Will the Next War be Fought in Cyberspace?

When we think of warfare from a historical perspective, we mainly look at various forms of field, air, naval and even nuclear combat as ways to fight and win wars. Hundreds of books have been written about conflicts and, even today, the interest in how the Germans were defeated in WW II is still a hot topic and Hollywood’s recent portrayal of how Alan Turing and his team broke the Enigma code in “The Imitation Game” was Oscar material earlier this year.

Most countries need to have a physical military force ready to protect their country and their interests and, while our defense costs is a significant portion of the overall US budget, I fear the next major war may be fought in cyberspace. And the US is not even close to being prepared to fight this war and able to fend off the kind of attacks we might face that could cripple our financial systems, power grids and our communications.

The recent hacking of the US Army and a federal employee database should raise great concerns by US leaders and citizens. I believe this signals a serious change in our enemy’s warfare strategy. I was talking to some friends who are in the security field and they raised the issue that it appears Russia and China have created their own military division of cyber hackers and they are being treated as part of their overall military contingency. For years, these hackers were seen more as teams of people who were part of a diverse group who would focus on a hodge-podge of targets. But it appears that, with these more focused targets like the US Army and federal employee database, these groups are much more organized. I would not be surprised if they are a strategic part of these countries’ military efforts with various goals in mind more nefarious than we want to admit. Add to that the efforts of criminals and terrorists who want to harm the US and the amount of cyber warfare the US may have to deal with in the future could be significant.

I am sure the US understands the gravity of these attacks but I think it is time to start thinking about expanding our own cyber military activities, not only to counter these outside hackers that target US entities, but to become a more strategic force of our own. I think the US needs to bulk up their own strategic cyber teams if they want to keep up with or stay ahead of these countries who have no interest in honoring our western ways of thinking about privacy and the sanctity of the individual.

My key concern about the US being able to counter this with the right personnel is our tech talent pool that could be tapped to work in this area is limited by the fact many of our top engineers and scientists are lured to work at Google, Apple and a multitude of large companies who will pay them big bucks to keep their corporate sites safe. While this is important, I fear key areas that really need to be kept safe — our utilities and government and military sites — also need serious digital security and will not have the talent to fend off these attacks from cyber criminals and countries that want to cause havoc here at home.

On the other hand, China is pumping out thousands of engineers and software security people who get funneled directly to their own military, government and Chinese government-backed businesses and have a rich talent pool to tap into in order go after any government-related activities they deem strategic to their own security and benefit. Russia is doing the same thing. People graduating with engineering degrees are directed to government-related jobs that work at the whim and direction of the Russian leaders.

You may think I am paranoid about this issue but, given what has happened lately as well as the attacks on companies like Target, Home Depot and some of our financial institutions, it seems reasonable to believe these attacks will become even more sophisticated and more numerous with motivations that could cause great harm to the US and its people in the near future. I hope our federal and state officials really understand the gravity of these organized Chinese and Russian hackers now part of their military machine as well as criminal elements and terrorists and that the US and Europe have become a greater target because of who we are and the kinds of freedoms we offer our citizens. If not, I am not sure we could win a cyber war without the skills and expertise of a larger talent pool to pull from given the expanded forces China, Russia and others have at their disposal to carry out their strategic goals. Some of them clearly will be aimed at the US.

Published by

Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc. He is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.

2 thoughts on “Will the Next War be Fought in Cyberspace?”

  1. Any significant act of cyberwar will result in two things: 1) A massive counter attack by the United States with its offensive cyber weapons and 2) Cyber warfare going kinetic with surgical strikes against enemy leadership, command and control, and cyber infrastructure.

    The United States has THE best cyber offence in the world, but its defences are lacking. America’s adversaries know the US has capabilities beyond everyone else, much like the rest of its military. Offensive US cyber weapons act as a deterrant just like its nuclear arsenal, and its 11 Nimitz carriers and dozens of air bases worldwide. A cyber attack against the US would result in a kinetic response that ends regimes. America’s adversaries know this.

    I don’t buy much into the narrative that the US will or is falling behind on the basis of college grad stats, or the number of engineers certain countries are producing. I think the United States has clearly shown that quality trumps quantitiy. Many militaries are physically larger than the US, but they couldn’t stand a chance against US hardware, tactics, and its ability to deploy troops anywhere on a moment’s notice. Despite the US spending what the next 18 countries do on their militaries, the United States has an incredibly small miliitary relative to its global footprint.

    All you have to do is look at Stuxnet. It’s the tip of a much larger iceberg and is regarded by many within the intelligence community as some of the most brilliant computer code ever written. It’s just a taste of what America has at its disposal.

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