PCs and Laptops are Now Essential for the Work At Home Crowd but are in Short Supply

Given the mandate for people to work from home, it seems logical to assume that most, if not all, who are doing this are using a desktop, laptop, or possibly a tablet to do their work.

For most of the history of the PC market, PC vendors have always had more than enough stock in place to meet demand during regular times, but these are not normal times.

In parts of the country, big outlets are reporting shortages of laptops, and demand for desktops are on the rise for the first time in years. And with people not being able to socialize in person, they are deferring to various digital means, and laptops and desktops are the preferred medium for things like video conferencing and games.

One key factor for the short supply of these products is the fact that almost all of the factories in China were locked down for at least a month from mid-January to Mid February. The average time for Chinese factories to be offline is about ten days during their New Year, which starts in mid-January. That pushed out the manufacturing of PCs and laptops at least another 2-3 weeks from normal.

The other reason is that Q1 is the slowest time for most PC and laptop sales during the year, and PC makers order smaller numbers in this quarter and then ramp up output in larger quantities by the end of Q2. That means that in Q1, at best, they only had about 6-8 weeks of inventory in place before the factories in China shut down.

The work from home mandate means that many companies had to move quickly to help their people connect from their homes. In about 38% of the cases, businesses sent people home with company based machines. In a recent NordVPN report, they found that about 62% of people working from home are using their personal PCs, laptops, and tablets for work purposes.

Our research is showing a couple of significant trends that are very favorable for the tech industry, and it starts with what we see in IT purchases. PC Vendors are telling us that demand for commercial laptops is very high, and this is forcing them to expand their manufacturing pipeline fast.

One vendor we know has increased their orders for Q2 by 60% to meet the demand of their business customers.
We hear similar numbers from those making consumer PC’s and laptops, as they too are seeing an upswing in demand and have increased their PC and laptop orders by an average of 25%-30% for Q2.

Families who have children that have been using Chromebooks are now in the market for laptops with better cameras and better audio. This is driving demand for consumer laptops into higher price ranges as parents see the need for better and more powerful laptops to meet the increased requirements the kids are getting from their teachers and online courses.

One question we are getting is whether this bump in demand for laptops and PC’s are a short term event or one with longer legs and bigger ramifications for the tech industry.

It is too early to have any stats to see if this is a long term trend, but some things are coming out of this WFH experiment that bodes well for tech and could harm at least one or two major industries.

IT buyers are signaling to PC makers that they will begin to speed up their PC and laptop upgrade cycles. Their tendency to keep laptops in circulation for 4 to 5 years is biting them as these laptops are being used at home and have inferior cameras, slow processors, and poor audio.

This could cause a huge wave of new laptops going into corporate for at least two years as they prepare for any other significant pandemics or economic disasters that could force most of their workers home again in the future.

Gartner recently surveyed IT directors, and they said that they are also rethinking their work at home policies. For many white-collar workers, they have found that their productivity has not gone down and instead improved. Less mindless meetings with people arguing and talking over each other, and instead, their virtual meetings are more focused, and they get more accomplished.

With this in mind, IT directors told Gartner that they could see allocating up to 20% of the workforce to their homes, and those people would only need to be in the office for major events or highly secure meetings.

The impact of this on business real estate and office building construction in the future could be a difficult one. While the tendency in a good economy may be to expand a companies
in-building workforce and augment real estate holdings, if WFH works for more companies, there could be a tidal wave shift in less demand for business real estate and offices.

One other thing that is becoming clear is that companies who have resisted moving to a full digital transformation will start moving in this direction faster than planned.

Smaller businesses are seeing the need to have as much of their operations include various elements of digital transformation in their business operations. This will need to happen if they want to grow and be prepared for any other types of interruptions that could impact our global economy and way of life in the future.

What is also coming out of this forced isolation is the fact that tech is now “essential” for people’s existence and sanity. PCs and laptops are people’s windows into work and entertainment. While tablets and smartphones can be used for these purposes too, when it comes to working at home and productivity, laptops and PC’s have risen in importance as the workhorses for any WFH initiatives.

Although the economy will indeed face a severe recession, with PC’s and laptops emerging as essential tools for business and families, this part of our tech industry should be able to weather this downturn without too many serious bumps.

Coronavirus Era Shines a Light on the Importance of Broadband

Broadband and wireless networks have held up quite well during this month of dramatically shifting work and traffic patterns. Some of the stats are otherworldly, such as the 50%+ drop in mobile handoffs in places such as NYC, a near doubling of home streaming and work collaboration traffic, and a 50-60% increase in home voice calling minutes. Kudos are due to the service providers and the FCC for some agile, outside the box thinking, and gratitude is due to the front-line workers who are keeping the networks up and running.

The communications needs during the coronavirus crisis have cast a particular light on the importance of broadband networks. Yes, there has been a marked increase in wireless network traffic, but much of this drafts off home broadband/Wi-Fi. Even the increase in wireless voice minutes (since so many fewer homes have landlines) is using ‘voice over Wi-Fi’. For the most part, home broadband networks have held up pretty well. For the 60-70% of homes in the United States that have a 50 MB connection or better, broadband has met most of those  Zooming and Streaming requirements. Much as we might beat up the cable companies, they’ve done a pretty good job upgrading their networks over the past 3-5 years – albeit with far less fanfare than the wireless service providers. Average home broadband speed has basically doubled since 2015, and most consumers aren’t paying more.

However, these steady improvements have, like so much else in the economy, illuminated the stark difference between the haves and the have-nots. Some 30% of households in the United States are unserved or underserved by broadband, in that they have no access at all, or can only get some sort of crummy DSL service (or worse). I consider anything below a 25 MB download service as inadequate for today’s needs.

There’s a whole other category here, which is more difficult to quantify: the percentage of households who don’t have broadband simply because they can’t afford it. Then there’s the percentage of who pay the $60 monthly average cost of broadband, but struggle to do so – a number that’s sure to increase as the recession deepens. Note that even though broadband service has improved in recent years, the industry in the United States is not at all competitive. Only 50% of U.S. households have a choice of more than one good broadband service, with little prospects for this changing in a widespread way in the near-future.

There have been some important measures and initiatives to address issues of broadband availability/quality/affordability over these past few weeks. Most of the broadband service providers (SPs) have waived data caps and late payment fees, and have said they won’t turn customers’ networks off for non-payment. We’ll see how long that magnanimity lasts. Some SPs have also offered a free or very low-cost entry-level broadband service. Comcast, for example, is offering its Xfinity Internet Essentials service for free for 60 days (it’s normally $9.95) and increasing download speeds from 15 Mbps to 25 Mbps. But, we should bear in mind that the usual 15 MB service is the communications equivalent of the $15 minimum wage: it might be a ‘living wage’, but it’s not enough to live on.

In another promising sign, a not insignificant sum of money has been allocated to help improve broadband in un-served/underserved areas as part of the coronavirus stimulus bill. This should help some of the Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs), some smaller/rural telcos, and others who are seeking to upgrade their networks. Laudable though this is, it must be noted that there is no quick, easy or cheap way to get to areas not served by current physical plant. Reaching that last 10% of households is really, really hard. Satellite remains the service of last resort, but the quality ranges from abysmal to inadequate…and is super-expensive. Multiple attempts at a ‘next gen’ satellite service have either failed or fallen under the weight of the enormous capital required, OneWeb being the most recent casualty.

The telecom historian in me remains cynical of the prospects of the ‘stimulus broadband’ dollars producing any large-scale results. Billions of dollars, across multiple initiatives, have been allocated to ‘rural broadband’ over the past ten years, with very little to show for it. It’s a real mystery where some of this money has gone.

Finally, there’s the idea of wireless to the rescue. A significant increase in wireless network capacity is on the way over the next few years, through a series of already completed and upcoming spectrum auctions, in both the high (mmWave) and mid- (sub 6 GHz) bands. This, combined with the spectral efficiencies of 5G (which lower the cost of providing data), put wireless networks at least in the league of being considered as an option for unserved/underserved areas, and/or a competitive alternative in cities, which could lower the cost for consumers. Verizon remains committed to serving 30 million households with its 5G Home service within three years, and T-Mobile as part of its deal to acquire Sprint, has promised to offer a competitive broadband service to tens of millions of households, especially in un/under-served rural areas.

However, what we’ve seen out of coronavirus era usage patterns should give a sense of pause when it comes to the prospects of wireless as a home broadband alternative. Average wireless data consumption (not using Wi-Fi) from smartphones is about 8 GB per month in the United States. Average U.S. household broadband data consumption is about 300 GB per month, and now getting closer to 500 GB with the coronavirus spike. Those looking at the 3-year planning horizon should probably assume household usage approaches 1 TB per month. Even with all the improvements in wireless network capacity and spectral efficiency brought by new spectrum, industry consolidation, and 5G, wireless networks will not be able to support data requirements anywhere near that level. Wireless might be a viable alternative for a 50-100 Mbps plan with usage caps in the 200 GB range. Perhaps at a discounted level to current broadband pricing. A ‘Metro PCS’ for broadband, if you will.   Wireless should be seen as a niche home broadband service, not a broad-based solution or competitive alternative.

During this very long past month, most home-bound folks will say there are four things they wouldn’t have been able to live without: toilet paper (apparently), liquor (50% increase in sales), Netflix, and broadband. The ‘haves’ — those who live in cities and with decent incomes — are well-served by broadband networks. But good broadband service remains far from universal. And it’s big monthly nugget for many. The number of households that that will struggle to pay that broadband bill will undoubtedly increase as the coronavirus economic fallout continues in the coming months. This is something we need to think more about, and address.

Economic Report Synopsis

I know many of our readers are business professionals and are keeping a close look at the economy as it relates to their businesses and industries. I always monitor sell-side reports via access I have to different report portals, but over the past few weeks I’ve been reading every report on the economic downturn, I can get my hand on. I wanted to share a summary of some of the key take-aways I gathered that help us frame where we are today and what the next few years can look like.

Below are some top-level points about what everyone is calling the Great COVID-19 Recession.

  • No Quick Recovery: There was a brief thesis going around that the economy would see a V-shaped recovery. Essentially a rapid recovery after the large dip. There is generally no one who holds that thesis any longer. The V-shaped recovery thesis hinged on a rapid slow down and victory over the COVID-19 pandemic, and a return to life as normal would not take more than 60 days. That is no longer possible, as defeating the virus is taking much longer.
  • How Long Will be in a Bottom? The conversation has now shifted to how long will we be at the bottom of the recovery curve? Nearly every economist report I’ve read now suggests the earliest we could see some recovery would be in Q4 of 2020, and most believe it will take all of 2021 for us to recover fully.
  • How Bad Will Unemployment Get? This question saw little to no consensus. Which I generally view as positive because the variance means it may not be as bad, but it may also not be great when it comes to unemployment. Economists range from the worst-case scenario I’ve seen of unemployment at 28%, and more consensus thought around 14-18% range as the worst case. Both scenarios are significant when it comes to job losses, the need for government intervention, and the deeper the job losses, the longer the road to recovery.
  • The Hit to GDP: All economists point to t Q2 2020 being the biggest hit to GDP. This is logical since the expectation in the US will see the worst of the virus in April and May and then start to see it slow down 🤞. The worst-cast GDP scenario I found was GDP contracting as much as 45% in Q2 20, and that came from Morgan Stanely. That was their worst-case scenario, and their best-case scenario has 2Q 20 contracting to 23%. So both cases, that is still a large hit to GDP. Most other economic reports I read had their worst case GDP declines at 20-25% in Q2 and everyone seems to believe in a soft-ish recovery in 3Q and slightly more in 4Q although everyone agrees GDP will be down all of 2020 now.
  • What Will Be the Hardest Hit Industries? Consensus is found here that the top industries hit will be (in order) recreation services, Food services & accommodation, travel and hospitality, automotive, clothing, and home furnishing round out the top. I found a subsequent report on payment spending, which was a survey of 5,000 consumers across all income levels that validated these industries are the ones where spending cuts seemed to be the harshest.
  • A Good Sign on Savings: Per the last big recession, one of the big worries was the knowledge that most American’s did not have ample savings. All data today indicates a better savings cushion for most than in the last recession. The data also suggests most American’s started to prepare and save seeing the trend coming in the economy as early as Feb with a savings rate continuing to be higher than normal through March. This suggests supporting basic need consumption over the medium term, which is why economists agree not every industry is hit. There will be industries that benefit as consumers do have a cushion of discretionary spend this time where they didn’t in 2008-2009. This cushion is a reason to believe the depth of the recession will not last as long as the worst-case scenarios as there is angst to get the economy going by every, one and all will be incentivized to do so.
  • The Fed Still has Options: I understand the necessity of government aid. Still, given our current debt situation and the monetary policy and currency cliff we keep getting dangerously close to, I worry about the government screwing this up more than anything. Still, economists believe there is more the fed can do to ease the pain and inject stimulus back into the economy. The interest rate will stay at 0% for some time and disinflation (not deflation) for a few years. Assuming this holds, and we do see disinflation, not deflation. This is actually a positive economically as it will result in some better pricing opportunities for many. I’ve long been a fan of the boom, bust, buildout theory due to the value it brings in access to goods at lower prices which leads to innovation. While we are not in as large of a bust as past bubbles, what this situation is resulting in is pricing strategies of goods and services that, I believe, will spur an innovation cycle for a period. It is likely this disinflationary period is not long, which means prices will go up before too long, savvy businesses will capitalize immediately on the opportunities rather than cut back. Across the board, we will see “deals” that were previously not to be had.

Structurally it seems everyone views this recession as quite different than previous ones. Which is a reason there is more optimism going forward for a full recovery and even some positive economic changes as a result. Nearly every business has had to make changes they would have never made had they been forced to with humans not being able to leave their houses. Most of the industries I mentioned who were hardest hit are being creative in these times and many using digital/online technologies to still offer engagement and commerce. I have long said they someday every company will have to be a technology company but I was reasonable in any forecast of that happening because of how slow so many companies can move. Especially when they are not pressed to the fire. The situation around COVID-19 has forced many into the fire and while not all establishments will make it out those who do will have been refined and stronger as a result of the changes they made.

When we look back at this event in many years, I do hope it serves as a springboard to bring more businesses, governments, and humans into new and better processes that will better prepare us as a civilization for the turbulence that will inevitably find us, but also force many companies to shake off the crust the have developed and be in a better position to keep innovating into the future.

Need for Multiple Video Platforms Becoming Apparent

Like most of you, I’ve been doing more than my fair share of video calls lately and feel relatively certain that the practice will continue for some time to come—even when life beyond the COVID-19 pandemic starts to return to normal. As we’ve all learned from the experience, in the proper amount and for the proper length, they can be a very effective form of communication. Plus, as many have discussed and promised for years, they do give us the flexibility to work from many different locations and, for certain types of events, can reduce the time, costs, and hassles of travel.

That’s not to say, however, that they are a cure all. As we’ve also all learned, there are definitely limitations to what can be achieved via video calls and sometimes things just get, well, awkward.

For people who don’t work at large organizations that have standardized on a single videoconferencing platform, another challenge is the need to work with, install, and learn multiple different apps. As someone who talks to lots of different companies, I can safely say that I’m pretty sure I’ve used virtually every major videoconferencing option that’s out there over the last few weeks: Microsoft Teams, Cisco Webex, Google Hangouts/Meet, Skype, GoToMeeting, Blue Jeans, and of course, Zoom.

Initially, I admit to being frustrated by the lack of standards across the different tools and have wondered if it wouldn’t make more sense to just have a single platform, or at least a primary one that could serve as the default. As time has gone on, however, I realize that my initial thinking was lacking a certain amount of insight. As unintuitive as it may first sound, there actually is a great deal of sense to having multiple videoconferencing apps and platforms.

To be clear, there’s definitely work that could be done to enable and/or improve the interoperability across some of these platforms–even if it’s nothing more than allowing the creation of a high-level log-in tool that could manage underlying audio and video connections to the various platforms. However, just as choice and competition in other categories ends up creating better products for everyone, the same is true with videoconferencing tools—for many different reasons.

First, as we’ve certainly started to see and learn from much of the Zoom fallout that’s started to occur, things can get ugly if too many people start to over-rely on a single platform. Not only is there the potential for reliability concerns—even on a cloud-based platform—but a platform that gets too much attention is bound to become a tempting target for hackers and other troublemakers. Stories of “Zoombombing” and other related intrusions have grown so commonplace that the FBI is even starting to investigate. Plus, nearly every day, it seems, there’s news of yet another large organization moving away from or forbidding the use of Zoom.

To the company’s credit, much of the attention and the continuing strong usage of Zoom is because they took the often awkward, painful, and unreliable process of connecting multiple people from multiple locations into a functioning video call and made it easy. For many people and some organizations, that was good enough, and thankfully, we’re starting to see other videoconferencing platforms improve these critical basics as a competitive response. That’s a win for everyone.

However, it’s also become increasingly clear that Zoom wasn’t nearly as focused on security and privacy as many people and organizations thought they were and as they should have been. From questions about encryption, to publicly accessible recordings of private calls, the routing of US calls through Chinese servers, and much more, Zoom is facing a reckoning on some of the choices they’ve made.

Other videoconferencing platforms, including Webex and GotoMeeting have been focused on privacy and security for some time—unfortunately, sometimes at the expense of ease-of-use—but it’s clear that many organizations are starting to look at other alternatives that are a better match for their security needs. Microsoft, to its credit, has made security an essential part of its relatively new Teams platform.

But even beyond the obvious critical security needs, it’s clear, in using the various videoconferencing tools, that some are better suited for different types of meetings than others. The mechanisms for sharing and annotating files, for example, take different forms among different tools. In addition, some tools have better capabilities for working within the structure of a defined multi-part meeting, such as a virtual event.

The bottom line is, it’s very difficult to find a single tool that can work for all types of meetings, all types of leaders, or even all types of company cultures. Meetings can vary tremendously across companies or even across groups within companies, so it isn’t realistic to think that a single platform is going to meet everyone’s virtual meeting needs. Choice and focus continue to be important and will likely lead many organizations to adopting several different videoconferencing tools for different meeting needs.

And let’s not forget, we won’t be doing this many video meetings for ever. While there’s little doubt that we’ll all be doing more video meetings post-pandemic than we were doing pre-pandemic, the overall number of video meetings will go down from current levels for most people. In fact, once things get back to normal, I think people are actually going to look forward to face-to-face meetings¬—despite the frustrations they often create. We’ll all just be a lot more sensitive to what types of things work in video meetings and what’s better live. That’s an improvement I think we can all look forward to.

Podcast: Microsoft 365, T-Mobile-Sprint, Network Reliability

This week’s Techpinions podcast features Carolina Milanesi, Mark Lowenstein and Bob O’Donnell discussing the release of Microsoft’s new Microsoft 365 subscription service, analyzing the impact of the T-Mobile-Sprint merger on the US telecom market and the rollout of 5G, and chatting about overall broadband and mobile network reliability during the COVID19 crisis.

Niantic Buys 6D.AI as Battle to Own the AR Cloud Begins

This week a small startup that few people outside the augmented reality (AR) industry have heard about called 6D.AI was acquired by Niantic, one of the few AR-focused companies most people do know (thanks to its hit game Pokémon Go). So why is Niantic’s acquisition of 6D.AI important? Because it could represent the opening shot in an industry-wide battle to own an essential building block of our AR future, collectively termed the AR Cloud.

What is the AR Cloud?
The AR Cloud, as the name unintentionally implies, is a somewhat amorphously defined technology that is comprised of a 3D map of the world that enables AR applications to persistently tie digital objects and experiences to specific locations in the real world. Fundamentally, it is vital because mapping the real world is essential to the future of AR if it’s going to move from purpose-built applications in the enterprise to mainstream usage. The AR Cloud will be critical to driving a feature-rich, shared AR experience across all types of AR-enabled devices from smartphones and tablets to glasses and headsets.

How important is this technology to the future of AR? Many in the industry call it the operating system (OS) for AR. We know from history that the companies that own the OS of a new technology category—think Apple, Microsoft, and Google—are the ones that tend to capture most of the revenue generated there. So, it’s no wonder that many of the tech-industry majors have begun the work of building their own versions of the AR Cloud, some quite publicly and others behind the scenes. Concurrently, we’ve seen a ton of investment into startups, such as 6D.AI and others, that are racing to build their versions of the AR Cloud.

The well-funded startup Magic Leap calls its AR Cloud the MagicVerse. Microsoft calls its service Spatial Anchors, and it is in beta supporting HoloLens, Apple’s ARKit, and Google’s ARCore. Facebook calls its version Live Maps, Google’s is Anchors, and Niantic’s is the Niantic Real World Platform. You get the picture: Everybody is in the pool, and some are being more public about it than others.

Why the AR Cloud is Key to the Future of AR
One of the reasons that AR’s biggest successes, to date, have mainly occurred in the enterprise is because there is clear value to real-world use cases there, from knowledge capture and transfer to collaboration to accessing 3D models and more. And it’s not that enterprise use cases can’t use real-world mapping; it’s that they’ve mostly dealt with the lack of mapping by using next-gen barcodes, object recognition, and other technology workarounds. But for AR to expand its commercial use cases, and to take off with consumers, the industry needs to make all of this happen automatically. My AR device needs to know where I am, and when I’m there, and it needs to recognize the digital objects that others have placed there.

Another critical element that the AR Cloud will drive is something called occlusion. A person’s AR experience is significantly improved if the digital object they are viewing is spatially aware of the real-world objects around it. So, for example, if you are watching a digital rabbit run in front of you in AR, it shouldn’t run through the real-world light post, it should run around it. And just as important, when it passes behind the light post, it should briefly disappear and then reappear on the other side. Occlusion not only drives a higher level of immersion; in time, it will be instrumental in driving better forms of interacting with these digital objects, too.

One of the issues we’re going to run into as all these companies build out their own AR clouds and make them available to the developers who create the next generation of AR apps is that persistence only works if it is universal. If my map is different from your map, and each shows different landmarks and such, it diminishes the usefulness of both maps. That’s why the Open AR Cloud organization exists. It’s mission: “to drive the development of open and interoperable AR Cloud technology, data and standards…” The company has an impressive list of contributing companies, although there are some notable hold outs. Recently the organization announced plans to build its own reference Open Spatial Computing Platform (OSCP). Keep an eye on this working group, as its ability to bring companies together to create a truly useful AR Cloud will be important.

Why Niantic’s Purchase of 6D.AI Matters
So, at the end of the day, why is the purchase of a company most people haven’t heard about by one that many have heard of important? For starters, it means one of the upstart independents has been swallowed up by one of the more prominent players. That will have a meaningful impact on developers that have built or are building apps utilizing 6D.AI’s existing services. The company says its current SDK will only remain active for another 30 days, and it will wind down its existing developer tools during that same period. A note on its site says it is shifting its focus to “helping developers build realistic AR applications through the Niantic Platform.” I hope Niantic takes good care of 6D.AI’s existing developers.

We can speculate as to why 6D.AI opted to sell now, but the broader implication is that this likely signifies that additional consolidation in this space is coming. There are simply too many companies trying to build out their own AR Clouds, and the ramp of AR in the consumer space is, quite frankly, taking longer than many of these companies expected. It was just a matter of time before we started to see more acquisitions, and likely some closures.

My hope is that purchases such as this one will help speed the development of workable AR Clouds that will deliver the experiences that we’re all looking forward to having in AR. My concern, however, is that as bigger players capture more of the technology and developer mindshare, we could be headed toward a series of walled-off AR Clouds. If that happens, it won’t be good for the industry or users.

Amazon and Apple: When a 30% Cut is Justified and When it Isn’t

Amazon and Apple
Some interesting news dropped yesterday with Amazon enabling Prime video rentals and purchases to now take place inside the Amazon Prime Video App. As of a few days ago, I know because I tried, you still had to go out of the Prime video app and to Amazon’s website to buy or rent a video from Amazon. This news changes that, and finally lets people seamlessly purchase premium content from Amazon and never leave the app. There are some important aspects of this to unpack.

First, we know Amazon has long held out doing this for their customers to avoid paying Apple’s 30% cut on digital purchases taking place in an iOS store. Note this applies to digital purchases that are then played on an Apple device. Oculus has long had the ability to pay for content on the Oculus iOS app but then play that content on an Oculus VR device. This pushback on Apple’s 30% cut for in-app purchases has also come from companies like Spotify and Netflix.

Apple’s comments on the matter suggest there was already an established program in place for this, but that has caused some doubt by independent developers reading through the lines.

I have no idea if Ryan is correct, but honestly, it doesn’t matter. Whether there was a program or not, or whether Apple and Amazon worked this out together, is irrelevant. What is relevant is that it exists now and that’s great for Amazon’s customers. But it is worth taking a deeper look at the reason for Apple’s 30% and why that reason has never applied to Amazon.

Apple’s 30% cut, in their minds, is justified for a few reasons. First is because the iOS store is a marketplace. Apps on that marketplace are put before customers and given an environment in which to be discovered and sell content. For the vast majority of apps, without the iOS store, they would not exist. That alone equals some value to both parties. Second, Apple is acting as the merchant/payment processor. This is important because without Apple acting as the seamless and trusted intermediary between business and customer. If the App store’s mechanism for payment through Apple did not exist, the vast number of companies collecting payments via in-app purchases or subscriptions would not be possible. The alternative would have been these companies setting up their own payment mechanisms and asking a consumer to set up an account, enter payment information and key personal details, etc., All too much friction most would never have bothered.

Not only would most consumers not bothered, most would have never heard of these companies before and never given them their payment information to begin with because they did not trust them. This is where Apple becoming the trusted intermediary for payments is crucial. If that did not exist, I am extremely confident there would not be the iOS economy there is today, processing billions of dollars annually.

If there is one company, for whom I have always believed this rule should not apply, it is Amazon. Amazon was already a dominant commerce company before the iPhone. Amazon was the pioneer of simple one-click checkout, and Amazon was already a trusted brand that already had customer accounts in the tens of millions before the App store ever launched. Amazon NEVER needed Apple for either market place assistance or payment/trust processing. All the reasons Apple felt their 30% cut of digital transactions was justified never applied to Amazon. And honestly, I think Amazon is the only company I can say this about. Feel free to debate me 😉

Yes, perhaps Netflix, but even then, I’d argue a large surge of Netflix new customers was due to this ease of payments through Apple. But Netflix will be fine using its own payment mechanism. Spotify, on the other hand, despite their lawsuits and complaining, would have had a significantly more difficult time growing to the size of the customer base they acquired without Apple’s in-app payment process. If Spotify would have asked every new customer to go sign up and give them their payment information, etc., it would have been a wall and, in reality, a wall that would have greatly benefitted Apple Music. One could argue the level playing field in ease of transactions was a significant reason Spotify could compete with Apple Music to begin with, and had they had their own payment requirements, the playing field would have actually not been even. It’s a paradox, I know.

This, now, raises a few questions.

  • First, will other companies start to use their own payments to get around the Apple 30% cut. The answer is yes, and for many companies, they will fail and need to return to Apple’s in-app-payments.
  • Will Amazon doing this hurt Apple’s services revenue? No. Apple was not getting any revenue from Amazon anyway on digital purchases. Therefore this will have no revenue impact on Apple’s services business.

  • Will this impact Apple’s services business as new companies try this? My gut answer is no, and it is for this reason. As I pointed out, it takes a company that has reached a certain size, scale, brand, etc., even to pull this off. Amazon is that Netflix is that, and now Spotify is that Disney could do this as well. However, it behooves them to not. I’d argue that in any companies growth strategy, or as we like to call it in the business land and expand, using Apple’s payment processing for easy one-touch transactions will be essential. It is only once that company has reached a certain size of customer base when they can move to their own system, and at that point, I’d argue, their growth would have slowed. So Apple would capture a share of the revenue during their growth stage, and by the time they can pull off their own system, they won’t be adding customers nearly as fast and thus would be contributing little to Apple’s services business any longer.
  • Overall, this is great for Amazon customers, and one does wonder if there is some unions between Apple’s tvOS and FireTV in-store now this is worked out. It will be interesting to see what other companies move in this direction, but as I said, there is a shortlist of companies who can pull it off, and that is not going to change any time soon.

Why AI and Deep Learning Will be Critical to Solving the Current and Future Pandemics.

The world is facing a crisis due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, a virus that is in the SARs family and has mutated and spread around the world at lightning speed.

Medical researchers are working around the clock to find a cure, as well as a vaccine to deal with this virus and its dire health consequences.

In the world of technology, one technology that will be desperately needed to help find a cure and a potent vaccine will be Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning.

Intel, IBM, and others with AI technology already have experience with applying AI to disparate cancer databases to try and curate data from cancer research centers around the world.
In this case, AI is targeted at a broad disease and using AI to find commonalities and using deep learning in a way to help researchers and doctors deal with this deadly disease.

In talking with medical researchers working in the field of virology, epidemics and disease transmissions, they are desperate to find a way to delve deeper into multiple data sources to not only find a cure for this current Cover-19 pandemic but to be able to identify any new viruses faster and keep them from spreading. They agree that AI and deep learning will be a critical tool in helping them with this quest.

Given our industry’s strong work in AI and its experience in using it for cancer research, I believe these companies need to perhaps create another moonshot like a project, not necessarily just focused on COVID-19, and look at applying AI and Deep learning to the work of identifying viruses as they develop in their early stages and keep them from spreading at all.

AI and deep learning has the potential of being one of the greatest technologies have created that can apply to this particular problem at a broad level, such as identifying and nipping viruses before they can spread, as well as finding cures and vaccines for ones that are already released on mankind.

Bill Gates has been warning us for years about the threat of deadly viruses and it has taken COVID-19 to get people to understand his comments and concerns. And as he has suggested, the medical world needs to work hard to identify these viruses early on and keep them from ever spreading.

I have been reading a lot of medical research papers on viruses, and most state that once a virus is identified, they need to aggressively go after its source. But to do so they need a wealth of data from past viruses and dig deeper at their roots and similarities in order to identify them and then crush them before they can spread.

At the moment, the research data is spread all over the world in databases and research material created by universities, Pharma labs, medical researchers and virologists, etc. But, in most cases, these databases are not connected to each other. Even worse is that some of these databases contain up to a couple of terabytes of material that need to be combed through and cross-referenced as part of any significant research to identify any new viruses at their roots as well as find a way to keep them from ever seeing the light of day.

If ever there was a time for tech to step up it is now. We have supercomputers and high-performance computing systems that, if aimed at these virus databases and applying AI and deep learning to the research process, the chance of identifying new viruses before they even start, could be possible.

I know that given our current situation with COVID-19, we need AI and Deep learning applied to find a cure and a vaccine in the short term. But those like Bill Gates and others who have studied viruses and their potential impa.ct, say that the current conditions such as climate change, extreme poverty, poor sanitation, etc could breed other viruses and we need to be able to ID them fast and eliminate them at their roots. If not, what we are going through now, could happen multiple times in our lifetime.

Microsoft 365 Aims at Helping Us Navigate Our Blended Lives

In a world where productivity is no longer confined within the physical place where we work, why should the tools we use create artificial barriers for us, rather than help us blend work and play? Now more than ever, thanks to COVID-19, work and school have found a place in our homes as we are all trying to work, learn and live under one roof.

Microsoft’s vision for a blended life started almost two years ago when, at the Devices Fall Event in New York City, Microsoft’s Corporate VP, Yusuf Mehdi, mentioned for the first time Modern Life. The vision that we humans share both many tools and many goals in our work-life as we do in our private life remains true today as it was in 2018. What has changed over this period of time,  is how Microsoft will empower us to achieve that blended life. It seems to me that Modern Life has evolved from a product to a philosophy behind the products Microsoft will bring to market starting with Microsoft 365, an evolution of the consumer version of Office 365.

This is what I wrote back in 2018, commenting on Modern Life:

It is this blurring of our work life and our personal Life that Microsoft is addressing with Modern Life. Because of its history with consumers and the lack of mobile presence, Microsoft comes to this from its position of strength, which is work and the PC.
Modern Life takes those users who Microsoft caters for in a corporate environment and addresses their needs before and after they get to the Office helping them achieve what they want to achieve: finish a presentation, dialing into a call on the way home, planning a weekend away or juggle the after school calendar.
In other words, Modern Life recognizes that I am not a “worker” between 9 and 5 and a “consumer” for the rest of the time. I am a human being 24 hours a day doing different things depending on time and place but still with the same goals, values, and aspirations.
Fast forward to this week and you see two marked differences.

Confidence and Focus

What struck me about the Microsoft 365 announcement, this week, is the confidence Microsoft displayed in addressing some real pain-points and, in doing so, where it matters the most to users, which meant making its tools available first on mobile. This is a very different company from two years ago. One that knows the value of its own services and has come to fully embrace an OS-agnostic approach as the value proposition shifts to center in the cloud and AI.

And so, Microsoft Teams for consumers will be made available first on mobile, both Android and iOS, for consumers to be able to chat, share photos and videos as well as do video calls. From sharing to-do lists across the family to organizing a book club, the Teams app will become a collaboration and communication one-stop-shop. Plus, if you are one of the current 44 million corporate users, you will easily be able to toggle between your personal and your corporate account.

The second difference comes in the name Microsoft 365. To me, this signifies that the company believes they have value to offer beyond Office, beyond a more traditional concept of productivity. The name also speaks to the pillars that Microsoft’s services and apps are built on: cloud, AI,  privacy and security. Privacy, in particular, was mentioned when talking about the chat function within Teams, a very timely highlight, given this week’s news about Zoom. The other mention of privacy was in relation to a new app called Microsoft Family Safety, which helps parents keep their kids safer both in the digital and the real world. Digital safety has similar features we have seen for iOS and Android around screen time but offers the additional benefit of working across Android phones Xbox and Windows PCs. It also helps manage appropriate content when browsing which remains one of the biggest issues for parents when their kids just start to discover the Web. In real life, the focus shifts to physical safety as the app sends notifications when a family member arrives or leaves a location. The app also offers driving reports for new drivers with the promise that your information will be kept private and not shared with third parties such as insurance companies.

A Better Understanding of Consumers

What I have seen in Microsoft is indeed confidence rather than arrogance. They understand where their sweet spot is, and they want to stay true to it, which is why we did not see Microsoft get into content as others have done. Microsoft knows the brand has consumers’ trust and they know there is value in offering alternatives to existing apps by centering them on privacy and security. This is especially true when it comes to location data and financial information. So Family Safety location alerts might not be an original idea, but for those parents who use solutions like Life360, having an alternative that offers peace of mind on privacy and security is a welcome addition. The same can be said for Money in Excel, a solution that draws data from your banks and credit card accounts to create personalized insights to help you improve your spending all while your data is kept private and secure.

Microsoft does not just better understand its strengths. Microsoft understands consumers better. A blended life does not mean that I want to extend my work to home. Sometimes I might have to, but what I am looking for is a consistency of tools and workflows that allows for a more seamless transition between my personal and my professional. This realization is clear not just in the tools that Microsoft is offering within the traditional Office suite, but in the use cases they list for those new features. And so Calendar is not about accessing the work calendar in the morning to see what is coming up. Instead, it is about being able to see a family calendar right next to my work one, so that scheduling anything becomes easier. Or Word where Microsoft Editor is expanded because good writing does not only matter at work. In addition to Money for Excel, in my spreadsheets, I can now start to analyze other data like food, dogs, places, or even Pokémon.

All these services will start rolling out over the coming months with some services like Money for Excel only available in the US first due to the need to close relationships with banks and card issuers. For current users of Office Personal or Family, the additional services will all be included in the subscription as they start to roll out later in April. For new Microsoft 365 subscribers, the cost will be $6.99 for Microsoft 365 Personal and $9.99 for a family up to six users. Is it worth it? Here is some context. A monthly subscription to Grammarly is around $11 if bought as an annual subscription. Budget management apps like Dollarbird, Goodbudget and Tiller Money go from $3.99 to $6.99 a month. Life360 with Driver Protect is $7.99 a month. It seems a pretty easy decision to make from an economic standpoint but even more so from a security and privacy standpoint.

Zoom’s Security Challenges, PC Hardware Surges

Zoom’s Security Challenges
The undisputed winner, in terms of name recognition and likely usage, of the remote working/learning situation is Zoom. Influential venture capitalists, and CEO, and more are all tweeting about Zoom, brands are sharing images to be used as Zoom backgrounds as marketing.

People all over are sharing images and stories of teachers and all educators doing Zoom’s with their students to stay in touch and teach remotely. Like I said, in terms of mentions in public as well as the public’s mind, if you were to ask them who is winning video conferencing, most would likely say Zoom.

Zoom is a solid product. It is arguably the easiest platform to get set up, use, and start video conferencing. It is also highly reliable in terms of video quality and audio quality. We had known for a while that Zoom was spreading like wildfire because of its ease of use. It was continually being adopted by users for a variety of reasons.

Zoom has also been crushing it from a stock perspective. It is currently trading at a P/E of just over 1600. There is debate about whether Zoom is over-valued, and its a good debate, but you can’t argue Zoom becoming the generic face of video conferencing during this period of quarantine is not valuable and will not do wonders for their continued growth.

But, it is not all good news for Zoom as some security and privacy concerns are now starting to gain headlines. It was reported last week that Zoom was sending data to Facebook when their customers choose the log-in with a Facebook option, which should not be a shocker to anyone who looked into how the log-in with Facebook SDK was working. The fascinating question is, why did Zoom even offer log-in with Facebook to begin with? I’ll hit on that in a moment.

Zoom has since plugged that hole, and did so quickly, also releasing a blog post on the matter.

More recently, today, an article came out today looking at the lack of true end-to-end encryption on Zoom calls.

While I do, perhaps naively but I do, take Zoom at their word that they are not spying on customers or actively selling their data, I do think Zoom’s growth strategy, or land and expand as its called in the business, was developed with a much more consumer-friendly attitude than an enterprise-friendly attitude. What I mean by that is Zoom took a bottoms-up approach that focused on making things dead simple for the end-user and through that process got adopted into enterprises with a less than thorough security and privacy approach. Now, for a lot of businesses and institutions, that may not matter. I’m sure educators, colleges, many SMBs, and even plenty of large enterprises are not trading in deep secrets and are ok taking Zoom at their word they aren’t spying or selling data. However, there are also plenty of organizations like Governments, global tech companies, perhaps medical and healthcare, and others who will simply not use Zoom because of security and privacy concerns.

I’m not worried about Zoom even with these security and privacy reports. I say that knowing full well that without standard security and entrenched encryption in place they will not land certain customers, but the market is big enough for all the players now seeing tremendous growth like Microsoft with Teams (they need to kill skype), Cisco with WebEx, Google Hangouts/Meet, etc.

Zoom’s lesson is that a user-focused approach where ease of use is central is the quickest way to land and expand your customer base. But, the lesson is also to consider how much of a pure enterprise company you want to be as you start. Zoom, I think, also wants a pure consumer play, and because of that, there will be some tradeoffs they will make.

PC Hardware Surges
In a turn of events, no one saw coming, nor could have predicted, the PC ecosystem is surging. At a time when smartphone demand is at an absolute abysmal low, the good old PC and its ecosystem of monitors, mice, keyboards, and other accessories (beauty lights and external cameras) are surging.

I first got wind of this weeks ago when talking with those in the PC supply chain and then double confirmed it with the PC OEMs we work with. All of them are seeing a surge of demand as corporations are refreshing machines quicker than normal to get employees the hardware they need to

Further confirmation came from our friendly NPD analyst Stephen Baker who published a brief report today highlighting surging sales they see from retail and B2B resellers they track.

So why is this interesting? When we step back and look at the big picture and the potential trends and market place changes, knowing that PC demand and a flurry of work from home accessories are surging, it emphasizes the point that more corporations and individuals will have adequate hardware solutions in place to embrace more remote working as needed or demanded.

Once companies make this shift, as they are forced to know, there will be new processes and new comfort levels of the business and its employees. I’ve long said that people should not have to come to the office every day, and or they should be able to live where they want and still be an integral part of their team. What we are witnessing right now is going to make this possible.

There are so many positives that come out of this reality. Not only killing traffic in metro areas but cutting down on pollution, companies not needing as much real-estate, the development of other areas and city economies not located on the coasts, etc.

The other thing I’m wondering is if people are starting to build new habits with their PCs again now that they are being used for more than just work at a workplace but also at home and in kid’s education. This is purely a hypothesis to watch I’m pointing out, but we know smartphones were stealing tasks from PCs on the homefront, and I wonder if now PCs will start to steal some time back going forward.

Microsoft 365 Shift Demonstrates Evolution of Cloud-Based Services

If there’s one piece of software that has held up remarkably well over several decades, it’s Microsoft’s Office suite of productivity apps. From business to personal life, the applications in Office have proven their value time and time again to people all over the world. Perhaps because of that, Microsoft has used Office as a means to push forward the definition of what software is, how it should be delivered, how it should be sold, what platforms it should run on, and much more over the last decade or so.

In June of 2011, for example, the company officially unveiled Office 365, which provided access to all the same applications in the regular suite but in a subscription-like “service” form that was delivered (and updated) via the internet. Since then, the company has added new features and functions to the service, made it available to mobile platforms such as Android and iOS, in addition to Windows and MacOS, and generally used it as a means to expand how people think about applications they use on a regular basis. In the process, Microsoft has made many people comfortable with the idea of cloud-based software becoming a cloud-based service.

Yesterday, the company took the next step in the evolution of the product and renamed the consumer, as well as the small and medium business versions of Office 365 to Microsoft 365—changes that will all occur on April 21. The name change is obviously a subtle one, but beyond the title, the changes run much deeper. Specifically, the new brand reflects how the set of applications that make up the company’s popular subscription-based offering is evolving. It also reflects how the company itself is changing.

In the case of the SMB versions of Microsoft 365, the name change is simply a branding one, which better reflects that the service includes more than just basic office productivity, particularly with the Teams collaboration tools and service. For the new consumer-oriented Personal and Family versions of Microsoft 365, the changes are more extensive.

Notably, the consumer versions of Microsoft 365 include the addition of several new applications, a number of AI-powered intelligent enhancements to existing applications and—in an important first for Microsoft—some mobile-first advancements. The new version of the Microsoft Editor function works across Word, Outlook.com, and the web, and is essentially a Grammarly competitor that moves beyond simple spell and grammar checking to making AI-powered rewriting suggestions, avoiding plagiarism and more.

The AI-based Designer feature in PowerPoint—which I have found to be incredibly useful—has been enhanced in this latest version of Microsoft 365 to support a wider array of content that it can “beautify” and includes support for a greatly expanded library of supplementary graphics, videos, fonts and templates.
The biggest change to Excel is the forthcoming addition of Money for Excel, an add-in that gives it Quicken-like money and account management features. In addition, working in conjunction with Wolfram Alpha, Microsoft is adding in support for over 100 new “smart” data types that makes it significantly easier to track everything from calories to travel locations and more. In essence, it provides the type of intelligence that people may have expected computing devices and applications to have all along.

The addition of both Teams (for Consumers) and Family Safety are interesting because of the capabilities they bring to the service and because both will launch first on mobile OSes—Android and iOS. Microsoft has had mobile versions of its main productivity suite apps, as well as its One Drive storage service for a while now, but this Microsoft 365 launch marks the first time the company will debut new apps in mobile form. On the one hand, the move is logical and not terribly surprising given how much people use their mobile devices today—particularly for communications and tracking, which are the core functions of Teams and Family Safety respectively. Nevertheless, it’s still noteworthy, because it does show how Microsoft has been able to pivot on its typical “deliver on PC first” strategy and keep itself as relevant as possible.

In the case of Teams, the company isn’t replicating its Enterprise version, but instead has developed a consumer-focused edition that allows for real-time chats, document sharing, creating and tracking lists, and more in a manner that should make sense for most consumers. Family Safety is completely new and allows parents to provide limits and controls on digital device usage and content, as well as track the physical location and even driving of other family members. Importantly, Microsoft made the point to say that it’s doing all these things without sharing (or certainly not selling) any of this information to auto insurance companies, advertisers or any other companies. While the company would have undoubtedly created a bit of an outcry if it did any of that, it was still reassuring to hear a big tech vendor emphasize these privacy and security-focused concerns. Let’s hope all major tech vendors follow suit.

Speaking of privacy and security, Microsoft took the opportunity with its Microsoft 365 launch announcement to also unveil the latest version of Microsoft Edge, the company’s significantly improved browser. In addition to several convenience-based features, such as the addition of vertical tabs, smart copying from web pages, and the ability to easily create portable “collections” of content from web-based sources, the company debuted some important privacy features as well. Password Monitor, for example, can automatically track whether any of your logins are available on the dark web and encourage you to change your passwords on sites where that may have occurred. Given the huge number of security breaches and data exposure that have impacted almost all of us at this point, this could prove to be an incredibly valuable new feature. In addition, the company added refined tracking controls that allows you to set the amount information you are willing to share with other websites as a result of your browsing sessions.

All told, it was a pretty impressive set of announcements that highlights how Microsoft has managed to continue adjusting its strategies to match the changing needs of the market and its customers. Of course, many consumers will still be content using the free versions of the basic Office applications and services that Microsoft will continue to make available even after April 21. However, the functionality that the company has built into its new Microsoft 365 Personal and Family offerings will be compelling enough for many to make the switch, and the success that the Office suite of applications has enjoyed for so long will continue with the new Microsoft 365.

Could VR Gain Traction with Consumers During Covid-19 Lockdown?

Last week I wrote about the potential of VR video conferences becoming a possibility in the future. My view of VR specifically is that it is a technology that is optimal for vertical markets like manufacturing, utilities, military, airlines, etc. Even VR video conferencing falls into my definition of vertical markets. I know that VR games have driven sales of VR headsets, and while that is a large market, it still falls under my view of vertical markets because it does not bring VR to the masses.

Based on years of research on AR and VR, I have felt that AR and VR were really different approaches to mixed reality and that it would be AR that would eventually bring mixed reality to the masses. I still hold that view and believe that Apple will eventually be the company that, with whatever AR headset with apps and service model they create, will be the one that actually gets mixed reality to the broader public.

However, now that I am at home and can finally spend more time using a VR specific headset like the Oculus Quest, I find myself using one particular VR application a lot. This app is related to travel, and more specifically, travelogues and travel-related documentaries and travel educational VR programs.

Now I admit that part of why this fascinates me is that I have traveled for 39 years as part of my job and visited over 50 countries in my work. This has created a travel bug in me that is pretty active. While I do enjoy not traveling at the moment, I found that I still would like the travel experience but without getting on planes or trains.

I had used VR travel apps in other VR headsets, but the Oculus Quest is a step above the lower cost VR headsets I have used in the past. It is no wonder that Oculus Quest headsets are on backorder now, as it appears that a lot of people have bought them during their stay-at-home experience.

Although I have used this VR headset for other apps, including some games, it is the travel apps that I think make VR quite attractive for a broader audience than just verticals.

One travel app that came up in the initial tutorial when I fired up the Oculus Quest was a virtual tour of the fire-ravaged Notre Dame Cathedral. I had seen pictures of the damage on the outside, but this tour took me inside the church and walked me through the damage, floor by floor. I have spent a lot of time in Paris and know well the history and layout of Notre Dame.

I actually spent a large part of a day once exploring every space I could go that had public access and became very familiar with its iconic relics, crips, and statues. With this virtual 360 demo, I was able to walk down the center aisle, which I have done over a dozen times and see the damage in the main church. The tour then took us up to the roof where the Spire had been and could look down o the damage from this viewpoint.

When my son Ben was 15, I decided we needed to do something that created a tighter bond. For most of his life, I was on the road, and one summer, I took extra time off, and the two of us got certified as scuba divers. We were privileged to be able to do dives in the Florida Keys and many dives in Hawaii. I even did a shark dive in the Bahamas, which was quite an experience in its own right since this dive was not in a cage.

One particular diving experience in Hawaii was when we would find a group of turtles and literally swim with them about 10 feet away, gliding through the clear blue waters as these turtles swam looking for food.

It turns out that swimming with turtles in VR delivers a very similar experience. The only difference is that I don’t have to put on scuba gear and can do this from an easy chair in my study. Because this is a 360 VR experience, it feels exactly as if I am in the waters with the turtles and swimming beside them. The first time I used this app, it brought back great memories but was, in a sense, a bit spooky too.

One other travel app that I really like is related to food. One of my favorite food cities in the world is Singapore. There are multiple VR ravel apps that bring me to what they call the “Hawker Centers,” which are city created areas with food stalls that serve incredible food at very low prices. There are dozens of these hawker stalls and special food markets, and these VR apps can take you right to these areas and make you feel like you are there in person.

I have spent many hours in the hawker centers and markets in Singapore, and being able to walk through these stalls and markets is a great experience minus the ability to go and eat at the various food stalls in person. In fact, the VR travel apps can take you to food markets all over the world, and even if you have never been to them in person, it is an educational experience in its own right where you can learn about a countries foodways and culture.

I have looked at most of the various predictions on VR and don’t believe that VR by itself is the virtual approach that will drive mixed reality to a broad consumer market. I still believe that AR and some form of AR and VR will eventually have the killer apps that make virtual reality a mainstream technology.

But my experience with the Oculus Quest has given me a new perspective, and with the right apps, such as games, travel, and entertainment, VR dedicated headsets will draw interest from most likely an early adopter community that in itself is millions of people. However, an AR focused mixed reality solution to me is still that one virtual reality technology that has the greatest chance of bringing a mass consumer audience to the mixed reality virtual experience.

I just don’t think VR alone will do this. While it may take another few years to get the right mix of AR glasses or goggles and apps that make AR very consumer-focused, I know that Apple, Google, and Samsung see AR as the next big thing in virtual reality and are working hard on making the right products and apps that could eventually bring mixed reality to a mass consumer market.

Podcast: Technology and Remote Education

Ben Bajarin and Carolina Milanesi are joined by special guest Dr. Mitchell Salerno who is head of school at Monta Vista Christian School.

They discuss the school’s rapid transition to distance learning, the role technology played, and challenges and opportunities learned from distance learning.

Subscribe on your favorite podcast client or Apple iTunes Podcasts.

Apple Watch and Other Health Tech During Pandemics

As I wrote the other day, I like to look at things in the big picture. As I do that, one thing I’m certain of is something like this will happen again, and it will likely happen sooner than people think. Which got me to thinking, how can health-related technology help play a role in early identification and even protection? Naturally, that got me thinking about Apple Watch.

You may or may not have seen some timely marketing data from a company called Kinsa that makes a smart/connected thermometer. Kinsa positions itself as a public health company dedicated to providing the knowledge, guidance, and tools to keep communities healthy. During this time of COVID-19, they have been using data gathered via randomized and anonymized samples of specific regions in the US to track fevers. They blanket this under their initiative to track Flu-like symptoms in country regions, but since fever is an indicator of worsening symptoms of COVID-19, this works in their favor.

Here, they share a link showing how fevers have varied in certain areas where social distancing was implemented sooner. It is designed to show how places that hunkered down and people groups who limited interaction with others did have an impact on the health of a community.

The challenge with the data is generally high-income class groups, and more tech-forward people are going to have a Kinsa smart thermometer. So while the data is relevant, it is also indicative of a social base who would have hunkered down early and whose employment likely allowed them to do so. It is not totally representative data, but that does not mean it doesn’t prove the right point.

That being said, their motivation is directionally correct and highlights a specific point about how health data can help us detect and even prevent the spread of contagious diseases.

More data and more Sensors
This whole situation has actually got me thinking even more deeply about Apple Watch’s vision as an intelligent guardian of our health. The Apple Watch currently can’t play much a role to help early detection of things like Flu or even a new virus-like COVID-19. But what if it could? There are other sensors we expect to see Apple Watch include, a blood oxygen monitoring via a pulse oximeter is one of them, but what if Apple could figure out how to measure other things, maybe even temperature via the wrist or via the ears/face?

What if AirPods and eventually AR glasses can help monitor vitals in our ears and face that can now detect any range of things as a platform for preventative health? We know the ears offer unique benefits for measuring heart rate and temperature, so that seems possible. But obviously, our eyes are another indicator of health and wellness. I had thought about AirPods as a health platform but not something like AR glasses until today.

What you can see happening is a comprehensive computing solution emerging that is the combination of sensors on wrist, ears, and eyes/face that are not just good for potential computing applications but a much richer solution for health and wellness as well.

Going beyond the benefits of this to a single human, the Kinsa example shows how health-related data tracking is useful for early identification and spread of infectious disease in a community. This would be an opportunity for Apple as well if the sensors are there. Even just looking at the benefits to flu season seems an incredible opportunity.

I can imagine getting a warning that flu-like symptoms are spreading more rapidly in my area and then be encouraged to practice some social distancing while out and about and perhaps be overly rigorous in my personal cleanliness. Although I’m a germaphobe, so I already obsess over hand washing and using hand sanitizer. But many aren’t, and warning and detection can help remind others to be more aware and, in general help slow or stop the spread of something like the Flu.

Going beyond that, I’d love to see how sensors we wear, or use like a Kinsa thermometer, can help detect anomalies earlier and perhaps get the right health organizations early data to start digging into the potential spread of something we don’t see coming. This could be everything from anomalies in a group of people’s heart rate, temperature, oxygen levels, etc.. Still, the point being early detection of something via health sensor data would do wonders for our world going forward.

I’ve been slowly convinced that nearly every person on the planet, in developed parts of the world, will someday wear some health tech on their body. Even if it isn’t a smartwatch, I’m now certain some technology will find itself onto every human that plays a role in health monitoring and preventative health. This current pandemic certainly shines a light on the reality and need for such solutions, but the data is too valuable to us individually and as a community. Particularly when you realize something like this will happen again, and again, and again.

Some “Lighter Side” Headlines For the Coronavirus Era

For most of us, the past couple of weeks have been ‘all coronavirus all the time’, whether personally, professionally, or financially. I just looked at my work e-mail inbox, and 80% of messages have COVID-19 in the subject line. So it’s time to take a break from adding to the chorus of bleak forecasts or recommendations on what XYZ company should do. With April Fools approaching, here’s an attempted humorous take at some of the headlines we might see coming out of the tech and telecom worlds over the next couple of weeks.

WeWork To Change Its Name to iWork. With nearly all co-working places closed worldwide and the massive shift to working remotely, the company has been advised that anything connoted to the concept of ‘We’ will take an even bigger chunk out of WeWork’s ongoing valuation freefall. Adam Neumann, the company’s beleaguered former CEO, has suggested that the stock symbol for its future IPO should be just “I”, rather than “WE”.

Apple Temporarily Disabling Screen Time Feature. Nearly two years ago, Apple introduced a feature called Screen Time, to help customers take control over how much time they’re spending on their various iDevices. But with the kids at home for an extended period and parents also pulling their hair out, Apple has decided it’s better for everyone’s mental health if they just simply don’t see that their usage across all screens roughly mirrors the hockey-stick-like surge in confirmed coronavirus cases.

New TV Show To Debut on Netflix: “Billionaire Island”. Part ‘Survivor’ and part ‘Hunger Games’, this new series puts 12 tech billionaires infected with coronavirus on an island, without any access to PPEs or ventilators. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have signed on as advisors to the show, and, as one would expect, they’ve designed some interesting challenges and plot twists.

Secret Emerges in DISH offer to Lend Spectrum to T-Mobile. DISH’s offer let T-Mobile use a chunk of its 600 MHz spectrum for free in order to help meet network capacity demands in the coming weeks is laudable. Many were surprised, however, since DISH has been hoarding its spectrum for years. We’ve since learned that in a break during the negotiations between DISH and T-Mobile that helped get the Sprint deal done, John Legere challenged Charlie Ergen (a famous poker player) to a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, using spectrum channels rather than dollars, as currency. The evening ended with Legere up about 30 MHz.

Alexa To Be Used to Help Identify Those With Coronavirus. The shortage of test kits for the coronavirus continues to be a serious problem. But tech companies are stepping up. In his news conference yesterday, President Trump announced a new arrangement with Amazon, whereby anyone who says “I might have coronavirus” within earshot of Alexa will be entered into a national database, as a first step in determining who should get tested. The president added “If  Amazon does a good job, we might take another look at that JEDI contract”.

Fund Managers Start Shorting Netflix Stock. This might seem like a counterintuitive move, since it appears that we’re all homebound for the long haul. However, it’s possible that we’ll have cycled through pretty much everything Netflix has to offer — something that until recently seemed mathematically impossible — which could lead to significant numbers of subscribers dumping Netflix once they’re actually allowed to go.out.again.

Airlines Will Make a Huge Comeback…With $1,000 Bag Fees. Airlines are the good cop/bad cop of corporate America. During the past ten flush years, they’ve done nearly everything possible to make the flying experience less pleasant. Now, they’re being all nicey-nicey, waiving change fees, cancel fees, and baiting you with $30 fares to Hawaii. But when flying returns, you can bet that they’ll be looking at all sorts of creative ways to recoup their losses. We hear they’re considering $1,000 bag fees, surcharges for crying children, and huge fines for anyone boarding a plane with so much as a runny nose.

Facebook to Relaunch Facebook Dating as A Virtual Service. Facebook received a huge amount of bad press when it launched the Facebook Dating app not long after CEO Mark Zuckerberg was summoned to testify in front of Congress about customer privacy concerns. Predictably, the app has not been a standout success. However, we hear that Facebook has pivoted and is re-casting Facebook Dating for the coronavirus era. In a press release, the company said, “Our whole company was built on the basis of people virtually, rather than actually, interacting. Facebook Dating is the logical extension of that, and is perfect for these times, since people can only virtually, and not actually, date”.

Two New Coronavirus-Era Reality Shows Being Rushed to Market:

  • ‘Zoom Bloopers’, Hulu. Next week will mark the debut of the show on Hulu. Zoom users — who now equal about 100% of the U.S. population — will be asked to send in videos of their favorite Zoom fails and embarrassing moments. Categories include: Most Embarrassing Unmute Moment; Worst Audio of the Week; Most Distracting Behavior by a Child During a Work-From-Home Zoom Call;  Best Example of Someone Getting Frustrated Learning How the F___ To Use This Thing;  and You Shoulda Left the Camera Off.
  • ‘Work From Home War Stories’, Netflix. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide who have never worked from home are now getting adjusted to this new reality. Well, this sure works better for some than others. Sketches for the first couple of episodes include: WFH Will Ruin My Marriage; Odd Spaces for Home Offices; Sweatpants Are The New ‘Business Casual’; One Thousand Ways to Distract Your Kids So You Can Actually Work For Ten Minutes; These Types of Classes Just Don’t Work For Online Learning; and Foods Not To Eat While On a Conference Call. People will be able to nominate their colleagues for a special award, to be given at the end of each episode: Least Effective Home Worker Of The Week

Stay safe, stay healthy, and stay sane.

Creativity in Times of Chaos

I’ll be honest, it is hard to keep writing these days as it seems like the world is burning down. It’s hard not to watch the news or keep checking Twitter in the hopes of some good news in containing this virus and all the while just seeing more chaos. I truly hope everyone is taking mental health in these times as seriously as physical health.

My brain naturally looks for big picture observations and patterns. Many of the patterns I’ve talked about have been about the broader trend with remote work, what we can learn, and how we can use this situation to shape us better as humans, society, governments, and businesses going forward.

One of the more interesting things I’ve seen is how businesses, particularly those in the services economy, are adapting to stay in business and keep their workers employed.

These are exceptional times, and I’ve been encouraged by the quick and creative adaptations of many companies. As a consumer, I have noticed many of my favorite brands doing unique offers right now, some doing things they have never done before. A random anecdote is one of my favorite breweries in Santa Rosa called Russian River Brewing offered to ship bottles of some of their famous, and very hard to find beers to fans. They brew several beers recognized in the top 20 beers of the world, and my personal favorite, Pliny the Elder, is very hard to find. They are struggling, so they offered to sell 12 packs and ship to consumers for the first time ever, and they sold the deal out in 4 hours. I jumped on this deal early as it was a total win-win for both parties. This is a simple example of many we are seeing as workers in food services.

Airlines are having to pivot to use their planes for cargo delivery during less travel and minimizing routes. Elon Musk, begrudgingly, shifted resources from making Teslas to making respirators. I even saw on the news today Tito’s vodka is using their knowledge of distilling alcohol to make hand sanitizer. Clothing makers are pivoting to help make masks for hospitals and healthcare workers.

It’s also been fascinating to see local and boutique retailers now get set up online, mostly with Shopify, which is why their stock price is, growing. I’ve seen friends on Facebook or Twitter, all promoting local retailers making unique products and now offering online in order to save their business.

Out of trying situations, people are being creative and in the process, many of their businesses may be better for it. This forced change among businesses, companies, governments, etc., is disrupting the status quo and out of that disruption may come needed change. Whether it is an evaluation of old processes, or technologies, business models, etc., many are having to move fast and adapt to the new way of doing business, at least for a prolonged period of time.

I’m trying to round up more stories of this creativity in chaos. If you know of any send them over to me. But this remains one of the small things helping to give me hope during these trying times. We, humans, are creative, and in many cases, it is inspiring to see so many people willing to help each other during times of crisis.

The Time for Pragmatism in Tech is Now

The tech industry has always prided itself—and for good reason—on describing and building products, services, and even business models that look to the future. In fact, the technologies behind many of today’s advances are arguably helping define our future. Because of that, it’s become quite normal to think and talk about these developments as having to unfold over the course of several years before their true impact can be accurately measured.

But the COVID-19 crisis is focusing a dramatically different lens on many of these efforts and forcing companies to think (and act) on completely different timelines. It’s also getting people to think differently about what technology products can and can’t do for them, which is leading to some important reassessments of what really matters as well as what’s truly useful and what isn’t. Frankly, in many instances, it’s a rethinking that’s been overdue.

Reassessing and/or revising expectations has some potentially profound implications for tech companies, which can then smartly recognize ways they can shift both their messaging and even their product strategies. It also opens up some interesting opportunities to make meaningful improvements in existing products. Last, but certainly not least, it also provides an incredible opportunity for at least some portion of the tech industry to turn the increasingly negative narrative about big tech around and to reposition the tech industry as a beneficent force that can help improve our society and our world.

Thankfully, the manifestations of these new approaches are already starting to happen in both big ways and small. T-Mobile, for example, quickly got the FCC to give its approval for what’s called Temporary Spectrum Access to increase the available bandwidth they had at 600 MHz—which the company uses for both 4G and 5G service—by essentially “borrowing” unused spectrum from Dish and Comcast. Because T-Mobile had already built-up a good part of its network infrastructure for its 5G deployment, it was able to move much more quickly than it would have otherwise been able to. In addition, the company followed up this week by also launching a new low-cost ($15/month) plan sooner than originally planned. For their part, both AT&T and Verizon also joined in the FCC’s Keep Americans Connected Pledge and made similar efforts of their own to increase available bandwidth, remove data caps for broadband services, pledge not to turn off connectivity plans due to financial hardship caused by the crisis, and more.

Collectively, these quick efforts showed the telecom industry as a whole to be very responsive and sensitive to the issues at hand, all of which should certainly go a long way in improving consumers’ perception of them. Throw in the fact that, as of now, the critical telecom and data delivery infrastructure has held up remarkably well given the huge increase in traffic it’s had to deal with from the many people working and living exclusively at home, and it’s arguably been an impressive week or two for the telecom industry.

Yet another interesting example and set of data comes from Cisco, whose equipment powers large segments of these infrastructure networks. On a call with Cisco executives and CEO Chuck Robbins, the company talked about having to approach these network loads in entirely different ways than they had in the past. Rather than taking a more systematic approach to problem solving, they freely discussed having to make adjustments in real time—a clearly different approach to what they’d done in the past, and yet, based on what we’ve been experiencing, a successful one.

Not surprisingly, the Cisco execs also discussed the incredibly robust demand they’ve seen for their networking products—every company is looking to their bandwidth—as well as the enormous traffic increase (up to 24x) that they’ve seen for their Webex videoconferencing and remote collaboration services. Clearly, these are things that companies need immediately, so Cisco’s ability to adjust its own networks on the fly to meet these huge demands speaks volumes about the pragmatic approach the company is taking to address these issues. One interesting side note from the Cisco call was that the vast majority of Webex client software downloads was for PCs over smartphones, once again highlighting the real-world value that PCs (laptops in particular) continue to play.

In a different and yet thematically related development, IBM, along with a number of government labs and technology partners like HPE, made the decision to open up access to many of the world’s fast and most powerful supercomputers to scientists who are working to battle the virus. It was a smart, fast, pragmatic decision that serves an incredibly important cause and highlights, in a very public way, the efforts that IBM is making to assist in whatever way it can.
Of course, many other tech companies also announced their own efforts to address some of the concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has created. In fact, as a long-time industry observer, it was very encouraging and even heartwarming to see how much concern that the tech industry was displaying. While it may prove to be short-lived, there also seems to be much more willingness for companies to consider partnering with each other to help create new solutions that, in otherwise normal times, might not happen.

Even with these efforts to provide quick benefits, however, the new “normal” has made it clear that much work still needs to be done, particularly in making some tech products and services easier to use. Case in point: given the huge increase in video calls that I and most other people are now experiencing, it’s easy to find instances in applications like videoconferencing that need to be improved—and quickly. If you’ve ever suffered through trying to troubleshoot your audio and video connections for these calls, for example (and let’s be honest, who hasn’t), then you understand the need. Something as obvious as having a button on the main page of an online service or in the launch screen of a videoconferencing app to let you test your connection (or even better, to use some kind of AI or other software intelligence to fix it automatically), without having to log-in to an account or find the buried preference settings, seems like a very easy thing to do, yet, it’s just not there. These are the kind of small pragmatic differences that companies should also be thinking about.

To be clear, the more pragmatic approach to creating, marketing, and even selling tech products that the COVID-19 pandemic is forcing upon us doesn’t have to come completely at the expense of forward-looking technology advances. The R&D-focused efforts within the tech industry that are enabling things like quantum computing, or the latest neuromorphic chips that Intel recently unveiled, remain an absolutely essential and defining part of the business. The difference now, and likely into the foreseeable future, is really more one of focus and emphasis. Companies need to look much harder at the types of changes they can make here and now both to existing products and upcoming products. I’d argue that the tech industry had gone a little too far down the path of promising long-term revolutions without thinking enough about short-term implications. If nothing else, I expect that one of the more important outcomes that will linger on after we pass this crisis will be more attention to what kind of ideas, products, and services make a difference in the near-term—not just in some far off “vision” for where things might go.

Of course, it’s also important to remember that necessity is the mother of invention, and there are likely few times in recorded history when the necessity of thinking and acting differently has been more urgent. As a result, an even more important silver lining from our current crisis is that we will soon start to see and enjoy the inventive benefits of many of the most brilliant minds in the world who are spending their time thinking, from a present-focused pragmatic perspective, about how to solve many types of tech-related problems both big and small. It’s not clear when, how, or in what exact form those innovations will appear, but I have absolutely no doubt that they will arrive and that we will all benefit from them.

Podcast: Apple Product Launch, Sony PS5 and Microsoft Xbox X, Intel Neuromorphic Chip

This week’s Techpinions podcast features Carolina Milanesi and Bob O’Donnell analyzing Apple’s surprise launch of their new iPad Pro, Magic Keyboard, and updated Macbook Air and Mac Mini, discussing the product spec reveal this week of the forthcoming AMD-powered PS5 and Xbox X gaming consoles, and chatting about the innovations enabled with Intel’s latest neuromorphic chip.

Is VR and AR Video Conferencing a Killer App for This Nascent Market?

Now that many people have to work from home, they are using tools like Web-Ex, Google Hangouts, and other collaboration tools to work with colleagues from disparate locations more frequently.

I have used these forms of collaboration tools for years, and while they work, I am not a big fan of their poor ease of use and UI. That is not to say they are not useful tools, but these apps often have issues when it comes to logging into a conference as well as how well they work in presentation mode.

Another tool that makes it possible for us to work at home and in remote offices around the world effectively is video conferencing. Zoom, Skype video, and others are taking off now and enabling us to connect in new and more personal ways.

However, while these tools also work, especially in face to face video meetings, I find that video conferencing with a lot of people, especially if the video is on participants, is very distracting. I have done a few of these types of video conferences lately, and I turn my camera off intentionally to not be a distraction to others during the meeting.

One thing that strikes me about using these tools at home to have meetings, make presentations and conduct effective interaction is that the face-to-face discussions are still the best way to get the most out of a meeting. I realize that my view is controversial, especially to a younger generation who can even conduct meetings via texting, however when I am in a meeting with my customers and face-to-face, we do get a lot done.

When Facebook bought Oculus, one of the key reasons was for them to create a virtual room where people could sit around a table, or sofa’s in living rooms and communicate in real-time. The early version had what I would call crude avatars represent a person in these rooms.

Eventually, Facebook created Spaces and Oculus rooms, which were exciting but never took off. At Facebook’s developer conference last summer, they replaced these rooms with Facebook Horizon.

Engadget wrote about Horizons and shared the following:

“In Horizon, you’ll be able to create an avatar that, bizarrely, won’t have any legs. You can then use portals (or “telepods”) to make your way to public spaces such as a town square. Horizon will offer exploration and games, along with ways to build communities through groups and events.

“Everyone will have the power to build new worlds and activities, from tropical hangout spots to interactive action arenas, all from scratch — no previous coding experience needed,” Oculus stated in a blog post. “Whether people choose to build, play, or simply hang out, Horizon will ensure a welcoming environment through new safety tools and human guides — Horizon Locals — to answer questions and provide assistance, if needed.”

I realize Horizon is focused on consumers, but it represents an example of using a virtual world for people to get together. And it would not be a stretch of the imagination for Facebook to eventually evolve this platform to include virtual conference rooms that include real live video meetings that have a background that could replicate any company’s conference rooms or even auditoriums.

Another company is creating an AR-mixed reality app that, according to their site, can teleport your presence anywhere. It will let people “Meet with anyone, anywhere in the world as if you were in the same room. Your meetings will jump to life with spatial audio and 3d telepresence that feels like being face to face.”

The company is called Spatial and I encourage you to check out their demo on their home page. It is awe-inspiring and could become a killer app for AR and VR with companies who would prefer meeting as if they are still in the room but piped in virtually from all over the world.

Since I have had more time at home due to the work at home and shelter in place edicts, I have been spending more time on my Oculus Quest VR headset. I Used the original Oculus Go for a year, but the Quest is so superior to the first model that it has changed my view of VR. I had felt that it was a technology that would have greater acceptance in vertical markets and gaming.

I have been using it for streaming videos and many VR travelogues, especially the ones that put me in the location being shown, such as an African Safari and scuba diving with turtles.

One of the most exciting travel videos is the restoration of Notre Dame in Paris. I have been to Notre Dame well over a dozen times and combed it from top to bottom. To walk through the main sanctuary and see up through its roof where the spire once stood was fascinating. The videographer made the tour so realistic in VR mode that one feels like you are there while watching it thousands of miles away.

While the Oculus Quest is still more of a consumer product since it excels in VR gaming, you can see that VR headsets are moving in the right direction. I can see them delivering broader-based applications like VR-AR video conferencing, which could become a killer app that makes VR-AR headsets indispensable to businesses sometime in the future.

Apple’s Quiet Launch Brings Welcome Updates

Apple skipped the virtual press event and launched its latest updates to the iPad Pro, MacBook Air, and Mac Mini via press release. Without executives on stage, it may have felt like a quiet launch, but Apple is delivering some key updates here that should make some serious noise in the market.

iPad Pro with LiDAR Scanner
Apple continues to iterate on its world-class iPad Pro form factor. The latest 11- and 12.9-inch versions of the high-end tablet feature a new A12Z Bionic chip, a Pro camera system with a 12MP Wide and a 10MP Ultra Wide camera, and five studio-quality microphones. Perhaps the most notable new hardware feature is the LiDAR Scanner, which Apple says can measure the distance to surrounding objects up to five meters away. The company says the scanner, combined with the new camera and new computer vision algorithms on the A12Z, will drive improved augmented reality experiences.

Rumors last year suggested that Apple had hoped to add the LiDAR Scanner to at least one version of the iPhone, but it wasn’t yet ready. Its inclusion here suggests we can expect to see it ship on one or more of this year’s phones, too (although its placement where the iPhone Pro’s current third lens resides brings up some interesting questions). LiDAR is short for Light Detection and Ranging, and I’m a little surprised Apple marketing didn’t come up with a better name for its version of this technology. Others have called similar technologies “time of flight” sensors, which isn’t much more user friendly. While the naming isn’t sexy, the capabilities should be. Essentially the LiDAR Scanner should drive much more robust AR experiences on the device. Apple points to instant AR placement, improved motion capture, and people occlusion.

I’m pleased to see Apple continuing to push forward with AR methodically. These new hardware features, coupled with continued updates to iPadOS, should result in some of the best AR experiences you can have on a handheld device. It will be interesting to see how developers utilize these new features to improve their existing apps and create new ones. It’s worth noting that mobile devices like the iPad also continue to be a primary way many enterprise organizations are testing the waters of AR usage. I expect commercial-focused SDKs and applications—such as PTC’s Vuforia Engine and Vuforia Studio—will begin to leverage these new features straight away.

The other big iPad-related announcement was the addition of touchpad support to iPadOS and a supporting product, called the Magic Keyboard, which is due to ship in May. The Magic Keyboard may well represent the most wished-for product of many die-hard iPad loyalists. It attaches to the iPad Pro via magnets, and it allows for screen angle adjustments. In addition to the all-important touchpad, it includes scissor mechanism keys (with 1mm of travel) and—super importantly—a Type C USB port for charging that leaves the existing iPad Type C port open for accessories.

I can’t wait to try out the new Magic Keyboard, and I’m pleased to see that it will work with existing iPad Pro models. From a design perspective—and without having used it yet—the biggest issue I have is that Apple continues to leave out a place to store the Apple Pencil securely. I’ve been using a $10 case that brilliantly holds the pencil where it can charge, and it never falls off in my bag. Microsoft cleverly addressed this same issue with its Surface Pro X Signature keyboard. It boggles my mind that Apple won’t make this simple feature available in its cases. Beyond that design issue, my other biggest quibble is Apple’s pricing for the Magic Keyboard, which starts at $299. Yes, there are some great new features in the product, and I rarely criticize Apple for its premium pricing, but that price tag is too high. Yes, Microsoft charges $269 for the Surface Pro X Signature keyboard, but that price includes the Slim Pen, whereas you must buy the Apple Pencil 2 separately from Apple for another $119. That means, all in, a new entry-level 11-inch iPad Pro with all the accessories will cost $1,167. That feels too high at a time when iPadOS still feels like a work in progress. Will I buy one? Yes. But at $299, it feels as if Apple missed an opportunity to cast a wider net with this product launch.

Updated MacBook Air, Mac Mini
I’m not happy with Apple’s Magic Keyboard pricing for the iPad Pro, but I am pleased that the company lowered the starting price for its updated MacBook Air to $999. The new notebook features the new Magic Keyboard, faster Intel processors, and a new base-level storage allotment of 256GB.

Each of these new additions is incredibly important. One by one, Apple is replacing the products in its lineup that shipped with the former flawed keyboard design, and now its entry-level buyers can once again buy a notebook with a keyboard that should last the lifetime of the device. The processor upgrade is also huge and moves the lineup from Intel’s 8th generation to its 10th generation products. Apple says to expect a 2X performance boost plus 80% faster graphics. The $999 product is a 1.1GHz dual-core Intel Core i3 processor; an extra $100 buys the 1.1-GHz i5, or $250 buys you a 1.2-GHz i7.

Apple also updated the Mac mini, increasing the storage of the starting $799 product to include 256GB instead of the previous 128GB. I’m happy to see Apple showing the mini some love again, although I would have liked to see a processor bump here, too.

A Strong Lineup in Uncertain Times
As we head into the second quarter of the year, Apple’s iPad and Mac lineups are looking quite robust. Pricing complaints aside, the iPad Pro continues to be one of the most technically impressive hardware products on the planet. iPad OS still needs work, but I’m hoping to see it evolve into something on par with the hardware in the next 18-24 months. The new MacBook Air addresses some of the primary issues many people had about the product and should return it to its former “easy recommendation” status. And more storage for the Mac Mini is a plus.

The real question Apple faces–along with the rest of the technology industry—is what the market will look like for the remainder of the year. As an increasing number of countries move to address the ongoing threat of COVID-19, we already see dramatically negative impacts on the world economy. While we’ve seen an early surge in technology buying as consumers and companies buy products to facilitate working and educating at home, we’re likely to see a significant slowdown in the coming months as everyone waits to see how things play out. Strange times, indeed.
As we find our way forward, please be kind to each other and stay safe.

The iPad Pivot, Apple Slaying Sacred Cows

A few weeks ago, it seems like a year ago now, I wrote about how the rumors of iPad getting a mouse/trackpad would be a pivot from the iPad’s original positioning. I still believe that is true. However, there is a better point to make now that we have seen the new iPad Pro and the new Keyboard with a trackpad for iPad.

Overall the new iPad is a nice upgrade. The LiDAR camera is interesting as it provides a new level of capabilities in-depth mapping, and we can expect that to come to iPhones before too long. But the talk is really about the new Magic Keyboard.

I have wanted a better iPad Keyboard since day one. I’ve tried practically every third party solution out there time and time again and never found one that was right. When it came to tablet-like devices, I have always agreed with my colleague Carolina Milanesi that Surface Pro sets the bar with their keyboard, not their trackpad but their keyboard. That is why I’m extremely interested in trying the new Magic Keyboard for iPad Pro.

The biggest benefit to choosing my iPad to my Mac was portability. When I go out to meetings or travel, etc., I like to travel light, and the iPad has always been the best device fro Apple that combined productivity and portability. Note, I said the best device from Apple because, as I highlighted in the article last week, I’ve also been using Surface Pro X more in travel situations. Granted, no one is going anywhere now for some time.

A key point to re-emphasize from my article a few weeks ago on iPad evolution is this:

I wrote last week, that I have been living in a Windows world and using both a 15′ Surface Laptop and a Surface Pro X and the more I become comfortable with my new workflows on Windows the more I like the Surface Pro X tablet functions as a companion to the laptop. Being able to seamlessly move from one device to the next and keep my workflow intact is efficient. This is counter the experience I have using Mac and iPad together as they both have two very different workflows for most of my main tasks.

I want to emphasize this point of seamless workflows. This has been a positive of going from iPhone to iPad, but iPad’s more PRO workflows are quite different from macOS. By evolving iPadOS and adding trackpad support in apps, my guess is the workflows from Mac and iPad will not be that different any longer which is good in my opinion.

I hate the debate as to whether the iPad is a computer, or not since I think it should simply be clear it is a new type of computer. That being said, it is extremely interesting to me they dynamic that has been at play between the iPad and the Microsoft Surface. If you had told me when iPad and then shortly after Surface launched, that in 10 years iPad would look more like a Surface, I would have told you you were wrong until I was blue in the face. Yet here we are.

Slaying Sacred Cows
I’ve said, and still believe, Steve Jobs’s original vision was much more transformative to the computer paradigm than perhaps humans were ready for. I honestly don’t think where iPad has evolved is where Steve hoped, but I could totally be wrong here, that’s just my hunch. I think humans again are stuck in my behavioral debt theory, and we gravitate to old things that are comfortable, and old habits really do die hard.

There is nothing wrong with this, there is simply wisdom in understanding the universal nature of this truth. When something transformative enters the picture, it is not the established users who embrace it but the new users who grow upon it. For example, my daughters use iPads for school. One of them will be a Sr. next year, and I had been thinking if she was going to need a Mac/PC to go off to college. She much prefers iPad to Ma,c and now with iPad Pro and the Magic Keyboard, I am confident that will do just fine for her in college.

But, what I think matters here in the big picture is Apple’s willingness to slay sacred cows. I do have a strong hunch, not bringing mouse/trackpad to iPad was a sacred cow for many early years into the iPad launch. It is extremely mature of Apple to be willing to leave behind ideas that may have had genuinely good intentions, and evolve in a way that fits the user, not their (Apple’s bias). This is not the first time we have seen this either. I think the iPad Mini was a concession by Apple, and I think smartphones larger than 5 inches were a concession by Apple. But, their concessions met the market where its needs evolved, and those concessions kept them in dominant positions with device sales.

I think these new feature improvements to iPad will do the same. It will keep iPad as the best selling tablet/computer combination and even leader to stronger sales going forward. It will also help the Mac, as I alluded to in my piece a few weeks ago. Bringing mouse support to iPad OS will absolutely help iOS developers bring their apps to Mac, which will create a software boon for Mac, which we have not seen since the early days of Mac software development. Apps help drive platforms, and if we see a flood of new macOS apps, this strengthens the case for developers for both iPadOS and Mac at the same time and could very well put both platforms on a new trajectory.

Apple In The Time of Coronavirus

The rumors about an Apple event in March had been mounting since the start of 2020. Still, the string of cancellations of every live tech event and conference from February to July had people believing Apple would pivot to an online event to launch what was expected to be a low-cost iPhone, a new iPad Pro and a new MacBook Pro. Then, last week, the COVID19 crisis accelerated across several locations, including Apple’s backyard: Silicon Valley. A date for WWDC was announced and with it the news that the event will be a virtual one. I am sure even for the most avid fans, whether or not Apple was going to have a product launch was no longer top of mind and many might have thought this was not the best time to have a product launch.

To Launch or Not To Launch

I have no insights into the thought process that lead Apple to launch its products, but there were a few things that stood out to me about the process. Some might argue that this was not a time to launch any consumer products. The reality, however, is that the uncertainty of how long this situation will last makes it hard to delay products as doing so might impact other products coming to market later in the year. Also, although brick and mortar stores are closed in many markets, online stores are still open for business.

I thought the way Apple decided to launch was sympathetic to the mood we are all in. There was no live event, which could have been an option we have seen other brands adopt. Instead, there was a press release, a landing page for each product like we usually have and video ads and demos. The video showcasing the iPad Pro new Magic keyboard saw a much less exuberant Craig Federighi than we are used to seeing on stage. There was contained excitement for the product, but the demo was delivered in a very matter of fact way acknowledging the unique situation we are finding ourselves in.

There was one product that was expected to be part of this launch that we did not see and that is the rumored lower-priced iPhone. It could well be that Apple might be facing some supply issues, but I would not be surprised, although I doubt, we will ever know for sure if delaying the launch of that specific product has to do with the COVID19 crisis. A more affordable iPhone would have its greater appeal among potential buyers who have a more limited disposable income. I would argue the economic uncertainty tied to COVID19 is likely to impact this target market the most. That said, I believe the choice Apple made not to launch the new iPhone model at this time had more to do with not being out of touch with reality than a concern about weaker consumer confidence.

Three Thoughts on the New iPad Pro

And now onto the product that most interests me: the new iPad Pro. I will have more to say once I get my hands on one, but from the demos, there were a few general observations I wanted to make.

The Trackpad

I have never been one of those iPad users calling for trackpad support, I was just going to be content with a backlit keyboard, but I got both! What struck me about the demo that Federighi delivered was that the trackpad is more akin to the MacBook TouchBar than the trackpad on the Mac, which is why I believe we will see it go from the iPad Pro to the Mac. The idea is for the trackpad to keep the hands where you have them when typing but allowing you to interact with content on the screen as if you were touching it. Wouldn’t that be what you want to do with a Mac?

PC vs. iPad Pro

The “How to correctly use a computer” video has evolved from the “what’s a computer” video of a couple of years ago. The focus shifted from what the hardware should look and feel to how the hardware defines the way we work. It seems subtle, but as the iPad Pro gets closer to the Microsoft Surface Pro, at least conceptually, moving the conversation to how people work points exactly to differences such as the role of a trackpad as well as the app ecosystem.

Software

Over the years, the big argument people would make on whether the iPad Pro could replace a PC was centered around three things: better keyboard, mouse support, and software. Now that Apple has delivered on the hardware front, the software is what needs to be addressed.

In my view, this means that the race that used to be iPad vs. Surface Pro becomes iPadOS+MacOS vs. Windows 10x. With Panos Panay now leading the Windows effort, I would expect a new emphasis on ease of use and richness of the experience. I also expect a lot of learning coming from the effort that Microsoft is putting into Android and bringing Android and Windows closer together.

Even switching from hardware to software, it is interesting to see how these two companies are heading towards a very similar final goal but coming at it from the opposite direction. iPadOS users are calling for software that can handle more, while Windows users are asking for a much slender software. It sure will be interesting to see where we go from here.

Tech’s Time to Shine and Re-Build Trust With Society

I’m going to keep today’s note short and sweet. For one, we are now in a shelter in place in the Bay Area and that has caused a bit of chaos in many of our worlds. On top of that, a friend had an issue with his sheep who was giving birth today so I had to run over and help the situation.

Right now it feels as though there are chaos and turmoil. Humans are panicking as many of their worlds have been disrupted, turned upside down, and fear and panic are resulting. As I observe the totality of the situation, it strikes me that right now is the time for big-tech companies, and the technology industry as a whole to shine and rise to the occasion.

For some time now, tech companies have been getting a bad reputation and being viewed more like evil entities than friends of humanity. This is a golden opportunity for leaders in the tech industry to rally together and rebuild trust in society and around the world.

This starts with something like misinformation and presents a massive opportunity for Twitter, Facebook, and more to start managing how better they sort and present trusted information as this is a critical time for people to rely on information they can trust.

Interestingly, I have really appreciated how Apple News is handling curating important news related to COVID-19. In case you haven’t seen it, the first page of Apple News, at the top, has this highlight.

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As opposed to going to Twitter early each morning as I drink my coffee, I am going to this section of Apple News for all the latest information. This is not to say I don’t find valuable information related to the outbreak on Twitter, but that I’m not sure what I can trust on Twitter and right now I care more about having confidence in my information and maybe having less information than I do having too much information and wasting time figuring out if it is credible.

Facebook has felt like a total waste of space when it comes to anything related to the virus because people in my feed are sharing content that fits their narrative. Either this is the end of days or it’s no big deal it seems based on the variety of content I see. Facebook has been the most frustrating place to frequent during this crisis.

But, now is the time for all these companies to see this as an opportunity to showcase their best approach to these problems and play a helpful role in helping us get past it. This is, likely, the most impactful global event since World War II, and it represents an unprecedented need for technology to do the right thing for humanity. Those who fail may only increase the negative posture many people and governments have toward technology.

It has been encouraging to see tech companies offer many of their tools for free to institutions who need it. While that is a win-win business case, the reality is it creates a positive posture that will help these companies look better in the public eye.

I have also wondered if the companies who play this right, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc., who may have come into some government regulatory speculation may also come out of this with a changed tune. For example, I think a reasonable question would be if breaking apart a company due to regulatory issues would actually hurt the global situation in case of a catastrophe? Would a company be able to respond as quickly to a global crisis if the government was to burden them with restrictions? These are not questions faced before when big tech was bad, but if big-tech can help prove good, and in light of the situation we find ourselves in, these are interesting questions in the here and now!

I want to be optimistic in my outlook on current events and look at the positive scenarios that could play out. Ultimately, this is a massive test for everyone. For individuals, for businesses, for governments, and for leaders. I genuinely hope we have more who pass than fail this moment in time which will go down in history books.

The Value of Contingencies and Remote Collaboration

The stark realities that we’re all facing from the COVID-19 pandemic unfortunately won’t be going away any time soon. The simple truth is that life is just going to be different for a while. Let’s hope that the extraordinary efforts that companies and people are taking to minimize the spread of the virus prove to be effective sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, however, it’s clearly time to settle into new modes of working, with technology obviously playing a key role. Work at home numbers are going to shoot up tremendously, for example, and many people are about to get a crash course in things that work well—and things that don’t—in that environment. (By the way, if you’re looking for some advice and pointers on the subject based on years of experience, check out the latest Techpinions podcast: https://techpinions.com/podcast-working-from-home/59461)

In addition, many companies are going to have to start up whatever contingency and emergency plans they have in place. The speed at which events are occurring and situations are shifting is undoubtedly catching even the most well-prepared organizations off-guard to some degree. Once things start to settle down, however, the critical importance and value of technology-enabled contingency plans should start to become very obvious.

Unfortunately, there are likely several companies that didn’t have those types of plans in place. In addition, there may be an even larger number that had a basic plan in place but didn’t take it to the level that our current situation has created. (To be fair, it would have been hard for anybody to really predict the speed and depth of impact that COVID-19 has created.) The challenge for these organizations will be to quickly put together plans that can help them adapt in the best way possible to the new environment. I have no doubt that, in fact, that’s exactly what a lot of IT professionals are in the process of doing as we speak.

The good news is that we now have access to an amazing array of different technology-based options to help address at least some of the challenges organizations are going to be facing. Additionally, thanks to a series of encouraging announcements, a wide range of tech companies, carriers and others are pitching in to make their services free or to reduce data caps in order to ease the potential limitations of network bandwidth.

From high-quality videoconferencing solutions, to fast, reliable broadband networks, to mature cloud-based collaboration software tools, the tech industry has never had a wider range of tools to help ease the process of working at home (or remotely). In fact, once we get past all this, there’s little doubt that we’ll look back at these next few months as being a defining moment for remote collaboration. The extensive use of these tools is also going to be an incredibly valuable real-time experiment that will clearly expose the real advantages (and challenges) of existing tools. Hopefully, these next few weeks will also quickly lead to tweaks and adjustments that make them easier and more reliable. If these tools do perform well, they could end up becoming significantly more important in the average worker’s arsenal even beyond this crisis. Of course, if they don’t work well for many, expect to see some serious pushback against them.

In addition to these basic remote work enablement capabilities, there are a number of more nuanced factors that are going to come into play, particularly as time goes on. Even if companies have the basic tools they need to enable collaboration, for example, what level of control or management do they have over the devices or the networks being used to do that work? Those are details that can get overlooked in basic contingency plans but need to be a factor for longer-term emergency plans that, hopefully, every company is now creating, if they haven’t already.

If we learn nothing else from this crisis, it should be abundantly clear to all that the need for creating plans that allow business continuity in even the most challenging of situations is absolutely essential. There should be little doubt that aggressively leveraging the new types of remote connectivity and collaboration tools now available needs to be a critical part of those plans.

Podcast: Working from Home

This week’s Techpinions podcast, which features Ben Bajarin and Bob O’Donnell, takes a different approach than normal and features an in-depth conversation on how to make the best of working from home, providing advice and best practices gained from many years of personal experience on everything from developing habits, to optimizing your connectivity, to leveraging the right kind of tech equipment and more.