Do Consumers Want Tablets or iPads?

John Paczkowski, over at the All Things D blog, wrote an interesting article titled “Consumers Don’t Want Tablets, They Want iPads.” I encourage you to read it, it was a good read with some good statistics from Bernstein Research on tablet brand awareness and form factor preference. In terms of where the market is today i’d have to agree that mainstream consumers are highly in favor of the iPad over other tablets. The question is will this always be the case or will the market even out, and if so when?

Paczkowski’s theory, as stated in the opening, is that the tablet market is currently similar to the original MP3 market. All though Apple didn’t invent the MP3 market they re-invented it and controlled much of its growth. Consumers preferred the iPod to all other MP3 players, mainly due to Apple’s ecosystem. Apple is in the driver’s seat with tablets currently because again, all though they didn’t invent it, they re-invented it. The Apple ecosystem is uniquely positioned to continue to keep them dominant in the tablet category.

There is however a fundamental difference between the iPad and the MP3 player. The MP3 player was for the most part of its maturity cycle a feature centric device. Meaning it generally did only one thing well, play music. The iPad and tablets at large are computers, which are general purpose not specific function devices, meaning they do many things well.

This difference creates the market opportunity for fragmentation once it matures. I liken what will happen in this market to the current automobile market. There are many choices that cater to a wide variety of consumer choices. This is what happens when a market reaches maturity.

The tablet market is a maturing market, not a mature one. Therefore in the beginning there will be fewer market leaders and less choices until the market matures. Consumers will choose the market leader to get their feet wet with the new product and use it to help them decide their own preferences and desires.

The real trick will be for Apple and others to create “sticky” experiences with their ecosystem. This will keep consumers vested and committed to a specific hardware, software and services solution. Vendors who don’t do this well will likely face the chance of consumers switching or at least considering to switch with each buying cycle. If a vendor creates enough depth with their offering, getting consumers committed to their ecosystem, then there will be less of a chance they will switch with each buying cycle.

To say that people (mainstream consumers, not early adopters as there is a difference) want iPads not tablets is correct for the time being. We could have easily said the same thing 3 or 4 years ago that consumers want an iPhone not a smart phone. However the market has developed and is quickly maturing making fragmentation a given.

I’ll bet 3 years from now the tablet market will look different, with more choices and more mature products from iPad competitors. The question will remain whether consumers will buy.

Why Apple’s Loss of Retail Chief to JC Penney is Apple’s Gain

I have written in various columns over the last few months, that once Apple moved the center of our digital life from the Mac and to the cloud, they could be freed up to offer many more devices that are Apple branded and gain greater features from their cloud offering.

This idea became crystal clear when Steve Jobs demoted the Mac to being just one of their devices that connect to the cloud. What Jobs and Company know very well is that we are moving to a world in which users will have a whole lot of screens in their digital lifestyle and will not be limited to just the PC like devices we use today to access the cloud. Over time, we will have screens in our cars, refrigerators, household fixtures, etc and all will have some type of connection to the cloud. Actually we are in what I call the first phase of “screenplays” in which the PC, smart phone and tablets are the dominant screens for this type of cloud based connectivity. Continue reading Why Apple’s Loss of Retail Chief to JC Penney is Apple’s Gain