In a Tech.pinions piece I wrote a few weeks back, I stated that in our talks with IT directors they have been sharing with us their interested in the hybrids or convertibles that are just starting to get into the marketplace. Products like Lenovo’s Yoga or HP’s Elitebook Convertible are attractive to them for various reasons, but the main one is that instead of having to support a separate tablet and laptop, these converged products give them both in a single package.
An IT capable tablet might cost $600 or $700 and an IT grade laptop might cost upwards of $900- $1300 depending on configurations. These convertibles or hybrids are priced around $900-$1300, which is cheaper than buying a separate laptop and tablet combined. Thus, cost of support and cost of ownership is reduced and with IT budgets being stretched these days, lower priced, yet highly functional devices like these hybrids or convertibles makes a lot of sense to them.
We are also seeing some real interest in hybrids and convertibles with SMB and some consumers as well. The compactness of having a 2-in-1 device seems to be of real interest to them as well. At a personal level, I have used a Bluetooth keyboard with an iPad for over a year and in many cases, this has replaced my laptop. However, I still need my laptop to handle what we call heavy lifting tasks like managing my media, doing large spreadsheets or complex documents.
Looking to the Future
In my 2013 predictions column last week, I suggested that hybrids and convertibles could be a sleeper product next year and could catch on with business users in a big way. However, in this same column I made a bolder prediction that Apple would create something I called the AirPad or iPadAir that possibly would be ultrathin like the current MacBook Air and be more like an actual laptop but the screen would detach and become an iPad. Since I made this prediction I have had a lot of calls and emails from people who today have iPads, but tell me they would love to have an iPad/laptop combo device and they would be first in line to buy it.
There is one big problem with my prediction of an Apple hybrid though. Apple CEO Tim Cook has gone on record saying that Apple does not believe this type of device makes sense. They appear heavily opposed to this idea and seem to stand strong around the idea that a laptop is a laptop and a tablet is a tablet. At the moment, you can’t argue with their logic as they are selling a record numbers of MacBooks and iPads, and they may be right. Hybrids and convertibles from the PC crowd have only been out for a short time. Microsoft’s Surface product being the poster child for hybrids also clouds this issue since it acceptance in the market has been lukewarm at best.
Given the type of work we do at Creative Strategies, we get to see a lot of products behind the scenes before they ever hit the market. Over the last three months, we have seen about a dozen hybrid’s or convertibles that will hit the market in Q1 or Q2 of 2013 and some of them are stunning in their design and functionality. On some of them, the screens stay attached and either slide down over the keyboard to become a tablet, or they twist and fold down to also become a tablet in its own right. In our work, we define these types of products as convertibles.
We have also seen a lot of what we call hybrids, in which the screen completely detaches from the keyboard and becomes a much lighter stand-alone tablet. In both cases, some of these are ultra-thin and extremely well designed and I can’t help but believe that when these products hit the market interest by business users and consumers will be piqued. Hybrids dual functionality as a full laptop as well as a real tablet, along with lower pricing than if you bought the tablet and laptop separately, will resonate with many people.
I have also been hearing that the PC side of the house is very bullish on these two-in-one designs and since most of them fall under Intel’s ultrabook designation, they will be heavily promoted next year as part of an increased campaign to get people to buy Ultrabooks. Because of the innovative designs in hybrids and convertibles, which are really eye catching with most priced under $1000, this duality of design and functionality should get a lot of attention next year.
What if the Market for Hybrids Takes Off?
If our prognostication that hybrids and convertibles are correct, and they really take off, Apple will have to look harder at possibly creating a similar type of product for their customers. Today they just let them go out and buy a third party keyboard and force their users to piece together their own hybrid solutions. We have talked to a lot of people who have done this and just love the fact that in a very small package the iPad becomes a powerful productivity tool as well as one that they can use for consumption of media, pictures, etc.
There is strong precedent as well that a product Apple said they would never do they eventually bring to market anyway. Steve Jobs said Apple would not get into phones. And he also said he believed 7” tablets were worthless. However, market dynamics have a way of changing Apple’s position on products they dismiss as not being viable for them to do.
That is why I believe that if hybrids and convertibles really strike a chord with consumers, Apple will have to respond to this possible threat to them, especially in business markets where these types of products are garnering a lot of interest now. Imagine a MacBook Air like design with an iPad tablet that detaches. Given Jony Ives brilliant design acumen, I could imagine an Apple hybrid that would not only be competitive with the PC crowd, but one that would re-define the market for these types of products in the future.
We are in the very early stages of bringing hybrids and convertibles to business users and consumers, so it is too early in the cycle to predict with any certainty the level of adoption of hybrids. But our early research in this area continues to point to the fact that these types of products could be attractive to a large amount of users, and if they do take off and become a threat to Apple, it would not surprise me if Apple responds in kind and creates a product that could turn this market upside down.