For the last few months, we have been writing about the fact that millions of people, especially the younger generation, came into the digital age via smartphones. More importantly, their primary OS has been Apple’s iOS or Google’s Android. While Windows is still an important OS, it is mainly used for PCs. For billions of people taking part in the digital revolution, they have never used Windows and most likely never will.
This has led us to believe that, when this younger generation of users moves into the workforce, they will want to have the OS, tools and apps they grew up with and will want to use them as they go off to school and work as they grow older. We believe Apple understands this well and is moving more and more to make iOS important for all of their customers. With the iPad Pro, they are even creating a new set of devices using iOS targeted at business. I believe we will even see an iOS-based laptop in the not too distant future.
I think Google understands this to some extent as they continue to push Android developers to create more productivity apps and ones that can be used in all types of business settings, albeit mostly targeted for use on smartphones and tablets. But Google’s approach differs from Apple in that they have also introduced another operating system into their program called Chrome. This is an HTML-based OS and is the OS they push to laptops and even some all-in-one desktop computers as an alternative. To date, Chrome and Chromebooks have made some progress including major inroads into the education market.
But I see Google at an important crossroads. While Chrome is an interesting OS in its own right, it is Android in both an official and unofficial form that dominates the market for mobile. I believe it should be the principal OS Google pushes to a younger generation as they move into the workforce. At the moment, Google has what I would call a hybrid solution. Instead of working with hardware vendors to create Android laptops and 2-in-1s, they are pushing them towards using Chrome as the core OS and then creating a way for any Android app to work within Chrome.
The key reason they are doing this is because they have lost control of Android and, at the moment, they are not making the kind of money off Android they originally hoped they would. By fragmenting the OS and making it open source, mobile vendors have created their own versions of Android and, in millions of devices that use it, they are not tied back to Google’s services or ads since these vendors customize their version and create their own apps and services instead.
But with Chrome, they can enforce their control again since you can’t get into the OS without your Google ID and password. Then, once you are in, you are immediately tied to Google’s products and services including search and their productivity tools. This might be OK for some people but, for most of the world, this would not be acceptable. Indeed, we are starting to see some vendors, especially in emerging markets and one’s that are trying to bring PCs to a younger generation, starting to create Android based 2-in-1s and cheap Android laptops. They believe the iOS and Android generation could, at some point, want a device with a larger screen to be used for things like productivity, education, etc.
Today, companies like Xioami, Huawei and MicroMax have moved from smartphones to are either making laptops or rumored to be making one soon and, while they are–or will be–low-cost Windows laptops now, we expect them to soon offer Android-based 2-in-1s and laptops very soon. They are not the only ones planning Android 2-in-1s and laptops. I expect even some of the bigger PC vendors to do Android portable PCs in the not to distant future as well.
If Google continues to think Chrome running Android apps will work in emerging markets they are delusional. And, if they don’t find way to support these Android 2-in-1s and laptops as they come out, they will lose this Android battle too. Google is at a serious crossroads with this. At the moment, they are not backing any Android based 2-in-1s or laptops in the works and I see that as a major mistake. Hoping to attract the Android crowd to a PC platform by giving them Android apps, which may or may not run well within Chrome, may work in the US but this strategy is a dead end for them in the rest of the world.
I am curious as to why Xaiomi, Huawei and MicroMax are currently offering low cost Windows laptops instead of the Android ones as you expect.
Has there been a technical or licensing hurdle, or is it simply that customers, even those in developing countries who have never used a Windows PC before, are nonetheless more interested in Windows? Has Google actively sabotaged any attempts by the aforementioned companies to put Android on laptops?
In the absence of any obstructions from Google, I would presume that Xaiomi, Huawei and MicroMax have simply been developing what their customers wanted. You seem to be saying that this is not the case, and this is very interesting.
Actually, many are doing dual-boot, either/or, or 2 equivalent products with either OS. Xiaomi’s laptop isn’t out, but their new tablet is available with either Android or Windows. Lesser-tier OEMs ship devices (tablets, laptops, mini-PCs) both OS pre-installed, sometimes with a tool to remove one and recover its storage.
I’d assume they’re doing it because the cost is essentially nil, Android and Windows on =<10" tablets are both free. There's probably enough either/or demand, and enough dual-boot-specific demand, to make the small extra engineering effort worthwhile. I'm not putting MS above having "incentives" to bundle Windows, either.
I think one of the explanations for the rise of Windows on Chinese stuff is that the devices' quality has risen tremendously in 3-4 years, and they now can be used for work, not just media playing / Angry Birds.
Also Windows is dominant in PC installed base in China. I’d argue a Android 2-1 is less about China market and more India, Indonesia, Brazil, Africa, etc.
Since there is no country where Windows market share is not at or above 80%, I assume you are saying that PCs are used quite a lot in China whereas the Indian, Indonesian, Brazilian and African people don’t use PCs too much. Hence less affinity towards Windows.
To check on this, I just took a quick look at StatCounter Web access data (the poor-mans’ trove of data), and I was able to confirm at least for India, Indonesia and Africa. Not so for Brazil, but web access data is messy.
Web stats might even under-report the differences: I’d assume Consumer devices to be represented a lot more than Entrerprise devices ? (ie, users to Facebook 10x more from their phone than from their Work PC)
You are probably right.
Yes, I’m fairly sure I’ve shared PC penetration by country stats before here. Around 400-430m PCs in China mostly Windows.. Biggest Windows PC market by far with US a clear second. No one else even close.
Opportunity for iOS Pro devices?
Also AFAIK Google has been slightly supportive of any OEM doing weird stuff with Android. Tv boxes, Mini PCs, laptops, desktops…. haven’t been banned from the PlayStore, which would be exceedingly easy: check from sensors, touchscreen…
First-tier OEMs have done it too: HP and Toshiba with laptops, Dell with an Android thin client, Xiaomi with a TV box, Asus with a convertible pretty much since day 1… and second/third tier OEMs are all over the place.
Google even haven’t kicked up a fuss about Jide Windows-izing Android, with a Start menu, (limited) resizable windows…
It really seems Google are sticking to their laissez-faire guns: put *all* our stuff in w/o messing with it, make sure PlayStore apps run, then you can do whatever.
Yes, I know. You’ve been telling us that maybe a hundred times. 🙂
Point is, that seemingly contradicts with the narrative of this article, and I was hoping for “insider” clarification.
“But with Chrome, they can enforce their control again since you can’t get into the OS without your Google ID and password. Then, once you are in, you are immediately tied to Google’s products and services including search and their productivity tools. ”
I agree that this is not a desirable situation at all. To me, that’s a dystopian future. But they would be ‘vertically integrating’ the software aspects of the machine. Where have I heard that before? All the criticism I’ve flung towards Apple for these practices, would also apply to Chrome.
Great Article … there needs to be more serious consideration of ChromeOS by analysts. I would argue it’s not a question of either Android or ChromeOS. It’s perfectly fine to have both. ChromeOS is good for education and businesses …. It’s excellent for users that are unable or uninterested in the complexities of maintaining security and systems.
In a way its about accessibility ….