Industry Shaping Trends That Emerged from CES

CES generally takes a beating from the pundits as they see it as a place where lots of technology is exhibited that often never sees the light of day. CES is, undoubtedly, an exhibition of engineering and there is a reason companies display feats of engineering that may never see the light of day. Sometimes that is to demonstrate leadership; sometimes, it is to help them challenge their engineers to commercialize an invention or innovation that may serve the company sometime later down the road. And, yes, there are often many wild ideas that money should never have been spent developing. All things considered, if you spend the time to look above that noise on the things that may shape the industry, CES is a great place to get a 1000 ft view of the industry and draw some conclusions. That is generally what I do, and I’d like to share a few of my thoughts.

Auto Manufacturers Remain Clueless
CES has had automobiles on the show floor for as long as I’ve been going since the early 2000s. Those auto manufacturers were showing innovation in audio, and all these cars and exhibits were in a dedicated audio section of the convention. Now, nearly every car manufacturer is at CES showing not just concept cars, but how entertainment, connectivity, autonomy, and more will make it to their vehicles. The problem? The user experience, user interface, and overall implementation of many of these manufacturers continue to be some of the least consumer-friendly experiences in the world.

While it is clear that electric vehicles are a massive investment from auto-makers and along with that they are committed to autonomous solutions, it is crystal clear to me now that unless an entire people and process change don’t happen within traditional car manufacturers that they will all be disrupted by Tesla and new entrants.

The reality, and from my brief conversations with automotive industry insiders confirms, what auto manufacturers are completely failing to grasp is that cars are becoming computers. Car manufacturers have no idea how to make computers, and they are not computer companies yet that is what they have to become if they want to be successful.

For all the negative press Tesla seems to get, I heard it confirmed to me several times from people inside automotive companies that Tesla has them all spooked. The only thing holding Tesla back from knocking out some of the biggest car brands in the world is how crappy they are at manufacturing. If Tesla ever figures out how to mass manufacture with industry-leading quality and detail then watch out.

This point about manufacturing is why Detroit car companies and others around the world believe they have an advantage. Mass manufacturing quality cars is hard! But becoming turning your car into a computer and becoming a computer company is also hard! So both have a ways to go. If I’m making a few predictions at this point, I will offer that US car companies are in the most trouble. If anyone can figure out how to evolve and compete with Tesla is it likely more the Japanese and other Asian car companies.

This will be an interesting space to watch for a long time, and some of the most interesting inventions and innovation in automotive are still to come.

Peak Smart Home/ Smart Assistant
Well, we have hit it. It is inevitable everything will be connected, and everything will connect to the smart assistant of your choice, and that should no longer surprise us. We have hit peak smart home. Which is great because we can move past the initial work of connecting everything and start to focus on making all these things work together.

The biggest hurdle standing in the way of the smart home was connectivity standards. In that equation, the interface was still a challenge because each brand/appliance had its app and to control a smart home appliance was still several clicks deep in your smartphone. Voice assistants brought that to a single voice command away, and now we are off in the running. While some underlying connected standards have emerged, the most important standard how being supported by all smart home products is Alexa, Google Assistant, and Siri/HomeKit.

I have no doubt in my mind the smart assistant market is not a winner take all market. And after talking with Google, Amazon, and Apple about this as well, all three seem to agree. The belief is consumers have the intelligence to interact with each assistant for what they do best, and will use each accordingly. This is relevant because it seems that supporting all three assistants will be table stakes to compete for any company looking to make “smart” products. I put smart in quotes because none of these are smart yet. Hopefully, AI will be the component that takes all this technology from just being connected to smart, but even the AI being used now is rudimentary. We still have a long way to go.

The Future of Display are On.. Display
Attendees always marvel at the TVs at CES. For years it was simply HDTV on display. Then it was how big can I make my HDTV. Then we saw OLED show up and it was incredible to see for the first time, but it was a screen about 6 inches large. Then each year it was about how big can we make OLED screens. The last few years, foldable and foldable TVs emerged, and this year we saw huge rollable and foldable TVs. The reality, however, is what was important to grasp hidden in plain sight with these TV innovations is what was truly happening was the future of display technology was being shown.

Displays will be everywhere. Not just on our pockets, in our cars, all over our homes, in mirrors, in glass in our homes and office buildings, retail, etc. We are a visual species, and the Cambrian explosion of displays has not yet happened. But what we see as a technology showcase around displays at CES is an easy way to predict what the Cambrian explosion of displays is going to look like when it happens.

Robots, Drones, Autonomy, and AI are Closely Linked
Lastly, it is clear that drones, autonomy, robots, and AI are much more closely linked than previously realized. Innovation happening in all three has still not yet merged into a coherent product, but all these technologies are the foundation of the future of robotics. It is relevant to see the advances made in each category since nuggets of insight will come and give us clarity on the broader picture.

Drones are coming in all shapes and sizes now with underwater drones being the recent big showing at CES. Fascinating space to watch, with implications which may only be evident in hindsight.

What is key to all of this is an innovation cycle in components, being fueled by the sheer size of the consumer electronics industry which is evident at the size CES and the truly global movement of electronics. I’ve said for many years that the tech industry best times are still ahead and every year this show gives me confidence this is true.

Short term economics may consume the news cycle, and bring the appearance of technological slowdowns in pockets of the industry. But do not be fooled, in the future technology will deeply touch every single business industry in the world and every single business industry in the world will be a technology industry.

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Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

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