Near the end of June, we road tripped to Denver for my cousin’s wedding. I do some of my best thinking while I drive long distances, and this trip had me thinking about the coming fusion of technology and the automobile industry. As I drove, I observed quite a number of cars in different states and also observed the widely varying gas prices from California to Denver.
My main thesis for the adoption of fully electric cars has always been that of a very long road. There is a range of circumstances that need to change in order for fully electric cars to make more sense than gas-powered ones. Now to clarify, when I talk about fully electric car adoption, I’m not talking about autonomy at the same time. We are seeing electric vehicles being adopted that do not have fully autonomous features, but I maintain technology + autonomy will play a key role in tipping the scales from gas to electric vehicles in the consumer’s mind.
My main belief is price + technology + grid will be the formula for driving EV adoption. And unfortunately, all three have a long way to go to make more sense than a gas vehicle for most consumers.
Price
As of today, in most markets, fully electric vehicles do not have price parity with gas-powered ones. Which causes the struggle right off the bat. If a consumer is torn on the decision, the price will often be the deciding factor. Even if it logically makes sense that cost to charge vs. the cost of gas over time will save them money, that initial higher price of the car can be a deal-breaker. For this, however, it is interesting to look at Norway as a use case for EV adoption.
Norway has, easily, the highest installed base and annual sales of EVs compared to any other country. They did this by having significant tax breaks, financial incentives, and other cost benefits for EVs and not for gas cars. While the sticker price may be similar, the Norweigan government offers a range of tax breaks and financial incentives that make EVs the clear and more cost-conscious choice. For context, 54% of cars sold in Norway are fully electric. In the US, EVs make up less than 5% of all car sales.
I came across a global survey on EVs by a large investment bank, and interestingly, 80% of consumers in the survey indicated they would only pay the same or less for an EV. Only 20% said they would be willing to pay more for a fully EV than a gas-powered vehicle (which includes hybrids). But the initial price of the car is not the only factor. Consumers are looking at the total cost of ownership, where the annual cost of gas vs. the annual cost to charge is a factor. But even in that case, there are some variables. The main one being, will there be a cost to charge the car, if needed, outside your home. If so, will the cost prices to charge vary, and if so, by how much?
It seems Norway gives us the best model of how EVs will broaden adoption in the foreseeable future. They essentially make it less economically viable, via the taxes imposed, on gas vehicles, and regulations favor EVs making them the easiest choice for consumers.
Technology
As car companies are forced to become technology companies, this is where things will get really interesting, in my opinion. And, again, this is a decade or more (likely more) of competitive battles that will play out. That line, which has now become a meme, that “technology companies won’t just walk in here and..” is apt in automotive as I’m sure many automotive execs are vastly overestimating how “hard” it is to build a car. The likely reality is that tech forward-thinking companies will absolutely come into the automotive market and disrupt the incumbents for the simple reason that the technology part is the hardest part, contrary to what the incumbent believes. For this reason, I’m still bullish on Tesla and Apple since it seems clear they will enter this market somehow at some point.
In an increasingly technologically forward world, companies who approach a market with a mindset where technology (hardware, software, cloud services) is the central advantage for them will generally disrupt the incumbents. I think this will be true of nearly any market, retail, healthcare, automotive, etc.
That being said, I thought this article was interesting with the headline Nvidia is Detroit’s Only Hope to Beat Tesla was directionally on the right track. I agree with the author’s point that Nvidia has the complete solution,. Most incumbent automotive companies will be incapable of building this technology on their own like Tesla and Apple and, therefore, will need to get the solution from someone else. But, this means we will end up having an automotive world that looks and functions much like the Windows and Android hardware ecosystem world, which makes it much harder to compete and differentiate since, like in Windows and Android hardware ecosystems, those vendors end up competing more with each other than with the more vertical competitors like Apple, and Tesla in the automotive space.
Interestingly, Apple and Tesla will be extremely fun to watch at some point. I worry slightly about Apple’s attempts in automotive because they will likely stick to their premium strategy and go mostly after the higher-end markets. Where Tesla is trying to hit all markets from entry to premium and is much more philosophically like Apple (vertically oriented) than any competitor, Apple has ever faced. Suffice it to say, I’m extremely excited about that competition.
The Grid
I’ve left the grid point for last because while it is important, I don’t think it is the most important of the three. The main difference for EV owners is they can charge at home and at work. We don’t have gas stations at our house or places of work, so the need for a built-out EV charging grid compared to the gas station network is less relevant. That being said, it does factor into consumer thinking.
There is still peace of mind around gas vehicles that you will always conveniently find a gas station in a pinch. As of now, Tesla is the only company where a similar peach of mind exists. Tesla stations are mostly convenient, but thanks to Tesla software, it will always, intelligently, guide you to a charging station before you run out of power. Tesla’s grid is a big difference, in my opinion, and one that will be particularly tricky for competitors.
As different charging grids for EVs get built out in key locations and consumers become more mindful of where their options are, it will help ease the concern of being stranded with a drained battery. But this will again take time and is more evidence for my thesis that this is a very long road of adoption for fully electric cars.
If we see 30% global penetration of EVs by 2030, I’ll be very impressed.
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Diş hassasiyeti, dişlerde sıcak, soğuk, tatlı veya asidik yiyecek ve içeceklerle temas ettiğinde oluşan rahatsızlık hissidir. Hassas dişler genellikle diş minesinin incelmesi veya diş eti çekilmesi sonucunda ortaya çıkar. Diş hassasiyetinin başlıca nedenleri arasında agresif diş fırçalama, diş sıkma, çürükler, diş minesinin erozyonu, dişeti hastalıkları ve diş eti çekilmesi bulunur.
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