Unpacked: Smartwatch Purchase Intent

Smartwatches will be a strong consumer tech storyline in 2016. In a few weeks, I will publish a post on my candidates for products that could play a role in ushering in the next paradigm shift in computing and the smartwatch will be on that list. Given the importance of this topic, today’s first edition of Unpack will dive into a couple of statistics shared in Deloitte’s latest Swiss Watch industry Report.

The Data

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Deloitte commissioned a study to look at smartwatch vs. classic mechanical watch purchase intent over the next 12 months. The results are above.

The three standouts are China, Italy, and France, which I find interesting for several reasons. First, China has not yet been a major factor in Apple Watch sales in particular and even less so with other smartwatches. Which suggests if the purchase intent holds up, Apple may see a big swing in China soon, perhaps as early as Chinese New Year. Italy and France are both fashion hubs, which could make an impact from this perspective if we see more rapid adoption of smartwatches from a fashion standpoint. The results of this part of the study in particular will cause me to keep a closer eye on how the fashion industry embraces smartwatches and thus overall influencing the mainstream over 2016.

The study went on to look at specific smartwatch brands being considered to purchase in each country.

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No huge surprises here, although China will be an area to watch as other companies like Huawei increase their investment in this area and Xiaomi likely enters the smartwatch market as well. In many cases, watches are more high-end purchases and, in all the countries covered, both Apple and Samsung are the larger players in the high-end smartphone segment. Still, this data, plus deeper intent to data of my own, confirm Apple is well positioned to capitalize on the upswing in 2016.

Lastly, the study looked at reasons consumers were not interested in a smartwatch. I consider questions like this important in understanding market sentiment of non-consumers of a category.

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You have to admire the commitment of the Swiss. But outside of super high-end mechanical watches for the wealthy, I’m convinced this industry is about to transition. The report I wrote a year ago still holds water on the matter. The results of the Deloitte survey also echo some of the results from the Wristly dissatisfaction data we gathered on Apple Watch owners. Price and need to unbundle from the phone are primary detractors at this point.

It needs to be mentioned that smartwatches are a brand new category. Some of the capabilities and most interesting use cases are ones consumers have no frame of reference for. Which is why many of us continue to emphasize the adoption cycle may be longer as consumers become more aware of the benefits.

From this data and more I’ll share over the next few months, we have enough proof points to justify that there is something here with this category. The “what” may still take time to flesh out but I’m confident at this point this is not a fad or a flop.

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Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

One thought on “Unpacked: Smartwatch Purchase Intent”

  1. Although there may be pundits that are still doubting the prospects of smartwatches, there is already more than enough evidence that the smartwatch category warrants significant investment. I sure that at least for the parties with a vested interest, ignoring the potential is no longer an option. It would be stupid not to invest, even if you are doubtful.

    Hence, it may already be time to move on to the next question. That would be, which platform should they invest in? Should they invest in Android Wear, Windows 10, or should they develop their own like Samsung with Tizen or Fitbit, Xiaomi with Miband?

    Interestingly, among the top brands mentioned in the purchase intent survey, only a few use Android Wear. Both Samsung and Swatch (and of course Apple) are using proprietary systems. It would be interesting to see how this plays out, and how it might affect the future ecosystem of the market.

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