Tag: ZTE

NVIDIA’S Tegra 3 Leading the Way for Smartphone Modularity

I have been an advocate of modularity before it became popular to do so. The theory seems straight-forward to me, in that if the capabilities of a smartphone were outpacing the usage model drivers of a rich client PC, then consumers someday could use their own smartphone as a PC.  Large displays, keyboards and mice still exist in this usage model, but the primary intelligence is in the smartphone then combined with wireless peripherals.  At this year’s Mobile World Congress, NVIDIA took us one step closer to this reality with their partners and the formal announcement of Tegra 3 based smartphones.

Tegra 3 for Smartphones

Tegra 3 is NVIDIA’s latest and greatest SOC for smartphones, “superphones“,  and tablets.  It has four ARM A9- based high performance, 1.5 GHz cores and one “battery saver” core that operates when the lowest power is required.  The fifth core comes in handy when the system is idling or when the phone is checking for messages.  Tegra 3 also includes a very high performance graphics subsystem for games and watching HD video, much more powerful than Qualcomm’s current Adreno 2XX hardware and software implementation.

clip_image004NVIDIA announced five major Tegra 3 designs at Mobile World Congress; the HTC One X, LG Optimus 4X HD, ZTE Era, Fujitsu’s “ultra high spec smartphone” and the K-Touch Treasure V8.  These wins were in what NVIDIA coins as “superphones” as they have the largest screens, the highest resolutions, the best audio, etc.  You get the idea.  For example, the HTC One X sports a 4.7″ 720P HD display, the latest Android 4.0 OS, Beats audio, NFC (Near Field Communication), and its own image processor with a 28mm lens to take great pictures at extremely low light.  You get the idea.

There is a lot of goodness in the package, but that doesn’t remove the challenge of communicating the benefits of four cores on a 5 inch screen device.

Quad Core Phone Challenge

As I wrote previously, NVIDIA needs to overcome the challenge of leveraging four cores beyond the spec on the retail tear clip_image002pad.  It’s a two part challenge, the first to actually make sure there is a real benefit, then to articulately and simply communicate that.  These are similar challenges PC manufacturers had to deal with.  The difference is that PC makers had 20 years of dual socket machines to establish an ecosystem and a messaging system.  Quad core tablets are an easier challenge and quad core convertibles are even easier in that you can readily spot places where 4 cores matter like web browsing and multitasking. Smartphones is a different situation in that due to screen size limitations, multitab browsing and multitasking rarely pegs a phone to its limits.  One major exception is in a modular environment where NVIDIA shines the most.

Tegra 3 Shines the Most in Modular Usage Models

Modularity, simply put, is extending the smartphone beyond the built-in limitations. Those limitations are in the display, audio, and input mechanisms.  When the smartphone breaks the barriers of itself, this is where NVIDIA Tegra 3 shines the most.  I want to be clear; Tegra 3 is a competitive and differentiated smartphone and tablet SOC without modularity, but is most differentiated when it breaks free from its limited environment.

NVIDIA has done a much better job showing the vision of modularity but its partners could do a better job actually delivering it.  On the positive side, partners are showing some levels of modularity. HTC just announced the HTC Link for the HTC One X, software and hardware solution that plugs into an HDTV where you can wirelessly mirror what is on the phone’s display.  It’s like Apple’s AirPlay but better in some ways like being able to project a video on the large display and do something different on the phone display, like surfing the web.  Details are a bit sketchy specifically for the HTC One X and HTC Link, but I am hopeful they will roll out some useful modular features in the future for usage models. Apple already supports wireless mirroring supporting games so in this way, HTC Link is behind.

What NVIDIA Tegra 3 Should Do

What NVIDIA’s partners need to create is a game console and digital media adapter solution that eliminates the need to buy an XBOX, PlayStation, Wii, Roku, or Apple TV.  The partners then need to attack that.  All of the base clip_image006software and hardware is already there and what HTC, ZTE, or LG needs to do now is package it to make it more convenient for gaming. This Tegra 3 “phone-console” should have a simple base near the TV providing it power, wired LAN, HDMI, and USB.  This way, someone could connect a wireless game controller and play games like the recently announced Tegra 3 optimized games in great resolutions with rich audio. The user would have the ability to send phone calls to voice mail or even to a Bluetooth headset.  Notifications can be muted if desired as well.  And of course, if you want to watch Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon movies it’s all there, too.  The alternative to this scenario is for a Wi-Fi Direct implementation that doesn’t require a base where the user can utilize the phone as a multi-axis game controller with force feedback.  The challenge here is battery life but the user can pause the game or movie and pick up phone calls and messages. This usage model isn’t for everyone, but think for a moment about a teenager or college bound guy who loves gaming, wants a cool phone, and doesn’t have the cash to buy everything.  You know the type.

Other types of modularity that NVIDIA’s partners must develop are around productivity, where the phone drives a laptop shell, similar to Motorola’s Lapdock implementations as I analyzed here. Neither the software, hardware, or price made the Lapdock a good solution, but many of the technologies now exist to change that.  NVIDIA’s Tegra 3 would be a great start in that it enables real multitasking when using the Lapdock in clamshell PC mode.  Android 4.0 provides a much more modular computing environment to properly display applications on a 5″ and 11″ display including scaling the fonts and reorienting windows.  The Motorola Lapdock used two environments, one Android Gingerbread a a different one for PC mode.  Unsurprisingly, it was a good start but very rough one too, with room to improve.

NVIDIA, the Silicon Modularity Leader with Tegra 3

NVIDIA with its Tegra 3 solution is clearly the current silicon leader to support future modular use cases.  They are ahead of the pack with their modularity vision, patiently waiting for their partners to catch up.  This was the most evident at CES where NVIDIA showed an ASUS Transformer Prime connected to an XBOX controller and an HDTV playing high quality games. They also demoed the Prime playing high end PC games through remote desktop. Now that is different.

The opportunity for HTC, ZTE, LG and potentially new customers like Sony, RIM, and Nokia is there, and the only question remains is if they see the future well enough to capitalize on it.  With all the complaints from handset vendors on differentiation and profitability with Android, I continue to be puzzled by their lack of aggression.  An aggressive handset maker will jump on this opportunity in the next two years and make a lot of money doing in the process.

The Case for Intel’s Future Smartphone Success

In my many weekly conversations with industry insiders we discuss Intel’s chances in mobility markets, specifically smartphones. Few people are betting against Qualcomm and for very good reason in that they are entrenched at handset vendors and their 2012 roadmap, at least on paper, looks solid. What few are discussing is how Intel will pick up market share. My last column on Intel’s smartphone efforts outlined what Intel needs to demonstrate quickly to start gaining share and getting people to believe they can be a player. Now I want to take a look at why I believe Intel can and will pick up relevant market share over the next three years.

Intel Finally Broke the Code with Medfield

This isn’t Intel’s first time in mobility. Intel owned XScale, an ARM-based mobile processor that was in the most popular WinCE devices like the Compaq iPaq, one of the more popular Pocket PCs. XScale products even powered Blackberrys for a time as well. Intel sold the entire XScale mobile application processor business to Marvell in 2006 for $600M. This move was driven by Intel’s desire to focus on X86 designs. What followed were some failed mobile attempts with Menlo and Moorestown, two low power, Atom-branded processors that made their way into MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices). It appeared that Intel would make grand announcements with big names like LG for smartphones then nothing would happen afterward. Things are very different with Medfield. Handsets are at China Unicom in testing for Lenovo and Motorola announced their handsets would be at carriers for the summer.

Medfield is a huge step forward in design and integration for Intel. First, it combines the application processor with I/O capabilities on a single chip. This saves handset makers integration time and board space. Secondly, it is paired with the Intel XMM 6260 radio based on the Infineon Wireless Solutions (WLS) acquisition. This increases the Intel revenue BOM (Bill of Material) and also helps with handset integration. Finally, Intel has embraced the Android mobile OS in a huge way with a large developer investment and will provide optimized drivers for Medfield’s subsystems. This move is in contrast to their MeeGo OS efforts that didn’t go anywhere. Intel has even gone to the effort to emulate ARM instructions so that it can run native apps that talk directly to ARM. These apps are typically games that need to be closer to the hardware. This is a very good start for Intel, but as I tell my clients, if there are 10 steps to mobile silicon success, Intel just successfully crossed step 3.

It’s a Tough Smartphone Market

Intel made some very serious headway with Medfield, but it is a very competitive market out there. According to IDC, in Q4 2011, Apple and Samsung combined to garner almost 50% of the smartphone market. As I pointed out in my previous column, Apple already designs their A-Series processors and I don’t see that changing. I expect Samsung with the exception of the very low end to lean into their own Exynos silicon. Nokia at 12% Q4 smartphone share is tied to Windows Phone and Qualcomm at least for the short term. Struggling RIM doesn’t need another variable to worry about with their muddled operating system strategy and is currently tied to Qualcomm. Finally, HTC is rumored to tie up with NVIDIA on its Tegra platform on the high end. Who does this leave for Intel?

For Intel in the short term, with Motorola and Lenovo on-board, this leaves private label for carriers, LG, Sony, ZTE, Huawei, Kyocera, Sanyo and a very long tail of small manufacturers. The long tail will be a challenge for Medfield until Intel waterfalls the products line to be cost-competitive with lower end models. I expect Intel to start waterfalling products down in the end of 2012.

Why Intel Could Succeed

While I outlined the many challenges, Intel could very well succeed in the space longer term. First, the phone marketplace is a rapidly changing market. Not only have there been tremendous share shifts in the last two years, but feature phones are migrating to smartphone market resulting in exploding growth.

Operating systems are clear from shaking out. Microsoft will not go gently into the night with Windows Phone and will invest what it takes to be successful even if it takes another Nokia-like investment to own another platform. I also believe once Microsoft starts gaining share, they will devote resources for X86 on Windows Phone 8 or 9 platforms. They see Intel as successful with Medfield and the WINTEL alliance could be brought back from the dead. Long-term, I do not believe Samsung will be happy licensing someone else’s operating system, particularly with Apple’s integration and experience success. I expect Samsung to do one of three things, possibly two; increase investment in Bada to a point that it can compete with Android in a closed environment, embrace webOS, oe lean heavily into Tizen. Marketplaces in dynamic change are an opportunity for newcomers, even companies worth $140B like Intel.

One other important factor that hasn’t fully played out is “carrier versus handset-maker” dominance. Up until the Apple iPhone, the carriers dictated terms to the handset makers. Every carrier who has adopted the iPhone has taken a gross margin reduction. This doesn’t mean they made a bad decision; they had to carry the iPhone. That carrier margin reduction money is going to Apple and not the carriers. Carriers are strategizing how they can regain that dominance going forward and I believe Intel will part of those plans. Intel has the capability to partner with an extremely low cost manufacturer or ODM an entire solution, white label it to a carrier and provide a competitive Android experience. I expect a few key announcements this month at this year’s Mobile World Congress.

Of course, we cannot forget about Intel’s technology. According to tests run at Anandtech, Intel’s Medfield is competitive in power at 32nm LP so you must assume that it only gets better at Intel’s 22nm 3DTri–Gatetechnology. Intel will roll Atom into 22nm in 2013 and 14nm in 2014. This is all the while in 2012 TSMC is at best case at 28nm and GLOBALFOUNDRIES and Samsung is at 32nm.

I define success as the ability to reach a relevant level of profitable business that supports the desired brand goals. For Intel, this doesn’t need to be 80% like they have in the PC market, but needs to be a profitable 20%.

What this Means for Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and NVIDIA

Over a period of three years, Intel will start to take market share from Qualcomm, Texas Instruments and NVIDIA, albeit very small in 2012. As Intel integrates wireless, moves to 14nm, and waterfalls their offerings to lower price point smartphones, this makes much more competitive to handset makers and carriers. I expect Huawei, ZTE, or a major carrier to go big with Intel in 2013 which will make a huge difference. One thing to remember about Intel; unlike others in the marketplace, Intel also captures the manufacturing margin TSMC and GLOBALFOUNDRIES makes and the design margin ARM earns. While Intel has a long way to go in proving themselves, they have the start they never had before at a time to take advantage of the mammoth growth in smartphones. Never count Intel out of any market, no matter how many times they have tried and failed.