Category: The Daily Techpinion

Though it’s a year shy of the big decade marker, 2019 looks to be one of the most exciting and most important years for the tech industry in some time. Thanks to the upcoming launch of some critical new technologies, including 5G and foldable displays, as well as critical enhancements in on-device AI, personal robotics, and other exciting areas, there’s a palpable sense of expectation for the new year that we haven’t felt for a while.

Plus, 2018 ended up being a pretty tough year for several big tech companies, so there are also a lot of folks who want to shake the old year off and dive headfirst into an exciting future. With that spirit in mind, here’s my take on some of what I expect to be the biggest trends and most important developments in 2019.

Prediction 1: Foldable Phones Will Outsell 5G Phones
At this point, everyone knows that 2019 will see the “official” debut of two very exciting technological developments in the mobile world: foldable displays and smartphones equipped with 5G modems. Several vendors and carriers have already announced these devices, so now it’s just a question of when and how many.
Not everyone realizes, however, that the two technologies won’t necessarily come hand-in-hand this year: we will see 5G-enabled phones and we will see smartphones with foldable displays. As of yet, it’s not clear that we’ll see devices that incorporate both capabilities in calendar year 2019. Eventually, of course, we will, but the challenges in bringing each of these cutting-edge technologies to the mass market suggest that some devices will include one or the other. (To be clear, however, the vast majority of smartphones sold in 2019 will have neither an integrated 5G modem nor a foldable display—high prices for both technologies will limit their impact this year.)

In the near-term, I’m predicting that foldable display-based phones will be the winner over 5G-equipped phones, because the impact that these bendable screens will have on device usability and form factor are so compelling that I believe consumers will be willing to forgo the potential 5G speed boost. Plus, given concerns about pricing for 5G data plans, limited initial 5G coverage, and the confusing (and, frankly, misleading) claims being made by some US carriers about their “versions” of 5G, I believe consumers will limit their adoption of 5G until more of these issues become clear. Foldable phones on the other hand—while likely to be expensive—will offer a very clear value benefit that I believe consumers will find even more compelling.

Prediction 2: Game Streaming Services Go Mainstream
In a year when there’s going to be a great deal of attention placed on new entrants to the video streaming market (Apple, Disney, Time Warner, etc.), the surprise breakout winner in cloud-based entertainment in 2019 could actually be game streaming services, such as Microsoft’s Project xCloud (based on its Xbox gaming platform) and other possible entrants. The idea with game streaming is to enable people to play top-tier games across a wide range of both older and newer PCs, smartphones, and other devices. Given the tremendous growth in PC and mobile gaming, along with the rise in popularity of eSports, the consumer market is primed for a service (or two) that would allow gamers to play popular high-quality gaming titles across a wide range of different device types and platforms.

Of course, game streaming isn’t a new concept, and there have been several failed attempts in the past. The challenge is delivering a timely, engaging experience in the often-unpredictable world of cloud-driven connectivity. It’s an extraordinarily difficult technical task that requires lag-free responsiveness and high-quality visuals packaged together in an easy-to-use service that consumers would be willing to pay for.

Thankfully, a number of important technological advancements are coming together to make this now possible, including improvements in overall connectivity via WiFi (such as with WiFi6) and wide area cellular networks (and 5G should improve things even more). In addition, there’s been widespread adoption and optimization of GPUs in cloud-based servers. Most importantly, however, are software advancements that can enable technologies like split or collaborative rendering (where some work is done on the cloud and some on the local device), as well as AI-based predictions of actions that need to be taken or content that needs to be preloaded. Collectively, these and other related technologies seem poised to enable a compelling set of gaming services that could drive impressive levels of revenue for the companies that can successfully deploy them.

It’s also important to add that although strong growth in game streaming services that are less hardware dependent may imply a negative impact on gaming-specific PCs, GPUs and other game-focused hardware (because people would be able to use older, less powerful devices to run modern games); in fact, the opposite is likely to be true. Game streaming services will likely expose an even wider audience to the most compelling games and that, in turn, will likely inspire more people to purchase gaming-optimized PCs, smartphones, and other devices. The gaming service will give them the opportunity to play (or continue playing) those games in situations or locations where they don’t have access to their primary gaming devices.

Prediction 3: Multi-Cloud Becomes the Standard in Enterprise Computing
The early days of cloud computing in the enterprise featured prediction after prediction of a winner between public cloud vs. private cloud and even of specific cloud platforms within those environments. As we enter 2019, it’s becoming abundantly clear that all those arguments were wrong headed and that, in fact, everyone won and everyone lost at the same time. After all, which of those early prognosticators would have ever guessed that in 2018, Amazon would offer a version of Amazon Web Services (called AWS Outpost) that a company could run on Amazon-branded hardware in the company’s own data center/private cloud?

It turns out that, as with many modern technology developments, there’s no single cloud computing solution that works for everybody. Public, private, and hybrid combinations all have their place, and within each of those groups, different platform options all have a role. Yes, Amazon currently leads overall cloud computing, but depending on the type of workload or other requirements, Microsoft’s Azure, Google’s GCP (Google Cloud Platform), or IBM, Oracle, or SAP cloud offerings might all make sense.

The real winner is the cloud computing model, regardless of where or by whom it’s being hosted. Not only has cloud computing changed expectations about performance, reliability, and security, the DevOps software development environment it inspired and the container-focused application architecture it enabled have radically reshaped how software is written, updated, and deployed. That’s why you see companies shifting their focus away from the public infrastructure-based aspects of cloud computing and towards the flexible software environments it enables. This, in turn, is why companies have recognized that leveraging multiple cloud types and cloud vendors isn’t a weakness or disjointed strategy, but actually a strength that can be leveraged for future endeavors. With cloud platform vendors expected to work towards more interoperability (and transportability) of workloads across different platforms in 2019, it’s very clear that the multi-cloud world is here to stay.

Prediction 4: On-Device AI Will Start to Shift the Conversation About Data Privacy
One of the least understood aspects of using tech-based devices, mobile applications, and other cloud-based services is how much of our private, personal data is being shared in the process—often without our even knowing it. Over the past year, however, we’ve all started to become painfully aware of how big (and far-reaching) the problem of data privacy is. As a result, there’s been an enormous spotlight placed on data handling practices employed by tech companies.

At the same time, expectations about technology’s ability to personalize these apps and services to meet our specific interests, location, and context have also continued to grow. People want and expect technology to be “smarter” about them, because it makes the process of using these devices and services faster, more efficient, and more compelling.

The dilemma, of course, is that to enable this customization requires the use of and access to some level of personal data, usage patterns, etc. Up until now, that has typically meant that most any action you take or information you share has been uploaded to some type of cloud-based service, compiled and compared to data from other people, and then used to generate some kind of response that’s sent back down to you. In theory, this gives you the kind of customized and personalized experience you want, but at the cost of your data being shared with a whole host of different companies.

Starting in 2019, more of the data analysis work could start being done directly on devices, without the need to share all of it externally, thanks to the AI-based software and hardware capabilities becoming available on our personal devices. Specifically, the idea of doing on-device AI inferencing (and even some basic on-device training) is now becoming a practical reality thanks to work by semiconductor-related companies like Qualcomm, Arm, Intel, Apple, and many others.

What this means is that—if app and cloud service providers enable it (and that’s a big if)—you could start getting the same level of customization and personalization you’ve become accustomed to, but without having to share your data with the cloud. Of course, it isn’t likely that everyone on the web is going to start doing this all at once (if they do it at all), so inevitably some of your data will still be shared. However, if some of the biggest software and cloud service providers (think Facebook, Google, Twitter, Yelp, etc.) started to enable this, it could start to meaningfully address the legitimate data privacy concerns that have been raised over the last year or so.

Apple, to its credit, started talking about this concept several years back (remember differential privacy?) and already stores things like facial recognition scans and other personally identifiable information only on individuals’ devices. Over the next year, I expect to see many more hardware and component makers take this to the next level by talking not just about their on-device data security features, but also about how onboard AI can enhance privacy. Let’s hope that more software and cloud-service providers enable it as well.

Prediction 5: Tech Industry Regulation in the US Becomes Real
Regardless of whether major social media firms and tech companies enable these onboard AI capabilities or not, it’s clear to me that we’ve reached a point in the US social consciousness that tech companies managing all this personal data need to be regulated. While I’ll be the first to admit that the slow-moving government regulatory process is ill-matched to the rapidly evolving tech industry, that’s still not an excuse for not doing anything. As a result, in 2019, I believe the first government regulations of the tech industry will be put into place, specifically around data privacy and disclosure rules.

It’s clear from the backlash that companies like Facebook have been receiving that many consumers are very concerned with how much data has been collected not only about their online activities, but their location, and many other very specific (and very private) aspects of their lives. Despite the companies’ claims that we gave over most all of this information willingly (thanks to the confusingly worded and never read license agreements), common sense tells us that the vast majority of us did not understand or know how the data was being analyzed and used. Legislators from both parties recognize these concerns, and despite the highly polarized political climate, are likely going to easily agree to some kind of limitations on the type of data that’s collected, how it’s analyzed, and how it’s ultimately used.

Whether the US builds on Europe’s GDPR regulations, the privacy laws instated in California last year, or something entirely different remains to be seen, but now that the value and potential impact of personal data has been made clear, there’s no doubt we will see laws that control the valued commodity that it is.

Prediction 6: Personal Robotics Will Become an Important New Category
The idea of a “sociable” robot—one that people can have relatively natural interactions with—has been the lore of science fiction for decades. From Lost in Space to Star Wars to WallE and beyond, interactive robotic machines have been the stuff of our creative imagination for some time. In 2019, however, I believe we will start to see more practical implementations of personal robotics devices from a number of major tech vendors.

Amazon, for example, is widely rumored to be working on some type of personal assistant-based robot leveraging their Alexa voice-based digital assistant technology. Exactly what form and what sort of capabilities the device might take are unclear, but some type of mobile (as in, able to move, not small and lightweight!) visual smart display that also offers mechanical capabilities (lifting, carrying, sweeping, etc.) might make sense.

While a number of companies have tried and failed to bring personal robotics to the mainstream in the recent past, I believe a number of technologies and concepts are coming together to make the potential more viable this year. First, from a purely mechanical perspective, the scarily realistic capabilities now exhibited by companies like Boston Dynamics show how far the movement, motion, and environmental awareness capabilities have advanced in the robotics world. In addition, the increasingly conversational and empathetic AI capabilities now being brought to voice-based digital assistants, such as Alexa and Google Assistant, demonstrate how our exchanges with machines are becoming more natural. Finally, the appeal of products like Sony’s updated Aibo robotic dog also highlight the willingness that people are starting to show towards interacting with machines in new ways.

In addition, robotics-focused hardware and software development platforms, like Nvidia’s latest Jetson AGX Xavier board and Isaac software development kit, key advances in computer vision, as well as the growing ecosystem around the open source ROS (Robot Operating System) all underscore the growing body of work being done to enable both commercial and consumer applications of robots in 2019.

Prediction 7: Cloud-Based Services Will Make Operating Systems Irrelevant
People have been incorrectly predicting the death of operating systems and unique platforms for years (including me back in December of 2015), but this time it’s really (probably!) going to happen. All kidding aside, it’s becoming increasingly clear as we enter 2019 that cloud-based services are rendering the value of proprietary platforms much less relevant for our day-to-day use. Sure, the initial interface of a device and the means for getting access to applications and data are dependent on the unique vagaries of each tech vendor’s platform, but the real work (or real play) of what we do on our devices is becoming increasingly separated from the artificial world of operating system user interfaces.

In both the commercial and consumer realms, it’s now much easier to get access to what it is we want to do, regardless of the underlying platform. On the commercial side, the increasing power of desktop and application virtualization tools from the likes of Citrix and VMWare, as well as moves like Microsoft’s delivering Windows desktops from the cloud all demonstrate how much simpler it is to run critical business applications on virtually any device. Plus, the growth of private (on-premise), hybrid, and public cloud environments is driving the creation of platform-independent applications that rely on nothing more than a browser to function. Toss in Microsoft’s decision to leverage the open-source Chromium browser rendering engine for its next version of its Edge browser, and it’s clear we’re rapidly moving to a world in which the cloud finally and truly is the platform.

On the consumer side, the rapid growth of platform-independent streaming services is also promoting the disappearance (or at least sublimation) of proprietary operating systems. From Netflix to Spotify to even the game streaming services mentioned in Prediction 2, successful cloud-based services are building most all of their capabilities and intelligence into the cloud and relying less and less on OS-specific apps. In fact, it will be very interesting to see how open and platform agnostic Apple makes its new video streaming service. If they make it too focused on Apple OS-based device users only, they risk having a very small impact (even with their large and well-heeled installed base), particularly given the strength of the competition.

Crossover work and consumer products like Office 365 are also shedding any meaningful ties to specific operating systems and instead are focused on delivering a consistent experience across different operating systems, screen sizes, and device types.

The concept of abstraction goes well beyond the OS level. New software being developed to leverage the wide range of different AI-specific accelerators from vendors like Qualcomm, Intel, and Arm (AI cores in their case) is being written at a high-enough level to allow them to work across a very heterogeneous computing environment. While this might have a modest impact on full performance potential, the flexibility and broad support that this approach enables is well worth it. In fact, it’s generally true that the more heterogeneous the computing environment grows, the less important operating systems and proprietary platforms become. In 2019, it’s going to be a very heterogenous computing world, hence my belief that the time for this prediction has finally come.

Competition really is a great thing, and if you ever really needed a reminder of how and why, look no further than the recently rejuvenated, albeit humbled, semiconductor behemoth based in Santa Clara, CA.

After an extremely difficult 2018 that featured both major ongoing delays in producing new 10 nm chips and the unceremonious exit of its CEO, Intel is also facing the toughest competitive environment it’s seen in some time. Not only is a resurgent AMD becoming a serious threat in both the PC and server markets, but Nvidia has managed to snag most of the focus in the attention-grabbing AI market, and new offerings from Qualcomm show that its computing capabilities are much stronger than many may have realized.

As a result of all these challenges, Intel has been forced to rethink a number of its previous investments, reorganize its increasingly scattered divisions, and put together a strategy that could both directly address the new competitive environment and leverage many of the unique capabilities that make Intel what it still is today (lest we forget): the largest semiconductor company in the world.

Thankfully, the company recently laid out its new vision through a series of announcements about new technology directions and strategy delivered at an industry analyst summit and tech press event. Specifically, on the technology side, the company discussed a new variation on the “chiplet” concept that leverages a new 3D chip-stacking technology codenamed Foveros. Instead of trying to continue along the traditional Moore’s Law path of increasing transistor density horizontally via large and complicated monolithic chips created on a single process technology node, Foveros technology represents an important pivot towards vertical density. Practically speaking, what this means is that the company can combine several different chips created at different process sizes, while still increasing overall transistor density, in a single chip package. It’s a fascinating development that highlights how Intel is still able to maintain its long history of manufacturing advances, despite the challenges it faced in bringing 10 nm chips to market.

The first real-world example of Foveros’ ability to integrate heterogenous pieces together is the newly announced Sunny Cove architecture, expected to ship in 2019, which will combine both 10 nm Core “big” CPUs with several “little” Atom CPUs, into a new hybrid x86 architecture (which, yes, sounds conceptually very similar to the “big.Little” architecture designs that Arm and its customers have been talking about for years). The idea is to enable much more power-friendly x86 designs—it will be interesting to see what kinds of devices this new platform will enable.

At the strategic level, the company highlighted a new approach built on six pillars—Process, Architecture, Memory, Interconnect, Security and Software—that manages to tie together a number of different resources that Intel owns into a nicely unified, and powerful, vision of the future of computing. The process advances are built not just on Foveros, but the simultaneous work its been doing for both 7nm and 5nm, both of which are expected to benefit from the hard-won lessons the company learned on 10nm. Throw in the announcements about plans for new fabs and it’s clear the company is focused on moving forward aggressively on the process front.

Architecturally, the company discussed both the wide range of different architectures it’s creating, including CPU (scalar), GPU (vector), AI (matrix) and FPGA (spatial), compute offerings, as well as advancements in each of those areas. Over the years, Intel has amassed an impressive collection of different companies and architectures, but this was the first time it provided a unified vision that tied all the pieces together. The event also saw the first release of a few more details on their upcoming dedicated GPU effort, currently codenamed Xe and scheduled for release in 2020.

On the memory side, the company highlighted its advances in Optane storage and memory products. Intel emphasized new types of memory that break down the barriers between traditional DRAM and storage, and enable the creation of more sophisticated and much faster overall computing system designs. These memory capabilities are a unique and often overlooked advantage Intel offers versus most all of its competition. Given the exploding amounts of data being created and processed, these memory technologies will be critically important for the increasingly large data sets that data center-based components are going to need to have. (The fact that a simpler form of 3D stacking process technology is also used to build many Optane parts certainly doesn’t hurt either.)

The need to provide better and faster connections between various elements is another key capability in building more sophisticated chip and system designs in an increasingly heterogenous computing world. True to form, Intel talked about a wide range of options it offers in this area as well. From 5G modems to silicon photonics to new ultra-high-speed serial connections between chiplet components in stacked 3D designs, Intel has a number of interconnect technologies that it can leverage in future components and devices.

Security, of course, is a key factor for any company today, and, though Intel has faced some big concerns around Spectre, Meltdown, and other related chip architecture flaws, the company recognizes the need to incorporate security capabilities into all of its offerings. In particular, Intel is investing to integrate a multi-prong security story that reaches across the chip level, SOC level, board level, and software level to ensure the safest possible devices.

Finally, one of the most audacious new goals for Intel is a new software strategy built around what they’re temporarily calling One API. The basic concept is to create a layer of software abstraction that would allow programmers to write at this higher level, then smartly take advantage of whatever hardware system capabilities are available in a given system, from hybrid chip architectures to unique memory offerings and more. In theory, this includes the ability to send certain bits of code to one chip type and other chunks to other types while still maintaining most of the raw performance that would be available if programmers wrote straight to the metal. It’s a goal that many people have talked about—and it still remains to be seen if Intel can execute on it—but it would certainly provide a key advantage to Intel in an increasingly heterogeneous computing world.

In addition to these important technology and strategy announcements, it was clear that there was a new attitude within Intel’s executive ranks. In addition to a humbler approach, the company openly talked about being a smaller player in a bigger market. Clearly, the goal was to re-emphasize the fact that the company is now seeing themselves being able to participate in a broader range of opportunities than it traditionally has. There was even a joking reference about bringing back former CEO Andy Grove’s desire for Intel to always be paranoid about the competition—a quality that, frankly, seemed to fade over the last few years.
At roughly 107,000 employees, Intel is a very large organization, and it can often be tough to turn big ships around. It’s clear, however, that there’s a fresh attitude and approach there that certainly makes them appear to be much better prepared for an increasingly diverse computing future. Now, if they could only fill that CEO job….

Sometimes it’s the news behind the news that’s really important. Such is the case with the recent announcement from Microsoft that they plan to start using the open source software-based Chromium project as a basis for future versions of their Edge browser. At a basic level, it’s an important (and surprising) move that seems significant for web developers and those who like to track web standards. For typical end users, though, it seems a bit ho-hum, as it basically involves under-the-hood changes that few people are likely to think much about or even notice.

However, the long-term implications of the move could lead to some profoundly important changes to the kinds of software we use, the types of devices we buy, the chips that power them, and much more.

The primary reason for this is that by adopting Chromium as the rendering engine for Edge, Microsoft should finally be able to unleash the full potential of the platform-independent, web-focused, HTML5-style software vision we were promised nearly a decade ago. If you’ll recall, initial assurances around HTML5 said that it was going to enable software that could run consistently within any compatible browser, regardless of the underlying operating system. For software developers, it would finally deliver on Java’s initial promise of “write once, run anywhere.” In other words, we could finally get to a world where everyone could get access to all the best software, regardless of the devices we use and own, and the ability to move our own data and services across these devices would become simple and seamless.

Alas, as with Java, the grandiose visions of what was meant to be, didn’t come to pass. Instead, HTML5-based applications struggled with performance and compatibility issues across platforms and devices. As a result, the potential nirvana of a seamless mesh of computing capabilities surrounding us never came to be, and we continue to struggle with getting everything we own to work together in a simple, straightforward way.

Of course, some might argue that they prefer the flexibility of choices and unique platform characteristics, despite the challenges of integrating across multiple platforms, application types, etc., and that’s certainly a legitimate point. However, even in the world of consistent software standards, there was never an intention to prevent choice or the ability to customize applications. For example, even though Chromium is also the web rendering engine for Google’s Chrome browser, Microsoft’s plan is to leverage some of the underlying standards and mechanisms in Chromium to create a better, more compatible version of Edge, but not build a clone of Chrome. That may sound subtle, but it’s actually an important point that will allow each of these companies (as well as others who leverage Chromium, such as Amazon) to continue to add their own secret sauce and provide special links to their own services and other offerings.

By moving the massive base of Windows users (as well as Edge browser users on the Mac, Android, and iOS, because Microsoft announced their intentions to build Chromium-powered browsers for all those platforms as well), the company has single-handedly shifted the balance of web and browser-based standards towards Chromium. This means that application developers can now concentrate more of their efforts on this standard and ensure that a wider range of applications will be available—and work in a consistent fashion—across multiple devices and platforms.

There are some concerns that this shifts too much power into the hands of a single standard and, some are worried, to Google itself, since it started the Chromium project. However, Chromium is not the same as Chrome (despite the similar name). It’s an open source-based project that anyone can use and add to. With Microsoft’s new support, they’ve ensured that their army of developers, as well as others who have supported the Microsoft ecosystem, will now support Chromium. This, in turn, will dramatically increase the number of developers working on Chromium and, therefore, improve its quality and capabilities (in theory, at least).

The real-world software implications for this could be profound, especially because Microsoft has promised to embed Chromium support into Windows. What this will do is allow web-based applications access to things like the file system, being able to work offline, touch support, and other core system functions that have previously prevented browser-based apps from truly competing against stand-alone apps. This concept, also known as progressive web apps (PWA), is seen as being critical in redefining how apps are created, distributed, and used.

For consumers, this means the need to worry about OS-specific mobile apps or desktop applications could go away. Developers would have the freedom to write applications that have all the capabilities of a stand-alone app, yet can be run through a browser and, most importantly, can run across virtually any device. Software choices should go up dramatically, and the ability to have multiple applications and services work together—even across platforms and devices—should be significantly easier as well.

For enterprise software developers, this should open the floodgates of cloud-based applications even further. It should also help companies move away from dependencies on legacy applications and early Internet Explorer-based custom enterprise applications. From traditional enterprise software vendors like SAP, Oracle, and IBM through modern cloud-based players like Salesforce, Slack, and Workday, the ability to focus more of their efforts on a single target platform should open up a wealth of innovation and reduce difficult cross-platform testing efforts.

But it’s not just the software world that’s going to be impacted by this decision. Semiconductors and the types of devices that we may start to use could be affected as well. For example, Microsoft is leveraging this shift to Chromium as part of an effort to bring broader software compatibility to Arm-based CPUs, particularly the Windows on Snapdragon offerings from Qualcomm, like the brand-new Snapdragon 8cx. By working on bringing the underlying compatibility of Chromium to Windows-focused Arm64 processors, Microsoft is going to make it significantly easier for software developers to create applications that run on these devices. This would remove the last significant hurdle that has kept these devices from reaching mainstream buyers in the consumer and enterprise world, and it could turn them into serious contenders versus traditional X86-based CPUs from Intel and AMD.

On the device side, this move also opens up the possibility for a wider variety of form factors and for more ambient computing types of services. By essentially enabling a single, consistent target platform that could leverage the essential input characteristics of desktop devices (mice and keyboards), mobile devices (touch), and voice-based interfaces, Microsoft is laying the groundwork for a potentially fascinating computing future. Imagine, for example, a foldable multi-screen device that offers something like a traditional Android front screen, then unfolds to a larger Windows (or Android)-based device that can leverage the exact same applications and data, but with subtle UI enhancements optimized for each environment. Or, think about a variety of different connected smart screens that allow you to easily jump from device to device but still leverage the same applications. The possibilities are endless.

Strategically, the move is a fascinating one for Microsoft. On one hand, it suggests a closer tie to Google, much like the built-in support for Android-based phones did in the latest version of Windows 10. However, it’s specifically being done through open source, and is likely to leverage its recent Github developer resource purchase to make web standards more open and less specifically tied to Google. At the same time, because Apple doesn’t currently support Chromium and is still focused on keeping its developers (and end users) more tightly tied into its proprietary OS, Microsoft is essentially further isolating Apple from key web software standards. In an olive branch move to Apple users, however, Microsoft has said that they will bring the Chromium-powered version of Edge to MacOS and likely iOS, essentially giving Apple users access to this new world of software, but via a Microsoft connection.

In the end, a large number of pieces have to come together in order to make this web-based, platform-free version of the software world come to pass, and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see roadblocks arise along the way. Still, Microsoft’s move to support Chromium could prove to be a watershed moment that quietly, but importantly, sets some key future technology trends into motion.

Sometimes it takes real world frustrations before you can really appreciate the advances that technology can bring. Such is the case with mobile broadband-equipped notebook PCs.

Before diving into the details of why I’m saying this, I have to admit upfront that I’ve been a skeptic of cellular-capable notebooks for a very long time. As a long-time observer of, data collector for, and prognosticator on the PC market, I clearly recall several failed attempts at trying to integrate cellular modems into PCs over the last 15 years or so. From the early days of 3G, and even into the first few years of 4G-capable devices, PC makers have been trying to add cellular connectivity into their devices. However, attach rates in most parts of the world (Western Europe being the sole exception) have been extremely low—typically, in the low single digits.

The primary reasons for this limited success have been cost—both for the modem and cellular services—as well as the ease and ubiquity of WiFi and personal hotspot functions integrated into our smartphones. Together, these factors have put the value of cellular connectivity into question. It’s often hard to justify the additional costs for integrated mobile broadband, especially when the essentially “free” alternatives seem acceptable.

Despite all these concerns, however, we’ve seen a great deal of fresh attention being paid to cellular connected PCs of late. Specifically, the launch of the always connected PC (ACPC) effort by Microsoft, Qualcomm, and several major PC OEMs (HP, Asus, and Lenovo) this time last year brought new attention to the category and started to shift the discussion of PC performance towards connectivity, in addition to traditional CPU-driven metrics. Since that first launch with Snapdragon 835-based devices, we’ve already seen second generation Snapdragon 850-based PCs, such as Lenovo’s Yoga C630, start to ship.

We’ve also seen Intel bring its own modems into the PC market in a big way over the last few months, highlighting the increased connectivity options they enable. In the new HP Spectre Folio leather-wrapped PC, for example, Intel created a multi-chip module that integrates its Amber Lake Y-Series CPU, along with an XMM 7560 Gigabit LTE modem. Conceptually, it’s similar to the chiplet-style design that combined an Intel CPU and AMD Radeon GPU into a single multi-chip module that Dell used in its XPS 15 earlier this year, but integrates a discrete modem instead of the discrete GPU.

Together these efforts, as well as expected advancements, highlight the many key technological enhancements in semiconductor design that are being directed towards connectivity in PCs. Plus, with the launch of 5G-capable modems and 5G-enabled PCs on the very near horizon, it’s clear that we’ll be enjoying even more of these chip design-driven benefits in the future.

Even more importantly, changes in the wireless landscape and our interactions with it are bringing a new sense of pertinence and criticality to our wireless connections. While we have been highly dependent on wireless connections in our PCs for some time, the degree of dependence has now grown to the point where most people really do need (and expect) reliable, high-quality signals all the time.

This point hit home recently after I had boarded a plane but needed to finish a few critical emails before we took off. Unfortunately, the availability and quality of WiFi connections while people are getting seated is dicey at best. But by leveraging the integrated cellular modem in my Spectre Folio review unit, I was able to do so no problem. Similarly, in a long Lyft ride to an airport on another recent trip, I leveraged the modem in the Yoga C630 for similar purposes. Plus, in situations like conferences and other events where WiFi connections are often spotty, having a cellular connectivity alternative can be the difference between having a usable connection and not having one at all.

Admittedly, these are first-world problems and not everybody needs to have reliable connectivity in these types of limited situations. In other words, I don’t think the extra cost of integrated cellular modems makes sense for everyone. But, for people who are on the run a lot, the extra convenience can really make a difference. This is another example of the fact that many of the technological advances that we now see in the PC market are generally more incremental and meant to improve certain situations or use cases. Integrated cellular connections are in line with this kind of thinking as they provide an incremental boost in the ability to find a usable internet connection.

In addition to convenience, the increase of WiFi network-based security risks has raised concerns about using public WiFi networks in certain environments. While not perfect, cellular connections are generally understood to be more secure and much less vulnerable to any kind of network snooping than WiFi, providing more peace of mind for critical or sensitive information.

Of course, little of this would matter if network operators didn’t make pricing plans for cellular data usage on PCs attractive. Thankfully, there have been improvements here as well, but there’s still a long way to go to truly make this part of the connected PC experience friction-free. The expected 2019 launch of 5G-equipped notebooks will likely trigger a fresh round of pricing options for connected PC data plans, so it will be interesting to see what happens then.

Ultimately, while some of the primary concerns around the connected PC remain, it’s also becoming clear that many other issues are starting to paint the technology in a light. Always on, always reliable connections are no longer just a “nice to have,” but a “need to have” for many people, and along with the technology advancements, increased security and lower data plan costs are combining to create an environment where connected PCs finally start to make sense.

Are the robots coming, or are they already here? Fresh off the impressive, successful Mars landing of NASA’s InSight lander robotic spacecraft, it seems appropriate to suggest that robots have already begun to make their presence felt across many aspects of our lives. Not only in space exploration and science, but as we enter into the holiday shopping season, their presence is being felt in industry and commerce as well.

Behind the scenes at factories building many of the products in demand this holiday season, to the warehouses that store and ship them out, robots have been making a significant impact for quite some time. Building on that success, both Nvidia and Amazon recently made announcements about robotics-related offerings intended to further advancements in industrial robots.

Just outside of Shanghai last week, at the company’s GTC China event, Nvidia announced that Chinese e-commerce giants JD.com and Meituan have both chosen to use the company’s Jetson AGX Xavier robotics platform for the development of next-generation autonomous delivery robots. Given the expected growth in online shopping in China, both e-commerce companies are looking to develop a line of small autonomous machines that can be used to deliver goods directly to consumers, and they intend to use Xavier and its associated JetPack SDK to do so.

At the company’s AWS:Invent event in Las Vegas this week, Amazon launched a cloud-based robotics test and development platform called AWS RoboMaker that it’s making available through its Amazon Web Services cloud computing offering. Designed for everyone from robotics students who compete in FIRST competitions through robotics professionals working at large corporations, RoboMaker is an open-source tool that leverages and extends the popular Robot Operating System (ROS).

Like some of Nvidia’s software offerings, RoboMaker is designed to ease the process of programming robots to perform sophisticated actions that leverage computer vision, speech recognition, and other AI-driven technologies. In the case of RoboMaker, those services are provided via a connection to Amazon’s cloud computing services. RoboMaker also offers the ability to manage large fleets of robots working together in industrial environments or places like large warehouses (hmm…wonder why?!)

The signs of growing robotic influence have been evident for a while in the consumer market as well. The success of Roomba robotic vacuums, for example, is widely heralded as the first step in a home robotics revolution. Plus, with the improvements that have occurred in critical technologies such as voice recognition, computer vision, AI, and sensors, we’re clearly on the cusp of what are likely to be some major consumer-focused robotics introductions in 2019. Indeed, Amazon is heavily rumored to be working on some type of home robot project—likely leveraging their Alexa work—that’s expected to be introduced sometime next year.

Robotics is also a key part of the recent renaissance in STEM education programs, as it allows kids of many ages to see the fun, tangible efforts of their science, math, and engineering-related skills brought to life. From the high-school level FIRST robotics competitions, down to early grade school level programs, future robotics engineers are being trained via these types of activities every day in schools around the world.

The influence of these robotics programs and the related maker movement developments have reached into the mainstream as well. I was pleasantly surprised to see a Raspberry Pi development board and other robotics-related educational toys in stock and on sale at, of all places, my local Target over the Black Friday shopping weekend.

The impact of robots certainly isn’t new in either the consumer or business world. However, except for a few instances, real-world interactions with them have still been limited for most people. Clearly, that’s about to change, and people (and companies) are going to have to be ready to adapt. Like the AI technologies that underlie a lot of the most recent robotics developments, there are some great opportunities, but also some serious concerns, particularly around job replacement, that more advanced robotics will bring with them. The challenge moving forward will be determining how to best use robots and robotic technology in ways that can improve the human experience.

In the end, Amazon’s announcement of Queens and Crystal City as the two new HQ locations was anti-climactic. In part because of the decision to split HQ2 after a year of breathless media coverage, and in part because many believe that the D.C. area choice was already a foregone conclusion given Jeff Bezos’ already substantial ties to the region. Cynics believe that the choice was typically Amazonian – where the company could get the best deal, rather than it necessarily being the best location for the company or, heaven forbid, embracing something slightly more altruistic by helping an up-and-coming tech city like Pittsburgh or Atlanta move to the top tier.

More importantly, this highly public process prompted a year-long thought process of how cities must compete for business and talent in the 21^st century economy. The Bay area and Seattle are already overheated, and the infrastructure (affordable housing, transport) to support much more is inadequate. In my hometown of Boston, which was one of the finalists, there was a collective feeling of relief at having not been selected, given already sky-high housing prices, clogged roads, and an overburdened public transport system. And it is both sad and a poor reflection on our current leadership when it takes the prospects of an Olympics or major new corporate headquarters to catalyze the type of strategic thinking and investment for any city that wants to be competitive in the 21^st century economy.

In my view, there are five key elements necessary to be in the game:

• Talent. Both extant and potential via a good educational system and strong universities.
• Diversity of economy. You don’t want to be too dependent on any one industry or economic sector. Pittsburgh is a great example. Whereas the collapse of the steel industry nearly killed Pittsburgh 1.0, Pittsburgh 2.0 has a much greater diversity of vibrant industries, fueled by a unique level of cooperation among its private, public, and educational sectors.
• Infrastructure. An adequate road system and a viable public transportation system. It’s becoming clear that 21^st century workers don’t want to spend their lives sitting in cars. For certain types of employers/employees, proximity of a decent airport is also a factor.
• Affordable Housing & Livability. If you’re earning $100,000 and can’t afford a pleasant one-or two- bedroom apartment/condo in the city or a modest home in a close-in suburb, it’s a problem. There’s also the slightly more amorphous concept of ‘livability’, such as a city’s walkability, and the presence/proximity of culture and other amenities. Something I’ve always thought is important is ‘what’s a tank away’?, in other words are there nice places you can easily get to for a day trip or a weekend (beach, mountains, etc.).
• Progressive Local Leadership. Given the dysfunction on the national level and lack of strategic, long-term investment in education and infrastructure, cities and states with strong local leadership are breaking through. Examples: Nashville, Tulsa, and Los Angeles.

Now, let’s take a look at a few of the cities that were not only finalists in the Amazon hunt, but would be viable contenders at least for the ‘next Amazon’. How do they stack up on the above criteria?

Boston. Educational institutions, diversity of economy, livability, and talent are its strengths. But the city’s housing prices have become Bay-area-esque, and its infrastructure is overburdened and crumbling, with no long-term plan in place. It’s like a city that’s over-touristed and is saying, ‘no more’.

Dallas. Yes, it’s economy is on fire, but my sense is that this is a place that people move to once their career is established rather than being a preferred location for younger talent. And while it’s affordable compared to a lot of other cities, Dallas lacks top tier educational institutions that are feeders to tech companies, and remains too auto-centric, despite some recent investments in public transport.

Austin. This city has a lot of the right ingredients in place and has attracted a lot of tech companies already. A much younger, more vibrant feel than Dallas, in part because of the giant University of Texas at Austin. But growth has outpaced infrastructure investment, with sprawl and traffic impacting the quality of life factors that made this city attractive after Dell helped put it on the map.

Atlanta. Has many of the same attributes and challenges as Dallas, but is a notch above in terms of top tier educational institutions. I think traffic/sprawl/infrastructure challenges are what kept it out of the running for Amazon.

Pittsburgh. Here’s a city that has done and is doing a lot of things right to become a 2.0 version of itself. A quite livable place. Not yet a major league city on a global scale, and needs to substantially invest in its transport infrastructure if current growth trajectory continues.

Nashville. Has a lot of the same ingredients as Pittsburgh, and has used its assets to become a major healthcare/tech center. A progressive mayor has courted companies and made the right investments and strategic decisions to make the city much more livable (new park & bike trails, better roads/transport, tons of new housing).

Los Angeles. The highly progressive mayor Eric Garcetti is making huge investments in infrastructure and affordable housing and doing real things to address the homeless issue, tackle inequality, and diversify the economy. This fascinating, diverse place has the potential to be a revitalized global city for the 21^st Century…or it could get crushed under the weight of its size and years of under-investment.

I should also mention three Canadian cities that are already seriously on the map:

Toronto. Now North America’s third largest city, Toronto (and the tech epicenter of nearby Waterloo) was a contender for Amazon HQ. And not just because of the idea of ‘Trump Snub’ that the media loved writing about. This city is culturally and economically diverse, has strong educational institutions, and is very livable. It does suffer from U.S.-like problems of traffic and sprawl and inadequate rapid transit outside the city core. And housing prices are among the highest in North America. But you will be hearing more about Toronto in the coming years.

Vancouver. Incredible quality of life, if you can get past the Seattle-esque six months of gloominess. This will be a major 21^st century city, given its setting, strong educational institutions, and diversity. The huge run up in real estate prices (mainly due to foreign investment) and lack of good rapid transit are challenges…that are actually being addressed. V

Montreal. This city has all the right ingredients: already a tech and creative hub, strong educational institutions and tons of talent, still relatively affordable, and a high quality of life. Montreal is also making a significant investment in improving its roads and expanding its transport system. Its brutal winters are a factor for some, and still restrictive language laws keep some companies (and people) away.

And finally, here’s a few more from among the major North America cities:

Getting to the Next Stage: Minneapolis-St. Paul, Portland (OR), Phoenix, Detroit, Philadelphia.

Not Progressing/Worry Button: Chicago, Miami, Orlando, Charlotte, Baltimore…and San Francisco.

Cities shouldn’t be overdoing the post-mortem about why they didn’t get Amazon HQ2. Instead, they should be thinking about what’s needed for them to land the ‘next HQ’.

A classic way for engineers to solve a particularly vexing technical problem is to move things in a completely different direction—typically by “thinking outside the box.” Such is the case with challenges facing the semiconductor industry. With the laws of physics quickly closing in on them, the traditional brute force means of maintaining Moore’s Law, by shrinking the size of transistors, is quickly coming to an end. Whether things stall at the current 7nm (nanometer) size, drop down to 5nm, or at best, reach 4nm, the reality of a nearly insurmountable wall is fast approaching today’s leading vendors.

As a result, semiconductor companies are having to develop different ways to keep the essential performance progress they need moving in a positive direction. One of the most compelling ideas, chiplets, isn’t a terribly new one, but it’s being deployed in interesting new ways. Chiplets are key IP blocks taken from a more complete chip design that are broken out on their own and then connected together with clever new packaging and interconnect technologies. Basically, it’s a new version of an SoC (system on chip), which combined various pieces of independent silicon onto a multi-chip module (MCM) to provide a complete solution.

So, for example, a modern CPU typically includes the main compute engine, a memory controller for connecting to main system memory, an I/O hub for talking to other peripherals, and several other different elements. In the world of chiplets, some of these elements can be broken back out into separate parts (essentially reversing the integration trend that has fueled semiconductor advances for such a long time), optimized for their own best performance (and for their own best manufacturing node size), and then connected back together in Lego block-type fashion.

While that may seem a bit counter-intuitive compared to typical semiconductor industry trends, chiplet designs help address several issues that have arisen as a result of traditional advances. First, while integration of multiple components into a single chip arguably makes things simpler, the truth is that today’s chips have become both enormously complex and quite large as a result. Ensuring high-quality, defect-free manufacturing of these large, complex chips—especially while you’re trying to reduce transistor size at the same time—has proven to be an overwhelming challenge. That’s one of the key reasons why we’ve seen delays or even cancellations of moves to current 10nm and 7nm production from many major chip foundries.

Second, it turns out not every type of chip element actually benefits from smaller sizes. The basic argument for shrinking transistors is to reduce costs, reduce power consumption, and improve performance. With elements like the analog circuitry in I/O components, however, it turns out there’s a point of diminishing returns where smaller transistors are actually more expensive and don’t get the performance benefits you might expect from smaller production geometries. As a result, it just doesn’t make sense to try and move current monolithic chip designs to these smaller sizes.

Finally, some of the more interesting advancements in the semiconductor world are now occurring in interconnect and packaging technologies. From the 3D stacking of components being used to increase the capacity of flash memory chips, to the high-speed interfaces being developed to enable both high-speed on-chip and chip-to-chip communications, the need to keep all the critical components of a chip design at the same process level are simply going away. Instead, companies are focusing on creating clever new ways to interconnect IP blocks/components in order to achieve the performance enhancements they used to only be able to get through traditional Moore’s Law transistor shrinks.

AMD, for example, has made its Infinity Fabric interconnect technology a critical part of its Zen CPU designs, and at last week’s 7nm event, the company highlighted how they’ve extended it to their new data center-focused CPUs and new GPUs now as well. The next generation Epyc server CPU, codenamed “Rome,” scheduled for release in 2019, leverages up to 8 separate Zen2-based CPU chiplets interconnected over their latest generation Infinity Fabric to provide 64 cores in a single SoC. The result, they claim, is performance in a single socket server that can beat Intel’s current best two-socket server CPU configuration.

In addition, AMD highlighted how its new 7nm data center-focused Radeon Instinct GPU designs can now also be connected over Infinity Fabric both for GPU-to-GPU connections as well as for faster CPU-to-GPU connections (similar to Nvidia’s existing NVLink protocol), which could prove to be very important for advanced workloads like AI training, supercomputing, and more.

Interestingly, AMD and Intel worked together on a combined CPU/GPU part earlier this year that leveraged a slightly different interconnect technology but allowed them to put an Intel CPU together with a discrete AMD Radeon GPU (for high-powered PCs like the Dell XPS15 and HP 15” Spectre X360) onto a single chip.

Semiconductor IP creator Arm has been enabling an architecture for chiplet-like mobile SoC designs with its CCI (Cache Coherent Interconnect) technology for several years now. In fact, companies like Apple and Qualcomm use that type of technology for their A-Series and Snapdragon series chips, respectively.

Intel, for its part, is also planning to leverage chiplet technology for future designs. Though specific details are still to come, the company has discussed not just CPU-to-CPU connections, but also being able to integrate high-speed links with other chip IP blocks, such as Nervana AI accelerators, FPGAs and more.

In fact, the whole future of semiconductor design could be revolutionized by standardized, high-speed interconnections among various different chip components (each of which may be produced with different transistor sizes). Imagine, for example, the possibility of more specialized accelerators being developed by small innovative semiconductor companies for a variety of different applications and then integrated into final system designs that incorporate the main CPUs or GPUs from larger players, like Intel, AMD, or Nvidia.

Unfortunately, right now, a single industry standard for chiplet interconnect doesn’t exist—in the near term we may see individual companies choose to license their specific implementations to specific partners—but there’s likely to be pressure to create that standard in the future. There are several tech standards for chip-related interconnect, including CCIX (Cache Coherent Interconnect for Accelerators), which builds on the PCIe 4.0 standard, and the system-level Gen-Z standard, but nothing that all the critical players in the semiconductor ecosystem have completely embraced. In addition, standards need to be developed as to how different chiplets can be pieced together and manufactured in a consistent way.

Exactly how the advancements in chiplets and associated technologies relate to the ability to maintain traditional Moore’s law metrics isn’t entirely clear right now, but what is clear is that the semiconductor industry isn’t letting potential roadblocks stop it from making important new advances that will keep the tech industry evolving for some time to come.