Apple Claim Chowder: Killers

With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much.

Killers

There is a long, sordid history of products being introduced as iPod, iPhone, and iPad Killers. You know the deal. Product “X” is introduced and it will be an Apple Killer because hypothetical products of the future are always superior to Apple products of today, yada, yada, yada. The problem with this theory is that repeated experience has shown that it just ain’t so.

The only thing experience teaches us is that experience teaches us nothing. ~ Andre Maurois

My rule of thumb is that a product isn’t real until it 1) has a ship date; 2) has a firm price; and 3) has been reviewed by independent third parties.

In the case of news, we should always wait for the sacrament of confirmation. ~ Voltaire

You would think that critics would want to wait until AFTER they had gotten their hands on a product, and perhaps even wait until AFTER they had received some actual sales numbers, before declaring said product a “killer” of anything. But no. Why wait when one can be so wrong, so far ahead of time?

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. ~ Sir Arthur Conan Doyle as Sherlock Holmes, From “A Scandal in Bohemia”

Below is a rogue’s list some past Apple “Killers”, grouped by company. I am quite confident that critics have learned nothing from the past and that they will soom be adding many more “Killers” to the list come this Fall. Critics and competitors alike should remember the words of Helmuth von Moltke the Elder (attributed) before declaring any product an Apple “Killer”:

No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

Joker

Amazon

If everything that we have heard about the upcoming Kindle tablet is true (upgraded Android front end, 7-inch touch screen, $250 price), we think AMZN will have another big product success. ~ Naked Value, 27 Sept 2011

Last year, we wanted to build the best tablet at a certain price. And, this year, we wanted to build the best tablet at any price. Take away the price and it’s still the best tablet. It also happens to be only $499. ~ Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon.com, 6 Sep 2012

Feature for feature – the latest Amazon) Kindle Fire is better than the latest iPad. ~ James Altucher, Seeking Alpha, 27 January 2013

Amazon is well on its way to effectively replicate Apple’s business model. ~ Victor Anthony, Topeka Capital, 25 September 2013

Blackberry

blackberry-playbook-amateur-hour-is-over-2But when it comes right down to it, the BlackBerry Storm will be the superior mobile device and represents a true iPhone killer. ~ Andrew Hickey, ChannelWeb, 14 Nov 2008

At today’s BlackBerry developer’s event, RIM announced their iPad-beater: the PlayBook. ~ Brian Barrett, Gizmodo, 27 September 2010

Just the pent-up interest in the PlayBook is really overwhelming. ~ Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO, Research In Motion, 16 December 2010

The launch of Storm 3 gives RIMM the long-awaited answer to the iPhone and high-end Android devices. ~ Michael Li, Investing Blog, 16 January 2011

The sales of the PlayBook have been fantastic, we’ve re-ordered multiple times and it’s exceeded our expectations. ~ Ben McIntosh, Harvey Norman’s Computers, Australia, 22 Aug 2011

‘iPhone Killer’ BlackBerry 10 is here: iPhone is Dead! ~ Bob Brown, InfoWorld, 30 January 2013

Sorry Apple, the BlackBerry Z10 Is Hotter Than the iPhone. ~ Jesus Diaz, Gizmodo, 28 January 2013

BlackBerry 10 will be launching here in the US soon and I think they will increase their share to 3rd place and may even pass iOS in a couple years. ~ Matthew Miller, ZDNet, 14 February 2013

Google

Google plans ‘to market a tablet of the highest quality’ in the next six months. ~ Eric Schmidt, Chairman, Google, 19 Dec 2011

Put simply, the Nexus 7 has redefined the mini-tablet category and raised the bar enough that it doesn’t matter whether Apple releases a Retina-class iPad mini this year or not. ~ Paul Thurrott, Paul Thurrott’s Supersite for Windows, 1 August 2013

If Galaxy Gear quickly creates a buzz, it will be hard not to look at the new iPhone and wonder why Apple is late to the smartwatch party. Samsung’s timing is beautifully calculated to challenge Cupertino. ~ Douglas Ehrman, Seeking Alpha, 5 September 2013

Hewlett Packard (HP)

8 Reasons Why Apple Should Fear HP/Palm… ~ Devin Connors, Tom’s Hardware, 7 May 2010

I hope one day people will say ‘this is as cool as HP’, not ‘as cool as Apple’. ~ Leo Apotheker, Hewlett Packard, 27 January 2011

In the PC world, with fewer ways of differentiating HP’s products from our competitors, we became number one; in the tablet world we’re going to become better than number one. We call it number one plus. ~ Eric Cador, Senior Vice President of the Personal Systems Group, Hewlett-Packard, 21 May 2011

Intel

iPad has come under additional pressure from Intel Bay Trail tablets. iPad’s future may hinge on whether ARM foundries can catch up to Intel. ~ Mark Hibben, Seeking Alpha, 30 April 2014

Apple’s A7 64 bit processor was a breakthrough last year, but this year Apple will face competition from Android phones running 64 bit Intel and Qualcomm processors. ~ 
Mark Hibben, Seeking Alpha, 20 June 2014

Microsoft

Apple iPhone Doomed To Failure — Windows Mobile 7 Plans For 2009 Leaked. ~ Mitchell Ashley, NetworkWorld, 11 January 2008

We are not at all worried. We think we’ve got the one mobile platform you’ll use for the rest of your life. They are not going to catch up. ~ Scott Rockfeld, Microsoft Mobile Communications Group Product Manager, 1 April 2008

About 20 million devices will ship with Windows Mobile on it. We will outsell the iPhone. ~ Robbie Bach, Microsoft, 8 June 2008

7 Reasons Why The Windows 7 Phone Is THE iPhone Killer. ~ Jamie Riddell, CEO of Digital Tomorrow Today, 16 March 2010

100910_msft_buries_iphoneMicrosoft workers celebrated the release to manufacturing of Windows Phone 7 last week by parading through their Redmond campus with iPhone and BlackBerry hearses. ~ Microsoft Employees, Microsoft, 10 September 2010

For the first time since its introduction in 2007, Apple’s iPhone is going to take a backseat at AT&T as Ma Bell prepares a glitzy launch of three Microsoft Windows 7 phones. ~ Scott Moritz, TheStreet.com, 1 October 2010

thurrotttweet

The Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim the number 2 (replacing iOS) ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015. ~ Wayne Lam, IHS analyst, 19 Jan 2012

Having a secure Windows tablet that works with all the Windows applications — we’re hearing a lot of demand for that and we think that will be quite attractive. ~ Michael Dell, CEO, Dell, 9 March 2012

If Microsoft could ship today, Surface would send ripples across the tablet marketplace. ~ Joe Wilcox, Beta News, 19 June 2012

Author’s Note: The Titanic sent ripples too.

oprah

Author’s Note: Please be certain to check out the device used to send the above tweet.

Lookout Apple, Here Comes Microsoft: Surface Tablets Break Into Top-5 ~ Gary Krakow, The Street, 2 May 2013

Microsoft can better give what a lot of folks wanted in the initial iPad – a single product solution – and with a price/legacy software tradeoff that Apple doesn’t have in a similar product. ~ Rob Enderle, TG Daily, 30 September 2013

IDC reports that Windows Phone sales dropped by 9.4 percent in Q2 2014 compared to the same period last year. They’re now at just 2.5 percent.

And the Surface? $1.7 billion in losses…and counting.

Motorola

I believe that this device (Droid) is the best smartphone on the market today. ~ Sanjay Jha, Co-CEO, Motorola, 28 October 2009

iDon’t have a real keyboard.
iDon’t run simultaneous apps.
iDon’t take night shots.
iDon’t allow open development.
iDon’t customize.
iDon’t run widgets.
iDon’t have interchangeable batteries.
Everything iDon’t…Droid does.
Verizon, 18 October 2009

So I’ve got this DROID X. And I have to say, suddenly, I get it. I understand why this thing is surpassing the iPhone as we speak. ~ Paul Thorrott, Paul Thorrott’s SuperSite for Windows, 21 September 2010

iPad Killer: Truly, Really, I mean It. …Motorola’s new XOOM tablet is poised to become THE best non iPad tablet on the market when it ships later this year. ~ Jim Louderback, Huffington Post, 6 January 2011

Given what I’ve seen of Honeycomb and Motorola’s excellent tablet, Cupertino will have some serious catching up to do with their iPad 2. ~ J.P. Mangalindan, Fortune, 4 February 2011

Nokia

Nokia may hasten the end of the Apple revolution. ~ Kofi Bofah, Seeking Alpha , 30 October 2013

Palm

You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. ~ Major Palm investor & co-founder of Elevation Partners, Roger McNamee, 5 Mar 2009

The Palm Pre Will Be an iPhone Killer ~ Ross Catanzariti, PC World, 2 Apr 2009

We have a really good opportunity to become No. 2 in tablets fairly quickly. Possibly No. 1. ~ Jon Rubinstein, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Palm Global Business Unit, HP, 23 June 2011

Samsung

Imagine Samsung introducing revolutionary new lines of mobile phones and tablet computers with twice the battery life of Apple devices! Imagine colors more vivid than you have ever seen in any display before and half the thickness of Apple devices! The foregoing is not just a hyperbole; Samsung is pouring billions into making this happen. ~ Nigam Arora, Contributor, Forbes, 10 Feb 2012

Miscellaneous

Dvorak: ”I’m telling you, look at this product coming out of India called the Adam.”
Curry: “A-D-A-M?”
Dvorak: “Yeah.”
Curry: “And it’s a what it’s a pad?”
Dvorak: “It’s an iPad Killer. And I hate to use that term since the iPad is probably dead anyway.
No Agenda Podcast, Adam Curry & John C. Dvorak, 25 February 2010

Our tablet will be better than the iPad. ~ Chang Ma, VP Marketing, LG, 20 August 2010

(W)ith a new, potentially more compelling tablet coming — the Cisco Cius — the iPad’s success in the corporate world could be short-lived. ~ Don Reisinger, Channel Insider, 5 August 2010

We have an extreme focus on the innovation of LePad and LePhone because these products will dominate the future market. ~ Liu Chuanzhi, Lenovo, 27 January 2011

According to data from research firm BITG, checks at 150 Verizon Wireless stores indicate that in some cases the Thunderbolt is outselling the iPhone 4. …the iPhone may have met its match. ~ Ed Oswald, technologizer.com, 1 April 2011

Sony, Lenovo, Dell to Launch ‘iPad Killers’ in 2011. ~ Paul Thurrott, WindowsIT Pro, 28 April 2011

We will prove that it’s not who makes the tablet first who counts, but who makes it better. ~ Howard Stringer, CEO, Sony, 31 Aug 2011

All in all, I am impressed with the new phone (Atrix 2). And I think Apple has reason to finally be scared of the competition. ~ Cullen Roche, Seeking Alpha, 25 October 2011

Exhibit A: Xiaomi’s MiPad. Although we could easily focus on Microsoft’s recently launched Surface Pro 3, Xiaomi’s recently unveiled MiPad is an equally serious, if not more so, threat to the iPad Mini. ~ Andrew Tonner, The Motley Fool, 26 May 2014

That which does not kill me, makes me stronger ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

Lessons Learned And Unlearned

First, don’t call anything a “Killer”. That term has overstayed its welcome. There will be product killers in the future, but we’ll only know that after the fact, not before.

Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. ~ Andre Gide

Second, can we not just wait until a product exists before we compare it to an existing product? Seriously. What is our major malfunction?

Everything happens for a reason. Sometimes the reason is that you’re stupid and make bad decisions. ~ Bill Murray (@BiIIMurray)

Third, unreasonable people should not be reasoned with. They should be mocked.

You can always reason with a Troll. You can always reason with a barnyard animal, too, for all the good it does.

Never try to reason the prejudice out of a man. It was not reasoned into him, and cannot be reasoned out. ~ Sydney Smith

Reason is not automatic. Those who deny it cannot be conquered by it. Do not count on them. Leave them alone. ~ Ayn Rand

Apple Claim Chowder Series:

Introduction
Events
Killers
Cynicism
Product
Evolutionary Or Revolutionary
Business Models

Published by

John Kirk

John R. Kirk is a recovering attorney. He has also worked as a financial advisor and a business coach. His love affair with computing started with his purchase of the original Mac in 1985. His primary interest is the field of personal computing (which includes phones, tablets, notebooks and desktops) and his primary focus is on long-term business strategies: What makes a company unique; How do those unique qualities aid or inhibit the success of the company; and why don’t (or can’t) other companies adopt the successful attributes of their competitors?

786 thoughts on “Apple Claim Chowder: Killers”

  1. I am constantly amazed at how much people are willing and adamant about focusing on things that just don’t matter.

    Joe

  2. Most of these ‘killer’ predictions have one thing in common, a complete disregard for the user experience delivered by Apple’s vertical integration and curated ecosystem, which by the way has taken Apple decades to build. Maybe that’s the disconnect between nerds and normal people, nerds think the user experience Apple delivers really doesn’t make any difference, so they ignore it in any analysis of Apple vs whatever.

    1. “Most of these ‘killer’ predictions have one thing in common, a complete disregard for the user experience…” – Space Gorilla

      I talk about that in “Apple Claim Chowder: Product”. It should be published tommorow (Wednesday).

  3. This exercise is a bit pointless:half of those quotes are from people with money in the game… hence PR.

    Should we make a compendium of all of Apple’s “Magic” and “best ever !” quotes ?

    1. “This exercise is a bit pointless:half of those quotes are from people with money in the game”

      Fair enough. Now, given that you say a lot of the same kinds of things about Apple, what’s your excuse? Are you admitting you’re a paid troll?

      1. Most of those things are about as ridiculous as Apple’s own hype, I wouldn’t say any of this.
        I’m less of a troll than you.
        I’m certainly not paid. Are you ? Do you have Apple stock or products ?

        1. Hmm, you’d never say anything like the comments in the article eh? Let’s examine a few of your past comments (I’ve got ten minutes and Google and mostly Asymco):

          “in the face of Android tablets that are usually markedly cheaper (especially with more storage for more sophisticated users, and at the low end), offer more varied specs (pen, battery, form factor, phone, multi-windowing…)…there’s very little an iPad can do an Android can’t, and a lot Androids can do an iPad can’t”

          “iPad in particular suffers from several issues. It’s 2-3 times as expensive as Android tablets for vanishingly few exclusive capabilities”

          “iPad has mostly stayed put while the competition was moving rapidly.”

          “I’ve been trying to get Apple fans to tell me what an iPad can do that an Android can’t for ages. Music creation. That’s it.”

          “Oh, but you can on Android too. And get a better screen, more power, exchange/backup memory cards, even use a mouse”

          “High and rising unit share at lower value and even lower profit for Android is a major problem for Apple”

          “we’ll see in a couple of years if Apple hold on to their high share. I’m certain they won’t”

          “Current performance tests show similar or better CPU performance from lower-priced Android handsets. Apple do have better margins, and better GPU performance, but Android supports a lot more features.”

          “And that’s adding another obstacle for Apple: apart from being dependent on handset sales, they also need handsets *share* to make infrastructure for payments, physical tracking… worthwhile.”

          That’s a lot of tasty claim chowder that fits very well with this series of articles. You’ve been much quieter lately but you’ve talked plenty of Apple doom claim chowder smack. I was actually fairly kind to you, I didn’t copy/paste a lot of even more ridiculous claims you’ve made about Apple.

          I won’t be replying to whatever nonsense you post back, I just couldn’t resist the irony of your comment here. I grant you the last word.

          1. You do realize mine are mostly factual (and true) arguments, as opposed to the “magic”-like PR fluff that’s quoted in the article ? Which one of the above statements is untrue ?
            Also, you didn’t answer the question about *your* motives, after so elegantly questioning mine….

          2. Everyone paying attention knows you can’t spend the time you do disconnected from reality without either being terminally insane or paid, so giving you the benefit of the doubt = Paid.

      2. Space Gorilla, I would never take lightly J.W. Works inspiring piece, “Free at Last”. It is a most moving prayer set to music and never fails to raise the hair on my shoulders (having little to rise further north). And it can be applied to so many little and grand incidents in the life of an active living being.

        I am free from the troll, the lost mind, the nincompoopery of argue. To give answer, trivialises a valued moment where feet meet ground and awareness stretches out and across our ever being universe. Better the time be spent in any other honest adventure from chewing gum to contemplating a “Kirk epistle” on any subject.

        Now that was fun and what is much more fun is leaving the troll to play alone in the sandbox of his own making.

        The unanswered troll’s lonely despair is one of the few little ‘meanies’ I solemnly take pleasure in.
        Dang the power of those dangling prepositions.
        Namaste and care,
        mhikl

        1. You’re spot on, I just couldn’t resist the delicious irony of obart’s comment. I mostly let the trolls lie these days.

  4. Everything happens for a reason. Sometimes the reason is that you’re stupid and make bad decisions. ~ Bill Murray (@BiIIMurray)

    Sadly too many Tech writers know that a headline that includes “i_____ killer” will get more hits than just about anything else. Because of this they have no problem fulfilling Bill Murray’s explanation above.

  5. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. ~ Sir Arthur Conan Doyle as Sherlock Holmes, From “A Scandal in Bohemia”

    I believe this is the scientific method. Understanding the underlying principles in scientific investigation applies equally to the presentation of news and conjecture. If the news is listing facts, then the facts must first be studied and understood in individual detail and then the search for connections begins and hypotheses might be raised. Notice the plural in the last noun. Such is dearly missing in media today, and broad caste news especially. It is not even understood in our school systems, let alone in public discourse. It is not a cultural significant. When we ‘learn’ we are enveloped in propaganda and indoctrination. They may or mayn’t be intended. It just is expedience leaving off the time to exercise thinking. Few really enjoy exercise.

    Besides your choice of topic, Kirk, “Apple Claim Chowder” such sloppy inventive news is the bread and butter of mainstream tech, science and news media. Two examples standout and are important since many people fail to question, much less understand the problem of manufactured consent, in subtlety or by knock-on-head.
    The first example is any news or commentary on The Big Bang Theory. It is rarely noted that it is an Hypothesis in making, long time making. It is presumed, by the absence of such reminder, to be fact.
    The second is a case study of horrific news, important news, jumping to conclusions before many facts had even been found, before the facts could be articulated, much less allowing a second’s time for rumination. The incident cemented in our minds forever: 9/11. Talking heads laid out a catered choice of speculation before we even had chance to hear the facts much less have a moment of time to stand back from the shock, to take a breath, to come to understanding the inconceivable. A most vulnerable position to be in!
    Slam dunk in the hoop went the answers.

    John you write so well I could see you branching out into other areas of investigation. You exercise and set your dunks with analytical precision.
    Namaste and care,
    mhikl

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