This week Tim Bajarin, Jan Dawson, and Ben Bajarin discuss the recent news around Windows 10 and what it means for Microsoft’s future. They also discuss some overall PC trends and how they may impact Microsoft’s strategy with Windows as well.
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I have been very critical of 2-in-1s like the Surface. Attempting to do both operations equally well, most often leads to doing both equally poorly.
I think the best “2-in-1s” are more like 1+1 (like a sports coupe is a 2+2), where the Primary characteristics are uncompromised (the drivers seat) but the secondary are a possibly useful afterthought (like tiny sports coupe back seats).
So I think a Notebook + touchscreen has no real negatives for the primary function of being a notebook. Bonus if it has a few other screen positions to make touch more useful. Lenovo Yoga is a prime example.
I also like the idea of reducing the gadget count. I have said it before. I am starting to reach “peak charging” I have too many devices that need to be plugged in and charged.
So I could definitely see a Big Phone + something like a Yoga covering almost anything I need/want to do with portable computing/connectivity.
Beyond that Win10 looks like it will be less awful than Win8, but I hardly see it as start of any major swing in direction. I think they will need strong curation to enforce that applications capable of running on multiple HW types are actually optimized for them. But I really can’t see that happening, so results will likely be mediocre on many HW types.
What I love about 2-in-1’s, or more specifically the Surface Pro 3, is the type of cool apps that that device / platform enable. This is a great example;
http://blog.surface.com/2014/10/new-adobe-creative-cloud/
There was nothing 2-in-1 about that ad. The surface never had it’s keyboard attached at any point. It was all tablet.
Microsoft’s biggest problem is they don’t understand their customer base. Oblivious to consumer needs the early preview of Windows 10 feels like a proverbial, “Honey, do these pants go with this shirt?!!”
Their focus on enterprise is, by my estimation, is a clear sign that they’ve run out of ideas leaving them to turn to the once lucrative and dependable large enterprise customer who buy laptops by the truckload and require constant technical support to keep the lights on at Microsoft call centers.
As you said in the podcast, developers won’t care about a singular kernel to write once, publish all model if the customers aren’t there to support said apps.
I also agree that the desktop is the last place you expect or want to see innovation. Other than designers, movie editors and other professions most of us are trying to escape our desks. We want to and need to work in a mobile environment and with so many applications going the way of the cloud as a SaaS model all we really need to get work done is a competent web browser or a 5MB app designed by the software manufacturer (which is essentially an application specific browser; e.g. the Netflix or CNN app are nothing more than a custom-made web browsers accessing cloud-based content).
I’ve downloaded and played with the Windows 10 technical preview and so far I’d call it one of the most boring and unattractive versions of Windows. For all the controversy that Win8 caused it was at least new and different. But Win8s’ downfall, by many, was the schizophrenic nature of the Metro interface and the Desktop.
Remember Jar-Jar Binks? He was universally regarded as one of the worst things about the prequels (well, there’s about 100,000 reasons why every prequel was complete and utter garbage but Jar-Jar is arguably in the top 10). But for whatever reason Lucas didn’t listen and we continued to see this character show up in the following two films.
Windows 10 is like that. One of the biggest detractors of Win8 was the Metro interface and the schizophrenic nature and design aesthetics between the two. Like Lucas Microsoft doesn’t care what we think about Metro and it’s here to stay. While you can avoid the Start Menu you’re still, sort of, forced to endure the interface in the Start Menu which is now crawling with shifting, updating tiles in a place that’s more launching pad than notification menu.
While you can argue what Apple or Google are doing wrong you can never say they don’t have a plan for the future. That they don’t have projects or avenues they can take to be more successful. But I can’t say the same for Microsoft. Their backtracking from Win8 to Win10 (essentially Win7 with some Metro influences) shows they lack the ability to create compelling experiences that drive people to adapt to their way of working.
No doubt we’ll still be talking about MS 10 years from now but in what capacity is the bigger question.
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