Fox, Aereo, and the End of TV

Aereo antenna array (Aereo, Inc.)

News Corp. Chief Operating Officer Chase Carey’s threat to pull the Fox network from the airwaves if Aereo wins its legal battle to retransmit over-the-air TV signals without paying for them is probably nothing more than bluster. But the fact that he could make such a threat with a straight face, and in front of the National Association of Broadcasters, no less, is a clear indication that the end of TV as we have known it is approaching.

The broadcast networks, especially Fox and the old big three of ABC, CBS, and NBC–are still tremendously important players in the TV world. Far more people watch their content than any of the cable-only channels. They still dominate news and live sports (though ESPN and to a lesser extent Fox have made significant inroads in the latter).

But over-the-air is no longer how they reach most of their viewers. And while we still think of broadcast TV as ad-supported, the retransmission consent fees paid by cable carriers–and avoided by Aereo–have become a tremendously important source of revenue to local stations. In a sense, they already are pay TV stations from the point of view of most viewers, and that is why  Carey’s threat is not an empty one.

What would it mean if over-the-air broadcast TV disappeared? For one thing, we could forget about the hideously complex incentive auction now being planned by the FCC to free a bit of the prime spectrum now occupied by TV stations for wireless data use and just turn the whole thing over to wireless.

Some of the more interesting consequences would be for politicians. Members of Congress depend on local stations to keep their names and faces in front of voters, especially as local newspapers fade away. Politicians are also the beneficiary of regulations that require local stations to sell advertising to candidates for federal office at the lowest rates they charge any customer. In fact, if stations stopped broadcasting over the air, the Federal Communications Commission would lose essentially all ability to regulate their content, rates, or much of anything else.

Even the most anti-regulation Republican doesn’t really want that to happen. That’s why Carey’s real audience may have been Congress. If Aereo wins in court, as seems increasingly likely, the broadcasters are likely to turn to Congress for relief. Carey’s statement was likely a shot across the bow in that fight.

But history has shown us that depending on favorable treatment from government to save you from the forces of change can work, but only for a little while. The times they are a-changing for television.

Why Google Shouldn’t Be Concerned About Facebook Home

Yesterday, Facebook announced “Home”, a skin that runs on top of Android, pulling consumer’s Facebook experience up to literally the lock–screen of the phone. The demos were facebook homefast, fluid, and very different than anything Android has to offer.  A lot of the press coverage ensued that talked about the big threat this could bring to Android.  Techpinion’s own Steve Wildstrom got into the action, too. The drama is fun, but nothing is farther from the truth on how this will play out.  Facebook Home, in its current form, is nothing more than a skin like MotoBlur, Sense and TouchWiz which will encounter the same challenges and consumer push-back and carrier and handset challenges.

Some of theories that were used to justify the big threat to Google went like this:

  • It’s harder to get to native Google search, their bread and butter
  • Friend updates show up on the lock screen, eliminating the need to get into your phone and Google services
  • Home will lead to Android forking, causing more fragmentation and more app incompatibility

The problem is, none of these logic paths end with the destruction of Google or Android. Let’s peel back the onion.

Anything that slows down the experience for a phone will ultimately get disabled or make consumers very unhappy.  Consider the skins that the major manufacturers install.  There isn’t a single one that doesn’t slow down the base experience when compared to a native Nexus phone.  Not a single one.  I doubt that Facebook Home has found some magical way to crack the code on how to place a layer onto a layer on top of an OS and make it fast.  The demos were fast and fluid, but I am highly skeptical that it will actually work this well.  Only Google holds the keys to this as it involves deep access to the kernel of Android, not the base Android APIs. You think Google gave Facebook access to that?  No way. Facebook will be constantly chasing multiple versions of Android, never able to get the experience where they need it, and it will be slow and buggy.

The next issue with Facebook Home is that doesn’t enable the total experience.  Users will be abruptly moving back and forth between Home and the rest of their home, kind of like switching between two different phones. While not as jarring as moving back and forth between Windows 8 Metro and Desktop, it is still like having two different phones. Facebook Home offers Facebook and Instagram capability, Address book, Messenger and even repackages texts.  But what about the other things you want to do with your phone?  Things like searching for the nearest restaurant, driving directions, tweeting, taking pictures, or web search?  Does anyone really think that if Facebook makes those critical usage more difficult to access, consumers will like that?  The promise of Facebook all the time will be extinguished by the complexity of having two experiences or two phones.

Let’s now address control, control of Android and control of the experience on two levels.  Let’s start with Android control. Google controls Android and they can change the terms and conditions as they see fit.  Android isn’t Linux, it’s owned by Google and they can do what they choose with future versions.  If Facebook Home would surprisingly gain popularity, they will simply change an API or a condition of Google Play or the Android license to make life difficult for Facebook.  It’s no different from what Microsoft has done for years on Windows and I don’t see that changing if or when Tizen or Windows 8 becomes more popular.  Let’s look at control of the experience.  Facebook Home has a built-in governor.  The carriers and handset makers know from Apple that those who control the experience hold the keys to the kingdom.  Sure the carriers and handset makers will take Facebook’s revenue share deal and engineering resources, but don’t think for a second they will keep doing it if it starts to get too much traction.    Therefore Facebook Home can only get limited traction or they will get shut down by carriers and handset makers, which forces Facebook to do what they didn’t want to do, which is do their own phone.

In summary, the Facebook Home announcement showed some nice looking demos of Facebook and how the Facebook experience could be improved.  It doesn’t show, however, how the holistic phone experience is improved.  Consumers do more than Facebook on their phones and that’s where Home breaks down.  Consumers don’t want different experiences, they want one connected experience.   Didn’t Apple teach us that? Even technically, Facebook will have challenges even delivering a fast and engaging experience because, like skins, they are constantly chasing a moving target. They have the same access to the APIs as everyone else does, and only Google holds the keys to the kernel.  If Facebook Home ever does get traction, it will be fleeting because Google can and will change something in Android or change the terms and condition to make life difficult.  Carriers and handset makers will gladly take Facebook’s money now, but if it gains too much traction, they will be forced to drop it else lose control. They don’t want two Googles.

Facebook Home will be a niche offering until Facebook can build out a winning set of holistic phone services and apps, but based on control, will ultimately need to get into the phone business, a tall and risk-laden order.

HP ENVY X2: One Step Closer to the Hybrid Future

As a technology analyst, I spend a lot time analyzing and keeping the pulse on the latest in inflection points, the ones that matter. Modularity is one of those factors and will be an specs_laptop_front_tcm_245_1287690important thing to keep an eye on for the next 5-10 years. In present day, modularity is important with the smartphone to the TV and the tablet to the keyboard, the latter the subject of this analysis.

The entire PC market is in a bit of a funk driven by the macro-economic environment, but primarily driven by consumer’s fascination with smartphones and tablets. Many consumers voted in 2012 to buy a new tablet, upgrade their phone rather than upgrade their PC.  Hybrids and convertibles over time will change this and I believe 2014 is the year where consumers will view PCs as perceptually cool again. The process will start this year, but end in 2013.

Tablet hybrids first came officially on the scene with the Asus Transformer, an Android-based tablet that fit into a keyboard. I have spent a lot of time with hybrids from the Transformer to the Samsung ATIV to the Surface RT and now after having spent a month with a new device, I will share my experiences with HP’s ENVY X2 latest consumer hybrid.  The X2 is very different from the predecessors I tested before it.

Design
The first thing that’s different about the X2 is its striking, all-brushed aluminum design. During my month with the X2, I visited three different countries and spent a lot of time in airports and trade shows floors where I took the X2. Many people would ask me what is was and comment on the design. In tablet mode, it is extremely thin and feels like an iPad but an 11.6″ one. In laptop mode, some people thought it was a MacBook Air until I popped off the tablet. When I pulled off the tablet, every single person said “wow”. The power and volume buttons are flush with the system and designed to be used without the user re-orienting the device which is a nice attention to detail.

Weight and Dimensions
The X2 weighs in at 3.11 lbs, which is a bit heavy for an 11.6″ notebook, but aluminum isn’t plastic, which is lighter. This is a design trade-off that consumers will usually always accept as long as it is near that 3 lb. mark.  As a tablet, I didn’t feel like I was straining, either.  My guess is that it is heavier than the MacBook Air because it needed counter-weight in the keyboard to keep the unit from tipping over, as all the major components are in the keyboard.

Keyboard and Trackpad
The hybrid comes with a full-sized keyboard with full-sized trackpad that is responsive to the full Windows 8 gesture set. Most hybrids cheap-out on the trackpad and I think the use of Synaptics is to be commended. I wrote everything including research papers on the keyboard which has function keys, delete keys and arrow keys and never felt cramped.

Multimedia
Thankfully, the product managers didn’t cheap out on the multimedia features. The X2’s rear camera is 8MP which is much appreciated at volleyball and basketball games. Yes, I am one of those annoying parents taking video with a tablet. My rationale is that it is better than on my phone which will suck the batteries dry. If you don’t understand this then you probably haven’t spent three, 10 hour days of club-level volleyball with your  kids.  The camera also has a very bright flash, unique in its class. The front facing camera supports 1080P video, much appreciated on Skype. In the follow on products, I would like to see some work done on the camera subsystem to take pictures as fast and as high quality as a phone.  This is primarily of the Intel Hive-acquired ISP.

At 11.6″, the display was large for a tablet and perfect for a highly mobile laptop. The 1366×768 resolution is perfectly fine for notebook mode and even watching movies. I love higher-res displays like Retina, but there are certain use cases a user must have them so they don’t see pixels or need the fidelity for photos. This isn’t one of them as an 11.6″ display tablet isn’t the one you will use in bed and read a book on. That’s better territory for the Nexus 7 or ipad mini. The closer the display is to the eyes, the higher the res should be so you don’t see pixels unless you must see original view of pictures.

Expandability
Compared to just a tablet, the X2 offers the full sized keyboard and trackpad that converts it into a small notebook. The tablet holds one microSD card slot for photo or data transfer. The keyboard dock has a much-appreciated full HDMI connector and a full-sized SD card slot for inexpensive mass storage. I really appreciate the full HDMI slot as I cannot tell you how many of the iPad HDMI adapters I have lost.  The dock also has two USB 2.0 slots and mini-connector for speaker and mic. After my long business trips, I appreciated coming home and connecting the X2 to my 32″ display extending my experience even further.

Durability
I dropped the X2 (unintentionally) twice on concrete floors and I can say the unit fared a lot better than I expected. Using many devices, I have broken many devices and I have broken three iPads. After my unexpected drop-test, the unit suffered only scrapes but no cracked display.

Software and Hardware
The HP hybrid runs all Metro-based apps as well as Windows desktop style apps. This is great and I really appreciated using Outlook with Google Sync plug-ins, fully-synced Google Drive, Google Chrome and Evernote. While I consider myself a sophisticated user and know the limits of the system, I can see how a general consumer could easily overload the system. While the dual core, four thread Intel Z2760 (aka Clover Trail) is good in its class, it’s not the processor you can do everything a Core i Processor is designed to do. On occasion, I had too many Google Chrome windows open and the system came to a crawl. I also found myself running out of storage space due to my own fault of putting my Google drive and Outlook .OST on the C drive. I didn’t feel comfortable putting it on the SD cards because I have sensitive and confidential information there. I am very much looking forward to Intel’s next generation Bay Trail in this form factor.

As with full Windows 8 and X86 processor, I can connect just about every hardware peripheral I have and it just works. I connected all my mice, cameras, printers and they just worked.

Battery Life
The X2’s battery life was the biggest shocker. In tablet mode, I got around nine hours with the tablet and with the keyboard, I got around 14 hours. I didn’t do official benchmarking, but I did test while on many transcontinental trips where I was writing research papers.

Price
Price is a challenge to place a verdict on because the X2 is just so versatile. Launch pricing was set at $849 for the 64GB-WiFi edition but right now, the unit is selling for $599 on sale, which is an absolute steal. At $849 one must compare it to the MacBook Air which starts at $999 and apply value to touch, convertible design, and battery life and deduct for Core i5 performance. At $599, the X2 with keyboard is a no-brainer as compared to the 64GB iPad 4 at $599.

Conclusion
The HP ENVY X2 shows that hybrid designs are evolving to a point where in late 2013, early 2014, consumers will need to find some other justification to pay $499 for a tablet-only design that doesn’t elegantly dock in a very integrated fashion. By elegant and integrated, I’m not talking just about adding a Bluetooth keyboard, but deeper integration like that of the X2 and beyond. By 2014, no premium-priced (499+) tablets will sell well that cannot do this and OEMs and ODMs will need to address this and invest in better modular capabilities.  And as Apple scorned video on the iPod and 7″ tablets, I am sure they have a few prototypes of a few “fridge-toasters” in test which would make for a very interesting 2014.

AMD SurRoundhouse Concept: Future Cure for the CE Industry Woes?

For a run of at least 30 years, the “classic” consumer electronics industry successfully transitioned from one technologyWP_20130110_037 to another.  TVs are a good example.  TVs went from big color tubes to rear projection to flat panels and HD projection to HD panels.  We can’t forget laser disc to Beta to VHS to DVD either.  Consumers ate it up, too, and were pleased to roll the old iron out of the living room into another room and roll the new gear in.

Then things changed with 3D TVs, which were an unmitigated disaster for the industry.  I call it a disaster because for the most part, consumers were not willing to pay more for 3D and in some cases flat out didn’t want it.  HDTV margins collapsed and are still in a funk for many CE markets.  4K TV and Smart TV is NOT the solution either as research I have seen indicates general consumers won’t pay a premium.  There are a few things going on here.  First, already-installed generic 1080P flat panels at 10” will be a very good solution for many years to come.  No one quite knows how long the installed base of displays will last, but it could be 10 years.

Smart TV’s, while valued more than 3D by consumers, isn’t valued at a lot either.  Consumers are getting conditioned, too, to know you can add “smarts” for as low as $50 with the external add-on of a Roku, Apple TV, or DVD player.  So what is the answer to revitalize the “classic” CE industry?  You really need to understand the problem, and the problem is lack of immersiveness and too many constraints.

Certainly,  3D HDTV was more immersive than HDTV, but not enough so for us to spend hundreds more to replace our current 1080P TVs.  Also, 3DTV had too many constraints, or what I like to call “if-thens”. Everyone in the room had to wear 3D glasses to enjoy the content and without it, the content is a blur.  3D glasses aren’t cheap, either, as active glasses were $50-$100 a pair.  Then there is the hassle of charging and making sure every one of them is ready for the big movie. Then there is the nausea some people feel when watching 3D videos.  There are 2.6M results from a Google search result from “3D” and “nausea.”  Passive 3D like LG showed at this and last year’s CES will significantly lower the glasses cost and a few manufacturers showed prototypes of glasses-less 3D TVs, but are many years off and are not very high quality.  3D may not the answer, but what is?

Consumers are looking for immersiveness without constraints which is affordable.  One example of this is a concept AMD showed off at CES.  AMD showed off its “SurRoundhouse” proof of concept which is quite expensive and complex now, but takes the industry in the correct, general direction.  The SurRound house is a “theater” room with 10, 55” HDTVs looking like windows in a house, 32 speakers, and four subwoofers.  The ten LG 1080P HDTVs displayed more than 600 Mp per second at 10,800 x 1,920 resolution, which is 3X the resolution of 4K (UltraHD), albeit spread around the room.  Driving the video and audio was one PC with an AMD FX 8150 8-core Black Edition processor with three FirePro 8000 graphics cards with Digital Multipoint Audio which was amplified by eight AV receivers.

AMD plays what looks like a hostage rescue scene from a video game and shifts audio from stereo to 32 speakers to show the value of high quality, multi-channel, positional audio. Each shift of the audio takes your eye to different windows of the house and as helicopters are flying, crashing, and as multiple machine gun melees erupt, you really feel like you are in a different and very real place.  The content was entirely custom and to it takes work to get games and movies to take advantage of a setup like this.   This is a different class of entertainment, one that could actually motivate to invest, maybe over-invest in new CE gear.

Here is a smartphone video I took of AMD’s SurRoundhouse.  Of course you don’t get the same experience as as the real thing, but you can get somewhat of a sense of the experience below.  Make sure you select 1080P and full screen:

AMD could have improved the experience even more by improving the quality of the graphics in the scenes.  They looked more cartoony than life-like.  AMD says that the goal of the demonstration was to show the experiential difference in the audio, but I’d still like to see max graphics to turn it into a reality show.

So how is a $35,000, 10 display, 8 receiver, 36 speaker setup requiring custom content “without constraints” and “affordable”?  It’s not right now, but if you look ahead to new technologies, the cost curve, and need for CE and entertainment businesses to create radically different experiences, it could very well become affordable and relatively simple.  Let me explain.

First challenge is content.  The entertainment industry has shown that it will make changes if it sees potential extinction or at least a major depression in business.  The film industry started shooting in 4K well before 1080P had mass adoption so the big question would be “if” they see the opportunity to shoot in multi-“frame” and multi-“angle” dimensions to be surround or at least convex.  The next challenge is cabling, but possibly already has a video solution with multi-channel, 60Ghz wireless display technology.  Lower frequency wireless speakers are already available, but the challenge would be to solve amplification at the current frequencies.  The great thing about wireless audio is that you wouldn’t need eight receivers to send the right audio to the right speaker.  Theoretically, you would only need one with a bunch of broadcast antennas.

Then there are the displays…. The current monitor sweet spot this year will be at around 30,” priced around $300.  I can imagine in 5 years that that $300 display becomes 40-50” for a full room display build out around $3,000.  This seems reasonable when you think that LG sells their 89” 4K TV today for $22,000.   Yes, 4K displays will lower in price, but how many years before it gets down to $3,000?

AMD’s SurRoundhouse gives the industry a potential scenario for the entertainment or theater room of the future.  While it doesn’t pass the tests for mass industry adoption today in media rooms, it could, and is certainly more interesting than the same boring, flat experience.  Neither 4K or SmartTV is the solution to the woes of the traditional CE market and I hope they are looking at AMD’s glimpse of the future.

Leaving the iPhone- How Android Stacks Up

About a month ago, I made the decision to stop using my iPhone 4s with the possible outcome of leaving the iPhone for an Android or motorola-razriWindows phone for an extended period of time.  I don’t want to use the term “never”, because that’s limiting.  As promised, I wanted to share with you my experiences with Android so that you may get a deeper insight into how other users may feel and respond to their next phone purchase and experience.  I want to reinforce that this is, at best, a qualitative research study of one individual; me. I possibly represent a market segment of U.S. mid 40-something males that is technically savvy and enthusiastic about technology.  I will talk about the pros, cons, and things that just didn’t matter one way or the other when comparing my iPhone 4s to Android phones.

I used three Android phones, bouncing back and forth between them to experience  Android.  The three phones were: Samsung Nexus, Motorola Razr HD i, and the HTC One X+ which were provided to me to use.  Let’s start out with the Android phone plusses.

Android Phone Plusses

Instant access to info and controls via Widgets: With Android Widgets I can look at my most often accessed information without even opening up an app.  My most often used app widgets were Mail, Calendar, sports scores, weather, social media updates, and TripIt.  The neat part is that you can actually manipulate the data in the app and there more often than not, don’t need to open the app. This is a big time saver.  My Android control widgets were display settings and hotspot, so instead of three clicks, it takes one.

Free hotspot: This one is very straight-forward.  On AT&T and my iPhone, I needed to pay extra for a Wi-Fi hotspot and with my Android phones I did not.

Easier content sharing: Sharing content like photos to multiple social media sites is very easy.  With my iPhone I need to open the app then I can pull in content like a photo or video with the exceptions of Facebook and Twitter.  With my Android phones I can share a photo or web link to Instagram, Dropbox, Evernote, Sugarsync, Foursquare, Google+, Google Drive, Flickr, HootSuite, Messenger, Picasa, Skitch, SkyDrive, Skype, WordPress, and HTC_One_X_Plusmany more.

Google Voice: As I said in my earlier post, I drive a lot and need speech to text for notes and texts that works really well.  Google Voice just works where Siri does not work well for me.

Flawless sync with Google Services: Google Services like Mail, Calendar, Tasks and maps work flawlessly. They don’t work well or aren’t as feature rich with my iPhone.  Contacts are a great example as my iPhone contacts would not sync with my Google contacts without the need of another app.  We don’t need to talk about Google maps.

Cool tools: I really like some of the very cool tools that come with the phones.  Motorola Smart Actions makes suggestions to automate task like personalizing context aware situations like while sleeping, at home and at work.  HTC has a power saver toggle that really did save power and a very detailed “usage” tab that showed me exactly how much data each app used and would send me warnings based on my pre-set conditions.

Multitasking control: Android lets the user control everything about multitasking, more like a PC or Mac.  This came in real handy when uploading photos in the background to cloud storage or social media sites.  It also works great to have a fully refreshed phone with the latest data from Pulse, Podcasts, and Evernote.  To not kill power, many of the apps give you a choice to only upload during WiFi connection or when plugged in.  Sugarsync is smart enough to stop uploading photos when the battery gets to 25%. My iPhone just doesn’t do this.

Chrome browser: This isn’t the WebKit browser in iOS, it’s the real thing, and I can sync my PCs bookmarks, passwords, and tabs from other Chrome browsers.  Yes, I could do this with Safari, but I preferred Chrome for my PC and Mac browser.

Google Now: I am very impressed with Google Now, primarily the search based cards. It is very helpful to be on a trip out of town and Google Now displays when my plane leaves, the gate, the weather there, hotel details without entering any data.  It’s indexing my emails which a bit creepy, but adds value so I let it do it.

Now let’s move onto the areas that didn’t make a difference one way or another.

Android Phone Neutrals

Same “Page 1” apps: Unlike Android of yesterday, Jelly Bean offer the most popular and trendy apps, they aren’t “ugly” anymore and have very similar feature sets. One exception, Evernote, is still very ugly compared to iOS, but that’s about it.  All my other “page 1” apps look and run just fine.

Feel and flow: I’ve used every version of Android since inception and none ever “felt” as good as iOS… until Jelly Bean.  Project Butter made a very big experiential difference.

Battery life: I didn’t feel and more or less battery life with any of the phones, except the Motorola Razr HD i, which seemed to last longer.  There are a 100 review web sites that can give you exact figures, so I will stop there.

Android Phone Minuses

Camera: However many people told me about the great Android cameras, they all felt short to my iPhone, except in some flash circumstances, where images were white-washed.  All my Android cameras took photos quicker, had more settings, but the pictures never looked as good as the iPhone 4s.

Mail: This is a tough one, one that I waffle on, because I spent the last few years on an iPhone.  I prefer iOS email to Android for reasons that are hard to explain.  Android mail doesn’t look or feel right to me and it’s too hard to find a new folder.  This may have something to do with the fact I have four email accounts, but that’s the way I operate.  The only exceptions are swipes, which you can customize in Android to do what you want, like delete.

Courtesy links: This isn’t the official name in iOS, but I dearly miss the “courtesy links”.  These are the links to addresses, phone numbers in mail, calendar, and web pages that allow you to do something.  Adding a name embedded in an email is torture in Android and pure bliss in iOS.

Copy-Paste: This, like mail, I am a bit torn.  Copying and pasting, a very basic function, and is more challenging for me on Android.  I don’t know if it’s because I spent most of my time on the iPhone the last few years but I get frustrated with Android.

Group text: Unlike the iPhone that presents group texts in order and in-context, Android presented texts to me in an out of order, jumbled way.  We’re 4 years into Android and I don’t understand how this can be.  Android can do better than this.

Next Stop, Windows Phone 8

I really did like the Android phones and none of the minuses turned me off enough to run immediately back to my iPhone.  After using Android phones for the last few weeks, I can see very much why so many people gravitate to it.  It’s more than low price; many of the experiences I found much more enjoyable than my iPhone.  Android felt so more empowering, too, as I am in control of the phone, not the manufacturer.  As my iPhone 4s is sitting in my drawer collecting dust for a while, I’ll be taking the Nokia Lumia 920 and Windows Phone 8 for a deeper spin.  I’ll keep you posted.

More Amazing Amazonian Mathematics

Amazon announced today that “[a]pp downloads in the Appstore have grown more than 500 percent over the previous year.” ~ via Gigaom

Of course, we don’t know 500% of what, but what the hey, 500 is a big number, right? We should be duly impressed, no? As they say, it’s all geek to me.

We really need to coin a phrase for what Amazon is doing – releasing numbers without context. Not that Amazon is the first to do this, mind you. I’m sure the Romans were pulling this kind of stunt too:

“First Citizen, Julius Caesar announced today that ‘Our troop strength in Britain has grown by more than MDCCCLXXXVIII over the previous year.”

(That’s 1,888, in case you were wondering.)

Amazon can make all the pronouncements they want. But until they release real numbers, 500% or MDCCCLXXXVIII% of no information still remains…no information.

Evernote and Sugarsync: Headed in Reverse Windows 8 Gear

Two of the apps that changed the way I work are Evernote and Sugarsync.  Evernote allowed me to go paperless and Sugarsync allowed me to have access to all my data accessible by any device.  Both of the apps have very robust Windows 7, OSX, Android and iOS capability.  Robustness stops, though, at Windows 8, where Evernote and Sugarsync are the biggest disappointment I have yet to encounter with the new OS.  It has been 15 months since Microsoft’s BUILD event, more than enough time to architect, design, develop and test any application, particularly one with robust Windows 7 functionality.

Evernote for Windows 8 Metro

For the last few years I have infrequently used a pen or pencil to take a note in a meeting or at home.  I take all notes with Evernote.  Even if someone hands me a piece of paper, I will take a picture and import into Evernote.  Business card?  Import into Evernote and throw it away.  Whiteboard?  Take a picture and import into Evernote.  The great thing is that every image imported into Evernote is searchable, too.  This experience gracefully (relatively) scales across my PC, Mac, iPhone, Motorola RAZR I, Nexus 7, and iPad.  But falls miserably apart on Windows RT and 8.

homescreen_ipad_iphone_large
Evernote for iOS

Evernote for Windows 8 looks kind of similar, but falls down immeasurably.

Screenshot.789.1000002
Evernote for Windows 8 Metro

For the first few weeks, Evernote would not sync.  It pulled in one note from each month, then stopped.  Windows RT-based systems would just crash.  About a week ago, the sync feature started working on Windows 8 but still to this day, will not sync and just crashes after a few minutes of sync.

Here is the delta list of what I can do on Windows, OSX, Android and iOS that I cannot do on Windows 8:

  • Sync on opening app
  • Edit a note with any rich text.  Will only append.
  • Adding attachment
  • Edit text font, size, color, bold, italics, strike-through, alignment, bullet, number
  • Adding check-boxes and grids
  • Voice notes
  • View attachments (ie pdf, doc, ppt, xls).  You can see the file and it looks like you can touch it and open, but you cannot.
  • Sync in background (cannot on iOS either)
  • Save searches
  • View by pictures
  • Auto-subject by calendar
  • Paper image clean up
  • View by place (geo-positioned)

As you can see, the list of unsupported features is immense and keeps it from doing anything other than viewing or making very basic notes.  The continued crashed with the Windows RT app is inexcusable.  Judging by the mass of one and two start ratings in the app store, I’d say I’m not alone.  Stay away from Evernote and Windows 8 Metro; they don’t mix well.  Use the desktop app with Windows 8 desktop.

Now, onto Sugarsync.

Sugarsync for Windows 8 Metro

Sugarsync for Windows 7, OSX, Android and iOS enable you to keep your files in sync across devices.  On PC, Mac, and Android, files can be automatically synced in the background, too.  Therefore, every file you have on every device can automatically in sync to view and edit.  This all breaks down on Windows 8.

Sugarsync for iPad
Sugarsync for Windows 8

The Sugarsync experience is equally weak as Evernote.  Again, Sugarsync is multi-platform just like Evernote, but for some reason, they have decided to support a narrower subset than even iOS or Android.  Here is the Windows 8 delta list:

  • Search (no, you cannot search your files, online or offline)
  • Offline access to synced files (you must be connected to have access to documents)
  • Background sync
  • Select all devices synced to Sugarsync
  • Look for recent documents
  • Sort files by date

Finding what you are looking for is nearly impossible as there is not search, sort by date, or recent documents.  I cannot recommend any alternatives because none are better.  Literally, with Windows 8, you are landlocked.

Where to Next?

Evernote and Sugarsync need significant improvement or users will simply not use these apps.   Ironically on Evernote, this type of behavior reminds me how they treated Blackberry OS, which they do not support anymore.  While I don’t believe Evernote will discontinue Windows 8 support, they need to improve quickly and substantially to keep it from becoming naturally extinct.  With Sugarsync, the story is a bit different.  Even Microsoft hasn’t enabled Windows 8 offline storage with SkyDrive and at least with some of their messaging, they are trying to help the user learn how to do some sort of offline updating.  Sugarsync prompts the user to, “If you make changes to this file, please open Sugarsync again to automatically save your updated file to Sugarsync.  This way your updated file will be available across all your other decives [their misspelling] with Sugarsync”.  Very kludgy but at least it’s a way to keep files fresh.

Both companies have had over a year to plan, code and test for Windows 8 and there’s really no explanation other than lack of belief and priority in Windows 8 that explains this.  For the sake of users, I hope the situation is remedied quickly.  At a minimum, can you at least call them “preview”, alpha” or “beta”?

Dear Amazon: You don’t get to use words like “double”

On Tuesday, Amazon issued a press release entitled: “Worldwide Kindle Device Sales More Than Double Last Year’s Record Over Holiday Shopping Weekend.”

Here’s the thing, Amazon. You never told us last year’s sales numbers. In fact, you never told us ANY sales numbers. Double no information is still…no information.

Dear Amazon: Until you tell us WHAT you’re doubling, you don’t get to pretend that your use of the word “double” has any meaning or significance.

Banking On The iPad

Barclays Bank has ordered 8,500 iPads in what is believed to be one of the largest corporate deployments of the device in the UK. ~ via TUAW

This kind of thing has got to be terrifying to Microsoft. Microsoft is losing the battle for tablet’s in the Enterprise and they know it.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, the following has to make their blood run cold:

Barclays told The Channel that they went with the iPad because of staff demand.

However, Microsoft is in it for the long run and Windows 8 tablets have barely even come to bat yet. But if this was a baseball game, It would be like Microsoft coming to bat for the very first time in the bottom of the eighth inning already down 8-0.

Why Android Is Winning The Battles But Google Is Losing The War: Part 3

A Pyrrhic victory (/ˈpɪrɪk/) is a victory with such a devastating cost that it carries the implication that another such victory will ultimately lead to defeat. The phrase “Pyrrhic Victory” is named after King Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered irreplaceable casualties in defeating the Romans at Heraclea in 280 BC and Asculum in 279 BC during the Pyrrhic War. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way; however, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit. The term “Pyrrhic victory” is used as an analogy in fields such as business, politics, and sports to describe struggles that end up ruining the victor. ~ via Wikipedia

Series Schedule:

  • Mon: The Battle for the PC
  • Tue: The Battle for Mobile Phones Won
  • Wed: The War for Mobile Phones Lost
  • Thu: The Battle for Tablets
  • Fri: Picking Your Battles Is As Important as Winning Them
  • 3) The War For Mobile Phones Lost

    Mobile Search Is Not The Same As Desktop Search

    THE PLAN

    Google’s plan was to transport their highly successful desktop search strategy to the phone. This only made sense. Search worked on the desktop. Mobile was the future. Therefore, Google’s future would be search on mobile.

    MARKET SHARE

    Google’s problem is not a lack of market share. eMarketer notes that Google’s share of mobile ad revenue is 55% and it controls 95% of mobile search ads. No, Google’s problem is that search doesn’t work the same on mobile as it does on the PC. In fact, it barely works at all. On the PC, search rules. On the phone, apps rule and search is the court jester.

    SIZE MATTERS

    When it comes to ads, size really do matter. One of Google’s strenghts when advertising on the desktop was that they would unobtrusively place relevant ads next to and above their search results. On a phone, this was not possible. There simply wasn’t enough screen real estate to display both search results and advertisments.

    “Size absolutely does matter,” says Christine Chen, director of communication strategy at Goodby Silverstein & Partners, an ad agency in San Francisco. “If you look at the real estate available on a smartphone, it’s really sad compared to not just banner ads on the Web, but also to TV, print and outdoor advertising.”

    “The evidence is telling: advertisers are willing to pay much more to reach a thousand pairs of eyes gazing upon a computer or tablet than a thousand pairs looking at a smartphone screen.

    INVISIBLE OR IGNORED OR INVASIVE

    Mobile ads are relegated to a tiny portion of the screen and are often invisible or ignored by consumers.

    It’s a double-edged sword that cuts against advertisers both ways. It the ads aren’t big, they’re invisible. If they’re bigger, they’re seen as intrusive.

    Phones are seen as very personal. Users to not want to be tracked. Interestingly, while 60 percent smartphone users do not allow themselves to be tracked only 7 percent of tablet users and 18 percent of PC users reject tracking on their devices.

    NO OPTIMIZATION

    For both technical and privacy reasons, advertisers lost the ability to know who they were advertising to. On the desktop, cookies were the standard. On the phone, such technology was either unavailable or seen and intrusive or even offensive.

    “What makes Web ads so attractive to advertisers is the ability to track actions and optimize accordingly,” . Because a smartphone cannot use the same technology “your ability to track and optimize is much more blunt, or in some cases nonexistent.”

    This makes phone advertisments much less valuable that desktop advertisments. A banner ad on a Web page that costs $3 to $5 for every thousand impressions may cost only 75 cents or $1 for a thousand impressions on a smartphone.

    CONTEXT

    Context is important too. People surf the web for long periods of time on their tablets and on the desktop. They use their phones in bursts. Trying to promote ads when the user is attempting to grab a quick bite of information is annoying and counter-productive.

    ENGAGEMENT

    Finally, the engagement levels for smartphone users are lower, reflecting the slower speeds and smaller screens on smartphones.

    Android Doesn’t Monetize Ads Well

    How much of a problem is all this for Google? Huge. Android is so bad at monetizing ads that a study done on Opera placed Android in third plce behind BlackBerry on value for the money.

    Let me say that again. Android’s ads were in third place. Behind Blackberry.

    Apps Rule

    Google didn’t know that search on the phone wasn’t going to work the same as search on the desktop. Another thing they didn’t know was how important a role apps would play in both search and advertising.

    Smartphones were made for apps. People love to use apps on their smartphones. If they want the time for the next train, they use an app to tell them rather than doing a search. If they want to find a restaurant, they might do a search but they’re even more likely to use an app.

    Google’s problem is that apps are not searchable by web crawlers. If Google can’t search it, they can’t sell ads against it. For Google, apps are like a large and ever expanding black hole in their advertising universe. And as that hole gets bigger and bigger Android’s advertising opportunities get smaller and smaller.

    Android App Apathy

    But Android has apps. 700,000 of them. As many or more than any other operating system. So why isn’t Google making money from the sale of apps and app advertising?

    Take the University Co-op Society, which sells University of Texas merchandise via stores, the web, an m-commerce site, an iPhone app and an Android app. When it comes to m-commerce, Apple rules.

    “IPhone app sales are about 25% of our total mobile business and Android app sales are less than 10%,” says Brian Jewell, vice president of marketing. “That leaves a big chunk of sales that come directly from the mobile site. People entering our address directly or coming to us via a search engine or also possibly clicking through from an e-mail blast.”

    And on the mobile site, Apple dominates. Today, 50% of mobile traffic to the University Co-op Society’s web site stems from iPhones, 25% from iPads, 20% from Android devices and 5% from devices running other mobile operating systems.

    Retailers of all stripes tell similar stories, which is why retailers building mobile apps invariably have started with an iPhone app. Android is an afterthought.

    “Android users do not buy. IPhone users buy,” says David Sasson, president and founder of overstockArt.com.

    Android advocates bristle when confronted with the suggestion that Android owners do not buy content or consume advertising on their mobile phones. They say it is insulting.

    First, I’m not insulting anyone. If anyone is insulting Android owners, it is the facts, not I.

    Second, Android owners are not required to buy aps and content or consume advertising. It doesn’t make them bad people. It just makes them bad customers.

    We can argue all day as to exactly why Android owners aren’t buying. There’s lots of theories. The one thing we can’t argue with is the facts. Android owners aren’t buying. And that single fact turns all the market share numbers and the arguments for Android’s dominance on its head.

    ‘Cause you see – and this is the key point missed by most pundits – developers, advertisers, retailers and others don’t follow unit sales – and they don’t follow customers – they follow the money. And until Android owners are induced to part with more of their money, their overwhelming market share numbers mean little.

    The Future

    The future of mobile advertising doesn’t look any brighter for Google either. Voice search poses a huge threat as voice activated searches, like Siri, simply bypass Google search altogether.

    And then there’s always the ultimate threat that Apple will simply purge Google from its system by making Bing or some other brand the default search engine. It is reported that Google pays Apple $1 billion to be its default search, and earns about $1.3B from searches on Apple mobile devices. In the near-term, it seems unlikely that Apple will remove Google search. But there’s no love lost between the two companies and the long-term remains uncertain. Apple made the difficult and painful decision to remove Google from their Map application. Changing the default search carrier sometime in the future seems like a very real possibility.

    It’s A Trap

    All of Android’s mobile activations don’t add up to a hill of beans if they can’t be monetized. And Android simply isn’t doing the job it was born to do.

    It’s a classic tech trap. Google provides a rapidly growing service that is popular with non-paying users while it constantly becoming less and less valuable to Google’s paying customers – the advertisers.

    The result is pernicious. More and more time, money, energy, attention and resources are devoted to Android while the return – a 15% decline in the price advertisers paid per click on a Google ad – continually becomes less and less.

    Next

    Android is struggling to monetize phones, but there is more to mobile than phones.

    Tomorrow: “The Battle for Tablets”

    Why Android Is Winning The Battles But Google Is Losing The War: Part 1

    A Pyrrhic victory (/ˈpɪrɪk/) is a victory with such a devastating cost that it carries the implication that another such victory will ultimately lead to defeat. The phrase “Pyrrhic Victory” is named after King Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered irreplaceable casualties in defeating the Romans at Heraclea in 280 BC and Asculum in 279 BC during the Pyrrhic War. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way; however, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit. The term “Pyrrhic victory” is used as an analogy in fields such as business, politics, and sports to describe struggles that end up ruining the victor. ~ via Wikipedia

    Series Schedule:

  • Mon: The Battle for the PC
  • Tue: The Battle for Mobile Phones Won
  • Wed: The War for Mobile Phones Lost
  • Thu: The Battle for Tablets
  • Fri: Picking Your Battles Is As Important as Winning Them
  • 1) The Battle For The PC

    A Glorious Victory

    Google began in January 1996 as a research project by Larry Page and Sergey Brin. While conventional search engines ranked results by counting how many times the search terms appeared on the page, they theorized about a better system that analyzed the relationships between websites. They called this new technology PageRank, where a website’s relevance was determined by the number of pages, and the importance of those pages, that linked back to the original site. via Wikipedia

    The Battle for search on the PC (notebooks and desktops) was a glorious victory for Google. Seldom has a company come so far, so fast, made so much money and so utterly anihilated their competition. By 2006, Google dominated search and was one of the largest, fastest growing companies on the planet. Their PC search strategy had proven to be brilliant and they were virtually printing money.

    I can give Google no greater compliment than this: They make their money by distributing ADVERTISING, yet they are liked by most and even loved by many. The words “amazing” and “awe-inspiring” don’t even begin to cover that achievment.

    All Glory Is Fleeting

    Sic transit gloria mundi

    But Google had two problems, which were really one and the same problem: “peak” and “mobile”.

    Many of us are familiar with the concept of “peak oil”. It’s a term used to describe the fact that oil production had to, at some point in time, peak because there was only a finite amount of oil in the ground and once that peak was reached there must inevitably be a steady, albeit gradual, decline in oil production.

    An equivelent peak is occuring in computing. In fact, two peaks: “peak PC” and “peak search”, both of which raise serious issues for Google.

    For eight straight quarters, search was growing. Then for three straight quarters, that growth deaccelerated. Then last quarter, something happened that had never happened before. People searched less. We have reached peak search.

    Ben Schachter of Macquarie Securities noted this in a research note:

    Notably, total core organic searches declined 4 percent y/y, representing the first decline in total search volume since we began tracking the data in 2006. While this month marks the first y/y decline in total search volume, growth rates have been decelerating since February’s recent peak at 14 percent y/y growth (for the prior two years, growth rates were largely stable in the high single-digit to low double-digit range).


    Not only is search declining, the proft from search is declining too. “Cost-per-click” – how much advertisers pay on average when someone clicks on an ad – is down. Way down. In its third quarter 2012 earnings, Google reported that its cost per click was down 15 percent.

    Cost-per-click” – how much advertisers pay on average when someone clicks on an ad – has been dropping for the past four quarters, after rising for eight previous quarters. Surrounding circumstances make it clear that there is no reason to expect it to rise again.

    Why is peak search happening and why now?

    First, there are fewer and fewer PCs. Like peak oil, we’ve reached peak PC. The PC market is in permanent decline. In fact, the PC market is not only declining, it may be headed for a cliff. (See Tim Bajarin’s fine article on “How the iPad Mini Could Impact Future PC Sales.”)

    Second, the search market is maturing. The places where people are going online just don’t pay as much as they used to.

    Third, less and less people are doing their searches on their desktops and more and more peole are doing them on their mobile devices. When it comes to search, the portability of the mobile device trumps the power of the PC.

    Smartphones have been outselling PCs (notebooks and desktops) since the end of 2010 and by the end of 2012, tablets will make up over 25% of all PC sales. Further, well respected mobile analyst, Mary Meeker believes the global smartphone plus tablet install base will surpass the install base of the PC by the end of Q2 2013.

    Fourth, and finally, try this thought experiment. You’re standing by your PC. You want to know the weather, the score of the big game, where a movie is playing or a local place to eat and how to get there (GPS). Do you perform the search on your PC or on your phone? For more and more people, this is an activity that you do on your mobile device, even when your PC is readily available.

    AUTHOR’S ASIDE: Ya gotta love Microsoft’s play in the desktop search industry. They are losing BILLIONS on Bing, buying into the desktop search market just as it has peaked and started its decline. What a company.

    Now it’s not such a bad thing to be dominating a market that is just past its peak. It means that you’ll be getting great income – nearly as much as you’re getting today – for a long while yet to come. But it also means that your’ve got no longterm future. Unless you plan for one. Which Google did.

    Next

    Tomorrow: “The Battle for Mobile Phones Won.”

    Upside Down Analysis

    These thoughts via Business Insider:

    According to estimates from Canaccord Genuity, Samsung has shot further ahead of the pack as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, shipping 56.3 million units in the third quarter.

    Apple’s consolation is that it still takes a larger share of industry profits, despite shipping approximately half as many units as Samsung.

    Today’s analysis of the mobile industry makes my head hurt because it is analysis turned on its head. In business, profits are not the consolation prize. Profits are the ONLY prize.

    Sheesh.

    Windows 8’s Greatest Sin

    Anyone who is in business knows that once you have made a sale, you want the next sale to become as seamless and as automatic as possible. This is why newspapers and magazines push subscriptions so heavily and why so many services, like cable, phone, electricity, etc, rely so heavily upon monthly billing. They know that customers are far more likely to continue buying their goods or services from their existing provider if the purchase of those goods or services becomes routine and automatic. When the customer is given no chance to re-think or re-evaluate their decision, there is far less liklihood that they will change that decision.

    Perhaps Windows 8’s greatest sin is that it is going to force Microsoft’s current customers to have to re-decide; to re-evaluate; to re-think their current purchasing decision. And if you’re the incumbant, that’s never a good thing.

    Netflix

    Netflix started a website that rented videos and delivered those videos to its customers by mail. Netflix introduced the monthly subscription concept to their service in September 1999 and dropped the single-rental model in early 2000. Since that time, the company has built its reputation on the business model of flat-fee, unlimited rentals without due dates, late fees, shipping or handling fees, or per title rental fees. ~ via Wikipedia

    Netflix continued to expand their services by offering streaming video rentals. At the base level, Netflix was charging its customers a flat $10 for both its mail and streaming videos. Then Netflix committed a cardinal sin.

    In the fall of 2011, Netflix dramatically changed its pricing. Customers could no longer continue to pay $10 and get both the mail and streaming services. Customers had to choose between paying $8 for the mail service or $8 for the streaming service or $16 for both. This forced Netflix’ customers to re-evaluate their subscription plans. And when they chose, many of them chose to cancel their subscriptions altogether.

    On October 24, 2011, Netflix announced it had lost 800,000 US subscribers in the third quarter of 2011 and that more subscriber losses were expected.

    Netflix’ decision hardly killed the company but it unnecessarily cost them approximately a million subscribers. By forcing their customers to re-evaluate and re-think their previously automatic decisions, they gave their customers the worst option of all – the option to opt out of their Netflix subscription altogether.

    Windows Upgrades Were the Surest of Sure Things

    Microsoft’s Windows has had a virtual monopoly on personal computing since the mid-ninties. Windows software comes bundled with most new PCs, so the vast majority of operating system upgrades were invisible, automatic and virtually painless.

    There were fewer sure bets than that those who owned a Windows PC were going to buy another Windows PC. The only question was “when”. For most, seeking an alternative to Windows simply didn’t even enter into their minds.

    Windows 8 Will Cause Hesitation

    A new study by Forrester Research — as reported by Social Barrel — shows that only 33% of companies who responded to their new survey have plans to move to Windows 8, Microsoft’s latest upgrade of its operating system.

    Ten percent of the respondents have no intention at all to upgrade. The remaining 40% of the survey respondents stated that they have no plans of upgrading to Windows 8 yet.

    “Social Barrel” says the percentage decline is “massive” in comparison with companies that intended to shift to Windows 7 when it launched in 2009. At that time, 67% of the companies that participated in a Forrester survey intended to shift to Windows 7, with 28% either not considering the update or are totally skipping it. ~ MacNews

    Windows Users Have Other Options

    It’s a whole new computing world out there. In 2006, there were only PCs and a smattering of smartphones and tablets. In 2012, we have:

    — Mobile devices outselling PCs
    — The Mac and the iPad seen as perfectly mainstream
    — Bring Your Own Device and computer decision making moving from the home to the workplace rather than from the workplace to the home
    — iPad’s viewed as all the computer that some people need

    Last week – two days before Windows 8 was announced – Apple introduced a new iPad Mini. But, in a surprise move, Apple also updated their third generation iPad to a fourth generation, and refreshed almost their entire Mac line.

    Do you think that was coincidental? Or do you think that Apple was offering Windows’ existing users a clear alternative to Windows 8?

    If I’m Going To Have To Learn A New User Interface Anyway…

    Windows 8 is remarkable, daring, and innovative. But it’s also a departure from nearly everything that Windows’ customers have known Windows to be. Windows 8 is a radical makeover. It forces people to relearn how to use their computers.

    And if customers have to re-learn how to user their computers anyway, then they might as well consider learning a new operating system. Like a Mac or an iPad.

    If I’m Going To Have To Buy New Computer Hardware Anyway…

    Windows 8 is designed for a touchscreen.

    And if customers have to buy new computer hardware anyway, then they might as well consider buying a new type of computer. Or tablet. Like a Mac or an iPad.

    If I’m Going To Have To Decide Which Type Of Computer To Buy Anyway…

    Microsoft thinks it is giving its customer’s choice, but what it is really doing is foisting decisions upon its user base.

    — Windows RT or Windows 8 Tablet?
    — Surface or one of a plethora of thrid party hardeware options?

    In the abstract, choice is always good. But when you’re trying to get an existing customer to re-buy from you, extensive decision making is the last thing you want.

    If the customer has to decide between this Surface and that, between Arm and x86, between phablets and laplets, then the customer might just decide to exit the Windows ecosystem altogether. Because once you start to think about your options, you start to think about ALL your options, not just the options made available by Microsoft.

    Conclusion

    When you have an existing customer, the worst sin you can commit is to force that customer re-evaluate their past buying decisions. I’m quite sure that Windows 8 is going to sell a LOT of computers. However, many of those computer purchases may end up being Macs or iPads.

    Microsoft’s Surface: Less Than A Tablet, Less Than A Notebook PC, Less Than Ideal

    Introduction

    I hadn’t planned on writing a review of the Surface today. But after reading over a dozen reviews, a pattern has clearly emerged:

    — Excellent hardware
    — Not as good a tablet as the iPad
    — Not as good a PC as a notebook PC

    The Promise

    But perhaps none of that matters. The Surface, after all, wasn’t designed to be only a tablet or only a notebook PC. It was designed to be a hybrid – the best of both worlds. Perhaps it succeeds in that role?

    As Josh Topolsky of The Verge put it:

    The promise of the Surface was that it could deliver a best-in-class tablet experience, but then transform into the PC you needed when heavier lifting was required. Instead of putting down my tablet and picking up my laptop, I would just snap on my keyboard and get my work done.

    The Surface won’t satisfy the tablet user

    The Good

    It’s clear that Microsoft has really thought through the Windows RT tablet software.

    It’s a new paradigm, and people are uncomforable with new, but new isn’t necessarily bad. And the Windows RT “new” appears to be very, very good indeed.

    It’s not as discoverable as iOS and Android, and it will receive criticism for that but discoverability isn’t everything. Some of the gestures in Windows 8 are brilliantly implemented. Many of the reviewers found it to be more engaging, more immersive, more delightful than either iOS or Android.

    In that way, I believe that Windows RT for the tablet will be like Android on the phone – it will appeal to the more advanced users who will love it for the power that it unlocks.

    The Bad

    There is absolutely no reason to have a desktop OS on the Surface RT tablet. The Surface RT doesn’t even run desktop applications, so why bother?

    Almost all of the reviewer’s complaints stemmed from the schizoid nature of the dual operating systems. Sometimes you were in tablet mode. Then suddenly you were in desktop mode. There were two control panels and two Internet Explorers. In short, there were two too many operating systems in one device, especally when that one device didn’t even run Windows desktop software.

    The Ugly

    The Windows RT store is barren. Could this change? Possibly. But until it does, you’ve bought a tablet that doesn’t have any available tablet apps. And that’s going to make you very un-app-y.

    The Surface won’t satisfy the notebook PC user

    The only Windows desktop software that the Surface RT runs is Windows Office. That’s it.

    There are over 4,000,000 applications that run on Windows. The Surface RT falls 3,999,999 applications short of being an adequate notebook PC. And that’s really short of ideal.

    The Surface won’t satisfy its ideal user

    Ed Bott, of ZDnet, describes the ideal Surface RT user:

    On a busy Sunday evening a few weeks ago, I was sitting in Terminal 4 of the Phoenix Sky Harbor airport waiting for a connecting flight. The guy sitting next to me was clearly an experienced business traveler.

    I watched out of the corner of my eye as he pulled an iPad from his briefcase, checked some football scores, and played Words with Friends for a few minutes.

    Then he put the iPad away and pulled out a well-worn Dell notebook (I swear it had duct tape on one corner). He waited (more patiently than I would have) for Windows XP to load, and then he worked on an Excel spreadsheet for 30 minutes until our flight was called.

    That guy. The one who has to carry around two devices because neither one by itself can do everything that needs to be done. That’s who Microsoft’s new Surface with Windows RT was designed for.

    First let me say this: There aren’t as many of those guys out there as we think. There are a whole lot of people who only need a notebook. And, as I tried to explain in my article entitled: “The PC is the Titanic and the Tablet is the Iceberg. Any Questions?“, there are even more people who only need a tablet.

    But even if they are only a niche, there are still a sizable minority of people who fall into the above description of the Surface’s ideal user. And the most damning thing that I can say about the Surface is that it won’t satisfy it’s own ideal user.

    — He’ll go to check on some football scores and then be frustrated that he doesn’t have access to one of a dozen available alternatives to the official ESPN app.

    — He’ll go to play a game and then be frustrated that he can’t play any one of the 300,000 games available on Android or the game that everyone’s been talking about and that’s been available on iOS for over a year.

    — He’ll go to run a Windows application and then remember that the Office suite are the only Windows applications that run on his device.

    That guy. The one who has to carry around two devices because neither one by itself can do everything that needs to be done. The ideal customer for the Windows RT. That’s the guy who will be totally unsatisfied with the Windows RT.

    Less than a tablet, less than a PC, less than ideal

    Microsoft calls the Windows 8 operating system and the Surface RT a “no compromise” computing solution. But this tablet is such a compromise that it will satisfy no one – not even it’s intended target audience.

    Ironically, it is the software, not the hardware, that is letting Microsoft – the software company – down. And that’s too bad because it would have been much better for Microsoft if it had been the other way around. It’s possible that another hardware partner would have fixed any deficienies in the Surface’s hardware. But no matter how good the hardware, it will still be running the Windows RT operating system. And that’s far from ideal.

    Windows 8: Microsoft Is Betting The Company

    I am one of those who thinks that this week is a seminal moment in computing history. The introduction of Windows 8 is the most important time for Microsoft since the launch of Windows 95. Microsoft’s actions – and the buying public’s response to those actions – is going to change the future of Microsoft – and the future of computing – forever.

    Microsoft will survive…

    Let’s take a step back and put things in perspective. Microsoft makes – and will continue to make – a lot of money.

    Microsoft is really an enterprise company. It makes much of its money from business customers with products like Windows Server, management software, SQL databases and development tools. Those businesses are doing well. Further, Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 7 and the Microsoft Office suite. Microsoft will have most enterprises locked up with agreements for three to five more years. Finally, Microsft is sitting on $60 billion in cash. It has deep, deep pockets.

    However, personal computing is no small part of Microsoft’s business. Windows makes up 25% and Microsoft Office makes up 35% of Microsoft’s total sales and a much greater percentage of its profits.

    …but their future in personal computing is not assured

    There are those who argue that Microsoft has plenty of time, plenty of money, plenty of chances to fix Window 8 even if it goes astray. I couldn’t disagree more.

    Did time, money and opportunity allow Microsoft to fix the Zune? Or Windows Phone 7?

    Windows 8 on the desktop may or may not do well. But Windows 8 is all about Microsoft’s efforts to transfer their desktop user base to the tablet and smartphone markets. Mobile is the future of computing and Microsoft has absolutely nothing going on in mobile. If Windows 8 does not kick-start Microsoft’s mobile efforts, Microsoft will have missed the boat for good and no amount of time, effort or resources will allow them to swim fast enough to catch up.

    Microsoft knows this. They remember well the PC wars of the eighties. In those wars, they were the ones sailing into the sunset, leaving Apple and the Mac floundering in their wake. In today’s world, iOS and Android are the new Windows and Windows is the new Mac. And for Microsoft, that ain’t a pretty picture.

    If Windows 8 flounders, Microsoft will survive, but not as the same company we know today

    The times, they are a-changing. The decades old Windows-Intel empire is already crumbling. If Windows 8 doesn’t gain traction in mobile, it will be disastrous for Microsoft. We’re witnessing history – we just don’t know yet what the result of that history will be. October 2012 marks a new beginning for Microsoft’s mobile efforts. Or it marks the beginning of the end for Microsoft’s mobile efforts. By this time next year, we’ll know for sure – one way, or the other.

    Windows 8: Get Your Popcorn Ready…

    Welcome to Windows 8 week.

    On October 26th, Microsoft will be introducing Window 8. Actually, over the next week or so, Microsoft and its partners will be introducing:

    — Windows 8 OS for the desktop
    — Window 8 OS for Intel tablets
    — Third party tablet hardware to run Windows 8
    — Windows Office for Window 8 tablets
    — Windows RT OS for Arm Tablets
    — Windows Office for RT tablets
    — Windows RT Platform (Third-Party apps)
    — Third party tablet hardware to run Window RT
    — A new business model where makes the hardware that runs their Windows 8 software
    — Windows Surface – A Microsoft branded tablet that runs the Windows RT OS
    — Windows 8 OS for the phone
    — Third party phone hardware to run Windows 8

    Wow. That’s a lot of stuff and it’s happening all at once.

    Any one of the above items would have normally justified a major announcement by Microsoft. Taken all together, the above represents a fundamental shift in the way Microsoft – and the world – will view computing from this time forward.

    This launch is so large and so all encompassing that no one article could do it justice. So rather than try to create one article, we’re going to break this down into a series of articles and gather them together in a new section entitled: “A Series of Tech.Pinions.”

    Get your popcorn ready. It’s going to be quite a show.

    Rebuttal: Windows 8 “May Or May Not” Be The Disaster This Video Makes It Out To Be

    Steve Kovach at Business Insider has a few words of wisdom regarding Windows 8:

    Microsoft’s new operating system for PCs and tablets, Windows 8, will have a drastic new look.
    The Start menu you’re used to is gone, replaced by a touch-friendly menu of tiles that houses all your apps and settings.

    It’s going to be incredibly jarring for people to use at first.

    Tech pundit Chris Pirillo demonstrates that in a man-on-the-street video where he asks people to try Windows 8 for the first time. The results don’t look good for Microsoft. Almost every person in the video is extremely confused by the new Windows 8 interface.

    Does that mean Windows 8 is a flop?

    Nope.

    So far, I’m with Steve. Discoverability is not the same as usability. Microsoft’s radical new Windows 8 interface changes – particularly on the desktop – may be new but new isn’t necessarily bad. Features may be hard to discover at first – but learn a feature one time and you’ve probably learned it forever.

    I think we can all agree that the lack of discoverability on Windows 8 is going to cause some problems at first. But it’s the overall usability that matters most and I’m not going to judge that until I’ve seen how regular people – you know, people who are not first adopters like you and me – react.

    It’s at this point, however, that Steve and I part ways.

    This is how you push innovation forward. It’s going to be jarring and scary for novices. It’s going to take time for people to learn the new menus. But they’ll catch on.

    Hmm. Not so very sure about that. Sure, innovation CAN be jarring a scary. And jarring and scary is often the price we pay in order to move technology forward. But that doesn’t mean that we should pay that price if we don’t have to. So the question becomes, did Microsoft have to extract a price – or did they sacrifice discoverability on the desktop in order to forward their phone and tablet agendas?

    Imagine giving someone who has never seen and iPhone or Android device before and asking them to use it. That person would be just as confused as the people are in the video below.

    Say what now?

    Kids and total novices can use smartphones and tablets. Ninty-nine year old senor citizens use them. Baby’s use them. Heck, even cats and apes use them.

    As a friend on Twitter put it, “If every interface were designed by man-on-the-street committee we’d all still have Windows 3.1.”

    Yeah, about that. Maybe that’s not so very accurate. Or even a little bit accurate . Perhaps the way Steve’s friend on Twitter should have put it was: “If every interface were designed with the “man-on-the-street” in mind, we’d all be using iOS or Android.”

    Take a look at Pirillo’s video at the bottom of the the original article, here.

    It’s Time To Fix DMCA Takedowns

    Tech Dirt t-shirt
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    A few days ago, a teacher posted a copyright Pearson Education personality inventory on a blog at Edublogs.org. Pearson served a Digital Millennium Copyright Act notice, which set off a series of events that led to nearly 1.5 million student and teacher blogs going temporarily dark after Edublogs’ hosting service took its servers offline. (You can read the details of the affair in this Techdirt account. By Oct. 16, Edublogs was back up, apparently with a new hosting service.)

    My purpose isn’t to defend or attack Pearson–plenty of others have done that–or even to rail against DMCA, which is full of both useful and ridiculous provisions. But its clear that a section of the law that was created to protect web sites hosting third-party content has gone off the rails.

    DMCA requires site operators to take down copyright-infringing material at the request of the copyright holder. The key language, known as Section 512 or the safe harbor provision, is part of a compromise that bars infringement claims against sites such as YouTube as long as they make good-faith efforts to keep infringing content out and comply with takedown notices. It was this provision that allowed YouTube to fend off a suit by Viacom (still wending its way through appeals) charging massive copyright infringement. Without it, the whole idea of user-generated web content would long ago have collapsed under an assault of copyright suits.

    But there are problems with the whole DMCA takedown process and they are getting worse. To ensure safe harbor protection, many sites have turned to algorithms that hunt for infringing content and these programs make mistakes, lots of them. For example, YouTube blocked posts of Michele Obama’s speech to the Democratic National convention because the address had been carried in copyrighted network broadcasts.

    Content owners also use algorithms to hunt for infringement, and these too have caused trouble. Earlier this month, a Microsoft infringement-hunter went a bit crazy and sent Google 440,000 takedown requests, including pages posted by Wikipedia, the BBC, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Aggressive copyright enforcement backed by takedown requests has targeted political advertising.  Some of this is legitimate, if perhaps unwise;  copyright holders have the right to disapprove the use of their material in ads.  But much, including network objections to the use of news clips and BMG’s attempt to block airing of ads featuring President Obama singing an Al Green song, stomp on the fair use exemption built into copyright law. (The Center for Democracy & Technology has a good analysis of the problem. It was written during the 2010 election season, but applies as well to this year.)

    On the whole, the Section 512 and the DMCA takedown process has worked reasonably well at balancing interests, but there is evidence that the playing field is starting to tilt toward rights holders. I think some relatively  modest reforms are needed to restore balance (even though I am always reluctant to propose any copyright law changes on the principle  that the law almost always emerges from Congress in worse shape than it went in.)

    First, we need a way to minimize collateral damage. Takedowns should be limited to to pages containing infringing material and the practice of taking down whole sites because of a small amount of potential infringement must stop. In the case of Edublogs, the takedown came after the site operator, wpmu.org, had blocked the offending post but had accidentally left a copy in a server cache. The  hosting service just did the quickest and simplest thing and pulled down the whole site.

    Second, the practice of making sweeping takedown requests at the least hint of infringement needs to be reined in by penalizing false or overbroad claims. Section 512(f) of DMCA makes it possible to recover damages for a takedown that “knowingly materially misrepresents” a claim. But the law sets a very high bar for such recovery and it simply is not a viable alternative for a blogger, or anyone much smaller than YouTube, to bring a damages case against, say, Warner Bros. We need a more effective way to discourage over broad takedown requests and to compensate victims of false claims.

    Copyright law, and intellectual property law in general, is all about striking a balance, weighing the rights of content producers against those of users and consumers. In recent years, the debate has been dominated by copyright maximalists, who want to restrict fair use into oblivion, and minimalists, who believe copyright is evil in principle or who think that fair use is whatever use they wish to make. Both are wrong, and they stand in the way of reasonable solutions.

     

     

     

     

    The Microsoft Surface Was Made For Surfaces…But That’s Not What Tablets Were Made For

    The first Microsoft Surface Ad is out. It’s called “The Surface Movement” (although it probably should be called “Click”). In his article entitled: Marketing Surface and Windows 8, Ben Bajarin focuses on what the ad communicates to potential buyers. My focus is on what the ad communicates about Microsoft’s attitude toward tablets.

    HOW MICROSOFT DEFINES A TABLET

    Even before the ad aired, industry observers had picked up a theme:

    The message we seem to be getting from Microsoft with its Surface tablets is that you need a keyboard with your slate to take full advantage of Windows. ~ James Kendrick, ZDNet

    Microsoft is really is focusing on the keyboard as what enables the Surface to work equally well for consumption and creation. ~ Mary Jo Foley, CNet

    It’s all about the keyboard and it’s all about using the keyboard on a flat surface.

    WHAT DEFINES A MICROSOFT SURFACE

    The Microsoft surface has five characteristics that distinguish it from the iPad:

    — Windows 8 user interface;
    — Windows desktop applications;
    — Kickstand;
    — Upturned rear-facing camera; and
    — Attachable keyboard.

    The last four of those five characteristics are most useful when employed on a flat surface…

    …but that’s not what tablets were made for.

    WHAT DEFINES A TABLET

    The tablet has two defining characteristics: It is touchable and totable.

    The tablet was made for standing, and walking; for moving from room to room, and moving from door to door; for sitting back and leaning forward; for remote locations and touch occasions. The tablet was made to be touched and toted. The Surface was made for a surface.

    The Microsoft Surface goes on sale on October 26th. We’ll soon see what really defines a tablet.

    Battle Of The Tablet Business Models: Samsung Galaxy Tab

    RECAP

    We’re looking at the tablet business models of Apple, Amazon, Google, Samsung and Microsoft. Today we focus on the Samsung Galaxy Tab.

    4.0 Samsung Galaxy Tab

    4.1 WHERE DOES THE SAMSUNG GALAXY TAB MAKE ITS MONEY?

    When introducing the new Amazon tablets, Jeff Bezos said:

    “We want to make money when people use our devices, not when they buy our devices.”

    Samsung licenses its software for free from Google and, like Apple, they make their money when people buy their tablets. Unlike Amazon and Google, Samsung makes little or no money from the sale of content or apps. Unlike Microsoft, Samsung makes no money from the licensing of an operating system.

    4.2 WHERE DOES THE SAMSUNG GALAXY TAB PROVIDE VALUE?

    Samsung tablets provide value in (at least) three ways.

    First, their hardware is generally very good. It may or may not be of the quality of Apple but it is certainly more than good enough.

    Second, since Samsung gets their operating system software from Google for free, and since Samsung is an extremely efficient manufacturer, they can often offer their tablets for lower or comparable prices.

    The above advantages are somewhat mitigated by the fact that Samsung has to pay Microsoft a licensing fee for the use of Android. Also, Apple’s supply chain prowess has allowed Apple to order supplies in such great quantities that they’ve been able to keep their prices quite low. Still, on the whole, Samsung tablets are almost always available at equal or lower prices than that of the competition.

    Third, Samsung has excellent distribution. This should not be underestimated. The greatest device in the world is of no value to the consumer if it’s not sold in their country or if it’s priced out of their financial reach.

    Samsung’s tablets provide value because they are well made, inexpensive (but not cheap) and available most everytwhere.

    4.3 SAMSUNG GALAXY TAB BUSINESS MODEL ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

    Despite Samsung’s many strengths, their business model for tablets is a disaster and it must frustrate the life out of them. Samsung’s hardware, prices and distribution are excellent but it just doesn’t matter.

    First, Samsung gets their Android operating system software from Google for free, and while Android has proven to be an excellent smartphone operating system it is not optimal for tablets. There is a fundamental difference between an app designed for a smaller (3.5 to 5 inch) screen and an app designed for a larger (9.5 to 11 inch) tablet screen. Google’s stubborn refusal to optimize their software in order take advantage of the tablet’s larger screen size has crippled the larger screened Android tablets. For more on this, please see my article entitled: “With Apps, Size Matters.”

    Second, while Apple, Amazon and Google make money from the sale of content and apps, Samsung does not.

    Third, since Google supplies the Android operating system to Samsung, Samsung has no control over the store and no control over the platform. Samsung can do nothing to make the store more attractive for their customers or make the platform more attractive for developers. Samsung is wholly reliant upon, and wholly at the mercy of, Google. This is even more unfortunate for Samsung because Google has proven to be an indifferent steward of the Android store and platform.

    Fourth and finally, with the introduction of the Google Nexus 7, Google – the licensor of the Android operating system software – is now a direct competitor to Samsung. And since Google has decided to subsidize the price of their product, they’ve completly undercut Samsung’s tablet business model. Unlike Google, Samsung can’t make up lost sales revenues with the subsequent sales of content and apps. With Google selling the Nexus 7 for $200, Google has made it all but impossible for Samsung to sell their $400 to $500 tablets.

    Summation

    Samsung is a proud and powerful company but I don’t know how much longer they can continue to compete in the tablet market. They are being attacked from above by Apple, below by Amazon and Google and soon Microsoft will be entering the fray. And Samsung has no competitive advantages. They can compete against Apple on hardware and software but not on ecosystem. They can compete against Amazon and Google on hardware and software but not on price. And the things that Samsung needs to change in order to be competitive – content, apps, ecosystem – are entirely out of their control.

    Samsung is simply in a no-win situation.

    NEXT

    We’ve now looked at the Apple, Amazon, Google and Samsung tablet business models. Next week, we look at Microsoft’s Surface tablet and wrap up the series.

    My Favorite Things About iOS 6

    Having used every version of iOS and Android since inception, I am always very excited to jump on the latest and greatest smartphone operating system.  You see, operating systems say as much about a company and about the future as it says about what’s important now.  While this isn’t a deep analysis on OS mind reading, I wanted to share with you my initial thoughts on Apple’s iOS 6 for the iPhone and iPad.

    There are elements about  Android and iOS that I like.  None of these operating systems is perfect, but each has things that I really like and is valuable to its different kinds of users.  iOS 6 is no different in that there are certain things I really like about it.

    1. Do Not Disturb: Ironically, my favorite thing about iOS 6 isn’t about what it enables me to do, but what it enables me not to do.  My phone is my alarm clock and it was very annoying at 2am when it would start buzzing due to someone in China posting on my Google+ wall or getting other notofocations.  Well, no more.. one button means bliss.
    2. VIP inbox: This is a special sort on important people.  Like many, I get about 200 emails a day but refuse to let it run my life.  The VIP mail “sort” enables me to instantly see the most important messages from the most important people, like my wife.  And clients, of course.
    3. Improved Message Sync– I have two iPads and my iPhone so iMessage synchronization is key.  iOS 5 was a bit spotty, but iOS 6 has been spot on so far.  Thank you Apple.
    4. Reply with Message: Like many, my work day includes bouncing between calls, desk time, and driving.  When I’m on a  call and a client calls, I want them to know that I will get right back to them.  With “Reply with Message”, its only two presses and I can SMS and message I like.
    5. Facebook Integration: Instead of opening the Facebook app to share something, it is now built into the core of the OS. This means saving time, clicks, and contacts integration.  Even though Android and webOS had this for a long time, it still doesn’t diminish it as a good feature.
    6. Shared Photo Streams- This will be huge in my family as almost everyone in the family has an iPhone or iPod and we love sharing pictures.  I will probably use this for more personal photo sharing versus pulling me away from Facebook, Twitter, or Google+.
    What about Maps, Siri, Camera, and Passbook?
    Apple made some changes to Maps, Siri and added a new app called Passbook.
    • Maps- I use both an Android and iOS phone (sometimes Windows Phone) at the same time to always compare and contrast the experiences.  I’ve always been happy with the maps on Android devices as it had turn by turn directions that were very accurate.  The Apple maps function so far has worked so-so (my kid’s school missing) in my little town of Austin and I have a heard a lot of chatter about others having some issues. Steve Wildstrom does a good job of covering some of the Apple maps challenges here.
    • Panorama Mode- I’ve been taking panoramic pictures for a long time.  Before adding the feature ti iOS 6, I just used Microsoft’s Photosynth app that’s been available in the App Store  for a long time.
    • Siri- There has been a lot of research done that says on the whole mainstream consumers are happy with Siri.  In my n=1 research, I have never been thrilled with Siri’s ability to determine what I am saying.  I haven’t yet noticed a sharp improvement in this capability, either, but others, like Tim Bajarin, have.  My bar is set quite high as I am in the car over two hours a day and want to do a lot of voice texting and dictation. Because of Siri’s lack of accuracy with my voice, I am not planning on using the additional database capabilities like sports score, movie times and restaurant reservations.  But I am sure others will love it.
    • Passbook- Think of Passbook as the one digital place for all those annoying paper items or bonus and discount cards that I always manage to misplace.  Apple says you can put airline tickets, movie tickets, coupons, loyalty cards and more.  I am very excited about this feature as I am paperless.  Unfortunately I cannot get it to work, and as of this writing, I keep getting error messages.  I’m not the only one with this challenge as I have seen many Twitter posts on the same thing.I have researched this and don’t have a fix yet, but will update this as soon as I do.
    All in all, I am happy with iOS 6 on my iPhone 4s.  No, it’s not “swing me around the room” amazing, but it didn’t have to be for me to still like iOS.  I prefer Android’s open content sharing mechanisms, notifications, and live pages more than what iOS has to offer, but not enough to switch my primary device off of my iPhone.

     

    For Apple’s iOS Owners, It’s Christmas In September

    On Wednesday, September 19, 2012 iOS 6 will go live. For tech devotees, this is old news. But for the vast majority of iOS (iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad) users, iOS 6 will deliver about 200 gifts – some big and some small – to make their i-devices a bit more fun, a bit more useful, a bit more valuable.

    If adoption goes as it did with iOS 5, we can expect to see iOS 6 on 60% or more of all iOS devices – including the now three year old iPhone 3GS – within a month or so. Due mostly to hardware constraints, not every device will support all the additions but all the devices will support the vast majority of the additions.

    Compare that to Android. As of this date here are the adoption percentages for Android’s three most recent operating system updates:

    — 01.2% Jelly Bean
    — 20.9% Ice Cream Sandwich
    — 77.0% Gingerbread or older

    What good does it do Android to add great new features to their operating system if they can’t deliver those features to their users? It’s like buying Christmas presents and never letting anyone open them.

    Operating System adoption is one of iOS’s greatest strengths and one of Android’s greatest weaknesses. When it comes to operating system updates, Apple is a bit of a Santa Claus…and Google is a bit of a Scrooge.

    The iPad Is Selling like Mad And Making The Competition Sad

    At the iPhone 5 event held on Wednesday, September 12, 2012, Tim Cook announced these facts regarding iPads:

    1) Last quarter, Apple sold 17 million iPads.
    2) Apple sold more iPads than any PC manufacturer sold of their entire PC lineup.
    3) Apple has sold a total of 84 million iPads since its launch in April 2010, less than two and a half years ago.
    4) Competitors have launched hundreds of tablets to compete with the iPad. One year ago, the iPad had 62% market share. Today the iPad’s lead has grown to 68% market share.

    Five Observations:

    First, all the action, all the growth in computing is in mobile devices. As for the future of computing, in my opinion, smartphones will have the bigger numbers, but tablets will have the bigger impact.

    Second, neither Apple, nor HP, nor Dell, nor Lenovo, nor Acer, nor any one else who makes a living selling computing hardware cares a whit about whether you call the iPad a PC, a computer, a media tablet or a toy. That’s all just meaningless semantics. What they do care about is that Apple is selling more and more $500 (and up) devices while they are selling less and less.

    “Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value” ~ Marshal Ferdinand Foch

    Third, Apple is just crushing the competition in this all-important new category. Starting with nearly 100% market share in 2010, it was inevitable that Apple’s overall market share would drop as seemingly every other manufacturer on the planet started selling this new, and rapidly growing form factor. So to see Apple’s market share GROWING after a two and a half year span is simply mind blowing.

    Fourth, Google – and therefore Android – has, in my opinion, completely missed the boat in tablet computing. Andy Rubin and Google stubbornly refuse to acknowledge that there is a fundamental difference between smartphone apps and tablet apps:

    “I don’t think there should be apps specific to a tablet…if someone makes an ICS app it’s going to run on phones and it’s going to run on tablets.” ~ Andy Rubin

    Apple just announced that there are over 250,000 iPad specific apps in their store. Developers don’t create apps for kicks and buyers don’t buy iPad specific apps for no reason. There is a difference between a smartphone app and a tablet app. Apple gets it. Google doesn’t.

    Android tablet manufacturers have paid the price for Google’s misstep as the lack of tablet specific Apps has cut the ground out from under their tablet efforts.

    And with the introduction of the Google Nexus 7, Google has all but ended any hope that any Android manufacturer – other than Google – can make a profit on Android powered tablets.

    Fifth, when you see the above numbers, you can see how very desperately Microsoft wants and needs to be in this sector. Microsoft Windows rules the notebook and desktop markets but they have nothing going on in phones and tablets…yet.

    Conclusion

    The future of computing is in tablets. And right now, Apple owns that future.

    Why The New iPhone Will Be Roundly Panned And Why It Will Still Sell Like Crazy

    What would you say the new iPhone’s greatest feature or features will be? Will it be the hardware? The operating system? A new service like maps or passbook? Nope. It won’t be any of those things. The truth is, the new iPhone’s greatest feature already exists right now, today, before the iPhone has even been announced.

    The greatest thing about the new iPhone will be the very same thing that Apple’s customers love about their current iphones – every added feature will work seamlessly with the whole. The iPhone is not about its parts, it’s about making the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

    PUZZLED PUNDITS

    Analysts, journalists, and industry observers always seem bewildered by this.

    They’ll look at the new iPhone and say: “It’s the same old design” or “It doesn’t have as many features as my phone does” or “Its operating system is looking old and dated” or “It doesn’t allow me the freedom to run any content or any app I want”. Then they will be dumbfounded that a phone that they’ve deemed wanting will have such stellar sales. “That can’t be right,” they’ll say. “That phone is inferior to mine. It’s not rational. iPhone customers must not be rational. iPhone customers must be stupid.”

    PARADOX RESOLVED

    Here’s the resolution to the seeming paradox that haunt’s the iPhone’s critics: Apple doesn’t WANT the phone with the best features – they want the phone with the features that work best together. It’s not about the quantity of features, it’s about the quality of the experience.

    SATISFACTION

    Pundits may not get this, but iPhone users sure do. They consistently give the iPhone satisfaction ratings so high that they are in nose bleed territory.

    UNDERSTANDING

    With the iPhone, it’s not about how the features work, it’s about how the features work together; it’s not about any one thing, it’s about the whole thing; it’s not about the phone, it’s about the Apple ecosystem. The critics may not see it that way, but the potential buyers sure do. The secret to understanding the iPhone is to understand that people aren’t buying a phone they’re buying Apple. And that makes all the difference.