Surprised by Apple

on April 29, 2021

The only thing that keeps surprising me about Apple is that people keep being surprised by their ability to keep delivering great quarterly revenues. But, of course, I know the point I’m making is more of an industry and investor one since most of Apple’s customers pay no attention to their earnings.

I have participated in countless investor debates on the sustainability of Apple’s business. While most investors have come around to the resiliency of Apple’s business and adjusted their models accordingly, there is still a general sustainable growth concern.

I find most fascinating, and perhaps the biggest reason I’m confident in Apple’s sustained growth is how the growth contributions can come from unexpected areas. One quarter maybe iPhone, one quarter it may be Mac and iPad, one quarter it may be services, one quarter it may be wearables, etc. While multiple of these lines of business can contribute to varying degrees, what has to be appreciated is all the revenue levers Apple has, which continually contribute to top-line growth.

While I appreciate the debate around how much more the iPhone can grow, being stuck on that point misses the fact that the rest of the Apple product and service ecosystem is underpenetrated compared to the iPhone. Meaning that not every iPhone owner has a Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, or HomePod. Not every iPhone owner subscribes to Apple’s digital services. In that light, the growth story looks a lot more interesting and sustainable.

While the iPhone will continue to see a cadence of upgrades, generally over a four-year time frame, and be stable on an annual basis of shipments, Apple keeps sharing their active iPhone installed base keeps growing. This means they are continually adding new customers, even if relatively slowly compared to other products.

To give out some numbers for context, the iPhone global installed base is ~1 billion. Mac is ~110m. iPad is ~250m. Apple Watch is ~100m, and Airpods likely in that range as well. So compared to the iPhone installed base, every other hardware category from Apple is owned by less than 30% of their global customer base.

I’ve seen several global surveys on iPhone customers, which indicate that no single service has more than 30% penetration into the global iPhone customer base. iCloud appears to be the most subscribed to service at around 30% of iPhone customers subscribing to the storage service.

Now to the important takeaway in the Apple growth narrative. ~70% of Apple customers don’t own an additional piece of Apple hardware or subscribe to Apple’s digital services. While I do not expect 100% of all iPhone owners to own multiple pieces of Apple hardware or subscribe to all of Apple’s services, there is still a great deal of growth headroom for every offering from Apple beyond iPhone.

Once Apple acquires customers, they generally do not leave. Apple has loyalty, engagement, and brand equity on its side, and all those things factor into the continued reliance and strength in its business. Apple has a history of putting out great products, and as long as they continue to put out great products, there is no reason to be surprised by their performance in the marketplace.