Why Apple Could Have a 5G iPhone in the 2019 Lineup

Perhaps the biggest buzzard in the tech industry these days, besides AI, is 5G. 5G, or fifth generation cellular networks will eventually deliver 1-10 gig speeds of wireless data to smartphones, cars, smart cities, and smart devices.

5G is considered a transformational technology because it has the potential to be used in ways 1G to 4G could not be used in the past. Besides higher speeds, 5G modems could find their way into automobiles, street lights, roads, buildings, and throughout the home. It will be used in new types of business and consumer applications where a wireless connection link will be important to any device or application where connectivity is critical for it to work.

Over the last two years, the building blocks of 5G have accelerated, and in 2019 we will see pockets of 5G networks arise in the US and other parts of the world. However, the blanketing of most of the world will be at least a ten-year journey with developed countries getting 5G networks much sooner than developing countries.

This slow roll out of 5G has been causing a pause in many smartphone vendors plans as some see 2019 as not being a year in which 5G matters. For example, various rumors and reports suggest Apple will not include a 5G modem in any 2019 smartphones. While Samsung is expected to support 5G in a single high-end phone this year, they too are reportedly mostly putting 4G modems in any other smartphones they bring out in 2019.

Given that 5G will not be available worldwide for another 2-3 years at best, it does not seem important to put a 5G modem in most smartphones as early as 2019.

However, I would argue that Apple and others who create high-end and premium smartphones should have at least one 5G model in their 2019 line up for two key reasons.

First, smartphones today have a lifespan of around three years. In the past, especially with carrier subsidized deals, people upgraded every two years. With those carriers deals now a thing of the past, the average time a person has a smartphone has gone to three and even sometimes four years. That means that a smartphone they buy or upgrade to in 2019, at some point over the next 3-4 years could surely benefit from a 5G modem.

Second, for those wanting to upgrade in 2019 and want 5G as an insurance policy to make sure their phone can get 5G services over its lifespan, Apple and others who offer these 5G smartphones would have a model for these customers who have this interest and concern. For those in this category, if Apple does not have at least a 5G model to choose from, they could opt for one from Samsung or others that are expected to have at least one 5G phone in their line-up by the end of 2019. In this scenario, Apple would miss an early adopter cycle for some who would buy a 5G smartphone in 2019.

The problem for Apple at the moment is that their current modem supplier, Intel, will not have a 5G modem ready for the market until 2020. And as we learned this week from Apple COO Jeff Williams’ testimony in the FTC vs. Qualcomm trial, Qualcomm has refused to sell Apple any modems for new phones while these court battles between Qualcomm and Apple are unresolved.

My hope is for Apple’s sake, this legal tussle with Qualcomm comes to some form of resolution if not compromise over the next few months so that Apple could include a 5G modem in at least one model by the end of 2019. If not, they could miss a group of early adopters who want a 5G phone this year knowing that it will be in use for at least another three years, and would force them to buy one of the Android models that include a 5G modem instead.

Published by

Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc. He is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.

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