Photo of Forbidden City (© lujing - Fotolia.com)

Semi-random Thoughts on China

I’m writing this as I am flying home from 10 days in China. Not the tech temples of Shenzhen but a concert tour of five of China’s largets cities with the Children’s Chorus of Washington. This opens you eyes to an amazing country in ways that visits to factories and electronics markets do not.

The single most striking thing about China is that the country has reached a point where the explosive growth of large sities simply must slow down because they are hitting two limits: pollution and traffic. Pollution has reached a point where, particularly in places like Beijing and Xi’an, it is a serious public health issue. And choking, immovable traffic is destroying any efficiency of urban life.

It’s not that China fails to recognize these problems. But the situation is very different from more developed countries, especially the U.S. We suffer emissions and traffic problems, too, but our political system seems unwilling or unable to address them. Washington,D.C., for example, is about to get rapid transit most of the way to Dulles Airport 25 years after the need became obvious.

China, by contrast, is building infrastructure as fast as it can. Every city seems to be torn up by cut-and-cover subway construction. The utility industry is moving to retire coal-firerd power plants. But the efforts simply cannot keep up with the growth, so the situation grows worse despite heroic efforts to improve it. Our tour guide’s answer to all questions about how long it would take to reach our next destination seemed to be “if no traffic jam needs one hour.” But there was always a traffic jam, making it nearly impossible to maintain a schedule.

Matters are not helped by the Chinese penchant for American-style big cars. Although SUVs are rare, the streets are choked with Honda Accords, Toyota Camrys, 5-series BMWs, and Audi A6s. Obviously, these are not the vehicles of average Chinese workers, but these luxury cars are seen with a density typical of the plusher areas of Washington or Manhattan. Though there is a plague of scooters and trishaws darting in and out of traffic, bicycles have largely disappeared from the main streets. Nine million bicycles in Beijing is a nice song, but it no longer reflects reality.

Political freedom is a tricky question. Certainly, China is not a free country. Political leadership is picked by the Communist Party, which except for the doctrine of democratic centralism that concentrates all power inthe hands of the Party, bears no allegiance to any communist princles that Marx, Lenin, Khrushchev or even Toglitatti would recognize. There are no meaningful elections and no real citizen input into government. The free flow of information is blocked and treatment of dissidents can be, and often is, harsh.

On the other hand, I have been in real police states, the Soviet Union for one, and China doesn’t come close. The pervasive fear is lacking and I found ordinary Chinese remarkably willing to talk about their political and social aspirations. There are video cameras everywhare, but these days that hardly distinguishes China from the US or UK.

The real test for China will come with the invetiable slowdown in growth. The Chinese people has made a faustian bargain since the end of their Cultural Revolution. They have accepted a level of Party control and repression in exchange for a government that delivers boundless growth that has created a vast urban middle class and raised aspirations throughout the countryside. But the pace is unsustainable, and as it slows, will the people stick with the bargain. There are no revolutions more dangerous than revolutions of rising expectations.

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Steve Wildstrom

Steve Wildstrom is veteran technology reporter, writer, and analyst based in the Washington, D.C. area. He created and wrote BusinessWeek’s Technology & You column for 15 years. Since leaving BusinessWeek in the fall of 2009, he has written his own blog, Wildstrom on Tech and has contributed to corporate blogs, including those of Cisco and AMD and also consults for major technology companies.

2 thoughts on “Semi-random Thoughts on China”

  1. I remember my Politics 101 class in University. The professor asked the class what causes revolutions. We said things like poverty, treating people cruelly… all wrong. He said revolutions happen when a ruling class let the ‘expectations’ genie out of the bag and then does not deliver. Steve, I think you have hit the nail on the head; China will experience a recession at some point in the future (with rising unemployment etc) and how the masses (and government) respond will be very interesting.

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