Smart Phones – Page 3

HTC One X International: Trading in My iPhone 4S?

HTC announced the HTC One family in Barcelona at Mobile World Congress 2012. The HTC One X was one of the bigger standouts as it indicated the best in breed of Android phones available on the market. Some even said it would threaten the iPhone. Does it live up to the hype? I had the chance to use the HTC One X International version for a few days and I wanted to share my first hand experiences with you, which were very positive.

Background

I have been evaluating Android phones well before the first T-Mobile G1 launched back in 2008. I was a BlackBerry addict like many for so long until the Nexus One arrived, then I switched to Android wholesale….. for a while. The iPhone 4 finally pulled me from the Android world with its consistent performance, robust app store, quality photographs, and perfected HDTV Airplay mirroring functionality. Could the HTC One X International pull me back over to Android with its much more sophisticated ICS Android 4 operating system and higher quality app and media store? Maybe.

What I Enjoyed About the HTC One X International

Facial Login
I have been evaluating face login for about a decade and this is one of the first I have used that worked well. It’s missing a few features like auto-adjusting the display to provide light, but it worked well in most environments. If it did miss-read my face, it backs off to a secondary security method like typed password or drawing a pattern. I have not tested for false positives using photographs or videos either.

Multitasking
Quite simply, I have never used a phone this fast and did so many tasks at the same time as I did with the One X International; installing apps, updating apps, syncing Sugarsync data, and browsing in Chrome Beta at the same time were very fast. As hard as I tried to slow the system to a crawl using real apps and not benchmarks, I failed. This is a first for me as I had previously tried nearly every major flavor of Android phone. I attribute most of the multitasking prowess to the Nvidia Tegra 3 processor with its 4-PLUS-1 quad core architecture. When doing heavy multitasking, all four cores were blaring. When reading email, it only uses the one battery-saver core.

Display
The One X sports a monster 4.7″ HD display at 1,280×720 resolution. In comparison to my 4S, this provides 60% larger viewable image area at a very comparable PPI (pixels per inch). The contrast ratio was one of the best I had ever experienced, too. The georgous display made web surfing, viewing photos, watching movies, and playing games a very enjoyable experience.

Games
This is where the One X showed one of its key strengths. I prefer the eye candy and my preferred games are FPS (first-person shooters). I tried many of the titles in the Nvidia TegraZone to stretch the Tegra 3 as far as it would go. ShadowGun THD looked great not only on the integrated display, but also when displayed on a 60″ HDTV screen. I have an XBOX 360 and while I wouldn’t say it’s the same quality graphical experience as the latest Halo, it is close. To have this capability built into a phone, for “free”, is exceptional. I can see how tomorrow’s phones based on Tegra graphics will give future consoles a run for their money.

Camera
The camera experience overall was positive. I appreciated the fast, multi-picture taking capabilities and taking pictures in low light. I thought my iPhone 4S was fast, but the HTC One X was even faster. I also appreciated taking pictures while I was taking videos, and I can imagine making some very interesting photo-video mashups. Unlike the iPhone, I’m not limited to sharing my pictures from Photos just to Twitter. Right from Gallery, I can share to Facebook, Dropbox, SkyDrive, Flickr, Instagram, Picasa, Skype, and yes, Twitter.

Battery Life
I was pleasantly surprised with the battery life as I didn’t notice many demonstrable differences between the One X and my 4S. One area was web browsing where I was using Chrome beta on the One X, which delivered a fuller web experience than Safari, but felt like it was using more battery. Most impressive was that I could get decent battery life with a four core processor, great mobile graphics, on a display with 60% more area. I have to admit, when I first heard about Tegra 3 on phones, my head went directly to concerns on battery life. Nvidia pulled off something real big by enabling good battery life while having four processor cores and Nvidia graphics.

What I Would Like to See Changed About the HTC One X

Size
This is a personal preference, but I like to control the phone with my thumb, without two hands. . The One X requires me to use two hands which rules it out of quick stop-light usage in the car. Techpinions columnist Ben Bajarin goes into depth here on this idea here.

Charging
Like I said above, I like to multitask with my phone, using it more like a mini-tablet than a simple phone. As I would near the end of a battery charge, I would plug in the phone so I could keep playing or working. Often, I would get a warning message warning me that I was draining power quicker than I could charge the unit. This will hopefully get addressed in a software update as it is inconvenient.

Packaging
A beautiful phone deserves beautiful packaging. If you like eggs, great. The One X ships in what looks like a giant, single egg carton. The phone is beautiful and deserves to sit right next to the iPhone 4S, but the packaging should be hidden from human eyes.

Photo Skin Quality
All my shots of people outside in bright sunlight has a red or pink tinge to their skin. Either I had a defective unit or some calibration is required in the driver. I scoured the web and found a few instances of this happening to others. I cannot imagine this not getting fixed.

Trading in my iPhone 4S?

As I said previously, I prefer smaller phones I can control with one thumb. For those who desire the benefits of a larger display phone like the HTC One X International version, I can recommend this phone to those who don’t have access to LTE. The multitasking and games are better than anything I have used to date and when combined with the awesome 4.7″ display, the One X satisfies.

NVIDIA’S Tegra 3 Leading the Way for Smartphone Modularity

I have been an advocate of modularity before it became popular to do so. The theory seems straight-forward to me, in that if the capabilities of a smartphone were outpacing the usage model drivers of a rich client PC, then consumers someday could use their own smartphone as a PC. Large displays, keyboards and mice still exist in this usage model, but the primary intelligence is in the smartphone then combined with wireless peripherals. At this year’s Mobile World Congress, NVIDIA took us one step closer to this reality with their partners and the formal announcement of Tegra 3 based smartphones.

Tegra 3 for Smartphones

Tegra 3 is NVIDIA’s latest and greatest SOC for smartphones, “superphones“, and tablets. It has four ARM A9- based high performance, 1.5 GHz cores and one “battery saver” core that operates when the lowest power is required. The fifth core comes in handy when the system is idling or when the phone is checking for messages. Tegra 3 also includes a very high performance graphics subsystem for games and watching HD video, much more powerful than Qualcomm’s current Adreno 2XX hardware and software implementation.

NVIDIA announced five major Tegra 3 designs at Mobile World Congress; the HTC One X, LG Optimus 4X HD, ZTE Era, Fujitsu’s “ultra high spec smartphone” and the K-Touch Treasure V8. These wins were in what NVIDIA coins as “superphones” as they have the largest screens, the highest resolutions, the best audio, etc. You get the idea. For example, the HTC One X sports a 4.7″ 720P HD display, the latest Android 4.0 OS, Beats audio, NFC (Near Field Communication), and its own image processor with a 28mm lens to take great pictures at extremely low light. You get the idea.

There is a lot of goodness in the package, but that doesn’t remove the challenge of communicating the benefits of four cores on a 5 inch screen device.

Quad Core Phone Challenge

As I wrote previously, NVIDIA needs to overcome the challenge of leveraging four cores beyond the spec on the retail tear pad. It’s a two part challenge, the first to actually make sure there is a real benefit, then to articulately and simply communicate that. These are similar challenges PC manufacturers had to deal with. The difference is that PC makers had 20 years of dual socket machines to establish an ecosystem and a messaging system. Quad core tablets are an easier challenge and quad core convertibles are even easier in that you can readily spot places where 4 cores matter like web browsing and multitasking. Smartphones is a different situation in that due to screen size limitations, multitab browsing and multitasking rarely pegs a phone to its limits. One major exception is in a modular environment where NVIDIA shines the most.

Tegra 3 Shines the Most in Modular Usage Models

Modularity, simply put, is extending the smartphone beyond the built-in limitations. Those limitations are in the display, audio, and input mechanisms. When the smartphone breaks the barriers of itself, this is where NVIDIA Tegra 3 shines the most. I want to be clear; Tegra 3 is a competitive and differentiated smartphone and tablet SOC without modularity, but is most differentiated when it breaks free from its limited environment.

NVIDIA has done a much better job showing the vision of modularity but its partners could do a better job actually delivering it. On the positive side, partners are showing some levels of modularity. HTC just announced the HTC Link for the HTC One X, software and hardware solution that plugs into an HDTV where you can wirelessly mirror what is on the phone’s display. It’s like Apple’s AirPlay but better in some ways like being able to project a video on the large display and do something different on the phone display, like surfing the web. Details are a bit sketchy specifically for the HTC One X and HTC Link, but I am hopeful they will roll out some useful modular features in the future for usage models. Apple already supports wireless mirroring supporting games so in this way, HTC Link is behind.

What NVIDIA Tegra 3 Should Do

What NVIDIA’s partners need to create is a game console and digital media adapter solution that eliminates the need to buy an XBOX, PlayStation, Wii, Roku, or Apple TV. The partners then need to attack that. All of the base software and hardware is already there and what HTC, ZTE, or LG needs to do now is package it to make it more convenient for gaming. This Tegra 3 “phone-console” should have a simple base near the TV providing it power, wired LAN, HDMI, and USB. This way, someone could connect a wireless game controller and play games like the recently announced Tegra 3 optimized games in great resolutions with rich audio. The user would have the ability to send phone calls to voice mail or even to a Bluetooth headset. Notifications can be muted if desired as well. And of course, if you want to watch Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon movies it’s all there, too. The alternative to this scenario is for a Wi-Fi Direct implementation that doesn’t require a base where the user can utilize the phone as a multi-axis game controller with force feedback. The challenge here is battery life but the user can pause the game or movie and pick up phone calls and messages. This usage model isn’t for everyone, but think for a moment about a teenager or college bound guy who loves gaming, wants a cool phone, and doesn’t have the cash to buy everything. You know the type.

Other types of modularity that NVIDIA’s partners must develop are around productivity, where the phone drives a laptop shell, similar to Motorola’s Lapdock implementations as I analyzed here. Neither the software, hardware, or price made the Lapdock a good solution, but many of the technologies now exist to change that. NVIDIA’s Tegra 3 would be a great start in that it enables real multitasking when using the Lapdock in clamshell PC mode. Android 4.0 provides a much more modular computing environment to properly display applications on a 5″ and 11″ display including scaling the fonts and reorienting windows. The Motorola Lapdock used two environments, one Android Gingerbread a a different one for PC mode. Unsurprisingly, it was a good start but very rough one too, with room to improve.

NVIDIA, the Silicon Modularity Leader with Tegra 3

NVIDIA with its Tegra 3 solution is clearly the current silicon leader to support future modular use cases. They are ahead of the pack with their modularity vision, patiently waiting for their partners to catch up. This was the most evident at CES where NVIDIA showed an ASUS Transformer Prime connected to an XBOX controller and an HDTV playing high quality games. They also demoed the Prime playing high end PC games through remote desktop. Now that is different.

The opportunity for HTC, ZTE, LG and potentially new customers like Sony, RIM, and Nokia is there, and the only question remains is if they see the future well enough to capitalize on it. With all the complaints from handset vendors on differentiation and profitability with Android, I continue to be puzzled by their lack of aggression. An aggressive handset maker will jump on this opportunity in the next two years and make a lot of money doing in the process.

The Case for Intel’s Future Smartphone Success

In my many weekly conversations with industry insiders we discuss Intel’s chances in mobility markets, specifically smartphones. Few people are betting against Qualcomm and for very good reason in that they are entrenched at handset vendors and their 2012 roadmap, at least on paper, looks solid. What few are discussing is how Intel will pick up market share. My last column on Intel’s smartphone efforts outlined what Intel needs to demonstrate quickly to start gaining share and getting people to believe they can be a player. Now I want to take a look at why I believe Intel can and will pick up relevant market share over the next three years.

Intel Finally Broke the Code with Medfield

This isn’t Intel’s first time in mobility. Intel owned XScale, an ARM-based mobile processor that was in the most popular WinCE devices like the Compaq iPaq, one of the more popular Pocket PCs. XScale products even powered Blackberrys for a time as well. Intel sold the entire XScale mobile application processor business to Marvell in 2006 for $600M. This move was driven by Intel’s desire to focus on X86 designs. What followed were some failed mobile attempts with Menlo and Moorestown, two low power, Atom-branded processors that made their way into MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices). It appeared that Intel would make grand announcements with big names like LG for smartphones then nothing would happen afterward. Things are very different with Medfield. Handsets are at China Unicom in testing for Lenovo and Motorola announced their handsets would be at carriers for the summer.

Medfield is a huge step forward in design and integration for Intel. First, it combines the application processor with I/O capabilities on a single chip. This saves handset makers integration time and board space. Secondly, it is paired with the Intel XMM 6260 radio based on the Infineon Wireless Solutions (WLS) acquisition. This increases the Intel revenue BOM (Bill of Material) and also helps with handset integration. Finally, Intel has embraced the Android mobile OS in a huge way with a large developer investment and will provide optimized drivers for Medfield’s subsystems. This move is in contrast to their MeeGo OS efforts that didn’t go anywhere. Intel has even gone to the effort to emulate ARM instructions so that it can run native apps that talk directly to ARM. These apps are typically games that need to be closer to the hardware. This is a very good start for Intel, but as I tell my clients, if there are 10 steps to mobile silicon success, Intel just successfully crossed step 3.

It’s a Tough Smartphone Market

Intel made some very serious headway with Medfield, but it is a very competitive market out there. According to IDC, in Q4 2011, Apple and Samsung combined to garner almost 50% of the smartphone market. As I pointed out in my previous column, Apple already designs their A-Series processors and I don’t see that changing. I expect Samsung with the exception of the very low end to lean into their own Exynos silicon. Nokia at 12% Q4 smartphone share is tied to Windows Phone and Qualcomm at least for the short term. Struggling RIM doesn’t need another variable to worry about with their muddled operating system strategy and is currently tied to Qualcomm. Finally, HTC is rumored to tie up with NVIDIA on its Tegra platform on the high end. Who does this leave for Intel?

For Intel in the short term, with Motorola and Lenovo on-board, this leaves private label for carriers, LG, Sony, ZTE, Huawei, Kyocera, Sanyo and a very long tail of small manufacturers. The long tail will be a challenge for Medfield until Intel waterfalls the products line to be cost-competitive with lower end models. I expect Intel to start waterfalling products down in the end of 2012.

Why Intel Could Succeed

While I outlined the many challenges, Intel could very well succeed in the space longer term. First, the phone marketplace is a rapidly changing market. Not only have there been tremendous share shifts in the last two years, but feature phones are migrating to smartphone market resulting in exploding growth.

Operating systems are clear from shaking out. Microsoft will not go gently into the night with Windows Phone and will invest what it takes to be successful even if it takes another Nokia-like investment to own another platform. I also believe once Microsoft starts gaining share, they will devote resources for X86 on Windows Phone 8 or 9 platforms. They see Intel as successful with Medfield and the WINTEL alliance could be brought back from the dead. Long-term, I do not believe Samsung will be happy licensing someone else’s operating system, particularly with Apple’s integration and experience success. I expect Samsung to do one of three things, possibly two; increase investment in Bada to a point that it can compete with Android in a closed environment, embrace webOS, oe lean heavily into Tizen. Marketplaces in dynamic change are an opportunity for newcomers, even companies worth $140B like Intel.

One other important factor that hasn’t fully played out is “carrier versus handset-maker” dominance. Up until the Apple iPhone, the carriers dictated terms to the handset makers. Every carrier who has adopted the iPhone has taken a gross margin reduction. This doesn’t mean they made a bad decision; they had to carry the iPhone. That carrier margin reduction money is going to Apple and not the carriers. Carriers are strategizing how they can regain that dominance going forward and I believe Intel will part of those plans. Intel has the capability to partner with an extremely low cost manufacturer or ODM an entire solution, white label it to a carrier and provide a competitive Android experience. I expect a few key announcements this month at this year’s Mobile World Congress.

Of course, we cannot forget about Intel’s technology. According to tests run at Anandtech, Intel’s Medfield is competitive in power at 32nm LP so you must assume that it only gets better at Intel ’s 22 nm 3 D Tri –Gate technology. Intel will roll Atom into 22nm in 2013 and 14nm in 2014. This is all the while in 2012 TSMC is at best case at 28nm and GLOBALFOUNDRIES and Samsung is at 32nm.

I define success as the ability to reach a relevant level of profitable business that supports the desired brand goals. For Intel, this doesn’t need to be 80% like they have in the PC market, but needs to be a profitable 20%.

What this Means for Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and NVIDIA

Over a period of three years, Intel will start to take market share from Qualcomm, Texas Instruments and NVIDIA, albeit very small in 2012. As Intel integrates wireless, moves to 14nm, and waterfalls their offerings to lower price point smartphones, this makes much more competitive to handset makers and carriers. I expect Huawei, ZTE, or a major carrier to go big with Intel in 2013 which will make a huge difference. One thing to remember about Intel; unlike others in the marketplace, Intel also captures the manufacturing margin TSMC and GLOBALFOUNDRIES makes and the design margin ARM earns. While Intel has a long way to go in proving themselves, they have the start they never had before at a time to take advantage of the mammoth growth in smartphones. Never count Intel out of any market, no matter how many times they have tried and failed.

What Intel Must Demonstrate in Smartphones (and soon)

Intel made a big splash at CES 2012 with the announcement that Motorola and Lenovo committed to Intel’s Medfield smartphone solution. This came on the heels of a disappointing break-up between Intel and Nokia as well as a lack of previous traction with LG. While Intel has come farther than they have ever come before with one of their X86 SOCs, they still have a long way to go to claim smartphone victory. Of course Intel knows this and is working diligently and sparing no expense. The biggest challenge Intel faces is attacking a market where the incumbent, ARM ecosystem partners Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and Texas Instruments have almost 100% market share. To start gaining share in smartphones, Intel must demonstrate many things in the near future.

More Design Wins with Key Players

The Motorola announcement was impressive in that Moto has a respected name in smartphones, but they won’t carry Intel that far alone. Lenovo is an even smaller player and while very successful in PCs, hasn’t been able to secure a lot of smartphone market share even in their home country, China. Intel knows they need a few more partners to start chipping away at market share and I expect them to announce at least one at this year’s Mobile World Congress.

One of the challenges is that many of the top players are already locked-in in one way or another, Intel has some negative history with, or has rapidly declining share. Apple already has their own A-Series SOC, Samsung has Exynos SOC, and Nokia rebuffed Intel last year and is clearly locked into ARM and Microsoft for the time being. RIM as a partner is a shaky proposition and HTC is an aggressive player but is recently dropping share. That leaves lower smartphone market share holders LG, Sony, Sharp, NEC and ZTE in the short term.

Longer term, I don’t expect Apple or Samsung to get out of the SOC business because they have been successful with their own strategies. I cannot see Nokia or Microsoft motivated to drive a change or provide dual support for X86 until Windows 9. RIM is in a free-fall with no bottom in sight. Intel is forced to take the long-term approach as they are with Lenovo by developing smaller smartphone players to become larger ones. ZTE certainly is a good long term prospect as is Huawei. If Intel can leverage their PC franchise with them I could see them being successful.

Relevant, Differentiated, and Demonstrable Usage Models

In fighting any incumbent, the new entrant must provide something well above and beyond what the incumbent offers to incent a change in behavior. I am assuming that Intel won’t lead in low price or lowest development cost, so they must offer handset makers or the carriers a way to make more money or get consumers to demand an Intel-based smartphone. Regardless of which variable Intel wants to push, they must devise relevant, differentiated and demonstrable usage models that ARM cannot.

By relevant I mean that it must be fixing a known pain point or creating a real “wow” feature consumers never asked for, but is so cool it cannot be passed up. One pain point example is battery life. Battery life is simply not good enough on smartphones when used many times daily. If this weren’t true, car chargers and battery backs wouldn’t be so popular. Wireless display is useful and cool but not differentiated in that Apple can enable this via AirPlay. Demonstrable means that it must be demonstrated at the store, an ad, or on-line on a web site. If something isn’t demonstrable then it may as well not exist.

I would like to see Intel invest heavily in modularity, or the ability to best turn the smartphone into a PC through wireless display and wireless input. Yes, this is dangerous short-term in that if Intel does a great job at it then they could eat into their PC processor franchise. But, this is the innovator’s dilemma, and a leader must sacrifice something today to get something tomorrow. I could envision an Intel-based emerging region smartphone that enables PC functionality. ARM cannot offer this well today but will be able to in the future with their A15 and beyond-based silicon. Intel should jump on the modularity opportunity while it lasts.

One other opportunity here is for Intel to leverage their end-to-end experience from the X86-based Intel smartphone to the X86-based data center. If Intel can demonstrate something incredible in the end-to-end experience with something like security or a super-fast virtualized desktop, this could be incredibly impactful. One thing that will be with us for at least another 5 years is bandwidth limitation.

Carrier Excitement

Outside of Apple, the carriers are the gatekeepers. Consumers must go through them to get the wireless plans, the phones, and most importantly, the wireless subsidy. Apple’s market entry strategy with AT&T on the iPhone was a strategic masterpiece in how to get into a market and change the rules over time. Apple drove so much consumer demand for iPhones that the carriers were begging Apple to carry the iPhone, the exact opposite of the previous decade.

Intel must get carriers excited in the new usage models, bring them a new stream of revenue they feel they are being cut out from, or lower their costs. Intel doesn’t bring them revenue from content side but could I can imagine Intel enabling telcos to get a piece of classic retailer’s PC action once “family plans” become a reality. While telco-distributed PCs weren’t a big success in the past, this was due primarily from the absence of family data plans. I can also imagine Intel helping telcos lower the costs of their massive data centers with Xeon-based servers. Finally, if Intel could shift traffic on the already oversold “wire” by shifting processing done in the cloud and onto their SOCs, this would be very good in a bandwidth-constrained environment.

Competitive Handset Power

At CES, Intel showed some very impressive battery life figures for Medfield handsets:

• 6 hour HD video playback

• 5 hours 3G browsing

• 45 hour audio playback

• 8 hour 3G talk time

• 14 day standby

This was measured on Intel’s own reference platform which is somewhat representative of how OEMs handsets will perform. What will be very telling will be how Medfield performs on a Tier 1 handset maker, Motorola when they launch in Q3 2012. There is no reason to think the Moto handset won’t get as impressive battery life figures, but Intel could gain even more credibility by releasing those figures as available.

When Will We Know When/If Intel’s Smartphone Effort is a Success?

Intel has slowly but surely made inroads into the smartphone market. Medfield is impressive but competing with and taking share from an incumbent with 99%+ market share is a daunting task. The easy answer to measure Intel progress is by market share alone but that’s lazy. I believe that Intel smartphone efforts should first be measured by handset carrier alliances, the number of handset wins, the handset quality and the new end usage models their SOCs and software can enable. As these efforts lead to potential share gain does it make sense to start measuring and scrutinizing share.

Why the PC Industry Cannot Ignore Smartphones

When HP abandoned their smartphone and tablet business and webOS last August, many in the industry were disappointed in the speed of the Palm acquisition and the quick dismantling of it. Some who consider themselves "business-savvy" said it was the wise approach as it wasn’t core to HP’s corporate mission. They said that smartphones were a distraction to competing with IBM and even Dell. We won’t know until 3-5 years from now whether it was a good decision or not.

I believe though, that just as PC companies fought to stay away from the sub-$1,000 PC market in the 90’s, PC makers who don’t embrace smartphones could be out of the client hardware business in 5 years.

Some Context

Over the last 20 years, PC hardware and software have done this little dance where one is ahead of the other. New software came out that required better hardware, then the new hardware outpaced the old software and the cycle continued. With the better hardware and software came new features and usage models like multimedia, desktop publishing, 3D games, DVD video, videoconferencing, digital photography, the visual internet, and video editing. Then Microsoft Vista was launched and it seemed no matter how much hardware users threw at it, issues still existed. Microsoft then spent the next few years fixing Vista and launched Windows 7 instead of developing environments for new rich client usage models. Windows 7 actually took less hardware resources than Vista, the first time a Microsoft OS could say this. Microsoft is even publicly communicating that Windows 8 will take less resources than Windows 7. So what happened? Did the industry run out of usage models to consume rich PC cycles? No, there are many usage models that need to be developed that use rich PC clients.

What happened was netbooks, smartphones and tablets. Netbooks threatened Microsoft and forced them to re-configure Windows XP for the the small, cheap laptops. This was in response to the first netbooks, loaded with Linux, getting shipped into Best Buy and direct on the internet. In retrospect this wasn’t a threat to Microsoft, as those netbooks had a reported 50%+ return rate. After netbooks came MIDs and after MIDs failed came touch smartphones and the iPad. Once the iPhone and iPad showed strong sales it was clear that the center of design was moving to mobility even though needs the rich client PC could solve didn’t just go away.

Windows 8 and Rich PC Clients

Windows 8 was clearly architected to provide a tablet alternative to the iPad and stem the flow from Windows to iOS and Android. Most of the work has been to provide a new user and development environment called Metro, WinRT and to enable ARM SOCs. None of these investments does a single thing to propel the traditional rich PC client forward, maybe with the exception of enabling touch on an all-in-one desktop. Without Microsoft making major investments to propel the rich client forward, it won’t move forward even to the dismay of Intel, AMD and Nvidia. I want to be clear that there are still problems that the rich client PC can solve but the software ecosystem and VC investment is enamored primarily with tablet, smartphones and the cloud. Without Microsoft’s investment in rich PC clients, thinner clients like phones and tablets will evolve at a much faster rate than rich PCs.

The Consequences of Not Investing in the Rich PC Client

With the software ecosystem driving "thin" clients at a much faster rate than "rich" clients, the consequences start to emerge. We are seeing them around us every today. Users are spending more time with their tablets and smartphones than they are with their PCs. Savvy users are doing higher-order content creation like photo editing, video editing and even making music with GarageBand. That doesn’t mean that they don’t need their PCs today. They do, because neither smartphones nor tablets can do everything what a PC or Mac can do…. at least today. Display size, input method and lack of software modulraity are the biggest challenges today.

Enter Smartphone Modularity

Today, many users in traditional regions require at least a smartphone and a PC, and a tablet is an adder. Tomorrow, if users can easily attach a keyboard to a tablet via a convertible design, they may not need a PC as we know it today. It’s not a productive discussion if we debate if we call this a PC with a removable display or a tablet with a keyboard. What’s important is that some users won’t need three devices, they’ll just need two.

What about having just one compute device, a smartphone, and the rest of the devices are merely displays or shells? Sounds a bit aggressive but lets peel this back:

Apps: If you believe that the smartphone ecosystem and apps moves a lot faster than the rich client ecosystem, then that says that thin clients at some point will be able to run the same rich apps as a PC. Then the question becomes, "when".
OS/Dev Environment: iOS, Windows, and Android are all becoming modular, in that their goal is that you write once and deploy everywhere. Specifically, write once for a dev environment and deploy to a watch, phone, tablet, PC and TV or console.
Hardware: Fixed function blocks and programmable blocks on tablet and smartphone SOCs are taking over many of the laborious tasks general purpose CPUs once worked on. This is why many smartphones can display a beautiful 1080P video on an HDTV. This is true for video decode, video and photo cleanup, and natural user interfaces too. 3D graphics will continue to be an important subsystem in the SOC block.
Display: With WiDi, WiFi Direct, and WiFi AC on the mainstream horizon, there’s no reason to think that a user cannot beautifully display their apps from their 4" smartphone display to a 32" high resolution PC display. Today with my iPhone 4s I can display 1024×768 via AirPlay mirroring with a little lag but that’s today via a router and WiFi network. I can connect today via hardwire and it looks really good. In the future, the image and fonts will scale resolutions to the display and the lag will disappear, meaning I won’t even need to physically dock my smartphone. It will all be done wirelessly.
Peripherals: Already today, depending on the OS, smartphones can accept keyboard, mouse and joystick via Bluetooth, WiFi or USB. The fact that an iPad cannot use a mouse is about marketing and not capability.

Smartphone Modularity a Sure Bet?

As in life, there are no sure things, but the smartphone and cloud ecosystem will be driving toward smartphone modularity to the point where they want you to forget about PCs. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are building scalable operating systems and development environments to support this. Why Microsoft? I believe they see that the future of the client is the smartphone and if they don’t win in smartphones, they could lose the future client. They can’t just abandon PCs today, so they are inching toward that with a scalable Metro-Desktop interface and dev environment. Metro for Windows 8 means for Metro apps not just for the PC, but for the tablet and the Windows smartphone. The big question is, if Microsoft sees the decline of the PC platform in favor of the smartphone, then why aren’t all the Windows PC OEMs seeing this too? One thing I am certain of- the PC industry cannot ignore the smartphone market or they won’t be in the client computing market in the long-term.

Apple iCloud Shortcomings Provide a Competitive Opportunity

Apple iCloud launched two months ago to huge fanfare and punditry. It’s no surprise given the huge future opportunity with the cloud. Also, it was a big deal for Apple given their past online endeavors had been so unsuccessful that even Steve Jobs issued out one of the few apologies Apple had ever made. In that case, it was about MobileMe. Two months in, Apple has done an admirable job, but it’s clear if they don’t plug some holes, competition has the ability to swoop and and deliver a much more user centric, comprehensive solution.

iCloud Problem #1: Lack of video sync
Unlike photos with Photostream, iCloud will not sync videos taken off of an iPhone and sync to a consumer’s iPad, PC, Mac, or Apple TV. So that last minute winning basketball score…. you are out of luck. Lose the video? Oops… With advanced and mainstreamers users already embracing video this is a huge hole that will be be filled by someone. Bandwidth isn’t an excuse because there’s certainly enough of that over WiFi at home or the business. This is a hole that Google could easily fill in that they get video via YouTube. And with Apple owning both ends of the pipeline, they could even develop a proprietary CODEC that shrinks and expands the files minimizing bandwidth even over WiFi. Microsoft certainly has the capability given they own the PC market and with Live Mesh could provide an solution that never touches an external server.

iCloud Problem #2: Fractured productivity pipeline
Unlike photos, iCloud requires significant user intervention to sync documents, presentations, and spreadsheets between iOS devices and PCs/Macs. If a user creates a document on an iPad and wants to pull it into Pages for Mac, the user is required to download from iCloud.com. After changes are made on the Mac, the user needs to drop it back into iCloud.com. Seems like syncing documents folder on the Mac and PC would have been a whole lot easier. Again, an opportunity for Google Docs and Office 365 from Microsoft.

iCloud Problem #3: Lack of on-line photos
Unlike Google Picasaweb and Yahoo Flickr, iCloud provides no way to go online and view, download, and share pictures from a web browser. This is a very basic feature that is surprising in its absence. Microsoft Live Mesh and Windows Live service can easily fill in this gap.

iCloud Problem #4: PDFs are books, not documents
For most consumers, PDFs are intended to be files intended to be uneditable documents. They are so pervasive that even global governments use them as standard document formats. How does iCloud treat them? As books, of course. In Apples war with Adobe they have crossed the line and have sacrificed the consumer in the process. This is easily addressed by Google and Microsoft.

Filling the Gap
Many companies can fill the gap opened by the lack of iCloud comprehensiveness, timing, and completeness. They fall into two categories; niche plays and comprehensiveness plays.

From a comprehensive standpoint, there are three options, Google, Microsoft and an OEM. Google and Microsoft solutions are straightforward, but the OEM play is a bit complex. Google and Microsoft can build cross platform smartphone, tablet and desktop apps that keep everything in sync. Google already has many desktop apps, with Picasa 3 already filling the comprehensive photo sync role to Picasa Web. Microsoft already has a comprehensive solution with LiveMesh and Office 365 but need to provide more robust smartphone and tablet integration. OEMs like HP, Sony and Dell could either build their own infrastructure or partner with companies like Box, Dropbox, or Sugarsync to fulfill that need. They could also partner with Microsoft and Google as well, but sacrifice some level of integration and control.

The niche players are in the market today, companies like Sugarsync, Box, Dropbox and even Evernote. Essentially, a consumer looking for a specific, non-integrated solution can look to these players today to provide cloud sync. While they aren’t always integrated into an end to end pipeline into the apps, they provide a solution today, and maybe even tomorrow who don’t want to get locked into a solution. Most sophisticated and experienced users will actually prefer this approach as they understand the complexity and see the downside to being locked into an app environment. Probably many reading this blog in fact.

Microsoft, Google, and Independents Fill the Gap
I believe Apple is rolling out online, integrated services as fast as it can, prioritizing what it believes consumers will want first. Services hasn’t been Apple’s core competency, as Ping and MobileMe highlight this. It’s on a slow pace which will let Microsoft and Google edge into a market leading position, regardless of Apple’s prowess in phones and tablets. Microsoft will leverage their ~95% share in PCs and Google will leverage their market share advantage in smartphones and search. The big question is, can Apple accelerate into an area rife with competition in an area which isn’t it’s core competency?

Windows 8 Desktop on ARM Decision Driven by Phones and Consoles

There has been a lot written about the possibility of Microsoft not supporting the Windows 8 Desktop environment on the ARM architecture. If true, this could impact Microsoft, ARM and ARM’s licensees and Texas Instruments, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm are in the best position to challenge the high end of the ARM stack and are publicly supported by Microsoft. One question that hasn’t been explored is, why would Microsoft even consider something like this? It’s actually quite simple and makes a lot of sense the position they’re in; it’s all about risk-return and the future of phones and living room consoles.

The Threat to Microsoft

The real short and mid term threat isn’t from Macs stealing significant Windows share from Microsoft, it’s all about the Apple iPad and iOS. It could also be a little about Android, but so far, Android has only seen tablet success in platforms that are little risk to a PC, like the Amazon Kindle Fire. Market-wise, the short term threat is about consumer, too, not business. Businesses work in terms of years, not months. The reality is that while long term, the phone could disrupt the business PC, short term it won’t impact where Microsoft makes their profits today. Businesses, short term, won’t buy three devices for their employees and therefore tablets will most likely get squeezed there. Business employees first need a PC, then a smart phone, and maybe a few a tablet. There could be exceptions, of course, primarily in verticals like healthcare, retail and transportation.

What About Convertibles?

One wild-card are business convertibles. Windows 8 has the best chance here given Microsoft’s ownership on business and if you assume Intel or AMD can deliver custom SOCs with low enough power envelopes, thermal solutions and proper packaging for thin designs. Thinking here is that if business wants a convertible, they’ll also want Windows 8 Desktop and more than likely backward compatibility, something only X86 can provide. So net-net, Microsoft is covered here if Intel and AMD can deliver.

Focus is Consumer and Metro Apps

So the focus for Microsoft then is clearly consumer tablets, and Microsoft needs a ton of developers writing high quality, Metro apps to compete in the space. Metro is clearly the primary Windows 8 tablet interface and Desktop is secondary, as it’s an app. Developers don’t have money or time to burn so most likely they will have to choose between writing a Metro app or rewriting or recompiling their desktop to work with ARM and X86 (Intel and AMD) desktop. It’s not just about development; it’s as expensive for devs to test and validate, too. Many cases it’s more expensive to test and validate than it is to actually develop the app. Strategically, it then could make sense for Microsoft to push development of the Metro apps and possibly by eliminating the Desktop on ARM option, makes the dev’s decision easier.

Strategically, It’s About Phones and the Living Room in the End

Windows 8, Windows Phone 7, and XBOX development environments are currently related but not identical. I would expect down the road we will see an environment that for most apps that don’t need to closely touch the hardware, you write once and deploy onto a Microsoft phone, tablet, PC and XBOX. The unifier here is Metro, so getting developers on Metro is vitally important.

If Microsoft needed to improve the chances developers will swarm to Metro and do it by taking a risk by limiting variables, let’s say by eliminating ARM desktop support, it makes perfect sense.

Gaming AMD’s 2012 Strategy

AMD intends to pursue “growth opportunities” in low-powered devices, emerging markets and Internet-based businesses.

There’s an awful lot of mis-guided analysis wafting about regarding AMD’s new strategic direction, which the company says it will make public in February. This piece is to help you (and me) sort through the facts and the opportunities. I last took a look at AMD’s strategies earlier this year, available here.

Starting With the Facts

AMD is a fabless semiconductor company since 2009. The company depends on GlobalFoundries and soon Taiwan Semiconductor to actually fabricate its chips;
In its latest quarter, AMD had net income of about $100 million on $1.7 billion in revenue. Subsequently, the company announced a restructuring that seeks to cut costs by $118 million in 2012, largely through a reduction in force of about ten percent;
AMD has about a 20% market share in the PC market, which Intel says is growing north of 20% this year, largely in emerging markets;
AMD’s products compete most successfully against rival Intel in the low- to mid-range PC categories, but 2011 PC processors have underwhelmed reviewers, especially in performance as compared to comparable Intel products;
AMD has less than a 10% market share in the server market of about 250,000 units, which grew 7.6% last quarter according to Gartner Group;
AMD’s graphics division competes with nVidia in the discrete graphics chip business, which is growing in profitable commercial applications like high-performance supercomputing and declining in the core PC business as Intel’s integrated graphics is now “good enough” for mainstream buyers;
AMD has no significant expertise in phone and tablet chip design, especially the multi-function “systems on a chip (SOCs)” that make up all of today’s hot sellers.

What Will AMD CEO Rory Read’s Strategy Be?

I have no insider information and no crystal ball. But my eyebrows were seriously raised this morning in perplexity to see several headlines such as “AMD to give up competing with Intel on X86“, which led to “AMD struggling to reinvent itself” in the hometown Mercury News. I will stipulate that AMD is indeed struggling to reinvent itself, as the public process has taken most of 2011. The board of directors itself seems unclear on direction. That said, here is my score card on reinvention opportunities in descending order of attractiveness:

Servers — For not much more work than a desktop high-end Bulldozer microprocessor, AMD makes Opteron 6100 server processors. Hundreds or thousands more revenue dollars per chip at correspondingly higher margins. AMD has a tiny market share, but keeps a foot in the door at the major server OEMs. The company has been late and underdelivered to its OEMs recently. But the problem is execution, not computer science.
Desktop and Notebook PCs — AMD is in this market and the volumes are huge. AMD needs volume to amortize its R&D and fab preparation costs for each generation of products. Twenty percent of a 400 million chip 2011 market is 80 million units! While faster, more competitive chips would help gain market share from Intel, AMD has to execute profitably in the PC space to survive. I see no role for AMD that does not include PCs — unless we are talking about a much smaller, specialized AMD.
Graphics Processors (GPUs) — ATI products are neck-and-neck with nVidia in the discrete graphics card space. But nVidia has done a great job of late creating a high-performance computing market that consumes tens of thousands of commercial-grade (e.g., high price) graphics cards. Intel is about to jump into the HPC space with Knight’s Corner, a many-X86-core chip. Meanwhile, AMD needs the graphics talent onboard to drive innovation in its Fusion processors that marry a processor and graphics on one chip. So, I don’t see an AMD without a graphics component, but neither do I see huge profit pools either.
Getting Out of the X86 Business — If you’re reading along and thinking you might short AMD stock, this is the reason not to: the only legally sanctioned software-compatible competition to X86 inventor Intel. If AMD decides to get out of making X86 chips, it better have a sound strategy in mind and the ability to execute. But be assured that the investment bankers and hedge funds would be flailing elbows to buy the piece of AMD that allows them to mint, er, process X86 chips. So, I describe this option as “sell off the family jewels”, and am not enthralled with the prospects for success in using those funds to generate $6.8 billion in profitable revenue or better to replace today’s X86 business.
Entering the ARM Smartphone and Tablet Market— A sure path to Chapter 11. Remember, AMD no longer makes the chips it designs, so it lacks any fab margin to use elsewhere in the business. It starts against well-experienced ARM processor designers including Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, and TI … and even nVidia. Most ARM licensees take an off-the-shelf design from ARM that is tweaked and married to input-output to create an SOC design, that then competes for space at one of the handful of global fab companies. AMD has absolutely no special sauce to win in the ARM SOC kitchen.To win, AMD would have to execute flawlessly in its maiden start (see execution problems above), gain credibility, nail down 100+ design wins for its second generation, and outrace the largest and most experienced companies in the digital consumer products arena. Oh, and don’t forget volume, profitability, and especially cash flow. It can’t be done. Or if it can be done, the risks are at heart-attack levels.

“AMD intends to pursue “growth opportunities” in low-powered devices, emerging markets and Internet-based businesses.” One way to read that ambiguous sentence by AMD is a strategy that includes:

Tablets and netbooks running X86 Windows 8;
Emerging geographic markets, chasing Intel for the next billion Internet users in places like Brazil, China, and even Africa. Here, AMD’s traditional value play resonates;
Internet-based businesses such as lots of profitable servers in the cloud. Tier 4 datacenters for Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft are a small but off-the-charts growing market.

So, let’s get together in February and see how the strategy chips fall. Or post a comment on your game plan for AMD.

A Scenario Where Smartphones Take Down the PC

If you’ve done any long term strategic planning you know there are few absolutes but, very many scenarios. Tech history shows that even disruptive innovations take time to rollout and many scenarios existed that could have gone both ways. BlockBuster saw digital media coming and I will bet they had scenarios that showed varying levels of digital video acceptance showing what would happen to them if they didn’t lead levels of digital media leadership or lowest price. What if the publishers had stuck to their earlier guns and hastened digital rollouts? That could have given BlockBuster breathing room to develop more and they may still be around in their prior form.

There are other scenarios rolling out that are very interesting in that they could disrupt a giant, 500M unit market. That is, the scenario that has the smartphone “taking out” the personal computer.

I’d like to take a look at a few variables that could increase the likelihood of this happening. Remember, it’s not about absolutes, but about different scenarios and their chance of happening. Also, I’m not saying absolutely it will happen, but it is a viable scenario.

The New Personal
It all starts with the end user and making choices. If posed with the question, “if you had to choose between your phone of the PC, which one would you pick?” Sure, most want both, but making them choose makes them prioritize, and most would pick the phone. Why? One reason is that its so personal. People take it in the bed, bathroom, our pocket, on the dinner table. It knows where we are, what we’re doing, who we’re with, can communicate how we feel, etc. There are even reports that people would rather starve or refrain from sex rather than separate from their phone. Net-net, the phone is more personal and one variable that could, scenario speaking, accelerate the erosion and “take down” of the PC.

Good Enough Computing
Setting input and output aside for a second, the smartphone is pretty good, or good enough, for most email, web, social media, and light content creation. The web has actually “dumbed down” a but to make this possible and apps have helped almost as much Light content creation is writing email, editing photos, creating social media posts, and even taking notes. The big usage model exceptions to this are workstations and extreme PC gaming even though these are starting to be processed in the cloud. Most all else, scenario speaking, can be processed in the cloud.

Modular Designs
The iPhone 4s and the iPad 2 can already wirelessly mirror what is on the phone or tablet on the next best display. Most Android devices and even QNX can work with a full size wireless keyboard and mouse. Extrapolate that ahead three to five years with quad core general purpose processing, today’s console graphics capability, and even better wireless display technologies and it doesn’t seem, scenario speaking, that there won’t be a whole lot the user cannot do.

For “desktop” use, users will be connect to full size displays at high resolutions with full size keyboards, trackpads, and mice. Apple Siri, Microsoft Tellme and Google Voice Actions voice interfaces will be greatly enhanced in future iterations and can serve as the secondary input. Scenario-speaking, laptops could be wireless “shells” and leverage the processing power, graphics, memory, storage and wireless plans. The shells would cost a lot less than a full fledged laptop and have the convenience in that the content, apps, wireless plan is in one place.

One potential modular wild-card are flexible displays. While these have been demonstrated at every CES for over a decade, they appear to be getting very close to reality. While details are hard to come by, Samsung indicated that they will be shipping flexible displays in 2012. This could mean in phones by 2012 or shipped to OEM customers in 2012 for shipment in 2013. HP has been very active as well with their flexible display technology in alliance with ASU, the US Army, Du Pont, and E-Ink. HP is positioning their technology not only great for phones and watches, but also for larger POS displays, interactive advertising, and even on the sides of buildings. As it relates to smartphone modularity, think about “unfolding” a 10″ display from your 3″ device. That changes everything.

Potential Winners and Losers in Scenario
There are obvious winners and losers in this scenario. The big winners will be those who can monetize the smartphone or thin client and the cloud. Losers will be those who are stuck in the old model of computing, scenario speaking. If you’re one of those companies, I’d be rethinking your strategy.

Protectionism Rarely Works Over Time
Any scenario where well established and large losers exist, there will be protectionism. Over time, protecting something with such consumer benefit and such upside for other companies very rarely works. This is especially true for this scenario given the high levels of consumerism. Today, consumers have access to great info from the web and it’s amplified in the social media echo chamber. It’s hard to snow over consumers in any high value scenario.

Scenario Conclusion
The “smartphone kills the PC” scenario isn’t novel or new, but it is certainly one of the most important one of this decade. And certainly one of the most controversial as well given the 500M unit stakes with the winners and losers. How many of those will really be modular smartphones and how many will be PCs as we now it today?

Quad Core Smartphones: What it Will Take to Become Relevant

There has been a lot of industry discussion on multi-core smartphones in the past year, and the dialog has increased with NVIDIA’s launch of Tegra 3, a quad core SOC targeted to phones and tablets. The big question lingering with all of these implementations particularly with phones is, what will end users do with all those general purpose compute units that provide significant incremental benefit? In the end, it’s all about the improved experience that’s relevant, unique, demonstrable, and easily marketable.

Multi-Core Background

Before we talk usage models, we first have to get grounded on some of the technology basics. First, whether it’s a multi-core server, PC, tablet or phone, many these things must exist to fully take advantage of more than one general purpose computing core in any platform:

operating system that efficiently supports multiple cores, multitasking across cores, and mullti-threaded apps
applications that efficiently take advantage of multiple cores
intelligent energy efficiency tradeoffs

Once those elements get into place, you have an environment where multiple cores can be leveraged. The next step is to optimize the platform for energy efficiency. All of the hardware and software platform elements, even down to transistors, must be optimized for low power when you need it and high performance when you need it. The Tegra 3 utilizes a fifth core, which NVIDIA says initiates when extremely low power state is required.

Assuming all the criteria above are met, then it comes down to what an end user can actually do with a phone with four cores.

Modularity Could Be the Key

Quad core phones could potentially add value in “modular” usage environments. While there have been a lot of attempts at driving widespread modularity, most haven’t been a big hit. I personally participated on the Device Bay Consortium when I was at Compaq, along with Intel and Microsoft. It didn’t end up materializing into anything, but the concept at the time from an end user perspective was solid.

Today and beyond, smartphone modularity is quite different than Device Bay’s “modules”. The smartphone concept is simple; use a high powered smartphone which can then extend to different physical environments. These environments span entertainment to productivity. Here are just a few of today’s examples of modularity in use today:

Wirelessly beaming a video from the iPhone 4s over AirPlay and watching it on the TV
Wirelessly beaming a picture from the iPhone 4s over AirPlay and viewing it on the TV
Wirelessly playing a game off of the iPhone 4s over Airplay on an HDTV
Using the Motorola Lapdock and performing productivity apps with an Atrix
Using the Motorola HD Multimedia Dock and listening to music with an Atrix
Using the Motorola HD Multimedia Dock with a wireless keyboard and mouse and large display for productivity.

These are all forms of today’s modularity with different levels of interest, penetration, and adoption.

So what could quad core potentially add to the mix? Here are some potential improved usages:

Modular video and photo editing. These apps have historically always been multithreaded and could leverage a clamshell “dock” similar to the Lapdock or Multimedia Dock.
Modular multi-tab web browsing. Active browser tabs require a lot of performance and overhead. Just use Chrome PC browser and check your performance monitor. iOS5 actually halts the tab when moving to another tab forcing the user to reload the tab.
Modular games that heavily utilize a general purpose processor. Caveat here is that most of the games leverage the GPU a lot more than a general purpose CPU. It all depends on how the game is written, extent of AI use, UI complexity, where physics are done, and how the resources are programmed.
Modular natural user interface. While plugged in and “docked” at the desk or living room, the smartphone could power interfaces like improved voice control and “air” gestures. This may sound like science fiction, but the XBOX 360 is doing it today with Kinect.
Multitasking: Given enough memory and memory bandwidth, more cores typically means better multitasking.

Will It Be Relevant?

Many things need to materialize before anyone can deem a quad core smartphone a good idea or just a marketing idea for advanced users. First, smartphones actually need to ship with quad cores and a modular-capable OS. The HTC Edge is rumored to be the first. Then apps and usage models outlined above need to be tested by users and with benchmarks. Users will have to first “get” the modularity concept and notice an experiential difference. Moving from standard phone to modular experience must be seamless, something that Android 4.0 has the potential to deliver. Finally, some segments of users like enthusiasts will need to see the benchmarks to be swayed to pay more over a dual core phone.

There is a lot of proving to do on quad core smartphones before relevance can be established with any market segment beyond enthusiasts. Enthusiast will always want the biggest and baddest spec phone on the block but marketing to different segments, even if it provides an improved experience, will be a challenge.

iOS Morphing Into a Desktop OS?

During the Apple WWDC, I was really struck at just how many features were added into iOS 5 and just how few new features had been added to Lion. Don’t get me wrong here, I like Lion a lot but after using many of the 250 new features, few altered how or what someone can do with a computer or already to with a tablet. The one exception was AirDrop, which makes peer-to-peer sharing easier. Also, many of the iOS features seemed like desktop features, and the new Lion features appeared to make it look more like iOS features. Let’s take a look.

New Desktop-Like Features in iOS 5

Tabbed Browsing: I remember some apologists explaining away the lack of tabbed browsing with the iPad 1. Now Safari has tabs…. on its 9.7″ display.
Basic Photo Editing: No longer an add-on app like my favorite, Photogene, photo enhancements are available right inside the Photos app. Users can use auto-enhance, remove red eye and even crop photos.
Reading List: Previously available on the Mac, the iOS Safari browser has the Reading list, a place to save articles you wish to read later.
Mail Features: Now users can edit email text, add or delete email folders, and even search all the email text, not just the subject line for topics. All of this in the new Mail.
Calendar Features: Like on Lion, users can drag time bars to set meeting time, can view attachments inside the calendar app and even share calendars.
Mirroring: Via a cable to wirelessly through an Apple TV 2, see on a monitor or TV exactly what is on the iPad 2 or iPhone 4s.
Improved Task Switching: With new “multitasking” gestures, users no longer need to click the home button to return to the home screen or switch between apps. They use a four-finger left-to-right gesture to switch tasks and what I call the “claw” to go to the home screen.

New iOS-Like Features in Lion

New Gestures: Every iOS user is familiar with finger scrolling, tap to zoom, pinch to zoom and swipe to navigate. Now this is available on a Lion Mac.

Full Screen Apps: By design, every iOS is full screen. Now Lion has this capability.
App Store: Required since the first iPhone, now ships with Lion.
Launchpad: This is Lion’s fancy name for iOSs Home Screen. A bunch of app icons.
Mail Improvements: Yes, even desktop Mail is getting more like iOS. In this case, adding full height message panes.

So What? Why Should we Care?

So what does this mean, if anything? It is too early to tell, but it could signal a few alternative scenarios:

Unity of UI? By uniting many of the UI elements across phone, tablet and computer, quite possibly it could make switching between iPhone, iPad and Mac easier. Also, as advanced HCI techniques like voice and air gesture emerge, do input techniques get even closer? Can one metaphor work across three different sized devices?
Easier Switch to Mac from Windows? The logic here says, even if you were brought up on a Windows PC, if you can use an iPhone or iPad, you can use a Mac.
Modularity? I’ve always believed that a modular approach could work well in certain regions and consumer segments, but only if the OS and apps morphed with it. For example, a tablet with a desktop metaphor makes no more sense that a desktop with a tablet metaphor. What if they could morph based on the state but keep some unifying elements? For instance, my tablet is a tablet when it’s not docked. When docked it acts more like you would expect with keyboard and mouse. They two experiences would be unified visually and with gestures so that they didn’t look like two different planets, but two different neighborhoods in the same city.
Desktop OS Dead or Changing Dramatically? What is a desktop OS now? If a desktop OS is a slow-booting, energy-consuming, keyboard-mouse only, complex system, then Microsoft is killing it with Windows 8 next year anyways, so no impact.
Simplicity Dead? If phone and tablet OSs are becoming more like desktop OSs, is that good for simplicity? Or are desktop operating systems getting more like phone and tablet operating systems? How do you mask the complexity and still be able to do a lot?

Where We Go From Here

We will all get a front row seat next year to see how users react to one interface on three platforms. Windows 8 will test this next year and Metro UI will be on phones, tablets and PCs. The only caveat here is the Windows 8 desktop app for traditional desktop which will server as a release valve for angst and a bridge to the future. Whatever the future holds, it will be interesting.

“PC Free” in iOS 5 Doesn’t Mean “Free from PCs” (or Macs)

There’s a new feature in iOS 5 that’s called “PC Free”. While the definition is very specific, it conjures up a lot of images I would guess, specifically getting rid of the PC and Mac. So exactly what parts of the PC and Mac is it removing?

“PC Free” is about removing the PC for a few tasks that are frankly awful parts of the iOS experience and primarily administrative. Here is how it’s described on the iOS 5 landing page:

“Independence for all iOS devices. With iOS 5, you no longer need a computer to own an iPad, iPhone, or iPod touch. Activate and set up your device wirelessly, right out of the box. Download free iOS software updates directly on your device. Do more with your apps — like editing your photos or adding new email folders — on your device, without the need for a Mac or PC. And back up and restore your device automatically using iCloud”.

It sounds promising, the promise of getting rid of that nasty horrible PC or Mac. :-). Can you really dump your Mac or Windows PC?

I asked a few people in my family and at work what they liked doing on their PC and didn’t do on their tablet. Here’s why they said they couldn’t ditch their PC or Mac to (UPDATED):

Text chat with someone on Google Chat at the same time as you are looking at FaceBook.
Quickly create a somewhat complex spreadsheet or presentation. You really need a mouse to do this productively and iOS doesn’t support mice with Keynote or Numbers.
Download a file from multiple web sites in the background as you do something in the foreground. There are a few exceptions with some apps, but certainly cannot be done in the iOS browser.
Compress a big file and email it. Zipping or Rarring a file, attaching it, then emailing it.
Watch 1080p video. iPad has “768P” display for lack of a better term. Yes, a user can watch 1080P on the iPad 2 on an extra display like an HDTV.
Importing HD video into the iPad that wasn’t taken on an iPhone or another iPad. I am not aware of HD source video that’s shot to iOS specs. I’ve had to reconvert gobs of videos on my PC to play on the iPhone or iPad.
Storing all your pictures. I am talking the multiple gigabytes of years and years of pictures. Alternatively you can rent iCloud space.
Store your entire music collection beyond iPads storage.
Store lots of personal videos.
“Perfect” personal video you’ve downloaded or shot with a camcorder that’s shaky, dark, etc. Things that software like VReveal can do.
Face tagging. You’ll need iPhoto, Picasa, or Windows Live Photo Gallery for this.
Display different content on one display and different display on another. There are a few exceptions, very few.
Any web site that uses Flash for navigation, like my local Mexican restaurant.
Print. I know, iOS says it can print. Have you gotten it to reliably print? I didn’t think so. You think people don’t need printers anymore? Tell my teenagers science and English teacher that.

OK, so you get the point here. PC Free means you don’t need a PC to do some very basic and fundamental things. If you do need to do something the very basics, you will still need a PC or Mac.

iCloud is Awesome Yet Incomplete

After release to developers at Apple’s WWDC, the Apple iCloud is available to all consumers today with access to iOS 5 and updated iTunes. In many ways, it is incredible that millions will have access to the consumer power of the cloud. It’s very integrated into the experience, but then again, it’s not as complete or comprehensive when compared to the best-in-breed cloud apps and services available today. Will that make a difference in consumer acceptance? Let’s see.

What Makes a Great Cloud Experience?

A few applications define by example what a great cloud app or service can provide. To a consumer, this will change over time and will also be dependent of their comfort and knowledge. Some sites that are ahead of the cloud service game are Evernote, Amazon Kindle, and Netflix. What makes these great examples of consumer cloud offer? While very different in terms of usage, they share similar variables that in aggregate make them awesome:

Cross Platform: Windows, OSX, iOS, Android and the web. Kindle and Netlix are even available on special-purpose devices like the Kindle and Roku. Consumers can buy into the service and not worry about the platform going away.
Continuous Computing: Continuous computing means a few different things. On content consumption, the next device picks up exactly where the last device left off. On Netflix, if I am halfway through a movie on my iPad I can pickup at the same spot on my Roku. When I pick up another Kindle device, it asks me whether I want to go to the latest bookmark.
Sync: While a step back from continuous computing, it does assure that the same files are on the same system. On Evernote, every change I make is in synch when I open up the next device.
Continuous Improvement: Monthly and even weekly updates to add features and functionality.
Compatible and Data Integrity: Even with all these updates, the data keeps its integrity. If the service has a question about which version is the master, it asks me. Evernote will tell me that I have a duplicate entry and lets me pick the version or content I want.

iCloud: Cross Platform

As we all know, Apple by design works in its own “walled garden” but that doesn’t mean its completely closed off. You cannot get iCloud-enabled apps like Pages, Numbers, Keynote or iBooks for Windows or Android. Even worse, you cannot get to your photos and PhotoStream on any mobile device other than iOS. To be fair, users can get access to Photo Stream on a Windows PC , but users should at least be allowed access to their own photos over the web if they want. Users can access iWork compatible documents on all “modern” browsers by going to iCloud.com and downloading files. Windows users then need to drag and drop the updated file inside the web-based iCloud.com to update the file. – Grade D

iCloud: Sync

iCloud will automatically “sync” photos (Photo Stream), purchased music and TV shows (iTunes), apps, letters (Pages), spreadsheets (Numbers), and presentations (Keynote), Reading Lists and Bookmarks (Safari), reminders (Reminders), calendar (Calendar), email (Mail), notes (Notes), and contacts (Contacts).

There are some major exceptions. iWork documents will not auto sync with the Windows “Documents” folder, as I think users would expect. Sugarsync and Drobbox will automatically sync documents with Windows and any other file type with Windows. Also, personal videos and commercial movies do not sync on any iCloud platform which I don’t fully understand. Maybe its a concern with storage on iOS devices or storage and throughput in the iCloud. – Grade B

iCloud: Continuous Computing

Within iOS phones and tablets, users can start right where they left off for TV shows (Videos) , games (Games Center) and book bookmarks (iBooks). These are real awesome capabilities especially for those where it’s hard to know where you left off.

iCloud will not save the “state” for playing music (Music), playing movies (Videos), or web pages (Safari). Add the PC and Mac into the continuous computing arena and iCloud experience starts to degrade for most all use cases for a variety of reasons. iOS games don’t run or sync on a Mac or PC and on Windows platforms iWork isn’t available. Consumers over time will expect continuous computing on every usage model on every platform, the way Evernote does it today. – Grade C

iCloud: Continuous Improvement

I cannot definitively answer this question as it will emerge over time, but I must extrapolate from what I have seen from previous drops of Apple software. Apple software app drops, with iOS in particular, have been consistent, very often, and very solid code. – Grade A

iCloud: Compatible and Data Integrity

So far so good, even on difficult to manage applications like word processing, spreadsheets, and presentations. I make a one line change to a document without going back to “Documents” inside iOS and web Pages, the one line changed on every other system. – Grade A

What, not Straight A’s and Does it Matter?

Apple has never needed to achieve a 4.0 in everything to be successful. Getting all A’s in the core segment of users and building useful solutions that just work has been the Apple hallmark. The first iPhone proved this and the iPhone 4s will prove this again as everyone else offers 4G but Apple doesn’t have to. A good fallback to Continuous Computing in good Sync, and I believe that as long as Apple still allows other services with better cloud capabilities into their walled garden, it won’t be an issue now. Over time, I believe Apple will fill in the gaps in iCloud and that have fully thought through where they could add the most value and that’s what they hit first. Your move, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.

Android Is at A Critical Junction

I believe that the next six month’s will be the defining point in the future for Google’s Android platform. Whether this future is bright or gloomy will depend on the next six month’s.

It seems right now like Android is riding the big wave reaping in success left and right. The reality is however that there is truth to the Android success but there are also walls still standing in the way.

The report from Nielsen relased yesterday that I opined on shows the meteoric rise of Android in such a short time to garner 39% of US smart phone OS market share. This is truly remarkable success in such a short time. However the question that we have to investigate is how defendable Android is as a platform or is it vulberable at a fundamental level.

If we conclude that Google plays their cards right and builds the right “moats” around the Android castle then it is strong at a fundamental level. However if we conclude that their “moats” are not that strong or deep then it could be vulnerable at a fundamental level. If the former is true Android remains a viable force in the market. If the later is true Android could encounter market volatility and market share could sweep back and forth.

Google’s Hardware Partners
At this stage of the game Google depends on hardware partners to develop devices that take advantage of their software and services. This is a strength as long as your hardware partners stay commited and loyal to you.

There are challenges however with hardware partners. First off there are other companies competing for their business. In the case of smart phones and tablets, Microsoft is Android’s competition. If HP ever wised up and licensed Web OS then there would be three very good options for hardware partners to build products upon.

Android is still the obvoius choice for OEM’s looking to bring a smart phone or tablet to market. Consumers understand the value proposition and there is a large enough app ecosystem in their market place to appease the market.

The question is six month’s or even one year from now will Android still be the obvious choice? I know many people will quickly say yes but I still have concerns. One major reason is the now over 50 law suits facing Android in some capacity. Right now Android is free for most OEM’s to take and implement. However if some of the key lawsuits go against Google we could see license fees from between 15-30 dollars depending on the OEM.

If this happens Android is no longer free. I wonder if that happens whether manufacturers would re-consider their commitement to Android.

App Store Economics
Now you may argue that no other licensable or free platform has the developer ecosystem that Android does. This of course is true but again continuing to develop and maintain that ecosystem will be key.

App developers want to get paid. And as BlueStacks CEO Rosen Sharma pointed out in his column on “How the App Store Money Flows;” there are still issues facing the economics of the Android market that many developers we talk to do not want to deal with. Believe it or not among the larger app developers and as well as some of the more savvy ones, there is heavy consideration still for Windows Phone and for WebOS.

Google must continue to develop a robust economic system that works for everyone who wants to write software for the Android platform. If developers see no economic growth or ROI of their allocation of precious resources to Android they will go elsewhere.

There is a lot I like about Android and I want to see it continue to develop and flourish. Google however will have to navigate and maneuver the waters of the next 6-12 month’s extremely strategically in order to preserve the moats around their castle. Android @Home for example has a great deal of potential I believe and could add real value to the Android platform and ecosystem if done right. Chrome OS is another strength that can be leveraged and assets can be shared across Chrome OS and Android.

As Tim pointed out this morning Amazon could come in and change the game. There are a lot of un-answered questions around Amazon’s tablet strategy from pricing model, to proprietary app development etc, but so long as Android is the underlying platform i’m assuming Google will benefit still in some way.

Android is still behind in tablets and this is another weakness that needs to be addressed. Tablet sales of Honeycomb devices have been less than lackluster. If the Android Honeycomb activation dashboard is any indicator there are between 1.2 and 1.5 million Honeycomb tablets in consumers hands. Motorola released that the XOOM sold 440,000 units; we are yet to see Samsung’s Galaxy Tab sales, Acer’s Iconia sales and Asus Transformer sales.

What we need is a truly break out Android tablet that can excite the mass market. From what I know is possible with hardware and from what I am seeing from the semiconductor companies I know it is possible, i’m just not sure when or who will deliver it to the market.

We will have to wait and see but I have to say I am extremely excited about the next 12 month’s.

The Need for Smarter Mobile Notifications

Push notifications on our smart phones and tablets are shaping up to be a central part of our experiences with those devices. The concept itself has many benefits, particularly where it lets us get information quickly and choose how to respond to that information. I have however recently had an experience with a notification that not only frustrated me but in turn forced me to conclude that we need smarter notifications.

The experience was several weeks back and it was with the CNN app. Tennis is among many of the sports I enjoy watching on TV. I especially like the major tournaments where 3 out of 4 are held in other parts of the world. The most recent major tournament was Wimbledon held in England. I watched many of the big match’s leading up to the championship between Rafael Nadal and Novak Jokovic.

Because of the time zone difference between the US and England the time for the championship match was on a Sunday morning. We had family things to do that morning so I set my DVR to record the finale. Perhaps you know where this story is going. Later that morning as we are driving around and I heard my phone alert me of a notification. Responding quickly to nearly every sound my phone makes, I quickly pulled it out to see a message from CNN saying Novak Jokovic had defeated Nadal and won Wimbledon.

Given that I was recording this match I would have loved to watch it without knowing the outcome. However the CNN app gives me no options to tell it not to send me any alerts related to sports or in even more detail which sports. Therefore the outcome was spoiled for me entirely and thus frustrating.

Perhaps deeper personalization of our phones would give apps the information necessary to know more about us and craft notifications that way. Or perhaps some level of context awareness could be used to dictate which notifications I receive and when.

Notifications are needed but they should also be smarter. However we solve this problem there needs to be a way for us to tell our smart devices which bits information we would like to be notified of and which ones we don’t need to be bothered with. This level of app personalization needs to be a key part of how we think about software in the future.

The Asus PadFone is a Glimpse of the Future

As a part of my work as an industry analyst I do a great deal of thinking about the future. Many of the projects we get pulled into and asked to add analysis on are related to the distant not the near future. This happens to be one of the things I love most about my job, thinking about the future and imaging what the world of technology will be like 5 years out.

Pat Moorhead wrote an article yesterday highlighting Why Convertible PC’s Are About To Get Very Popular. I agree these product designs have a place in the market and we will likely see a good deal of hardware experimentation through 2013. I however think another product idea may have much longer staying power.

Without going into too much detail on things I can’t go into much detail on, I want to use the Asus PadFone as an example of a future I think is highly possible. This future is one where the smart phone is the center of our personal connected ecosystem and in essence becomes the brains that power all the other screens in our lives.

We talk a great deal about the “smart screens” which will invade consumers lives and homes. Although it certainly looks like we are heading in this direction, I sometimes ask: “if the smartest screen is in our pocket why couldn’t that device power the others.” Thus eliminating the need to have a high performance CPU in all my screens.

The Asus PadFone is an example of this concept. In Asus’ solution the smart phone is the most important device in the ecosystem because it is the device with the brains. The smart phone has the CPU, the OS and the software. In the PadFone solution the smart phone slips into the tablet thus giving you a two in one solution.

The Motorola Atrix 4G employs a similar idea where the Atrix can be docked with a laptop shell. The laptop shell simply has a battery and a screen and the Atrix provides the rest of the intelligence needed to have a full laptop.

Both of these designs highlight something that I think gives us a glimpse of how our future connected gadgetry may come together. The biggest indicator for this future reality is the trajectory every major semiconductor company is heading in. Namely very small multi-CPU cores performing at very low power consumption levels.

We can envision a future where we could have an eight core processor in our mobile phones. An eight core mobile chipset would be more than adequate to power every potential smart screen we can dream up. In this model you would simply dock your phone into every screen size possible in order to make every screen you own “smart.” Docking your phone to your TV would create a “smart TV” for example. Docking your phone with you car would create a “smart car.” You could also purchase laptop docks, desktop docks, tablet docks, smart mirror docks, smart refrigerator docks, etc.

What’s also interesting about this model is that your phone can also power devices that don’t have screens. In this scenario you would be able to use your smart phone to interact with all your appliances without screens like washer, dryer, coffee pot, and others. We call these specific interactions “micro-experiences” where you use your phone to have experiences with non-screen appliances.

It is obviously way to early to conclude when or if the market could adopt a solution like this. None-the-less it is an interesting future to think about.

Should the Media be Proclaiming RIM’s Death?

Over the past few weeks i’ve been reading a number of articles from the big media outlets all proclaiming the death of RIM. Most of these articles are pretty grim and their headlines say it all. I have nothing against a good or controversial headline its more the content of the article i’m interested in. What i’ve noticed is the content of these articles being fairly negative on RIM don’t really offer much helpful insight for either the consumer or RIM itself.

Two articles in particular this week are examples of what I mean.

BGR: Inside RIM: An exclusive look at the rise and fall of the company that made smartphones smart

All Things D: Bring Out Your Dead: Is Research In Motion The Next DEC?

So what I am wondering is what the role of the media should be in a situation like this where a company is struggling. Given that the media is extremely influential and actually does affect the mind share of consumers, it seems that if all the outlets go around saying RIM is dead, consumers will believe it and write them off no matter how good any future products may be.

Perhaps it would be more helpful if these articles contained a balance and point out what has gone wrong but offer helpful suggestions on what RIM could do to remain competitive. The result would be that the market may not write RIM off entirely and instead look to see if RIM responds to the helpful insights to the media, using the media to their advantage, and still have a shot at competing.

Too often it seems like the media is powerful enough to claim a companies death, thus affecting the mind share of investors and consumers and in return create a self fulfilling prophecy where the company actually does disappear.

Now i’m not saying the media does not always write negatively. In fact a number of good articles have come out that do offer helpful suggestions. I simply believe they are more rare than the norm. A few examples:

In BGR’s Open letter to BlackBerry bosses: Senior RIM exec tells all as company crumbles around him the letter itself contains helpful insights and suggestions.

Even though we are analysts not journalists Tim and I have also covered the topic.

Tim Bajarin wrote one for PC Magazine called What RIM Needs To Do To Survive that offered a number of suggestions for RIM.

And in my article last week for the tech section of Time.com I wrote about The Tragic Decline of BlackBerry and offer some insights as well on how to turn it around.

The bottom line is I would like to see more competition and consumer choice than less. I know negative news drives traffic but what i’m hoping is that there is a balance. I’d love to see the media also use its influence to do all they can to help struggling companies better compete going forward.

Again it comes back to my original question. What should the role of the media be when a company is down?

A Sure Sign of Real Trouble at RIM

The senior Research In Motion executive who chose to vent his (or her) frustration in a open letter to Boy Genius Report may not have chosen the most graceful way to make those views known. But the writer may well have exhausted other means of communications. Certainly, RIM’s response suggests strongly that the increasingly troubled company’s leadership still isn’t hearing what it needs to hear.

The fact is that the open letter was an accurate analysis of the challenges facing RIM and was full of generally very good advice. The response is dismissive and described RIM’s current situation as a time when it is “necessary for the company to streamline its operations in order to allow it to grow its business profitably while pursuing newer strategic opportunities” after “a period of hyper growth.”

Streamlining and, above all, focus is exactly what the letter writer argued for. Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie should give it another read with more open minds.

The Many Screens of Our Digital Lives

A few months back, my friend Harry MaCraken of Technoligizer wrote a piece entitled “Hey, they are all just screens.” in which he echoed something I have been writing about for the last five years in many of my PC Mag columns. It is a good read and I suggest you take alook at what Harry says here, but in essence, both of us are identifying a rather important trend that will drive the next generation of personal computing.

If you look closely at our smartphones, tablets, laptops and even Internet connected TV’s, they represent different screens that become gateways to local as well as cloud based apps, content and information. Below is a slide I use to actually explain this.( In it you see out on the periphery are a whole host of “screens” like the normal one’s we have today in our smartphones, Internet TV’s, tablets and PC’s as well as new ones that are emerging such as screens in our cars, refrigerators and even in our appliances.

All of these screens are just gateways to the next layer, which I list as apps and services. And sitting at the center is the cloud, which hosts these apps and services. From an industry standpoint this slide really represents the topology of the way we should view this trend. Each screen now has intelligence thanks to an OS, smart UI and connections to apps, services and eventually the cloud. But if you look long and hard at this diagram, you can easily see that we are in the early stages of understanding that these devices are just “screens” and that we are in dire need of creating next generation standards that let all of these screens work together and interact with each other seamlessly.

Today, each has their own OS and UI and in some cases proprietary architectures that helps them differentiate. While this heterogeneous approach is admirable, the reality is that we ultimately need to create a level of commonality across all devices in order for all of these screens to deliver on their stated promise of giving us the applications, content and services we want and need on demand.

While apps tied to individual operating systems work today, as bandwidth increases and devices become more powerful and battery efficiency goes up, the common denominator between all of these devices needs to be the Web browser and more specifically, these same apps delivered in Web App forms via HTML 5 and future versions of HTML standards that deliver cross device functionality.

This needs to be the goal of those working on devices, standards and cloud based services and infrastructure. If they can grasp this idea that all of these devices just represent screens that tap into these services and the cloud and that ultimately all of these screens need to work together and talk to each other seamlessly, the faster we will see the promise of the Internet and the cloud fulfilled.

Tech Patent Fights: What’s at Stake

Recent days have been filled with news about patent disputes. Lodsys, a company that claims fundamental patents on in-application purchases, fired off another batch of suits against alleged infringers. Apple and Nokia resolved a complex legal fight over smartphone patents. Dolby Labs sued Research In Motion. And the U.S. Supreme Court told Microsoft to pay up on a judgment that technology in Office infringed on a patent held by tiny i4i LP. Continue reading Tech Patent Fights: What’s at Stake

2012: A Year of Innovation?

One of the things I look at in order to get an idea of what the next years worth of innovations will bring is the semiconductor industry. Given what I am seeing from the various ARM vendors like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Marvell and TI as well as from Intel and AMD, I am encouraged.

The primary industry that stands to gain from new semiconductor innovations is the mobile industry. Namely the hot category of tablets and smart phones. That is not to say that the PC will be left out, for example Intel brought attention to the concept of “Ultra-Books” at this years Computex.
Continue reading 2012: A Year of Innovation?

Microsoft Has A Chance to Compete With Windows 8

It’s way to early to count Microsoft out. Just look at history. Microsoft has a fighting chance with Windows 8 because they are Microsoft. We can argue and debate whether they understand the consumer. Or whether the market has passed them or not but the simple truth is they are still a force in the computing landscape.
Continue reading Microsoft Has A Chance to Compete With Windows 8