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My Researched Predictions for 2018

I’ve been writing a tech predictions column for over 30 years now. I study our research and look for trends and information that give me hints of what I believe might be the hot topics, trends or issues that will impact the tech industry in the coming year.
Here are what I believe will be some of the biggest trends and issues in tech for 2018:

Cyber Security Threats Become Even Worse
For the last five year’s I have led most of my informed prediction columns by making this particular observation. But in the past, I mostly noted that the cybercriminals were small groups or even dastardly individuals. But in 2017 we found that “state” actors have entered the scene with what appears backing from countries like North Korea, Russia, and China who have created actual “armies” of hackers to try and steal everything from nuclear secrets to bank codes, hacking into power grids and stealing from people both money and personal identity. It is not a stretch to predict that this will get even worse in 2018 now that these hacking armies have learned how to even game our systems and will be even more aggressive in the new year and especially as we head to mid-term elections next fall.

What makes this worse for us in America specifically is that we just don’t have enough security expert talent available to counter many of these major threats. Without that talent and newer and more powerful cybersecurity tools, our various banking, power grids, etc. continue to be highly vulnerable. I fear that this will lead to many new hacking disasters in 2018 and am not very optimistic that we can thwart all of the security threats that will be leveled at us next year.

The First Folding Smartphone
I have seen some very interesting prototypes during the latter part of 2017 that suggest we could see the first products that have what will loosely be called folding designs both in smartphones and tablets.

I think that these types of new foldable devices will have a significant impact in 2019. ZTE has a foldable smartphone out now but has little distribution in the US, and I consider this a good prototypical design of this idea. But we could see at least one foldable smartphone and one foldable tablet late in the new year from some major players and set in motion a new trend in mobile designs going into 2019.

Augmented Reality Will Not Have a Major Impact in 2018
Although Apple popularized the term and concept of Augmented Reality in 2017, it is pretty clear that augmented reality is more a work in progress than it is a serious impact product that touches our lives in big ways anytime soon.

Many had expected that since Apple introduced their AR Kit and Google AR Core mid-year, that we would see perhaps the first killer apps by the Holidays. As of now, I have not seen what I or anyone can call a killer app that will make AR something we can’t live without. I do think Apple and Google will gain grown]th in AR by using their smartphone platforms to get more people interested in the idea and concept of AR but I am becoming more and more convinced that for AR to really impact our lives that it will have to be delivered through some smart glasses and I don’t see models of these that would be consumer priced and consumer-friendly before 2020.

On a related issue, we do see some real activity in VR recently, but outside of its use in gaming, which is consumer friendly, the real interest in VR is in vertical markets. You should expect to see much more of an uptake in VR within these markets in 2018 as all types of industries are experimenting with VR technology to see how it could impact that their workflow and potential profitability.

Alway’s connected PC’s will Morph Into All Day Computers
MY PC Mag colleague Sasha Sagan and I were in Hawaii recently to attend Qualcomm’s launch event for their Always Connected PC initiative. Qualcomm created a laptop design that uses their Snapdragon 835 mobile processor to power what they dubbed an “Always Connected PC.” The premise is that with the Snapdragon 835, which includes the LTE radio in its design, that people will be more likely to want a portable computer that can always be connected and have at least 20 hours of battery life.

They may be right, but to date, laptops with LTE built in have not been big hits. In fact, in our research on iPads, we found that 50% of all iPad’s sold include the LTE radio chip but that only 25% of those machines ever activate the LTE radios that are inside.

I think the bigger story from this event and the one that probably should be their lead story is the incredible battery life one will get with this type of laptop. Imagine heading off for the day and not even having to think about carrying a power cord for the laptop since you know you will get at least 20 hours of real use on this type of portable computer.

I think what Qualcomm has done has broken new ground in PC designs, and while I like the Always-Connected PC concept, I think their push also to create what I call “all-day” computing may be their bigger contribution to the world of portable computing.

Social Media Sites Become Regulated
I know this might be considered a bold prediction but my contacts in Washington say that legislators from both sides of the aisle are becoming greatly concerned about the negative impact social media has had on America, its election processes and the overall level of divisiveness that it has had on our worldview. Although people in Washington had hoped that Facebook, Twitter, and Google would police themselves, I continue to hear from Washington insiders that they don’t believe that they can do that without some government intervention. While full regulation is probably not likely, I would not be surprised if we do see some of the legislation put forward to reign in these social media sites and force some restrictions on them, especially when it comes to our mid-term elections and areas where hate groups are free to post anything they want without any serious checks and balances coming from these social media giants.

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Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc. He is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.

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