Is Apple making a Car? In Your Dreams!

There have been rumors flying around Apple has hired up to 50 Tesla employees to join a secret project. Some have speculated this project is an electric car that would compete with Tesla. Those of us who know Apple well hear this rumor and roll our eyes. That does not mean we don’t believe Apple is not very interested in cars. But building an actual car is not in Apple’s DNA. In this same vein, many think Apple is building their own TV. This too is not in Apple’s traditional capabilities.

A more likely scenario would be based on one key fact about Apple some people don’t understand. It goes back to one of Steve Jobs’ personal mantras — take a product such as the PC and make it easier to use and deliver a greater overall user experience tied to apps and services. That was at the heart of creating a graphical user interface for the first Mac. This philosophy is also applied to the way he and his teams designed the UI on the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad.

In each case, the product or hardware had existed for some time. What he did was make it easier to use, give it apps, content and services, and make sure it appealed to a broad audience. In other words, the hardware was just a vehicle (pun intended) to deliver these overall apps and services.

It is true that, in these cases, Apple had to create the actual hardware to serve as the receptacles for the apps and services. But the need to create an Apple Car is pretty farfetched given Apple’s core competencies. In this case, as well as the TV, it makes much more sense to work on a way to integrate a new and rich UI, apps and services for use in the car and on a TV than resorting to creating their own branded hardware in each of these categories.

For the car, I believe Apple is interested in creating a whole in-car digital experience that spans navigation, voice search, communications, media, and safety and wants to learn from what Tesla has done so far. That is why they poached so many Tesla employees. Ultimately they want to revolutionize the in-car navigation, audio/video, communication and safety features experience and work to get them integrated into future automobiles.

For Apple TV, it makes no sense for them to create their own given the TV market competition and the rapid change in TV hardware itself. However, Jobs had a major vision on how to revolutionize the TV navigation and user interface and deliver live and streaming content with integrated apps and services. That is most likely going to be delivered through a brand new Apple TV box I believe will be released later this year.

You can never rule out Apple doing something brand new in hardware and even in a new category of devices but doing an Apple branded ar or TV is just not in the cards.

However, it would not surprise me if Apple is creating a vehicle reference design in the form of an automobile shell. Or, for that matter, they could take an actual existing car and customize it to show off what this experience could be like. Apple could wait for the car makers to figure out how to integrate what they are doing into future car designs but it would be more productive if Apple created a working model of this that demonstrated and showed exactly what their future Car Play vision is an,d more importantly, how to actually implement it in future vehicle designs. If so, this could be where rumors of Apple creating a car may have come from.

This could also explain why some have seen an Apple vehicle driving around with a lot of cameras and sensors. Any new whole car digital experience would need to include cameras and sensors to delver innovative ways to navigate and get critical sensor related information in real time through having access to various apps and services that could be tied to cameras and sensors in future Car Play designs.

But the idea of Apple doing an actual branded vehicle or even a TV just does not make sense given who they are and what they do best.

Published by

Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc. He is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.

10 thoughts on “Is Apple making a Car? In Your Dreams!”

  1. When it comes to cars and technology, you could do worse than listening to Asymcar. The key observation in a recent episode was that the product cycle of a car is 3-5x as long as that of computer hardware and 5-10x as long as that of computer software.
    The design of a car gets locked in years before production starts, production partners are signed up, etc. So towards the end of a 5-year production run (with cosmetic upgrades), the hardware design will be at least 8 years old (an eternity). Making matters worse, a modern car will have a useful life of at least 10 years, that means that the design of the dashboard computer will on average be more that a decade old. So no wonder that the in-car electronics feel so 1990s.

    None of this will improve until the whole electronics package (navigation, entertainment, safety, sensors, etc) is made modular and replaceable. Having, say, two or three sets of electronics to keep a car fresh over the course it 10-15 year life is not all that outrageous.

    Becoming the provider of such electronics is in line with Apple’s core competencies, it keeps them away from the regulated aspects of car safety, keeps them away from the drudgery of running the manufacturing, and the market is big enough to be of interest. If they become the production partner of a relatively weak car manufacturer (i.e. a bit like the original deal with AT&T) then they might be onto something.

    Will they do it? I don’t know. Would they hire 50 engineers to figure out if it could be made to work. Sure, why not?

  2. I am not saying that you are wrong (that would be so presumptuous) but autonomous driving is going to completely reshape the world (economically, socially, technologically…) and it takes less than a billion dollars to become a car manufacturer so, even if it is not necessarily Apple’s DNA, I need other arguments to believe they won’t go down that road 🙂
    Don’t get me wrong, building a car is a very complex thing (I know, I work in this industry) but Tesla didn’t exist 15 years ago…
    And once autonomous driving happens, the infotainment experience becomes closer to the living room so…

  3. hmm…I seem to remember people saying Apple wasn’t going to do a watch either. That they would do a cheap band with a bunch of sensors ala Microsoft Band. Instead we get an 18-karat gold watch. Yeah a car seems highly unlikely but Apple makes its money off premium hardware. More and more of their software is free. Services like Apple Pay are free to boost iPhone sales. When we talk about the law of large numbers it’s hard to see revenue from services being able to move the needle enough.

  4. Let me preface that this is pure light hearted sarcasm.
    If Apple made a car…
    -It would only drive on routes that are permitted via the “Neighborhood Approval Process”.
    -It would only make right turns, after all, three rights make a left. Kinda the same reason for no forward delete on an Apple keyboard.
    -You could only juice it up at an Apple power station.
    -The Nav system would operate via Apple Maps (naturally). The vehicle would never be seen in Mountain View or Redmond.
    -You would have to steer it by rubbing your tummy in a circular motion. Accelerate by tapping your head. All while sitting in the lotus position. (Apple will sue Lotus for trademark for this reason)
    -Maximum speed will be 25 mph. Why would you “neeeeed” more than that?
    -Driver:Siri navigate to the Microsoft Store
    -Siri: I can do that Dave…
    -Driver: I said do so, and do it in a flash.
    -Siri: I don’t run Flash.
    -Driver : DO IT NOW!
    -Car explodes!
    OMG! When can I get one!
    😉

  5. I’ve been giving this some thought and I think an Apple Car may be in the works, but it’s probably not about self-driving cars but rather about batteries and power transmission.

    1.
    I strongly sense that Tim Cook is extremely environment conscious. Apple’s efforts into renewable energy, reducing the use of toxic components in their products are a key sign. Tim Cook also seems to think that the world’s largest company has an obligation to do more than produce the sexiest gadgets. Hence the companies efforts in human rights for their subcontractor’s work force. Tim Cook himself came out with being gay. I’m sure that Tim Cook feels that Apple can do more to reduce carbon emissions.
    2.
    Self-driving cars do not draw on Apple’s strengths. Even Google, which is much better than Apple on mapping, can still only drive their autonomous cars in very limited areas under favorable weather conditions. There is little reason to believe that Apple could do a better job.
    3.
    On the other hand, Apple has been doing a lot of work with batteries for the last decade. Given that the basic battery technology is the same for Apple’s devices and Tesla cars, and also considering that batteries are still not “good enough”, this is where I think Apple may have the technology to make a meaningful contribution. Although I have no data on hand, it is likely that Apple is one of the larrest users of Lion batteries. It makes sense that they would do something interesting about it.

    1. Good points. I wouldn’t rule out a car from Apple, electric of course and not self-driving. I hear a lot of people saying it’s too complex or too difficult to build a car. I wonder if any of those people have actually rebuilt engines or worked on heavy machinery of any kind? Vehicles are not that well-designed and are full of poor engineering and compromises. It’s a fairly low bar to beat in my opinion.

      1. I’m sure that building cars is very complex and the number of components involved is huge. However, my very limited understanding is that the engines and the power trains tend to be the components that are unique to each manufacturer, and a lot of the other parts are modular.

        That is to say, if you go full electric, I think it makes building a car much easier.

        1. There’s a lot of moving parts, certainly, but building a car isn’t that hard. Current vehicles aren’t that well built. Going electric certainly makes it simpler though, no combustion engine to deal with and that’s where a lot of the service issues are.

        2. Setting up an assembly line is a well understood science and not beyond the wit of man. What makes large scale manufacturing (e.g. cars, aircraft, high speed rail) such a challenge, is the need to set up an ecosystem of suppliers. You need to work with dozens (if not hundreds) of suppliers on the design of the components, often subsidise their R&D and tooling, agree competitive pricing (suppliers should be well off, but not get spectacularly rich), agree delivery times, etc. If you botch the supply chain or poorly organise the outsourcing then the costs and delays are enormous (I’m sure Boeing has a tale or two to tell about their Dreamliner manufacturing woes).
          In short, technology and design are one thing, but building up the out-of-company network for manufacturing and supply is where the business complexity comes in.

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