Pondering Apple’s Big Day

on September 9, 2013

As with all Apple events I have attended, which is every one going back to the launch of the iPod, there are many intriguing questions leading up to the event. Many have been speculating and analyzing every angle possible about what may or may not be announced tomorrow. I’d prefer to leave the speculating to others and focus my efforts on analyzing the impact at large of what does get announced once we have the whole story. That being said there is something in particular that I find interesting about tomorrow’s announcements. [pullquote]The interest doesn’t seem to be about something ground breaking but something ground gaining[/pullquote]

Apple’s Next Big Thing

What strikes me as fascinating is that everyone is making noise not about speculation of some new “innovation” but rather a less expensive and more affordable iPhone. The interest doesn’t seem to be about something ground breaking but something ground gaining. Apple’s next big thing is actually about Apple’s next big market.

I’ve been explaining to many in both our industry presentations and also in my writing that we can not get lost with where we are in the adoption cycle for products like smart phones and tablets. Moves companies make should be focused on driving adoption and addressing market needs. More often than not, the strategy behind this isn’t ground breaking innovation but practical evolution in order to address market needs. There is in fact, the danger of over innovating and thus over-serving the market with where we are at currently in the cycle.

That is not to say we won’t see some innovative things designed to move the market forward. I have speculated that I believe Apple to move the market forward and take a leadership position with regards to security. But whatever is released that is innovative, I doubt will over-serve the market needs. Apple has a tendency to be very calculated in the timing of the market development and readiness to adopt the innovations they bring to market.

Perhaps there will be a few surprises, but perhaps there will not. Whatever is announced should be analyzed within the scope of this question: does this move Apple’s smartphone business forward to address the needs of the global smartphone consumer market. The big deal about tomorrow will be about the ways Apple is addressing the big market.

So What About Big Phones?

I thought Samsung’s proclamation that they have sold 38 million Notes (I and II) in total worldwide was interesting timing. No leaks or real hard speculation has led anyone to think Apple will release a larger screen iPhone at tomorrow’s event. So it seems as though Samsung wants to get some press that hopefully sticks in people’s heads that Samsung has a large screen phone and is selling millions of them and Apple does not. Especially, in light of the fact that the overwhelming majority of those 38 million Note sales have been outside of the US. Large phones, some call them phablets, do well outside of the US but over the next 2-3 years it is doubtful that they ever get about 10% of the overall market in annual sales. What does have the largest part of the market are lower cost phones. Let’s keep that in mind.

So many interesting questions that I will enjoy analyzing post event. The Daily Tech.pinion will be delayed in so that we can focus on analyzing all the news from the day. There will also be a ton of extra content and analysis on Apple this week for Tech.pinions Insiders our subscription service for those who desire more weekly content and analysis from our team. I encourage you to check it out if you haven’t already. And of course follow the team on Twitter for live remarks of the event.

Ben Bajarin @benbajarin
Tim Bajarin @Bajarin
Steve Wildstrom @swildstrom