PC Computing Market Shares

Lastly, I’d like to take a look at the PC category. This is the one area where Microsoft is dominant. However, there is a clear shift happening in the PC segment many fail to realize. Let’s start with the platform share of traditional PC form factors.

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I estimate the total installed base of the desktop and notebook form factor to be 1.52b devices. While PCs were significantly impacted by the monumentally fast rise of tablet adoption, we are starting to see PC sales return to balance as many enterprises begin refreshing old terminals, point-of-sale terminals, workstations, and laptops. 2014 will certainly be a better year for PCs than the past few years. Yet there are still many questions facing the category.

  1. Windows: Microsoft still has a lot of work ahead for them. Luckily they have a partner in Intel who is equally hungry to right the PC ship. Annual shipments of PCs are in the low 300m range and I don’t expect to see a massive jump any time soon, excluding tablets of course. We are seeing a refresh cycle bump, which I alluded to, but I’m not sure the low 300m range of PC sales is the bottom for traditional form factors like desktops and tablets. After the next few years of refresh are complete it, is likely to be a famine again for PC vendors.This is what Microsoft is hoping to address by evolving Windows to be both a touch based computing system and a mouse and keyboard based computing system. If they are successful in this, their single platform can cover the range of use cases from desk to mobile. This attempt would be deemed a failure in my eyes if we were to just use Windows 8 and the existing 2-in-1 and convertible PCs. However, Microsoft never gets things right the first time so we must wait for Windows 9 or even Windows 10 to see if they have the right recipe to keep Windows dominant in the PC category.
  2. OS X and iOS: While Apple with OS X is around the 4-5m Mac sales per quarter, I remain bullish that Apple has an opportunity to gain share with OS X in the overall PC category. More aggressive price points with products like the MacBook Air could be a catalyst. Should Apple move from Intel for a more mainstream priced notebook, this could also be a catalyst for lower priced Macs. Apple is sticking to their philosophy of the right OS for the right form factor. Counter to Microsoft but the right strategy I believe. Apple may be also looking to blur the lines even more between iOS and OS X. Tim Bajarin writes here about the possibility of an Apple-like 2-in-1 form factor. Looking at what Apple could do to start to move the iPad up into broader computing capabilities is interesting thinking. Should they do this, it would still run iOS in my opinion, since its primary uses would be more mobile, but the addition of an Apple designed keyboard, and perhaps a larger screen, could evolve iOS even further to become more capable as a general purpose personal computer.
  3. Chrome OS: Chromebooks, while a small percentage of the installed base and annual sales comparatively, are devices to keep an eye on. They are continuing to rise in sales in the education channel and are challenging tablets in education. It is the commercial sector where Chromebooks are doing well today, but should they crack the consumer nut we could see these devices rise rapidly as a percentage of quarterly sales and overall installed base.

Now for the twist. The conversation, perhaps debate is more accurate, around tablets and PCs is relevant. Referring to my prior post on tablets, there are tablets that are being used for specific things like games, kids, TVs, etc. I would not consider those tablets more general purpose computing devices. The iPad, a few of Samsung’s tablets, and now even some Windows slate tablets fit this build. However, I believe at least the larger iPad should be counted among PC sales. For the sake of the point, I’ve created a chart looking at PC sales by vendor each quarter and have included Apple. For Apple, I added the sales of Macs and iPads.

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From this chart, you will notice by including the total of Macs and iPads, Apple becomes the leading vendor in PC shipments. Now to fully see this landscape, we would also need to include Samsung’s PC sales plus their tablet sales but I don’t have Samsung PC sales. Vendors who sell Android tablets should also be included but those are very minimal and wouldn’t up their numbers much. But the point with regard to Apple is the role the iPad has actually played for them when it comes to the PC arena. The iPad no doubt either gave many consumers the ability to hold off refreshing their PC, or not refreshing their PC entirely. I view the iPad as a part of Apple’s play for the the PC market. Either way, the tablet, and in this case the iPad, is a product that steals time from the PC. ((Yes the smartphone does as well and ultimately we will have to debate the degree the smartphone steals time from the tablet)) That is why I’ve included their iPad sales in this chart. Apple was once almost entirely irrelevant in computers, and the iPad has helped them in a variety of ways in relation to the PC category.

The line blurring between traditional PC form factors and tablets is the narrative to watch in this market going forward.

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Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

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