Potential New Health Features for Apple Watch

When Apple introduced the Apple Watch, they initially positioned it as jewelry that also told time and a few health features.

However, over the last three years, Apple has added many health and fitness features to the Apple Watch, most recently adding ECG and Blood Oxygen monitoring.

Since Apple introduced the Apple Watch and made health monitoring a reason for it to exist, I have wanted two other distinct health features.

The first is related to blood sugar readings for people with diabetes. I have been a diabetic for over 25 years, and at least three times I day, I had to prick my finger to see what my blood sugar readings were and adjust my insulin dose accordingly.

About five years ago, I began using the Dexcom Continuous Glucose monitor to monitor my blood sugars electronically and do away with the pinpricks.

The Dexcom Glucose monitor consists of a sensor patch that I place on my stomach with two tiny prongs that get inserted into my belly that analyzes the interstitial fluids to read my blood sugars. That sensor is connected to a Bluetooth transmitter that then sends that reading to my iPhone, and through the Dexcom app on my Apple Watch, I can see what my blood sugar readings are 24/7.

Three years ago, Apple hinted that this type of blood sugar reading might be able to be done via some special light sensors in an Apple Watch someday, and I admit that I got excited about this prospect. Although my medical insurance covers 50% of the Dexcom product cost, I will pay about $1500 a year for my share of the Dexcom bill.

At CES, a Japanese startup, Quantum Operation, put a glucometer into a watch. Although this was a prototype if indeed Quantum Operation has solved how-to but a blood sugar sensor that uses light to get blood sugar readings, this would be a breakthrough.

Three years later, Apple still has not found a way to add this feature to the Apple watch, although I have seen recent reports that this feature could be in the new Apple Watch later this year.

Samsung is also planning to add blood sugar testing light sensors to their watch shortly.

This would be a promising development that suggests a light sensor-based blood sugar solution could be built into smartwatches in the future.

The second feature that I wanted in the Apple Watch has been for it to read my blood pressure. I had a triple bypass in 2012 and need to take my blood pressure daily. Some attempts to do this with smartwatch bands make the smartwatch bulky since it uses the band like a BP cuff to expand like traditional blood pressure readings you get in a dedicated blood pressure monitor.

At CES, Biospectal showed off its Biospectal OptiBP, which lets a person use a smartphone camera to measure blood pressure. This technology was introduced last fall, and Forbes did a great piece on this product launch of what I consider a highly important health monitoring technology.

If you have been to any doctor, you know that taking your blood pressure is one of the first things they do in any visit. This is because it can tell them a great deal about a person’s heart health at the center of many medical conditions.

This company used CES 2021 to highlight it. The company said a recent independent large-scale clinical study from Scientific Reports in Nature validated Biospectal’s OptiBP ability to measure blood pressure with the same degree of accuracy as the traditional blood pressure cuff. It uses the smartphone’s built-in optical camera lens to record and measure a user’s blood flow at the fingertip in half the time it takes with a traditional cuff (about 20 seconds). I could not find the minimum smartphone camera requirements to allow for this type of BP test. However, I suspect more recent smartphone cameras could be used for this. OptiBP’s proprietary algorithm and optical signal capture methods turn light information into blood pressure values by optically measuring blood flow through the skin.

The Biospectal OptiBP for Android app is in public beta and available now in the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. Biospectal OptiBP for the iOS app is planned for release later this year. The company said that interested participants could register for the public beta or sign up to be notified once Biospectal OptiBP becomes available in their country.

These are breakthrough developments that bode well for wearable health monitors and gives me hope that sometime soon, Apple, Samsung, and others may be able to add these two new health-monitoring features to eventual smartwatches and even fitness trackers.

Out of the Box Thinking for Intel

Over the last year, there have been many stories about how Intel has lost market leadership in process technology and has had trouble meeting some of the demand for PC and server chips as both markets heated up in 2020.

Intel is still at least two years away from moving to 7 nm while TSMC and Samsung are already at 7nm and working on 5 nm for 2023. At the same time, demand for processors is rocketing due to higher demand for chips beyond PCs and servers for use in the auto industry that is moving rapidly to electric cars, IoT, and edge computing devices, and high interest in digitizing just about everything we use in our daily lives.

Intel is investing in upgrading their current fabs and expanding their current fab in Viet Nam, but my good friend, Jim McGregor, a Principal at Trias Research, wrote a piece for EE Times this week that theorizes a way for Intel to expand their fab strategies faster.

The entire article is worth a read but here is the crux of his theory:

The Plan (in theory)
“Now, everything I said until now indicates that it’s a bad time and a huge challenge to spin-off Intel’s manufacturing, so I propose going the other way. Rather than spinning off its manufacturing group, Intel should instead acquire GlobalFoundries.

This would give Intel instant access to more fab capacity for some of the product lines that are already outsourced and even some Intel products that can be manufactured on older process nodes. GlobalFoundries has fabs in Germany, Singapore, and the US. And although GlobalFoundries has stepped away from competing with TSMC and Samsung on the latest process node, it is still one of the top three semiconductor foundries in the world and the most geographically dispersed.

For GlobalFoundries’ largest investor, the Abu Dhabi Government through the Advanced Technology Investment Company (ATIC), the company’s progress to success has been slow and any hopes of building semiconductor fabs in Abu Dhabi appear to be gone. Now that GlobalFoundries is profitable, it can no longer be purchased at a bargain price, but I am sure the Abu Dhabi government would be interested in investing in other industries more likely to diversify the region’s economic base.

Through the acquisition, Intel would gain a management team that understands how to be successful as a foundry, and personnel accustomed to working with outside semiconductor customers. So, I would propose that the GlobalFoundries team lead the integration and eventual transition to being a foundry. Intel could continue to invest in more capacity, including at GlobalFoundries’ newest site in Malta, New York, which has the infrastructure and land for additional fab capacity.

Then, when Intel is in a good position competitively and has extra capacity, it could spin off the manufacturing group while maintaining an interest as both an investor and its largest customer. This would free Intel from the financial and capital overhead of being a semiconductor manufacturer while assuring that it has ample fab capacity for at least the foreseeable future. Intel would still have the option of leveraging TSMC as a manufacturing partner as well as providing the company with a dual foundry capacity with what would likely be the two largest foundries in the world.”

In the article, Jim did point out that the Intel and Global Foundries cultures would likely clash but that this could be managed. More importantly, Intel could gain, in the short and long term, more capacity to meet the increasing demand for processors needed to power our future digital world.

As I read Jim’s article, which I agree in theory could be an interesting strategy for Intel to at least explore, I could not get a sense of how incoming Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger would view this idea.

Pat Gelsinger is one of the smartest people I know. I got to know him when he was Andy Grove’s technical assistant and as he rose through the ranks at Intel until he left 11 years ago to EDS and then become CEO of VMWare.

He does not start in the CEO role until Feb 15th but I am sure he has been in discussions on how to move Intel forward at a time when they have lost ground to AMD and the competition for chips of all kind are accelerating.

Knowing how much Gelsinger is loved inside Intel, his transition to becoming their new CEO should be seamless. However, he will inherit one of the biggest challenges in Intel’s history and he may need to consider many non-traditional ways of doing business if he is to set Intel back on solid ground and moving forward again.

Perhaps acquiring Global Foundries could be one of those out-of-the-box ideas worth serious consideration.

Remote Work, In- Home Education and the Digital Divide.

In the late 1990s, I had the privilege of working with the State of Hawaii to help push the State to accelerate its rollout of high-speed internet connections for their schools.

Although I was born and grew up in Silicon Valley, many of the Filipino side of my family all lived in Hawaii. I was concerned about this State’s understanding of how important I felt the Internet would be for their schools.

I admit my concern was a bit selfish as I had many nieces and nephews in the Hawaii school system. I wanted them to have the same accessibility to high-speed Internet connections that had already become prevalent in California and other states on the mainland by 2000.

I worked directly with the Hawaii Governor at that time, Benjamin Cayetano, to help him and the Hawaii legislature understand the importance of the Internet to its schools and businesses. To his credit, Governor Cayetano moved swiftly to expand Internet connections to all of Hawaii’s schools and became a champion of various high tech initiatives to help the state expand its various tech programs.

An interesting side note to this is that a high-tech exec I know, who grew up on Lanai, knew that the schools there did not have Internet connections, let alone computers for their students. He personally bought computers for a computer lab in the one school Lanai has so that the kids there could have the benefits of their counterparts on the other islands.

Since that time, all States in the US have expanded their high-end internet networks to almost all of their schools and it has become a backbone technology for all education systems in the US and around the world.

However, the coronavirus has shown how unequal access to technology itself divides us. And the implementation of telecommuting has made these issues even worse and disproportionately harm Black and Hispanic Americans.

When people work from home or are forced to home school, they typically need access to a computer, internet speedy enough to handle video calls, and space to work without distractions — and there’s a clear racial divide when it comes to having these things.

Axios recently pointed out these disparities and listed the following data points-

  • Per a 2019 report from Pew Research Center, 58% of Black adults and 57% of Hispanic adults have a laptop or desktop computer, compared with 82% of white adults.
  • 66% of Black adults and 61% of Hispanic adults have broadband access at home. Among white adults, the share is 79%.
  • According to a recent survey from WayUp, Black and Hispanic job applicants are 145% more likely than their white counterparts to be concerned about their ability to do a job remotely.

Solving this type of disparity needs to become a priority sooner than later in the current presidential administration. I realize they have higher priorities to deal with immediately related to the Covid-19 Pandemic, the economy, and other areas that are needed to get our nation back on track.

But making sure that all Americans have high-speed access to the Internet as well as the types of devices and tools needed to help them learn and work, regardless of race or creed, also needs serious attention.

From an industry standpoint, the prices of laptops and especially Chromebooks making it more feasible for even low-income families to have a least one device in the home that can connect to the Internet.

However, here in Silicon Valley, perhaps the most tech-literate area in the US, I have been told by at least two friends that some students in East San Jose’s less affluential region do not have computers of their own unless their school district supplies them.

We are in a digital age that demands connectivity and devices that connect to the Internet and equality mean that the US government, private agencies, and even corporate support need to take this challenge seriously and make sure all workers, as well as students, have equal chances for success.

Why TSMC’s US Fab Is Strategic

Early in 2020, TSMC announced that they would build a $12 billion Fab in Arizona. In December, TSMC purchased the land it will be built on for $89 million.

I admit that I am still in the camp that believes broad manufacturing coming back to the US is a pipe-dream. However, I do see some specialized manufacturing in the US is feasible, and TSMC’s Fab project is a good example. While the actual push to build this Fab in Arizona is ripe with political overtones, it may turn out to be one of the better strategic moves for the US as it deals with multiple threats from China in the future.

The biggest threat I see on the horizon is China’s desire to nationalize Taiwan and bring it back under Chinese control. As I have written here in the past, I have spoken to top execs in Taiwan, and they are on high alert over the potential of China making a concentrated move to secure Taiwan and make sure it is part of China again.

This Dispute between China and Taiwan has been going on for decades ever since Taiwan broke away from China’s political stranglehold in 1949-1950. Under Taiwan’s leadership, Taiwan has developed a strong economy and is the home of the top tech manufacturers like Foxconn, Quanta, Compal, and TSMC, among others. In 1977, the US fundamentally agreed to back Taiwan and help them keep China at bay.

But given China’s recent moves in Hong Kong, Taiwan’s political and business leaders are deeply concerned that China will make some type of move towards trying to bring Taiwan back under Chinese rule as early as 2021.

One of the Taiwanese business leader’s concerns is if China is successful in nationalizing Taiwan, they could exert more control of their businesses. And it seems that one of the bigger prizes that could come out of the Chinese rule of Taiwan would be to get control of TSMC., or at the very least try and legislate who TSMC could make products for in the future.

One Taiwanese tech contact I spoke with at the end of last year told me that China’s national strategy to have products made in China and used especially in Chinese goods could be one other objective besides the political goal to unite Taiwan under the Chinese flag. This contact speculated that China could dictate where chips can be used and make Chinese products the priority.

This has huge ramifications for many US companies who use TSMC to make their processors. AMD, Apple, Samsung, and many others rely on TSMC for their chips. That is why putting a TSMC Fab on US soil is not only good for the US but a strategic one. It could be critical for keeping the flow of custom processors to US and European companies and keep TSMC’s growth moving forward.

I realize that the building of this Arizona Fab will only start sometime in 2021 and could take up to three years to build. In the meantime, the stakes in the US-China relationship are very high. Taiwan and its ties to the global tech supply chain are critical for the success of our tech industry. Allowing China to control this global supply chain through Taiwan could pose huge problems for tech companies in the future.

Taiwan and its ties to the global tech supply are critical for the success of our tech industry. Allowing China to control this global supply chain through Taiwan could pose tech companies’ problems in the future. There is another important point we need to consider a new Fab being constructed now.
The demand for processors for all industries is growing exponentially, and we are already seeing shortages impacting the Auto industry.

Engadget noted this week that ” Ford and Nissan are scaling back production in response to semiconductor shortages. Ford is idling an SUV factory in Kentucky this week, moving up downtime previously scheduled for later in 2021. Nissan, meanwhile, is reducing output at one of its plants in Japan.
Other carmakers may face trouble as well. Volkswagen said in December that it was altering production in China, Europe, and North America due to the shortage. Given the increased demand for semiconductors, it is good that another new fab is being constructed to help meet this growing need.
And it is even better, as well as strategic, that it is being built in the US.

This global hot spot will be one of the biggest issues to follow in 2021.

Rethinking Apple’s Smart Car Project

I suspect many of Apple’s loyal followers have been watching, with interest, Apple’s rumored secret smart car project. If that is you, then you know that the company has a great deal of interest in the automobile’s future, and perhaps, vehicle transportation in general.

Because it is a secret project, there is a lot of speculation about what Apple is doing. Some think Apple is making an actual smart car and should buy Tesla to jump-start their automotive vision.

Others believe they are interested in re-inventing the dashboard and making it smarter. I just got a new car with many bells and whistles, but I am still amazed at how badly the dashboard is designed. The screen is touch, and all the commands must be done through the smart screen.

While it works OK, it is by no means smart and is distracting while driving. When I need to do something simple like changing a radio channel or even changing the screen data, I need things like mileage, water gauges, etc.. I have to take my eyes off the road to see these extra screens.

Apple Car Play makes this dash smarter to a degree with its voice commands, but even then, I still have to take my eyes off the road at times to see the data that comes back to me via Siri commands.

I have another view of what I believe Apple is doing. As you know, Apple has another secret project in the works around Augmented Reality. They have already shown their hand in AR via the iPhone and iPad. They have primed developers with tools to make AR apps for these two platforms.

The third platform that AR will impact Apple will support will be AR/VR goggles or glasses. These glasses are by far the most personal way to deliver AR, and rumors suggest Apple could release their glasses as early as 2021.

While I am excited about AR glasses, I think Apple has a fourth AR platform in the works that is a vital part of their smart car vision.

I have never thought Apple was doing a car but did consider them making the dashboard smarter had some legs. But I believe that Apple’s big smart car project is more of a marriage of their AR and smart cars’ visions.

In this case, the AR visuals will be built into the Windshield and powered by an Apple computer built into the car to deliver AR-based info and content via the Windshield.

Some time ago, discussed with two automotive glass display executives about AR, and one of their “visions” for Windshields was to not only make them smarter but use it to display AR content too.

Imagine if arrows on the windshield display tell you to turn via Apple Maps are visible on your Windshield. Or if any data you need pops up on the Windshield, so you never take your eyes off the road.

I think it is more than plausible and feasible that Apple’s smart car project is more a marriage of their secret smart car and AR project.

There is one other way to deliver AR to automobiles and trucks without it being in the Windshield.

In a recent article in Digital Trends, written by Luke Dormehi, he interviews Jamieson Christmas of Envisics.

According to the article, “Mr. Christmas believes that he’s found the perfect use case for real-life augmented reality holograms. What Envisics has developed is a headset-free, in-car holography system that aims to transform the way we view the road. How? By giving your car an AR overhaul more in line with the kind of HUD technology you’d ordinarily find in a fighter jet or a commercial aircraft worth many millions of dollars.”

The article goes on to quote Mr. Christmas:

“We really are the Retina-grade display of the automotive world,” he said. “Our devices typically work at three to four times the resolution of the human eye. You’re left with an image clarity far beyond that which you would normally experience in a vehicle. Our displays can work to tens of thousands of candelas of brightness, which enables you to see this in the most extreme environments.”

The first-generation version of the technology, projecting a virtual instrument cluster, is available in current Jaguar Land Rovers. The second-gen version, which will go significantly further, is set to appear in GM’s Cadillac Lyriq, currently set for launch in March 2023.”

I encourage you to read the Digital Trends Article and more of Mr. Christmas’s vision as he goes into a lot of detail on how this works.

Envisics approach would be fascinating because it could deliver this to existing cars, which would be a huge market.

While I suspect Apple is watching what Envisics is doing closely, I am more inclined to think that any Apple smart car AR vision would be more focused on being built into vehicles. Of course, this would need auto dealers and Windshield display manufacturers partnerships with whom Apple already has excellent relations today.

Yes, this could be a more futuristic approach, but Apple plays for the long term. That is why I believe Apple’s smart car strategy is very AR focused and designed to change the way intelligent vehicles are created in the future.

Why PC Vendors are Watching Mac Sales Closely

For many years, Apple’s Mac has had a solid run in customers buying computers from Apple. In the last year, Apple has continued to sell over 5 million units per quarter. On the other hand, Windows PC sales dominated pretty much the rest of the market. In the last quarter, according to Gartner, Lenovo sold 18,310 million units, HP sold 15.446 units, and Dell sold 10.827 million PCs. Thanks to demand during the pandemic, Apple sold 5.513 million Macs in Q3, up 7.3% over the same quarter in 2019.

While the Mac has never been a major threat to the big PC makers to date, they still watch Apple closely, especially for any innovations Apple may add to the Mac that might impact the market and, ultimately, their future designs.

But when Apple announced that they have moved on from Intel’s CPU’s to their own, the PC makers have become even more interested in Apple being a potential threat to their PC dominancy.

The biggest reason is that Apple now controls its processor destiny as well as its cost, to a degree. Conservative estimates for a Core i7 processor from Intel cost as much as $80-$90+ per chip. That, along with Apple’s premium pricing model, always kept the Macs well over the same laptop’s price from computers in the Windows camp using the same processor.

For Windows laptop makers, their sweet spot for most of their profits come from making laptops in the $599-$899 range. While they all make Chromebooks priced mostly under $400, margins are slim to none. That is why most of them try to pack as much technology as possible into their laptops in their sweet spot range and market them aggressively. Of course, they all sell even more expensive laptops, but most of the profits and volume come from products in the $599-$899 range.

Apple recently announced a MacBook Air with 256 gigs of storage for $899, the only MacBook to even touch the high end of the Windows PC maker’s sweet spot. But this uses a low-end Intel Core i3 processor and has only eight gigs of memory. Dell sells at Latitude 3510 laptop with an Intel Core i7 processor and 500 gigs of storage for $899.

Apple has invested a great deal in their processor design. Their new A14 Bionic chip is expected to be on some of their laptops, perhaps before the end of the year. Apple has most likely already amortized some of the costs of their designs and using their processors, and they no longer pay the Intel tax.

This shift from Intel to Apple’s homegrown processor has some Windows laptop vendors more worried about Apple potentially threatening their core laptop business. The two price points they are the most worried about, should Apple decide to be more aggressive, is in the range of $799-$899 and using their most powerful A14 Bionic processor. Note this article from Ben Bajarin analyzing how a lower cost Mac entry point could dramatically increase the Macs PC market share.

There is a sense that should Apple offer a Mac in this power and price range; it could pressure their bottom lines. Apple has a great marketing machine, and they are showing more marketing focus on the Mac these days.

Suppose they make a lower cost/higher performance Mac that broaches on prime Windows laptop territory. In that case, it can impact all of the traditional Windows laptop vendors.

This issue is causing some of the PC forecasters to struggle with 2021 forecasts. Apple has not said when we would get our first Mac’s with an Apple homegrown processor, although there are rumors that Apple might hold another event in November to launch the first models.

A more likely scenario is that they launch A14 laptops in early Q1 and market them aggressively. If so, Apple could increase its Mac’s unit sales and potentially decrease some Windows PC sales in the near future.

I have had many discussion’s with Windows Laptop vendors over the years about Apple. These talks were always about Apple, not threatening their overall market position, especially in corporate markets.

Only in the last three months, since Apple announced they were leaving Intel and moving to their own silicon, have I heard a potential concern about Apple making a bid for what is their sweet spot.

Without knowing what Apple will bring to market with its chips and its pricing, it is hard to forecast Apple’s Mac growth at this time. However, their competition is rightly concerned about an Apple move in its direction and will be watching Apple closer than in the past.