- XRP price needs to hold above $2.75 to trigger a recovery in October, potentially driven by spot ETF approval and the influx of institutional capital.
- A break above the $2.81 resistance is crucial, with technical projections indicating a possible 30% rally to $3.62.
- XRP faces a key test near the Sept. 1 open at $2.75, which aligns with the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle.
- Holding above this trendline may increase the chance of breaking past the descending trendline near $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average), leading to a significant upward movement.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $2.75 could trigger a bearish move, aligned with patterns from the symmetrical triangle.
What they’re saying:
- Analyst Hardy pointed out, via a post on X, that as long as XRP holds above the $2.72-$2.75 range, the upside potential remains in play.
- Another analyst, XForceGlobal, noted that extended consolidation at this level could result in a stronger breakout, although a dip to $2.50 before a rebound remains possible.
Historical Performance: October has historically been a challenging month for XRP, with negative returns in seven of the past 12 years, averaging a -4.58% decline. Conversely, November tends to be the best month for XRP, making the October-December period the most favorable quarter, with average gains of 51%.
Upcoming Events: Potential ETF approvals could provide a bullish catalyst. Key deadlines include Grayscale’s decision expected on Oct. 18, with other applications’ deadlines between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
Market analysts have noted that while these approvals could spark rallies, there is a risk that positive news might already be priced in, leading to a “sell the news” reaction.
XRP was created by Ripple as a bridge currency for its payments network, which helps global banks send money across borders instantly and with negligible costs. The cryptocurrency has a total supply of 100 billion tokens, with 59.8 billion currently in circulation.
The SEC lawsuit: The SEC sued Ripple in 2020, arguing that XRP should be classified as a financial security. The lawsuit significantly depressed XRP’s price for years. However, a judge ruled in August 2024 in favor of Ripple.
Potential downside:
- Banks don’t have to use XRP to benefit from instant cross-border transactions through the Ripple Payments network, as the network also supports fiat currencies.
- Ripple launched its own stablecoin called RLUSD at the end of 2024, which could be more appealing to risk-averse banks.
- The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple had a significant impact on the price of XRP, and there is no guarantee that the U.S. government will maintain its crypto-friendly approach in future administrations.
The turning point: On August 7th, Ripple Labs’ prolonged legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concluded, resulting in a $125 million settlement. More crucially, Ripple obtained regulatory clarity that will guide its operations moving forward.
The first XRP ETF: Earlier this year, Osprey Fund launched a U.S.-based ETF called XRPR. This ETF had a better-than-expected trading volume on its first day but saw little effect on XRP’s market price.
Whale breach and investor hesitation: Recently, XRP investors, known as “whales,” sold about 160 million XRP over a short span, affecting the token’s price. One reason for the lack of price movement might be the anticipation of other XRP spot ETFs still awaiting approval.
The stablecoin influence: After overcoming regulatory challenges, Ripple has been expanding its global footprint, including launching a national trust banking charter application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). If successful, this charter would allow Ripple to issue and custody digital assets like RLUSD.
XRP’s role: Banks may favor the transaction speed offered by XRP, though its volatility remains a risk factor. With Ripple’s strategic push towards stablecoins, it remains to be seen how XRP will fit into this evolving landscape.
Future prospects: As new spot ETFs await approval in November, there’s potential for renewed enthusiasm and investment in XRP. The response from the financial sector will be crucial in determining whether XRP continues to rise or encounters obstacles.
