The Apple Watch Augean Stables

I’ve never seen so many ridiculously definitive opinions of an unreleased product as I have with Apple Watch. ~ Jim Dalrymple on Twitter

There are so many wrong things being said about the Apple Watch it would take years — even for a Mythical beast like the Macalope — to respond to them all.

Fascinating how “I don’t know what Apple is doing” comes out of people’s mouths as “Apple doesn’t know what it is doing.” ~ Ben Thompson (@monkbent)

Rather than attempt the Herculean task (think Augean Stables) of cleaning up the mess left behind by each and every one of these misguided missives, I thought it would be better to examine the flawed thinking that causes so many of us to get it so very wrong when when attempting to evaluate the validity of a new tech category.

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No Need

The primary criticism directed towards the Apple Watch is there is no need for it to exist. Some typical examples of this kind of thinking:

“The problem with the Apple Watch is that Apple didn’t explain what problem it solved.” ~ Jay Yarow

“It’s still not obvious that (the Apple Watch) is a need-to-have and not a nice-to-have…” ~ John Jackson of IDC

“Apple released the much-anticipated — and much-hyped — Apple Watch last week…. Unfortunately for Cook, he never gave us a reason to want or need the gee-whiz gadgetry.” ~ Jonathon M. Trugman

“What we’ve seen is that it’s not obvious why people would want a smartwatch.” ~ Gownder

“Apple’s newest creation replicates many of the functions that the smartphone already makes so seamless…. People are unlikely to want to shell out a sum between $350 (for the most basic model) and $17,000 (for the fanciest version) for something with so few extra functions.” ~ The Economist (via Daring Fireball)

“The question is, are there enough people willing to make this additional purchase for the ability to do things that, frankly, they can already do on their phone?” ~ Bob O’Donnell of TECHnalysis Research.

“Since I have a computer on my desk and in my family room and in my pocket, why do I need one on my wrist? Why can’t I just take that wrist, send it into my pocket and use the iPhone contained therein?” ~ John Crudele

No Need Redux

Gee. Why does this all sound so very familiar? Oh yeah. It’s because we heard the exact same “no need” argument five years ago when the iPad ((Companies that made less revenue in 2014 than the iPad: McDonalds, American Airlines, Nike, Capital One, Xerox, Time Warner Cable, Kraft Foods, eBay, Starbucks, Marriott)) made its debut. Some examples:

“I cannot see a need for the thing.” ~ John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 22 October 2010

“The iPad is useless. Beautiful, but useless.” ~ Josh Belzman, MSNBC.com, 20 May 2010

“It’s still unclear exactly what the iPad will do best.” ~ Rob Enderle, Enderle Group (also a Dell consultant), 1 March 2010

“Any tablet computer, including Apple’s eagerly anticipated iPad, will face serious problems in generating big sales. Tablets look cool, but the reality is they don’t do anything new.” ~ Michael Comeau, Minyanville, 5 March 2010

“I don’t get it.” It costs $500 for the basic model, when you could get a laptop with a lot more functionality for about the same price.” ~ Alex Cook, Seeking Alpha, 3 April 2010

“What an utter disappointment and abysmal failure of an Apple product. How can Steve Jobs stand up on that stage and hype this product up and not see everything this thing is not and everything this thing is lacking?” ~ Orange County Web Design Blog, 27 January 2010

Asking The Wrong Question

There is a reason why critics of the iPad in 2010 and critics of the Apple Watch in 2015 saw and see no need for a new category of device. The critics were and are asking the same wrong question and, unsurprisingly, getting the same wrong answer.

Critics of both the iPad and the Apple Watch frame the question this way:

“What does the Apple iPad do that the notebook/netbook computer cannot?”

“What does the Apple Watch do the iPhone cannot?”

Their inevitable answer is “not very much.”

However, that is the wrong way to approach the problem. A comparison between two products focuses the mind on features but consumers buy benefits, not features. When critics say, “I don’t see a need for a new product,” what they’re really saying is, “I haven’t considered what the product is being asked to do.”

There can be no right answer to the question of whether an iPhone or an Apple Watch is better until one knows what task the devices are being asked to accomplish. The question we should be asking is:

What job is the Apple Watch being hired to do?

What Job Is The Apple Watch Being Hired To Do?

Jobs are unstated needs. If users ask for them then they are not jobs that need doing. ~ Horace Dediu (@asymco)

In my opinion ((This is my preliminary list of the things I think the Apple Watch is being asked to do. It’s a little fuzzy and I’m certain to have gotten it wrong in some particulars. As the Apple Watch is used by more and more people, the job it is being asked to do will come more and more into focus)), the three jobs the Apple Watch is being hired to do are:

1) COMMUNICATOR: To make important incoming communications less intrusive and to make it faster and easier to send discreet and intimate outgoing communications

2) PLATFORM: To run software applications uniquely valuable when located on the wrist

3) INTERNET OF THINGS: To act as an intuitive or automatic trigger for the Internet of Things

I’ll throw in a bonus fourth job: The Apple Watch should be ever present on one’s person. It may seem to you and me the iPhone already serves this purpose, but many users put their iPhones in difficult to access pockets or purses or leave them behind when they’re at home. For those users, the watch — unlike the phone — is always on and always with you.

When we shift our focus from comparing devices to determining what those devices are being hired to do, our perspective is dramatically altered and the “No Need” argument simply falls away.

[pullquote]The iPhone can not do those things the Apple Watch is being asked to do.[/pullquote]

When we compare the iPhone to the Apple Watch, the Apple Watch appears to duplicate a subset of the iPhone’s features. However, when we compare the jobs each is being asked to do, it becomes clear there is very little overlap at all. The iPhone simply can not do, or can not do well, those things the Apple Watch is being asked to do.

Will The Apple Watch Do The Job?

Successful new categories are hard to predict precisely because they look like utter nonsense right up until the moment when they become massive successes.

One disrupts through finding problems that look irrelevant, or finding solutions that look irrelevant. ~ Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) 9/24/14

Of course the problem is not everything that looks like utter nonsense will become successful. So how do we distinguish between the two?

It starts with asking the right questions and ends with waiting until one has experienced the benefits of the product before pronouncing judgment.

With smartwatches, even more than phones, even more than tablets, even more than PCs, any verdict requires actual use in the real world. ~ Harry McCracken (@harrymccracken)

Conclusion

Things to know when making conservative predictions about a new Apple product:

1. You will be wrong.
2. It will be referenced forever.

Aaron Levie on Twitter

I think Apple has been asking the right questions.

(Jony Ive) craved products that didn’t force adjustments of behavior, that gave what Powell Jobs called a “feeling of gratitude that someone else actually thought this through in a way that makes your life easier.

Only experience with the product will tell us whether they’ve come up with the right answers.

If it can’t do any useful job then it won’t get hired. Conversely, if it nails an unmet job, it will be blindingly successful. ~ Horace Dediu (@asymco)

Published by

John Kirk

John R. Kirk is a recovering attorney. He has also worked as a financial advisor and a business coach. His love affair with computing started with his purchase of the original Mac in 1985. His primary interest is the field of personal computing (which includes phones, tablets, notebooks and desktops) and his primary focus is on long-term business strategies: What makes a company unique; How do those unique qualities aid or inhibit the success of the company; and why don’t (or can’t) other companies adopt the successful attributes of their competitors?

15 thoughts on “The Apple Watch Augean Stables”

  1. If I were a betting man, it’s impossible for the Apple Watch to not succeed. Actually, I don’t have a problem with any of it’s functions. Not that it does anything more some of it’s better competitors do, but when you go to the ballpark, they sure sell a lot of T-Shirts.

    1. Though I think it will succeed, it’s possible for it not to. It may even do well for the first six months, then plateau. If it does its job poorly (i.e, too slow, too many errors), or is constructed poorly (i.e, scratched or falls apart too easily), it will die just like the Cube died. It may get a second chance with an Apple Watch 2, but if that doesn’t fix the key things, it will then die.

      1. Good point. The home team won’t continue to sell t-shirts if they’re shoddy, itchy, fall apart after one wash, and so on. The product does actually have to be good, even when selling within Apple’s ecosystem. If it sucks, it won’t succeed. There isn’t any actual magic surrounding Apple products. They work well or they don’t, and that determines whether they succeed or not.

        1. True enough. They could sell out of the first batch, call it a success, and if the orders don’t continue, they can call it a hobby. 🙂

          1. I think we’ll see success re: the Apple Watch, and the hobby will be Android Wear. It’s an interesting problem, there isn’t actually much of a premium Android market segment, and that’s the segment willing to pay for the convenience a wearable delivers.

            We’re already seeing a lot of the “Meh, I can already do all that with my phone” argument. That’s an admission of placing little or no value on the convenience a wearable can deliver. Which is fine, that’s a valid choice, but that’s not a good market for wearables.

          2. My phone just updated to Lollipop this week, and I only now see a true added benefit of my Moto360 over my phone. You can set your lollipop based phone to not require a screen lock when both devices are with you. I did the same with my car.

          3. That’s a good example of how small the segment for wearables is on the Android side. It will grow of course, but it’s going to be quite slow I think.

          4. From a market point of view or a capability point of view. I don’t see the Moto360 being inferior to Apple Watch. They do, or can potentially do, the same things. I assume you mean market pov for both.

          5. The problem the Moto360 has is the segment it has to sell into, which isn’t great for wearables. The bulk of Android sales are the lower end of the market. Premium Android is very small.

            By far the most common thing I hear is some version of “my phone already does that why do I need a smartwatch?” That’s a big problem for Android Wear. Now, it could be the people I see saying this are just bashing Apple, but if they actually think their phone is good enough, Android Wear is going to have a very tough time getting traction. It will sell some of course, but it’ll be extremely hard for any one OEM to do enough business to justify R & D and innovation going forward. It will happen, but very, very slowly.

            Apple has a huge advantage because they already dominate the segment that is ripe for wearables. And like it or not, nothing can match the Apple Watch within the Apple ecosystem. Apple isn’t playing the same game, they’re alone on the field in a different part of town while all the Android OEMs are downtown playing rugby all at once on a small field.

            Something like the Moto360, while capable, can never match Apple Watch, it can never be as integrated or as smooth, and with wearables it is the tiny little details, the small conveniences, that make the difference.

            Bit of a tangent, but I hope the Moto360 can solve that cut off screen issue at some point, that looks so bad, such a glaring mistake, it drives me nuts every time I see a picture of it. But maybe it can be fixed at some point.

          6. Okay, so it is a market issue you’re addressing. It’s true, the watch does nothing the phones don’t do, other than spare the lock screen (so does the car). The only reason I got the 360 was that my regular watch broke, and any replacement these days would be as big.
            The dark band at the bottom goes away with dark watch faces.

          7. “the watch does nothing the phones don’t do”

            This is exactly why I think Android Wear is going to struggle. Wearables offer many small conveniences, a distribution of information between engine (phone) and screen (watch), it’s too subtle for most of the market. There is value but not enough to move most of the market, only the higher end segment, which is essentially Apple’s segment.

            It isn’t strictly a market issue, but that is Android Wear’s challenge, and Apple doesn’t have the same problem. On the functional side it is obvious that only the Apple Watch can integrate with the iPhone and the entire Apple ecosystem in a specific way. Is that an unfair advantage? Many would say yes. I would say it’s just sour grapes. Apple took decades to build out its ecosystem while others mocked the entire approach. Of course we see now how smart that approach really was, and continues to be. I recognized this as a teenager when my family bought the first Mac in 1984. I thought it was very, very smart to make the whole widget.

            “The dark band at the bottom goes away with dark watch faces.”

            Unfortunately, telling the time is only a small part of what the device will be doing, so the reality is the screen will look weird and borked most of the time. Surely there’s a way to fix that.

  2. “Since I have a computer on my desk and in my family room and in my pocket, why do I need one on my wrist? Why can’t I just take that wrist, send it into my pocket and use the iPhone contained therein?” ~ John Crudele

    This really made me laugh. Someone who has three computers, confidently declaring that having a fourth one would be nonsense. I think he is trying to hard and will soon be buying a smartwatch.

  3. The Apple Watch is different from other Apple products when it comes to fashion. While other Apple products may be seen to be fashionable, fashionability isn’t necessary for the product to be useful. For the watch, it must be fashionable or the majority of its target audience will not find it useful because they will not wear it. Computer geeks like me won’t care but one thing Apple understands is that the way to make a very successful product is to cater to the broader market. It confounds an industry that lives on feeds and speeds but Apple understands the regular user far better than anyone else in their business.

    I’m not qualified to judge if the Apple Watch is fashionable but I trust that Apple has figured this out.

  4. I agree with your three main jobs. Jobs 1 and 3 are about convenience – it could be done with iPhone but it would have more friction. The Mac/PC did (and still does) most of the jobs that iPhone (and even iPad) could do when they were introduced. But doing them on iPhone and iPad has much much less friction than doing them on Mac/PC (except when you’re already sitting in front of your Mac/PC).

    The release of the next AppleTV in the fall will be another Job 3 driver for Apple Watch, especially if AppleTV integrates social media.

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