windows 8 is still early, and updates will inevitably come, I found how Microsoft handled this dual-state touch + mouse and keyboard scenario with Windows Explorer. Microsoft decided that it would be best to include two different versions of Windows Explorer on Windows 8. There is a Modern UI (Metro) version of IE and there is also the all familiar desktop version of IE. One can be accessed while using Modern UI mode, and the other can be accessed from desktop mode. One is built specifically for touch and one is not. Here are a few simple examples of how that works.

When in Modern UI version of Internet Explorer (version 10), I get a much simpler and full screen user interface. In this Explorer touch works well with links, pinch and zoom, scoll, etc., all work as expected. When I get to a web page with a text input box, the soft keyboard automatically appears so I may enter text.

In desktop version of IE, touch, although supported, does not work nearly as well. Touching links sometimes requires multiple touches, put more importantly when you click a text entry box like the URL bar or a search field, no soft keyboard comes up. This version of IE is built more with the assumption that a mouse / trackpad and physical keyboard is present.

What strikes me about this approach is that it may not be a big deal for some hardware configurations, but it will be a big deal for others. I am caused to wonder about the number of Windows 8 tablets which will be sold without a keyboard included. Will consumers be wise enough to realize that they should avoid using desktop IE on their Windows 8 tablet? Will they even understand there are two different versions designed to work specifically in different modes? Perhaps an equally provocative question is why isn’t the software smart enough to know whether a physical keyboard or trackpad is adjust the experience accordingly. For example, if I happen to be in the desktop version of IE but am using the tablet without a mouse and keyboard present or docked, the soft keyboard should come up automatically.

It is very odd when you are using the desktop version of IE in tablet only mode and you click to enter text and no keyboard comes up. Confusion may abound. However, there is an icon in the lower left hand corner that you can click to bring up the soft keyboard. Perhaps I am nit picking but if no keyboard is present this should happen automatically no matter what the application or mode. I’d even question the presence of the desktop mode in Windows 8 when a physical keyboard is not docked or synced for that matter.

It is this kind of intelligent context switching that is still lacking with many of my experiences with Windows 8. Although I am speculating, I believe that the vast amount of input mechanisms being supported are the point of the challenge.

How software developers and Microsoft handle the multiple context switching opportunities as well as input mechanisms will be fascinating to see. Microsoft has done it by including two different versions of the same application. Let’s hope other software developers can figure out how to harness touch, mouse / trackpad, and soft / physical keyboard all in one program intelligently.

For more reading here is a Quora question someone asked as to why Windows 8 has two different versions of IE. Also here is an article on TechRepublic focusing on how to make desktop IE the default IE to open when clicking a link.

Why Amazon is Not Interested in TI’s Mobile Processor Group

Image Credit: iFixit Some reports have came out that Amazon is interested in TI’s mobile processor division. I find this extremely difficult to believe. I personally, think TI’s move to shift focus from mobile APs (application processors) and more into embedded chipsets is a fascinating market development. However, I think it is a serious stretch to connect the dots that Amazon would use their extremely valuable cash to acquire something they don’t really need given their business model.

If Amazon was in the for profit hardware business then I can see how a case could potentially be made for purchasing TI’s OMAP mobile AP group. However they are not in the for profit hardware business and are rather in the hardware as a service business. They make practically nothing on the hardware and within the business model they are entrenched in, it would take an incredibly long time if ever to recoup their investment in a semiconductor group.

Furthermore, TI licenses and ships the ARM core but does not have an architectural license to customize or alter the chipset design like Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Apple, and Samsung do. If the logic was that Amazon was going to use proprietary semiconductor assets to help them further differentiate their hardware, I’m not sure acquiring TI’s OMAP group would do this. In fact if this was the logic then it would be just as easy, and probably cheaper, for Amazon to acquire an ARM architecture license and simply hire a team of qualified SOC engineers.

However, because Amazon is building a hardware as a service business, it seems unlikely that making a large investment around hardware makes sense. Companies that are in the hardware as a service model are generally better served simply negotiating and buying components rather than making them.

Several reports also mentioned Amazon’s intent to get into the smartphone market and speculated that buying this group from TI could help this initiative. I continue to remain skeptical that Amazon will make a smartphone. I simply can’t see how it fits with their business model. Amazon is a retailer and any argument as to why a retailer should make a smartphone would be null in light of an argument that those same reasons can be accomplished with an app running on any platform. The many reasons why Amazon (a retailer) made a tablet does not translate into why they should make a smartphone.

Of course we can’t rule anything out in this industry, especially considering I would have never guessed an advertising company would have gotten into the smartphone hardware business. Or could I?

Marketing Surface and Windows 8

The first commercial for Microsoft Surface has aired. After seeing it, I’m not sure Microsoft’s partners should be at all worried about the perceived threat of Microsoft competing with them on the hardware front. The commercial itself does absolutely nothing to communicate any valuable reason why a consumer should even remotely consider buying it over something else. I wrote a column a few weeks ago explaining that in today’s day-and-age it is critical to communicate and message to consumers why they should consider your product over something else.

This is not rocket science. Show the product doing something valuable, something consumers can relate to and associate with. Apple, Google, Samsung, etc., are all doing this by messaging and highlighting in their marketing the key benefits of their products.

The Windows 8 preview ads do a little better job by actually showing some use cases with different products. This may sound odd given the market share Microsoft has in traditional PCs but I firmly believe Microsoft is the odd man out with the momentum in this industry and they are the ones in catch up mode.

From the early pricing we are seeing the upcoming flood of Windows 8 products are not going to be on par with other products from a pricing standpoint. Which by default means price is not in their favor. Because of that consumers must be absolutely clear on why they should care at all about this product.

What does it do that others products don’t? What does it empower me to do that others products don’t? What experiences exist on Windows 8 that don’t exist on other devices?

Success in consumer markets requires a good product and good marketing. I’m reserving judgement on whether or not Windows 8 is a good product. When it comes to the marketing, Microsoft needs to convince consumers Windows 8 is relevant to their current and future market needs. The current ads do not do this in my opinion.

In case you hadn’t seen them yet, here they are:

Microsoft Surface Ads

Windows 8 Preview Ads

Netbooks, Tablets, and Good Enough Computing

You may have caught my title and asked “aren’t Netbooks dead? Why are you bringing them up?” That is an excellent question and while Netbooks are mostly dead (they are finding a role in emerging markets) they taught us something very interesting that sheds light on the tablet phenomenon.

Since our firm tracks the computing industry extremely closely, we were doing quite a bit of analysis on the market for Netbooks. Although it was short lived, which we predicted, they taught us something that is fundamentally important to understand. Which is that there is a massive market for computing devices that are good enough.

An Important Evolution

When the Netbook began its rise as a category we started looking at what were the driving factors for their market success. From our consumer interviews we learned a number of interesting things.

First was that most buying a Netbook were not looking to replace a notebook, rather they were looking for a less expensive 2nd, 3rd, 4th, computer for their home and/or family member to be able to get online, do simple tasks, etc. What became clear was that not every member of the household had a personal computer in an average home and many consumers appreciated the low-cost and small size of many Netbooks to fill this void. These products represented a low-cost way to get multiple new PCs in the home for simple tasks and more importantly alternate screens for web browsing. Large numbers of consumers told us that the few PCs they had in the home were constantly being fought over, mainly for web browsing. Netbooks looked like an easy way to get everyone in the home a PC screen of some type. Many knocked the category at the time and believed Netbooks were just truncated PCs, however, they were good enough for the mass market.

But our interest in Netbooks went further into the experience consumers had with them. More often than not consumers mentioned how the capabilities of the Netbook were sufficient for most, and in many cases all, of their every day needs for a personal computer. This led to the good enough computing reality that has opened the eyes of many in the industry. As innovations become saturated and mature, at some point distinct elements of those innovations reach a point of good enough or diminishing returns. At this point, further innovations in the same areas become less apparent and obvious. This is particularly true of things like semiconductors, displays, broadband, etc. In all these instances there comes a point in time where the advancements become harder to distinguish.

An analogy I’ve used frequently when discussing good enough computing is one related to Intel. Back when Intel was pushing Moore’s law heavily and MHZ and then GHZ was a big deal, we could objectively see the speed and performance advancements by simply opening a program like Word or Excel. I recall at many IDF conferences, Intel opening an MS Office program and showing how much faster it opened on the latest generation over the previous. Today, no such example exists for the casual observer to notice the performance benefits of new generation silicon. CPUs have reached a point of good enough for the mass market. And Netbooks brought this realization to light.

Good Enough and Smart Enough

It was this realization and learnings around Netbooks that led us to believe that tablets would be as disruptive as they have been. Tablets, like Netbooks, have taken advantage of the good enough computing paradigm but done so by adding something Netbooks did not–touch. I’ve written extensively on the concept of touch computing and why I believe it is foundational to the future of computing so I won’t go into too much detail here. Touch and the tablet form factor made the good enough experience for consumers even that much more compelling, forcing them to evaluate if they need anything else as far as computers go. Some consumers may need more than a tablet, and some may not, the point is they will decide what works best for them.

The full realization in all of this, is simply that there is a massive section of the market that does not have extreme demands with technology. When we were doing market analysis around Netbooks, we asked consumers the tasks they did with PCs on a regular basis. From that research we learned that the vast majority of those we spoke with, who fell into the early and late majority, used less than five applications daily and none of them were CPU intensive (arguably playing Flash video is CPU intensive but that is a debate for another time).

The key takeaway to understand with good enough computing is that many of the key features and innovations that originally drove demand diminish (i.e CPU speed, memory, resolution, # of apps, etc.) This means that future product generations need to appeal to customers in new ways that go beyond the elements which are good enough. I believe that too often companies get stuck putting too much emphasis on the elements of their products which are already good enough for the mass market, thus those features get glossed over, when in reality they should shift their emphasis to what is new or unique. Quality product marketing, messaging, and positioning will be at a premium going forward.

What appealed to the mass market of computing the past few decades will not be what appealed to them now in a mature and post-mature personal computing landscape. Understanding good enough computing does not mean that you stop innovating. What it does mean, however, is that it will be absolutely critical to be careful not to pre-maturely bring key innovations to market and risk having the mass market not understand the value of them. The key, rather, is to carefully and strategically bring key innovations to market at precisely the right time in which the mass market will value them.

Tablets and Disabilities

Next week I am speaking at the California Educational Technology Professionals Association’s annual gathering. I will be giving several presentations to this technology community specifically about tablets and touch computing. My focus will be how this unique form factor and touch computing will advance computing forward in ways mouse and keyboard computing simply could not.

One of the most profound aspects of touch computing is how it brings new generations into the computing era but will also advance current generations forward. The ways many elderly, who mostly avoiding computing on a grand scale, or rarely got the most of their devices, are embracing tablets and jumping in head first to the personal computing era. Or how kids can instantly pick tablets up and intuitively start using this device to its absolute fullest from the start, all without the steep learning curve of a mouse and keyboard. These are prime examples of the distinct ways touch computing is empowering millions of people every day to get more out of their personal computers.

Touch Computing and Leaning Disabilities

During a recent conversation with a friend, I was inspired to add a new element to the our presentations on tablets in order to demonstrate the profound power of touch computing. I was talking with a friend whose daughter has been diagnosed with mild dyslexia. He was explaining to me some of the exercises and therapy his daughter was going through after school in order to properly train key elements of her brain. As always, my first thought for most problems is to look for ways technology can help solve them, so I proclaimed that there must be an app to help with learning disabilities and specifically dyslexia. There have been numerous reports about how the iPad and specific applications are doing wonders for kids with Autism but I was yet to hear much around other learning disabilities. Since he and his family have an iPad, I started looking for iPad apps for learning disabilities. Sure enough there are apps for that.

As I did some research, I came across and interesting company called Tactus Therapy who has developed a number of applications specifically designed for brain therapy. They have applications to address issues around language, reading, writing, spaced retrieval and visual attention. The application on spaced retrieval is designed for brain trauma patients as well as others suffering from memory issues, and can be used as a treatment for dementia. The visual attention application is the one I became most interested in for left-to-right brain training to address dyslexia.

I purchased several of these applications for my own kids to do, simply because they are extremely good foundational exercises for the brain muscle. However, I also wanted to see how the exercises were built uniquely for touch computing. As you go through the exercises it becomes clear that although it would be possible to use a mouse and keyboard, the best possible way to go through the exercises are to use your fingers. This is especially true as it relates to left-to-right pattern recognition exercises.

If you have ever been around children as they are being taught to read, you notice that they perform an exercise of putting their finger under the word being read. In a specific exercise with the visual attention application, the child is given a specific letter, number, symbol, etc., then asked to scan line by line and touch the target. It requires using your finger to scan each line then touch. This would be fairly tricky with a mouse but more importantly defeat the critical exercise of using your finger in a left to right motion to properly focus on each symbol looking to identify key targets. Touch computing taking on dyslexia.

At a high level, I am continually impressed with the quality of learning and education focused applications on the iPad. I am a parent of two girls, one in fourth grade and one in first grade. I am constantly looking for ways to enhance their education in both useful and fun ways and the iPad is yet to disappoint. When it comes to learning and education applications the quality of apps on iPad trounces every other platform. For parents, I would imagine that is a key point.

These are simply a few examples of many regarding the ways that the iPad and touch computing are changing the way we think about computers and how different groups of consumers use them. In fact if you have never done it, I encourage you to look at Apple’s specifics on accessibility features for iPad. What’s fascinating about this element of touch computing for those with disabilities is that it is an extremely small market yet Apple has built specific features and functions for those with disabilities right into iOS and OS X. Other platforms can cater to folks with disabilities but require third party apps.

As I dig deeper into these examples of the power of touch computers, the more I am convinced that tablets represent the computer for everyone.

Convince Me Not to Buy an iPad

We at Creative Strategies, as a part of our study of consumer markets, frequently interview consumers in order to get a pulse of the market needs, wants, and desires. To do this we have conversations with groups of consumers in a specific part of the adoption curve. I was having a conversation with some folks who would not fall into the early adopter or the early majority but more toward the late majority of consumers. This group, unlike the early majority, represents the largest part of the consumer buying segment and one of the more interesting and diverse. Early adopters are predictable; the early and late majority are not. Their needs wants and desires are often more realistic, practical and nuanced, or one may say more down to earth.

During a recent interview I had an interviewee say something that got me thinking. When I asked a woman how strongly she would consider competing tablets, she said she was willing to consider other tablets but she would need to be convinced not to buy an iPad.

Why Should I Buy This Over That?

What many companies making personal technology products struggle with is address why this over that question. Often times they assume that a single feature can sway a consumer their way. Or some believe price is the ultimate factor. But the reality is that most consumers do not walk into a retail store genuinely unconvinced of what they want or are interested in when walking in the door. Generally speaking, when a consumer walks into a tech retailer to buy a tablet, they don’t walk in uneducated and hope to use retail to make a decision. Right now, since the iPad is the market leader, consumers are walking into retail thinking “I’m very interested in an iPad.” They have their mind mostly made up. For a competitor to have any shot at swaying these consumers, they need to convince them to not buy an iPad.

From our study of the early and late majority and the things they value and find desirable, I am convinced it is still an uphill battle for iPad competitors. This doesn’t mean this will always be true; just that it is right now. Take the iPhone for example. It took just over six years for a single product from a competitor to outsell the iPhone for just one quarter. And with the iPad no single tablet is even close.

The bar the iPad has set is so high that tablet competitors have resolved to try and change the conversation rather than go head to head with the iPad. This is a wise move but the tradeoff is that you focus more on a segment of the market rather than the mass market as a whole. Apple is having success targeting the larger mass market but competitors are having trouble making ground in this market. Again, I’m not saying this will always be true; just that its the current market sentiment.

All Things Being Equal

The challenge for companies trying to gain the attention of consumers is to avoid trying to just make all things equal. The key for competitors is to focus on differentiators that matter to the early and late majority, the biggest part of the market. We can debate all day what those features are, but I remain convinced that software, and specifically apps, are key in appealing to the desires of the market. And it is not just quantity but quality. Consumers want to know they are getting a tablet that will help them make the most of this new form factor.

When it comes to both Android and Windows 8 tablets, their keys to success will reside in the ability to have showcase apps that can not be found elsewhere. The example I like to use is the original XBOX and the game Halo. Halo for Microsoft’s original XBOX was a platform driver. This game alone paired with XBOX Live for online multiplayer play was one of, if not the, primary reason for many who bought the first XBOX. Microsoft was then able to keep many of these consumers loyal but Halo was the gateway to Microsoft’s gaming ecosystem.

Both Android and Microsoft tablets need software that would be considered platform drivers. This would be a step in the right direction to address the why buy this over that question. Perhaps for Microsoft Office will play this role although I am not convinced at least a point.

Ultimately consumers make trade offs in their own personal preference value chain. If they value price, they must evaluate the tradeoffs in things like design quality and cutting edge features or specs for example. Understanding the tradeoffs and having key differentiators are fundamentals to product strategy.

Tablets are tricky and because we are in the maturing cycle where consumers are still figuring out their needs, wants, and desires with them. Because of that, I remain convinced competing with the iPad will be a challenge. The next year will define much of the tablet category. Those companies who have clear and distinct differentiators that clearly make the case for consumer to buy this product over that have a shot. This applies to hardware, software, and services.

Consumers are buying iPad in droves. And if Apple releases a smaller less expensive version of the iPad they will make it even more difficult for competitors. Many millions of consumers are not being convinced to buy other tablets over iPads and they are researching their options more than many assume.

So the key to tablet success? Convince consumers not to buy iPads. Seems simple, but its not.

It’s Good to be Back on the iPhone

I wasn’t terribly vocal about this fact but since June I have been using an Android phone exclusively as my smartphone. Which has been by far the longest I have ever used an Android smartphone for any length of time. I get sent a lot of Android devices and often I pop my SIM into them to use them as my primary phone. This is the only way I feel I can get a true sense of a product and form an opinion, by fully integrating it into my life. Most Android devices I try never last a full week before I have to go back to the iPhone.

The device I used was the Galaxy Nexus running the latest Android OS Jelly Bean. I tried the Galaxy Note 5.3 and the Galaxy SIII for a short time as well but both only lasted a week or so. I much preferred Jelly Bean over the customized versions Samsung put on the Note and the SIII. I was surprised at a number of things I thought were pretty good about Jelly Bean. One I wrote about here, where I talked about Google Now and how Google is building an anticipation engine.

I was also drawn to the larger screen which is probably the strongest feature keeping me from going back to the iPhone. The Galaxy Nexus screen is 4.65 inches and after using it even for a short while, my iPhone 4S felt small. Email was the hardest thing for me to handle with Android. The email client that supports Microsoft Exchange server (which is what my company uses for corporate email) is tolerable at best—at BEST. Email is essential to my work flow because it is my day to day communication with clients. Not only did I dislike the Android email UI, it had weak Exchange support, often failed miserably, and would fail to make a connection to the server several times a week. Leaving me without access to my email while mobile for hours at a time. I am convinced that if Microsoft made a rock solid Outlook client for Android, they would have a healthy revenue stream

The temptation was always there to go back to the iPhone but I committed to trying Android until the iPhone 5 came out and I am glad I did, if for nothing else but to be able to speak more intelligently about that platform’s strengths and weaknesses.

Feels like Home

Then I got my iPhone 5, synced it, got it set up with all my stuff and all of a sudden it felt like I just came home from a long trip. There is just something about iOS that makes me feel comfortable. Part of that is most certainly because I had been using the iPhone since day one, but I also did so out of personal preference and choice. I had concluded that the iPhone was the best product for the needs, wants, and desires that mattered most to me.

Interestingly, I have run into a number of people in my social circles who had the same experience. They took the opportunity to take a break from the iPhone to try some of more popular Android devices. Just about everyone of them switched back to the iPhone 5 and had the same comfortable return and have not looked back.

Often I heard the battle cry from the Android community complaining that the iPhone 5 was just not innovative enough and lacked many of the cutting edge features common on Android smartphones. Many with that sentiment miss an important perspective, one that I truly didn’t fully grasp before using Android for a length of time. This perspective is that comfort and familiarity are actually features. And I would argue that for many consumers comfort and familiarity are just as valuable as a cutting edge spec is to others. The simple truth is that many consumers aren’t interested in going through the hassle to learn a new mobile OS, invest in new applications, and try to set up and get comfortable with a new ecosystem. For many comfort, convenience, and familiarity matter and Apple delivers this plus a great experience, tight integration with other products, amazing industrial design, and a host of other things as well. When you add it all up, it is easy to understand why millions of consumers are staying loyal to the iPhone.

This is why it is important for Apple to cater to their customers, not the customers of other platforms. I believe Apple is perfectly aware that there are groups of consumers out there who simply won’t buy an iPhone. I’m also sure they are ok with that since everyone is free to chose what is best for them. But there are many millions of people who will continue to buy Apple products and it is important that Apple bring them the key features they need and want.

Apple didn’t need to make the iPhone 5 have the largest screen on the market. Rather they needed to make the screen size that is relevant and usable for their customer base. Apple didn’t need to pack every feature and latest spec under the sun. They simply needed to include the ones relevant to their customers.

Related Column: Apple’s 4″ iPhone vs. Android 4″ Plus devices

As I pointed out in my TIME column Monday, personal preference is personal preference. What consumers choose is their business frankly and not the business of others who feel the desire to criticize the choices of those who choose differently than them.

My preference is the iPhone and my own personal experience with the iPhone 5 is that it is practically perfect in every way—for me.

The Future of Apple’s Maps

It looks like the Apple Map story may dominate the conversation today, so I figured I would write something I have been thinking for a while. If you follow much of what I write or much of our focus at Creative Strategies, you will know that we like to look at the big picture. When you look at things from a big picture perspective, you rarely get stuck focusing only in the here and now. All roads lead somewhere and we can choose to look 5 ft ahead or we can look down the road trying to anticipate where it leads. I try to focus on the latter.

Most of the criticism I have seen is not that Apple created their own map software and experience. But that they deprived their customers of what was a superior experience with Google Maps. For iOS customers, Google Maps was the standard and even though it didn’t have turn-by-turn navigation, it sufficed as a map and location service.

The bottom line is, Apple is in transition, this is necessary for the future, and yes it could have been handled better. The open letter from Tim Cook to Apple customers says it all. I personally believe that Apple’s Maps, as it relates to the iOS experience will provide the best possible experience across the platform and is essential to the future of iOS. Many may reasonably suggest that Apple could have added their own map app and left Google Maps on the platform during transition. But as Tim pointed out in his column today, including Google maps would only be letting Google gather more valuable data from iOS customers and thus continue to help their competition.

With that in mind, it is interesting to think about where the Apple Maps road leads. Earlier today Tim pointed out why this move was necessary for Apple for their strategic future and to provide better experiences for Apple customers. I want to look at the future.

More Than Navigation

I used to use Google Maps on iOS as often as anyone. I commute all over Silicon Valley going to meetings at different tech companies all over the Bay Area. Turn-by-turn navigation was what I was missing most from Google Maps on iOS. In fact since I am sent many Android devices, I generally always kept an Android device with me so I could use the turn-by-turn feature. Then my behavior changed. I recently purchased a new car, the Kia Optima Hybrid, which has in-dash navigation included. All of a sudden turn-by-turn navigation is no longer that important to me. In fact I made an interesting observation while car shopping. The vast majority of entry level packages from most major car companies, include in-dash navigation as a feature.

This leads me to believe a strong case can be made that over the next decade, and as people get new cars all over the globe, turn-by-turn may not be the key feature of maps going forward. For Maps, it must be about more than just navigation to compete in the future.

Search, Discover, Decide

What then is the bigger picture task or job that we will be asking a map application to do for us, both now and in the future? Maps is an interesting application in this regard, because it is fundamentally different than a web search. When using a map application, I am desiring something relative to a location. How do I get somewhere from where I currently am? What is around me of interest? Have my friends said or done anything interesting relative to my current location? Are any establishments near me offering any special deals? What are others saying about an establishment near me? I want Dim Sum for lunch, what are the best places around me and what have others said or recommend? The list goes on.

Google handles this in a very interesting way and one that always frustrated me, specifically when it came to reviews or offers. Google Maps on Android prioritizes Google services. Google Maps on Android was recently updated to include Zagat official reviews but user reviews are still only from Google users. Apple’s Maps, however, integrates Yelp consumer reviews right into the map application. A quick search for my favorite BBQ joint near my house on Apple’s maps resulted in all several thousand Yelp reviews. While the same search on the latest Google Maps app yielded 30 reviews from Google users. This got me thinking that it appears Apple is building a map platform that will extend value to app developers to integrate their location based services and data into. This approach is fundamentally different than Google Maps and to be honest Apple’s approach is better for developers.

This is not to say that Google can not or will not take this direction in the future but I would point out that they would be following Apple in this regard if they do. From the short time I have been using Apple’s maps to search for places to eat or go near me, I have already found the experience more useful in making a decision then I ever did Google Maps. And I have been using Jelly Bean on the Galaxy Nexus exclusively for the past three months.

The future of Apple’s Maps looks to be something both consumers and app developers working on location based services can get excited about. Apple is taking an approach that looks to let developers integrate and extend the valuable services and data they are generating into the overall map experience. This approach is good for others, while the other is good for just one company and that companies services.