There’s an Aesop’s Fable about a man, a boy and a donkey. In short form, the story goes like this: A man, his son, and their donkey set off for the market. At first, all three are walking but soon, someone criticizes the man for having a donkey but not riding on it. So he … Continue reading The man, the boy, the donkey and the iPhone
The focus on mobility and mobile platforms as the growth engines for the tech industry’s future is now so engrained into most people’s heads that it seems nearly blasphemous to suggest there could be faults in that thinking. But there’s a question that keeps popping into my mind—is the mobile app ecosystem really sustainable at … Continue reading Is the App Ecosystem Sustainable?
People really love to hate Apple. It should be considered a disorder at this point. ~ J. Gobert (@MrGobert) The Apple Watch may or may not fail, but the analysis of the Watch has already failed. People just cannot wait to pronounce judgment. They. Can. Not. Wait. There’s plenty of thoughtful analysis out there, but … Continue reading Apple Watch Claim Chowder
Microsoft and Google appear to be moving in different directions when it comes to their platforms and first party hardware, as I’ve written about before. However, in some respects they’re fighting the very same battle when it comes to platforms — they’re struggling to set apart their services on platforms increasingly controlled by others. Microsoft: … Continue reading Microsoft and Google’s platform problems
After spending more time digesting the Apple Watch announcement and talking to dozens of journalists, doing several radio shows, reading many articles, and doing two podcasts, I have some updated thoughts. If you have read many of my posts on smartwatches, namely this one and this one, you will know it has been a category … Continue reading Further Thoughts on the Apple Watch and Smart Watches in General
I always like to make my predictions AFTER the fact. Improves accuracy. Yet I’m still bound to get a few things wrong. You can only predict things after they have happened. ~ Eugene Ionesco Truth be told, I’m working on some massive articles regarding the Apple Event and they’re just not done. I simply haven’t … Continue reading I Shall Now Make My Apple Event Predictions!
By all accounts, it appears Microsoft is about to purchase the maker of Minecraft – Mojang. This seems like a head scratcher of a deal, and, without knowing the details of the strategy, parts of it are. However, what this deal signifies in my mind is a broader trend for the 800 lb gorillas in … Continue reading What Minecraft Means to Microsoft
Ben Bajarin and Benedict Evans discuss the announcements around Apple’s big event. We discuss everything from iPhones taking share of premium from Android, to payments and Apple’s business model advantage, and some high level thoughts on what smart watches may actually be. Some highlight quotes: “Apple is blessed by their developers.” – Benedict Evans “Apple … Continue reading Mobile Focused Podcast: Apple’s Doubling Down on the Ecosystem
A few weeks ago, partly in anticipation of Apple’s big event this week, I published a report on market prospects for smartwatches, and wrote a companion piece here on Tech.pinions on the topic. The title of the piece was “Grading on a Curve: Smartwatches in 2014” and it reflected my frustrations with smartwatches as they … Continue reading Apple Watch will finally move the needle on smartwatches
With the new iPhone lineup, Apple has addressed every major screen size base for smartphones. What they have not addressed is every price point — unnecessary given Apple’s strategy. My read is the impact of Apple addressing premium (phones over $400) Android smartphones primary differentiating factor, larger screen sizes, this will in turn dramatically impact … Continue reading Global Implications of the iPhone Lineup on the Smartphone Market
Over the past few years, Apple has been building a loyal user base. Zero sum game analysis of market share is irrelevant to the market dynamics playing out in mobile. So when it relates to Apple, my analysis centers on two fundamental buckets. One bucket is, “What is Apple doing to add compelling, useful, and … Continue reading Apple Payments and Smart Watches: Just the Beginning
The best way to defeat the iPhone is to create a superior alternative to the app ecosystem. With widgets, notifications, continuity and inter-app processes in iOS 8, Apple did just that. Woe to Android, Windows Phone and anyone who hopes to see Apple falter this decade. Unless, of course, I’m completely wrong. Perhaps there’s some amazing technology … Continue reading I Was Wrong And The iPhone 5c Is Still A Failure
With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much. Business Models No one gets more bad advice than does Apple. Apple went from near-bankruptcy to nearly the largest company on earth, … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Business Models
As we lead up to this years “main event,” I wanted to share some initial points underscoring my read that there is unprecedented demand for Apple’s iPhone this holiday quarter and beyond. Major Upgrade Cycle: This has been the source of many analysts’ upside, but I think it may even be larger than many realize. … Continue reading Unprecedented iPhone Demand
With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much. Evolutionary Or Revolutionary The iPhone and the iPad have received a lot of criticism for being evolutionary, not revolutionary. I take strong … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Evolutionary Or Revolutionary
In my continual analysis of Samsung for many in the industry, I have frequently pointed out the fundamental issues that have led to their current struggles. I had a friend remind me that, over two years ago, I gave a presentation to his VC firm where I pointed out Samsung would face struggles. He reminded … Continue reading How to Turn Around Samsung
With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much. Product Apple’s products receive a lot of criticism and there’s certainly nothing wrong with that. Some of the criticism seems unfair to … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Product
With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much. Cynicism All companies suffer from the slings and arrows of outrageous criticism. However, some companies seem to suffer more than their unfair … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Cynicism
With an Apple Event fast approaching, I’m reviewing critiques of past Apple Events to see how accurate they were. Turns out, not very. Critique is needed and welcome. Repeated errors? Not so much. Killers There is a long, sordid history of products being introduced as iPod, iPhone, and iPad Killers. You know the deal. Product … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Killers
Apple has scheduled an Event for Tuesday, September 9, 2014. Apple’s Events attract critics the way a trailer park attracts tornados. Good analysis and insightful critiques are expected and welcome, however many critics merely repeat the same discredited arguments over and over and over again. Some people simply never learn from their mistakes. Which reminds … Continue reading Apple Claim Chowder: Introduction
I have been publicly doubting the existence of the 5.5 inch iPhone for some time. I promised many on Twitter I would share my overall thesis on the category so here it is. Starting from the data points, we know several things. In the USA, phablet sales are quite small. Our estimates have the active … Continue reading My Phablet Skepticism Thesis
On Tuesday night, TechCrunch’s Alex Wilhelm asked on Twitter: If you were Microsoft/Google/Apple what company would you buy? — Alex Wilhelm (@alex) August 27, 2014 It was late and I fired off a quick response but I thought it was a question interesting enough to be worth thinking and writing about here in more depth. So, for … Continue reading Who Apple, Google and Microsoft Should Acquire Next
The latest round of company quarterly financial results illuminate three trends in the device market: Apple continues to generate record profits largely due to growing iPhone sales (iPad sales are slowly declining, Macs are growing, iPod sales are mostly gone, and Apple’s services revenues are growing) Samsung’s profits are steadily declining (though from such a … Continue reading Mac vs. PC All Over Again
The sharing economy promises the potential for riches, personal empowerment, new modes of work, and fear, the kind of fear that swells from a livelihood dependent upon algorithms, star ratings, and the feedback of strangers. When we imagined the future, certainly starting from the point when the smartphone was born, few of us expected a … Continue reading The Unbearable Loneliness Of The Sharing Economy
Every now and then I try out a variety of smartwatches. The latest I am putting through its paces is one based on Google’s own Android Wear platform. I keep hoping I’ll crack the nut and discover something new that may explain why this particular product might be successful. I’m still skeptical, but perhaps I … Continue reading Dear Smartwatch, thanks for the notification, now what?
