There is a saying that the tech industry is recession-proof. Every industry will be hit in some ways when there is a crisis, but history has shown us that tech is hit the least and rebounds the fastest. This is a primary reason tech stocks have done well throughout the pandemic. Investors foresaw that tech spending would remain steady, but the amount of growth the tech industry has seen was something no one could predict.
Last week we hosted on the podcast our friend Stephen Baker, VP of NPD, whose focus is on US retail sales of consumer technology products. During the podcast, he mentioned the unprecedented YoY revenue growth of 17%. Something that has not happened since at least the early 2000s he mentioned during the podcast.
As we chatted about the different category growth and the specific areas of consumer electronics that were up the most, things like TVs, PCs, smartphones, gaming PCs and consoles, and accessories, the overarching theme of how essential technology is was apparent. If the notion that tech is so deeply ingrained into the fabric of our lives, that most of it is no longer just wanted but is needed, was not clear before it is now.
But there is a broader observation that I think needs to be made about this pandemic caused boom the entire technology just observed.
During the podcast, Steve Baker was mentioning his conversations with the broader tech ecosystem and warning them not to use 2020 as a comparable or bar for their sales people. 17% YoY revenue growth in a mature market like consumer electronics is certainly a once in a pandemic kind of situation. That being said, I do think we can look for the overall consumer electronics market to be stronger than it was pre-pandemic due to the market expansion the pandemic caused.
What stands out to me is the total addressable market for almost every major consumer technology category was increased because of the pandemic. What would have been a small single percent trickle of growth YoY leading to slow market expansion was rushed forward in one year. We went from an average of 1-2 PC/Macs per household to every person in the house has some kind of larger-screen personal computing device. TVs saw their average age decrease, which meant upgrades as well as new purchases for other areas of the house where TVs did not exist before. Gaming PCs and consoles, really gaming PCs saw the most growth of the TV, exploded as online multiplayer video games became a common way for people to spend time together during the pandemic. People bought monitors, printers, and a host of accessories they may have never been in the market for if it weren’t for the global pandemic. All of this and more led to a massive expansion of the market for consumer tech products.
Now, looking forward, while we will not be stuck working and learning from home forever, there is a reality that a lot of the products purchased in the tech expansion will still be used in some capacity for working and learning at home and will be upgraded in the future. PCs are a simple example of this, where the market likely added tens of millions of new notebook/desktop owners, and it is likely those will be upgraded in the future. If it stands to reason that these tech products purchased in the market expansion don’t collect dust when the world returns to some state of normal, then we can expect a new potential ceiling for annual tech spending and category revenue going forward.
This is indeed the case with more forecasted models I’ve seen in all the major categories, other than smartphones. I say other than smartphones because that is the only category that truly has a 1:1 device to consumer adoption of now more than 4.5 billion people on the planet. Few tech products will ever reach that scale, but in most developed markets, the pandemic has caused more individuals to purchase and adopt more tech for themselves personally than ever before. The belief is that the relationship with those products will remain, and while the exact timing of those refresh rates will remain a key debate, it is unlikely they are not refreshed at some point in the future.
The COVID pandemic, in every category in enterprise and consumer, rushed forward three to five years, maybe more, of anticipated market expansion of key tech areas into one year. This is why the supply chain is overrun, and this is why products are hard to find, as no one is prepared for this kind of explosion. The rushing forward of years of adoption into one year has created the market challenges we see in supply/demand imbalance, but it has also created a significant market opportunity for competition in areas that did not have much competition before.
While tech is essential, and there is no doubting that anymore, the tech market has almost instantly become magnitudes more interesting than it was before, and a new bedrock of competition that is great for consumers and enterprises alike is going to be as alive as ever in the coming years.
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